Official: Over 1.7 million active subs, 2 + mil sold

[Starglide]

I can't believe some of the responses. Why are you here if you want the game to fail?

 

I hope this holds true and it gives them less things to worry about and more content to fix/develop.

[ItchyThePenguin]

no the vast majority of the 1.7 million are people who have past their first month.

 

We know this because the vast majority of the game was sold Before Dec 31st. We can look at the sales figures and see that.

 

So yes there are some a small portion probably less then 25% of the 1.7 million active accoutns that have not yet passed their free month.

 

Oh, I'm sure. You're probably right. Let's just say, for the sake of argument, that 10% of people are on their 30 free days. 10% of 1.7M works out to 170,000 people. Now, again, let's pretend that after 30 days all 170,000 decide not to re-sub (I can't imagine why!). That brings active subs, excluding the number of people who purchased the game and just started playing, to 1.53M paying subs (which, by the way, out of ~2M units is still really impressive). Now, of course, you could argue that the number of people who join the game will outweigh, or at least offset, the number of people who quit. But I'm not trying to say these numbers are a poor representation. They're probably just not as accurate as they will be in a few months.

[GnatB]

Okay, let me check this up

 

You really think that the CEO of EA called Bioware and asked at 9:00am today a figure of the active subs ? Because that's what you seem to think about the ''today'' figure.

 

Why not? Whole process is presumably computerized anyways. For all you know there's a little electronic ticker in the cafeteria at BioWare HQ that counts the exact number of active subs to the second. Subtracting one whenever some users clicks that "cancel" button on the website, adding one whenever some user finishes putting in his CC #.

 

and saying 1.7 million leaves a LOT of room for leeway, so can be off by a few ten thousands either way.

[LordTie]

Numbers do not lie people. They are what they are numbers. Read into as you want. Just like Blizzard never had near 10 million subs also. I believe 1.7 million is a realistic number.

[knightblaster]

Yes we do know.

 

http://www.vgchartz.com/game/31584/star-wars-the-old-republic/Global/

 

Week Ending Week Weekly Change Total

24th December 2011 1 1,486,862 N/A 1,486,862

31st December 2011 2 326,312 -78.1% 1,813,174

07th January 2012 3 115,900 -64.5% 1,929,074

14th January 2012 4 70,621 -39.1% 1,999,695

21st January 2012 5 61,708 -12.6% 2,061,403

 

Means that 1,8 millions purchase the game in the first 2 weeks and they will be paying or left the game. The other 250k are still on their free month.

 

The vast mojoritity is now paying no doubt.

 

That's interesting, and may be true, but I was just talking about the actual statements from EA.

[Jimer_Lins]

I'm calling BS on a thriving game with 1.7M active subs. The game has around 200 servers and supposedly 1.7M subs so that an estimated 8500 players per server. So if your server has 8500 active you should see at least 1500 in fleet during prime time. I hear heavy pop servers have like 300 in fleet at most during prime time. The numbers just don't add up something is not right. 1.7 I highly doubt it. If they have 1m active i would honestly be surprised.

 

That only works if all of them are playing at the same time and the same faction, which is not true. Several people posted very clear and convincing math upthread showing why populations are perceived to be low.

[OkuKeelus]

So you think he is saying that the figures are as of today but are really from weeks ago because it took that long to get them??

 

This board is a laugh a minute.

Weeks? Who knows. 1 or 2 I'd guess, yes.

 

Because unlike most people here, I've actually worked with several organizations the size of BW, and nobody from upper management in companies those sizes, is going to go on stage and spout numbers he just got, from Joe the IT-guy who pulled a database query, over the phone 5 minutes before ( hell, it took them what, a week or two to get that LOL optimization "guide" approved to post it here? ).

 

Do you think these people actually do their own presentations? That the slides aren't coming from multiple people within the company? And that the different people who provided those slides and numbers didn't in turn work with other people to make sure the information was correct, and more importantly, presented in a way that puts the best possible spin on the situation, without outright lying?

 

Nobody is just giving you raw numbers, which didn't go through all the checks and balances in the organisation.

 

It's not like 1-2 weeks will change the numbers substantially. 1.7m doesn't drop to say 1.3m in that period.

Edited February 2, 2012 by OkuKeelus

[Abriael]

I'm calling BS on a thriving game with 1.7M active subs. The game has around 200 servers and supposedly 1.7M subs so that an estimated 8500 players per server. So if your server has 8500 active you should see at least 1500 in fleet during prime time. I hear heavy pop servers have like 300 in fleet at most during prime time. The numbers just don't add up something is not right. 1.7 I highly doubt it. If they have 1m active i would honestly be surprised.

 

I'm calling BS on you. First of all, your numbers are way off. Secondly, numbers given during an official earning call of a publicly traded company are legally binding. Falsifying them is a federal criminal offense as it could lead to stock market speculation.

 

Ergo. The numbers are real and you have no base or evidence to state the contrary. Simple.

Edited February 1, 2012 by Abriael

[Sparklehorse]

So now the haters think EA is lying in their financial reports.

 

Well it's either that or admit they were wrong.

 

It's really really hard for some people to admit they were wrong.

[XOrionX]

LOUD NOISES!!! You all make me want to smash my face repeatedly into a cheese grater.

 

MMORPG Official forums are such a joke.

 

INB4 - Why are you here then?

[Dezzi]

And the problem with that is that you're stating the obvious and by doing so implying that we were interpreting the numbers as having more meaning than that. We weren't. The game has a lot of subs right now, which bodes well. That's all. Besides, most of this whole thread was taken up trying to explain to people that he was indeed referring to current numbers, not a month ago....which they wanted to believe so they could go on thinking that "January must have been where all the real ragequitting took place, so it's still a big fail." Right now, with current numbers, you simply can't call it a fail yet, which makes all the whiners and ragequitters very uncomfortable and they're desperately seeking a rationalization for continuing to believe that SWTOR is a failure right this second. NUmbers don't support that. Will it prove to have longevity? Only time will tell.

 

Obvious for you maybe, with your big words and chest-pounding.

 

You reiterate my own point: Nothing about these figures proves success or failure, yet there are people in this thread clamoring to disagree...

 

"Yay the game is amazing! Shut up haters and trolls!"

 

or

 

"Clearly lies from the corporate money handlers. Game is fail."

 

I'm trying to silence both crowds simultaneously and make more room for sensible people to discuss the topic at hand.

 

So again, I want to know what about my post was so argumentative that you had to jump on it?

Edited February 1, 2012 by Dezzi

[SoupyNuggs]

I'm calling BS on a thriving game with 1.7M active subs. The game has around 200 servers and supposedly 1.7M subs so that an estimated 8500 players per server. So if your server has 8500 active you should see at least 1500 in fleet during prime time. I hear heavy pop servers have like 300 in fleet at most during prime time. The numbers just don't add up something is not right. 1.7 I highly doubt it. If they have 1m active i would honestly be surprised.

 

Your figures assume that every player in that 8500 per server average is playing and no one has school/work/families/lives.

 

Let's say at peak hours, a server with 8000 active subs (which I will label as server x) sees 1/2 of its pop online. Lets then assume that on this server x, for simplicity, faction balance is 1:1. In other words, there are 4000 players online, 2000 on republic. Let's now assume that out of these 2000 players, 1/10 of them are on the fleet. That's 200 players on the fleet.

 

Not so hard to believe anymore, is it?

[CadaKai]

I'm calling BS on you. First of all, your numbers are way off. Secondly, numbers given during an official earning call of a publicly traded company are legally binding. Falsifying them is a federal criminal offense as it could lead to stock market speculation.

 

Ergo. The numbers are real and you have no base or evidence to state the contrary. Simple.

 

the idiots numbers were assuming all 1.7 million people log in at the same time.

 

His argument is foolish at best

[Nemmar]

I'm calling BS on a thriving game with 1.7M active subs. The game has around 200 servers and supposedly 1.7M subs so that an estimated 8500 players per server. So if your server has 8500 active you should see at least 1500 in fleet during prime time. I hear heavy pop servers have like 300 in fleet at most during prime time. The numbers just don't add up something is not right. 1.7 I highly doubt it. If they have 1m active i would honestly be surprised.

 

I call BS on you rationale. Number of subs does not equal number of people playing every day in the game. Also "i hear" has strong factual basis.

Lets also count only the people in the fleet standing there doing nothing and lets forget the other who are actually playing the game on flashpoints, PvP and raids. No, really lets do that. Cause its so much simpler to the mind of someone who knows his stuff.

[knightblaster]

I'm calling BS on a thriving game with 1.7M active subs. The game has around 200 servers and supposedly 1.7M subs so that an estimated 8500 players per server. So if your server has 8500 active you should see at least 1500 in fleet during prime time. I hear heavy pop servers have like 300 in fleet at most during prime time. The numbers just don't add up something is not right. 1.7 I highly doubt it. If they have 1m active i would honestly be surprised.

 

When the game was in the first couple of heavily active weeks it was said to have ~300k concurrent users. That means the peak would average, for 213 servers, around 1400. Spread among zones, alts, and time zones. It is a very credible number, given that we are looking at 10-20% less than that (because that 300k peak user number was when everyone who bought was playing). You wouldn't see 300 on the fleet. Many, many people are not 50 yet, many have multiple alts they are playing at once, and many play ~10 hours per week. It's a very credible number, really.

[DaxRendar]

I'm calling BS on a thriving game with 1.7M active subs. The game has around 200 servers and supposedly 1.7M subs so that an estimated 8500 players per server. So if your server has 8500 active you should see at least 1500 in fleet during prime time. I hear heavy pop servers have like 300 in fleet at most during prime time. The numbers just don't add up something is not right. 1.7 I highly doubt it. If they have 1m active i would honestly be surprised.

 

Except for a few "fun facts" for ya:

1) Most of the population is still leveling and have not reached 50 (per BW)

2) Many who did reach 50 are now leveling Alts to explore other Stories (personal observation based on Legacy Named Characters I see running around)

 

This isn't WoW - most of the population isn't sitting in their capital city furiously stroking their e-peens while waiting for their LFG/LFR to pop - shocking that a game doesn't have to work that way I know

[Balrizangor]

I can't believe some of the responses. Why are you here if you want the game to fail?

 

I hope this holds true and it gives them less things to worry about and more content to fix/develop.

 

This is what I do not understand either, if a person hates the game, wants\thinks it is going to fail, why are they still here playing/posting/trolling?

 

If you hate it, quit, if you like it, sub up and play. I am mystified by the number of people that seem soooo hopeful that the game will fail. Is it just some need within them that, if it does fail (which, technically, it is not considered a failure at this point since they are already making profit from it and making profit != a failure by any company standards) they want to be able to come back to these forums and post "See!! I told you it would fail !! See how cool I am !!!"

[andrelle]

None of these "official" reports actually matter when you login at 7pm and see 4 people on your planet.

 

If it walks like a duck and talks like one, too, well....maybe those numbers are a little more marketing than you would like to think.

[Ansultares]

Box sales are largely unimportant in the MMO market, where subscriptions carry the game's development.

Actually, I think the new push is to move boxes, shake out the population so that only the fanbois, who will accept any level of garbage, are left, and ride whatever old-school level of subscriptions they'll float at from then on.

 

That's why this niche game wasn't marketed as such. There's a reason why this game feels like a SPRPG with online capabilities.

 

This isn't WoW - most of the population isn't sitting in their capital city furiously stroking their e-peens while waiting for their LFG/LFR to pop - shocking that a game doesn't have to work that way I know

Vanilla didn't work that way. Edited February 1, 2012 by Ansultares

[Blotter]

Obvious for you maybe, with your big words and chest-pounding.

 

You reiterate my own point: Nothing about these figures proves success or failure, yet there are people in this thread clamoring to disagree...

 

"Yay the game is amazing! Shut up haters and trolls!"

 

or

 

"Clearly lies from the corporate money handlers. Game is fail."

 

I'm trying to silence both crowds simultaneously and make more room for sensible people to discuss the topic at hand.

 

So again, I want to know what about my post was so argumentative that you had to jump on it?

 

Right, they do not prove long term success or failure, but they do disprove failure as of right now and strongly suggest success. In any event, I think we've been agreeing and arguing anyway haha...silly.

[Dezzi]

Actually with your last statement I removed that thought of you passing judgement and my last repsonse, I thought, was to some degree aggreeing with you.

 

So you're saying that subscriptions are not the more important figure to be assessing when looking at an MMO's success or failure?

[TheSpeeGamers]

Posting again for great truthiness!

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ea-beats-targets-on-sales-gain-forecast-off-2012-02-01?link=MW_story_featstor

 

 

 

Emboldened for emphasis.

 

I see what you are trying to do here, steal the thunder and make the sub numbers look worse. However, the majority of those numbers are already paid subscribers and out of the ones that haven't the majority will stay based on the statistics already pulled. I would say at the lowest it would dip down to lets say....1.3m? Would you not say that is fair? !.3 m is very solid and GASP, the best start for an mmo in NA.

 

I hope that bioware pumps out the content and they will need to to grow or even sustain their current subscribers. What was unheard of in terms of that other MMo *cough* WoW, was the rate it grew. I'm not sure any MMO outside of a true successor to WoW could ever match that. You don't have to match that to be successful though and I think that's where most people are missing the boat. If TOR is at 2 subscribers million by next December, that would be really great and an excellent business model for them. I think they can do it but it's just sad to see so many detractors and people who genuinely want to see the game fail.

[Hobnobb]

This goes hand in hand with the great user ratings the game has received.

 

http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=259406

[Balrizangor]

So you're saying that subscriptions are not the more important figure to be assessing when looking at an MMO's success or failure?

 

nope, the most important thing for a company and investors is, have we made back our investment + profit ....

[Drallbait]

Your figures assume that every player in that 8500 per server average is playing and no one has school/work/families/lives.

 

Let's say at peak hours, a server with 8000 active subs (which I will label as server x) sees 1/2 of its pop online. Lets then assume that on this server x, for simplicity, faction balance is 1:1. In other words, there are 4000 players online, 2000 on republic. Let's now assume that out of these 2000 players, 1/10 of them are on the fleet. That's 200 players on the fleet.

 

Not so hard to believe anymore, is it?

 

Yep, was going to post the same thing. And using half of the active subs online is an over estimate. It is probably more like 20% at peak times, 5-10% outside.

 

Concurrent connections != subscribers, it is always much smaller.

 

Face it folks, this game rocks and will continue to be around a long, long time. People will start to question what MMO really means - it doesn't have to mean "Just like WoW". Having a deep cinematicly-presented storyline, and making leveling a critical part of the game entices casual players.

Edited February 1, 2012 by Drallbait