ToR is a success, dont feed no trolls.

[vaknyuszi]

http://torwars.com/2012/05/23/open-tor-policy-the-trolled-republic/

 

 

Greetings once again, Star Wars fans, and welcome to another edition of Open TOR Policy, where I discuss issues of import and interest to our Star Wars: The Old Republic community. Today, I’m setting my sights on trolls, specifically those that contest our particular brand of spaced-based enjoyment is doomed to fail.

If you go to the SWTOR forums – and I’d advise a strong drink before you do – you’re going to see a whole host of threads aimed at convincing readers that STWOR is crashing – hard. “Subs Down 25%”, “Server Population is Dropping” and “Storm Preparation” are just a few examples. They point to seemingly incontrovertible evidence of a downward spiral, such as the fact that subs are down 25% to around 1.3 million and that while EA executives consider SWTOR to be in the “top 10” of their money-making franchises, it’s not in the top 5. Throw in a few words about the recent SWTOR layoffs, not-here-yet LFG tool, low server populations and PvP problems and you’ve got yourself a perfect sh#@-storm of forum woes.

 

To put it bluntly: the forums are a scary, scary, place. But are they right?

 

Let’s crunch some numbers. Most of mine are as real as any you’ll find in the forums – more so in some cases since they come from a place of common sense instead of energy drink and zesty Dorito-fuelled madness, but feel free to disagree (or disbelieve) as you so choose.

 

The highest reported number of subscribers for SWTOR thus far is 1.7 million, so that’s what I’ll start with, and assume that all 1.7 million of those players bought a legitimate copy for an average of $60 (I’m rolling in CE, DCE and regular boxes all in here) - that means $102 million in BioWare’s pockets at the get-go. We also know that subs have dropped to 1.3 million over the last few months, and so to err on the side of caution I’m going to assume that only 1 million players renewed their subs after the free month in December ran out, meaning four months at $15 per month for BioWare, or another $60 million, totaling $162 million made thus far. My numbers here aren’t perfect – they don’t take into account players who came late to the party or have paid for six-month subs, for example, or the free extra month some players were granted in April, but they’re a good baseline.

 

This $162 million isn’t pure profit, of course, since the game cost money to develop. BioWare never did release the actual tally, and I’ve heard everything from costs of $100 millon up to $300 million for the entire development cycle. My personal guess is around $150 million but even if the costs hit $200 million, the company has still made almost all of its money back. If subscribers stay steady at 1 million, BioWare makes $15 million a month and quickly heads into profitable territory, even taking into account overhead and the price of developing new content. In other words, the game is a success.

 

I know, I know – it’s not World of Warcraft. But guess what? Nothing is. WoW is an anomaly, one that showed up at just the right time with the right balance of hard core and casual gameplay and managed to push its way into the mainstream. Other MMOs have actually been successful in making money, both through the sub method and free to play (F2P) but none of them are WoW, and none of them will ever be. Boo-hoo.

 

It’s also worth noting that “mainstream” is a really loose term here, and while WoW enjoyed 12 million subs at the height of its popularity it’s a far cry from the over 70 million copies of Wii Sports sold when Nintendo’s latest console hit store shelves. One million is a decent number for SWTOR, no matter how high the bar set by WoW.

 

Right now, SWTOR is profitable, but it’s really no surprise to me that EA doesn’t consider it a top-5 moneymaker. With massive, yearly sports franchises and nearly-yearly FPS games on their ledger it doesn’t make sense to view BioWare’s outing as the best potential money-maker; the strength of an MMO lies in its longevity, not the number of copies it can sell at day one, and so far BioWare seems on the right track for developing desired and timely content.

 

Trolls will always poke out their heads, bent on convincing forum-goers that SWTOR is in desperate, hopeless trouble and that we should all abandon ship for WoW, Tera, Guild Wars 2 or some other “unnamed, revolutionary, fun, totally awesome MMO.” Don’t get me wrong – there are good threads on the forums, threads that try to address real issues or give credit where credit is due, but there’s also this odd slice of the player-base who are certain in their doomsday convictions, but wobbly on spelling and grammar.

 

We’ve become spoiled, I think, by the sheer volume of information available about every game out there, about every new IP or idea even before it hits the alpha testing phase. All too often the seeds of our opinions take root not on the basis of engaging gameplay or great story or anything we actually do but because of vitriolic or passionate forum posts, many full of suspect or patently misleading data.

 

Am I the ultimate authority here? Should you believe me, and no other SWTOR author? Hardly. Play the game, judge for yourself; decide if you want to keep playing, and paying.

 

Oh, and don’t feed the trolls.

 

creds to the original author at torwars

 

 

EDIT: i agree with those who say, that complaining is not trolling, i have never said i agree with every part of this article.

On the BF3 forum i was complaining all the time beacuse of the false marketing etc....

But we gotta admit that there are a lot of haters on the forums, not only here but on every forum who only use the forums they post in to generate hate.

Edited May 24, 2012 by vaknyuszi

[Darth_Rathus]

The best thread I've read on the TOR forums in a long time.

[BenjaminminU]

The best thread I've read on the TOR forums in a long time.

 

What he said. Too bad we can't just lay down some troll bait and burn them all.

[Iron_Lord]

If it is a success, why is my server dead?

[Kelenan]

If it is a success, why is my server dead?

 

yes so successful I can't play my level 50 at all because there is no PVP ques and noone to group for FP with. Yep great success.http://pc.gamespy.com/pc/guild-wars-2/1223692p1.html

[alement]

You bring up great points, but don't discount Quarterly Earnings reports, and EA's forecasts that were largely based around SWTOR. These are numbers that don't lie.

 

Click on the 6Month Chart - trading down nearly 50%

 

Article: EA beats Sales target, 'Star Wars' takes hit

 

Numbers don't lie. Roll on the Fatman server and take notice how many <50 characters there are, mainly because most of the SWTOR servers are dead and people had to reroll to even play the game. Once servers are merged and populations...exist... again, then I would imagine you would see the bleeding of subscriptions slow down, or maybe even rise a little. But the damage has been done. Cost cutting (aka layoffs) are now taking over to keep this game afloat on the development side. It's good that ToR still has 1million active users - that's higher than most games. Let's just hope this handicapped development team can right the ship, and we can all convince our friends to come back.

[grezgorz]

Assuming that the grammatical error in the title of your thread was intentional, I'd like to congratulate you on making it through one whole sentence before making another mistake. Instead of 'setting my sites', you should have typed 'setting my sights'. Have a nice day!

 

- Grezgorz the Grammar Nazi

[Leggomy]

Problem is just too many people spread out across too many servers. Hope they hurry up and do something about that. If they would simply do that one thing not only would they retain most people but a lot would return. I know quite a few who are waiting to resub for 1.3. Mainly for server transfers but even if server transfers arent ready release 1.3 with the LFG tool anyways. More delay means people start playing other games. GW2 is out June 26th according to my preorder email. I get to playing it I might not want to come back.

 

Get 1.3 out before the 26th of June or this game will lose a lot of subs.

[PlacidDragon]

To put it bluntly: the forums are a scary, scary, place. But are they right?

Yes and no. In the sense of "this game is a complete failure", its a no. In terms of its longevity (as in, "its dying"), thats somewhat more up for debate. I've not logged in for a few weeks, but people frequently report 90+ percent of servers being listed as light.. that should seriously be a VERY clear sign to anyone that its not a healthy thriving environment..

 

Let’s crunch some numbers. Most of mine are as real as any you’ll find in the forums – more so in some cases since they come from a place of common sense instead of energy drink and zesty Dorito-fuelled madness, but feel free to disagree (or disbelieve) as you so choose.

 

The highest reported number of subscribers for SWTOR thus far is 1.7 million, so that’s what I’ll start with, and assume that all 1.7 million of those players bought a legitimate copy for an average of $60 (I’m rolling in CE, DCE and regular boxes all in here) - that means $102 million in BioWare’s pockets at the get-go.

You forgot about Lucasarts in your "calculation".. im sure Mr. Lucas gets his fair share of the pie (i remember there was a lot of speculation prior to release about the only one profiting on all of this would be George Lucas, him laughing all the way to the bank, etc etc).. i cannot recall having seen any solid info on the deal though.. just rumors of him asking up towards of 30 percent of the profits for the use of the IP.

 

You also forgot about employees, of which Bioware had reportedly around 800 of working on SWTOR (someone said in a different thread). Now, i dont know how much they make, but for 2011, the average salary across the entire U.S. 'mainstream' games industry was $81,192.

 

Lets cut that to an even 50k just to be sure to err on the safe side, thats about 3.5 mill per month just in employee expenses. Then there are rent on locations, hardware, software and everything else they need.. server and connection expenses, and so on. You would be delutional to think that "every dollar that comes in is pure profit".

 

Granted, they just laid off a bunch of people, which in itself is very telling (while its normal to lay off people after finishing a project, James Ohlen said spesifically a few months ago that Bioware was commited, blah blah, how the team was going to stay together to ensure the quality going foward, etc etc.. well.. not so much

 

I sort of do take offense when you brand people as "energy drinking dorito eating sugar madness induced people", then present yourself as a "my numbers are better" person.. and then come up with this.... i mean, seriously

Edited May 24, 2012 by PlacidDragon

[Niv_Dralshya]

Not everyone who has a negative or disagreeing Opinion is a Troll OP, Some people have very valid criticisms and the irrational and constant rabid defending of Bioware and SWTOR early on is a major part of what drove so many people off I feel, as well as a huge part of why Bioware has been more or less blind to the vast majority of problems plaguing the game that continue to go unaddressed because their fanbase was so syncophantic that the devs started to think they could do no wrong.

 

Just saying. Be reasonable

[Zhauric]

Sorry, but that article is obviously slanted in favor of ToR and the numbers a bit off not to mention the goal is not lose more than 25% of your paying customers. They lost more than that. To answer the author's own thoughts on development the LA Times reported it cost $200 million for them to develop the game. He weighed his estimated profits against this with no thought of the current expenses that are going on the balance sheet right now which we do not know.

 

He also didn't account that they sold 2 million boxes and that dropped to 1.7 subscribers and then to the mythical 1.3. I say mythical because we would have to be gullible to believe that number accurate. It was reported by Bioware to be the subs as of April which means it included all those they gave the free month subscription and it also includes all of those on the free weekend trials that they offered per their site and per their current customers to give to friends. The article says IF the customer base stays at 1 million a profit can be made and that is true. But that's the problem. It is an IF and the current trend suggests completely the opposite of this. There is really no reason an investor would believe that suddenly the bleeding will stop because they have no reason to.

 

So chances are no, they have not really came to the point of netting a profit. And the most alarming thing is they lost more than 25% of those initial customers and are teetering on a 50% loss in retention if they have not hit that already. That is not a success and wasn't their aim. They intended on something more than this and if you think their shareholders are thinking this has been a success you're a bit delusional.

Edited May 24, 2012 by Zhauric

[Karabal]

I dont know what was more boring, the OP or the 10 minutes I spent on my dead server this morning.

[Goretzu]

 

You also forgot about employees, of which Bioware had reportedly around 800 of working on SWTOR (someone said in a different thread). Now, i dont know how much they make, but for 2011, the average salary across the entire U.S. 'mainstream' games industry was $81,192.

 

 

Wow that's pretty high (if I've done my conversions right) no wonder games cost so much these days.

Edited May 24, 2012 by Goretzu

[ShadowAxx]

The author(s) may have a great future in Political speech writing as it's a pretty good example of how to change the subject and attack the messenger(s).

 

Many of the "troll" complaints, while uncomfortable for lovers of the game, are unfortunately accurate. Certainly one could argue addressing any/all of the complaints may simply be a matter of time. But unfortunately, as a player of the game RIGHT NOW, the impact of problems is quite real, frustrating and worthy of comment.

 

If there is excessive player frustration, which breeds contention and over reaction, this is hardly the sole fault of the "troll" players.

Edited May 24, 2012 by ShadowAxx

[PlacidDragon]

Wow that's pretty high (of I've done my conversions right) no wonder games cost so much these days.

Found the info here :

 

http://gamasutra.com/view/news/167355/Game_Developer_reveals_2011_Game_Industry_Salary_Survey_results.php

[The-Vortex]

yes so successful I can't play my level 50 at all because there is no PVP ques and noone to group for FP with. Yep great success.http://pc.gamespy.com/pc/guild-wars-2/1223692p1.html

 

And why did you feel the need to post that link? If anything that just proves the OPs point of people trying to convince everyone this game is dead and go play the "next big thing". I'd be willing to bet everything I own on the fact that this exact same thing will happen there eventually.

 

Yes server xfers are needed, they know this. You don't have to keep screaming for them, just be patient for once.

 

/endrant

[islander]

If it is a success, why is my server dead?

 

yep. no trolling here, just facts. The forums are more active then my server, and for months now, Bioware has been factually incapable of resolving the issue.

 

Now? It's almost too late. The horses are pretty much out of the barn.

[mokkh]

I happen to agree with the bulk of what the author contends. But it's ironic that a blog from another site about not feeding the trolls on this forum has been put into general discussion here and will inevitably feed any trolls who come across it. Just sayin'.

[Holden_Dissent]

And why did you feel the need to post that link? If anything that just proves the OPs point of people trying to convince everyone this game is dead and go play the "next big thing". I'd be willing to bet everything I own on the fact that this exact same thing will happen there eventually.

 

Yes server xfers are needed, they know this. You don't have to keep screaming for them, just be patient for once.

 

/endrant

 

Doesn't matter. They'll add in transfers, the dead server cries will go away, and then they'll move to the "next big thing to gripe about"

 

The forum mods are way too lenient here.

[Gamstun]

a troll post claiming not to feed the trolls....

 

wait i just did what it said not to do.....

 

sorry but going from 1.7 to 1.3 million subscribers, while STILL COUNTING the free month people is no where near a "success"

 

my entire guild (over 20 of us) left SWTOR over the past two months, some success....

 

imp fleet on my server used to be over 300, it's lucky to break 100 now, some success.....

 

but go ahead and listen to a SWTOR FAN SITE, i mean they have no bias or interest in the success of SWTOR, right?

 

oh wait, remind me again what happens to their website when SWTOR fails utterly.....

[hulkweazel]

LOL, so after all that math, you reason that BW broke even. And that's a success?

 

I'm sure BW is certainly rejoicing that a title 5 years in the making, costing hundreds of millions of dollars, broke even.

 

Which is why they are now doing massive, unplanned layoffs, right?

[Blistrich]

"Look guys! Star Wars: The Old Cheese is profitable! That means it's a good game, right? Right?"

 

I love this fanboy crap. Instead of accepting the fact that this is a Warcraft cut & paste in space (and a shoddy one at that) which is also poorly run (resulting in a lackluster subscriber base), let's just call everyone who dislikes/has an issue with/is disappointed by this game "trolls" and go back to our caves where everything is fine and SWTOR is a fun and interesting game to play.

 

SWTOR is about as fun and interesting as my foot. It's a cash grab and an absolute joke. Get over it.

 

There, now let the troll flames commence.

Edited May 24, 2012 by Blistrich

[vaknyuszi]

Problem is just too many people spread out across too many servers. Hope they hurry up and do something about that. If they would simply do that one thing not only would they retain most people but a lot would return. I know quite a few who are waiting to resub for 1.3. Mainly for server transfers but even if server transfers arent ready release 1.3 with the LFG tool anyways. More delay means people start playing other games. GW2 is out June 26th according to my preorder email. I get to playing it I might not want to come back.

 

Get 1.3 out before the 26th of June or this game will lose a lot of subs.

 

yes i think the "spreading out" is because of the launch cos most of the servers were full and ppl rolled their first chars on empty or low populated servers , wich after a time lost active players, ofc after server merge or transfer this problem will have been fixed i think, GET YOUR HOPES UP!

[vaknyuszi]

Not everyone who has a negative or disagreeing Opinion is a Troll OP, Some people have very valid criticisms and the irrational and constant rabid defending of Bioware and SWTOR early on is a major part of what drove so many people off I feel, as well as a huge part of why Bioware has been more or less blind to the vast majority of problems plaguing the game that continue to go unaddressed because their fanbase was so syncophantic that the devs started to think they could do no wrong.

 

Just saying. Be reasonable

 

ye i see your point, but it is better to do something later than never aint i right?

[TUXs]

To put it bluntly: the forums are a scary, scary, place. But are they right?

 

Let’s crunch some numbers.

 

It’s also worth noting that “mainstream” is a really loose term here.

 

One million is a decent number for SWTOR, no matter how high the bar set by WoW.

 

Right now, SWTOR is profitable

 

Trolls will always poke out their heads

 

We’ve become spoiled.

So...that's it? We won? We can all go home now?

 

LIVE servers and people who PLAY this game know what is REALLY going on...and it's not pretty. Profitable or not, the game is dying.