Subs down 25%

[Irilith]

http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?p=4291988#post4291988

 

Embrace the horror. ;p

 

At first he states that EA will keep SW:Tor running as long as they earn money with it. You really don't need an "expert" to tell you that. He doesn't seem to understand that as soon as the marginal return drops beyond a critical point, the marginal cost will be cut down accordingly and the quality of the game will suffer from that.

 

We know that 1 million subs is the first critical point of subnumbers and 500k is necessary to break even. EA doesn't do break even, they will cut expenses way more early. And 1 million is not far away...

 

The second part is full of speculations of why EA may even be ok with low subnumbers at this point but in this whole post i can't find one single indication of why SW:Tor has a bright future ahead of it. Only indications of why EA will still earn money.

Edited May 10, 2012 by Irilith

[Squatdog_nz]

From the shareholder report:

 

"Let us give you two additional points of perspective as it relates to our current subscriber base

and its impact on our fiscal 13 guidance. First, the current number of active subscribers, 1.3

million, is very consistent with the original assumptions we made when we acquired BioWare in

2008. Second, while this franchise is very profitable, it only represents a mid-single digit

percent of our total profitability in fiscal 13. "

 

 

From an interview with EA Games president Frank Gibeau in 2008:

 

""Both EA and LucasArts have confirmed to VG247 that the target for BioWare’s newly announced Star Wars: The Old Republic is to make an MMO with a larger userbase than World or Warcraft.

 

“We have very high expectations for this,” said EA Games president Frank Gibeau, speaking this week at LucasArts’ HQ in San Francisco. “Just look at the base of Star Wars fans, plus what BioWare can do. Trust me: we want to win. EA’s reputation is for wanting to win. This is going to be a powerful category and there’s lots of ways to compete in this category. [blizzard] created a much larger opportunity for everybody else, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to stay that way.”

 

LucasArts online boss Tom Nichols concurred, saying that the firm is banking on The Old Republic’s storytelling component to bust through WoW’s 11 million subs record.

http://www.vg247.com/2008/10/24/wow-is-the-target-with-the-old-republic-says-lucasarts-and-ea/

 

 

LOL!

[Alkiii]

From the shareholder report:

 

"Let us give you two additional points of perspective as it relates to our current subscriber base

and its impact on our fiscal 13 guidance. First, the current number of active subscribers, 1.3

million, is very consistent with the original assumptions we made when we acquired BioWare in

2008. Second, while this franchise is very profitable, it only represents a mid-single digit

percent of our total profitability in fiscal 13. "

 

 

From an interview with EA Games president Frank Gibeau in 2008:

 

""Both EA and LucasArts have confirmed to VG247 that the target for BioWare’s newly announced Star Wars: The Old Republic is to make an MMO with a larger userbase than World or Warcraft.

 

“We have very high expectations for this,” said EA Games president Frank Gibeau, speaking this week at LucasArts’ HQ in San Francisco. “Just look at the base of Star Wars fans, plus what BioWare can do. Trust me: we want to win. EA’s reputation is for wanting to win. This is going to be a powerful category and there’s lots of ways to compete in this category. [blizzard] created a much larger opportunity for everybody else, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to stay that way.”

 

LucasArts online boss Tom Nichols concurred, saying that the firm is banking on The Old Republic’s storytelling component to bust through WoW’s 11 million subs record.

http://www.vg247.com/2008/10/24/wow-is-the-target-with-the-old-republic-says-lucasarts-and-ea/

 

 

LOL!

 

I honestly feel that if they used something other than the Hero Engine, this game would have had much more success in terms of this report. Would they have beaten WoW, more than likely not, but I think they would have had a larger impact.

 

I love this game, but they're just too slow at fixing problems and I think that it is getting to the point where people just toss their hands in the air and say, "I give up ... I'm playing something else." Something I have done and am extremely happy that I did so.

[JustTray]

LMAO@your feeble appeal to authority...especially when this 'authority' happens to be the weasel words of EAs PR department.

 

SWTOR has lost 400k subscriptions, representing nearly a quarter of it's subscription base. Within 5 months of the game's release.

 

EA has admitted that this figure includes trial accounts and promotional gametime, including the month's free gametime that by SHEER COINCIDENCE was handed out immediately prior to the quarterly report. Meanwhile, Activision only includes paid WoW accounts active within the last 30 days.

 

These are the facts.

 

Thank you. I was going to say this.

 

1. Logical Fallacy appeal to authority/experience.

 

2.The person you are referring to makes their argument based off of a literal interpretation of Bioware's PR statement, which by it's own admission, SWTOR isn't even in their top 5 games.

 

When the free 30 days are up, you will see just how badly this game is doing. Hint - terrible financial loss for EA, which is why their stock has been getting hammered.

[rakuenCallisto]

Oh goodie 23-25% loss - I just can't wait to see just how low this will go I wait with such eager anticipation. EA is going down - their stocks have plumeted to an all time low - makes me feel so good to see such an evil company getting their come-uppins And when they finally do tank and have to file for bankruptsy and go out of business, all across the galaxy there will be great celebrations like when the emperor was defeated... EA's time has come...

 

This is so awesome.

[Goretzu]

Most negative threads contain nonsense based upon the wisdom of a grade level 8. This is not even a suggestion forum, and once again I will state that I have no idea why the continue to keep this playpen up and running when they have spacific boards to cover all aspects of the game beyond it.

 

As anyone in business knows, a "suggestion" forum is where you back heel stuff to keep things tidy, not where Devs go looking for ideas or what is wrong with the game.

 

Beyond that, do any of us think, for a second, that they do not already know and fully understand the issues and challenges before them? Do we believe their business plan, action plans, are not already well formed, reviewed, set into motion by experts in their respective fields? Do so few here have any experience in business that they would assume that this game is, that this amount of revenue are governed by happenstance, and directed by random poster A on the internet?

 

Any one can have a business plan..... but having a business plan doens't make it a good one.

 

Clearly Bioware EAs is at least reasonably flawed assuming they weren't aiming for ~50% retention from sales by this point.

 

Do we further not understand that most of those "reasons" stated by the absolutely tiny minority of players here sit ultimately low on the priority list (load times for example), so that the items required to maintain the bulk of the player base, while preparing for the long term lifespan can be accomplished more rapidly?

 

Subs are subs, it's much easier to keep a customer than it is to get them back after you've honked them off.

 

It is very rare that we see something of worth on this particular board, which is inundated with more conjecture, fallacy, nonsense then I have ever had the pleasure to experience. ;p

Pretty much every problem with SWTOR has come up here again and again. The same reasons people that have never been to the forum state as they quit the game.

[Phlem]

EA just released their earnings and Star Wars subs are down 25% for the quarter. This can't be a good thing. Can we get server mergers ASAP?

 

Added link

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ea-sales-beat-targets-star-wars-takes-hit-2012-05-07?siteid=yhoof2

 

WoW has dipped below 9 million subs, and still dropping. That's almost a 50% loss in subs over the past year. On top of that I am willing to bet that over 50% of the remaining subs are people with multiple accounts.

 

25% is nothing in comparison to WoW's plummet. Yes 9 million is nothing to scoff at, but compared to the 15 million they had just after the last expansion went live its a pretty hefty drop.

[Frostvein]

WoW has dipped below 9 million subs, and still dropping. That's almost a 50% loss in subs over the past year. On top of that I am willing to bet that over 50% of the remaining subs are people with multiple accounts.

 

25% is nothing in comparison to WoW's plummet. Yes 9 million is nothing to scoff at, but compared to the 15 million they had just after the last expansion went live its a pretty hefty drop.

 

None of those numbers are even close to true.

[Zilkin]

WoW has dipped below 9 million subs, and still dropping. That's almost a 50% loss in subs over the past year. On top of that I am willing to bet that over 50% of the remaining subs are people with multiple accounts.

 

25% is nothing in comparison to WoW's plummet. Yes 9 million is nothing to scoff at, but compared to the 15 million they had just after the last expansion went live its a pretty hefty drop.

 

This. In reality WoW actually has less real people playing that SWTOR does.

[nartiuslightlord]

You can't call it a loss when most were people waiting on GW2/D3 or ex-Wow players who thought this would be Wow with laser guns.

 

Plus this game is made for adults who love starwars. You can't have same sex romances coming, and cutting peoples heads off, torture and murder like TOR has and expect kids to wanna keep playing it.

 

They love cute stuff like Po the kung-fu panda,rainbow bright ponies. so this game was not going to be for them anyways.

 

Game rocks get over your doom and gloom.

[Squatdog_nz]

WoW has dipped below 9 million subs, and still dropping. That's almost a 50% loss in subs over the past year. On top of that I am willing to bet that over 50% of the remaining subs are people with multiple accounts.

 

25% is nothing in comparison to WoW's plummet. Yes 9 million is nothing to scoff at, but compared to the 15 million they had just after the last expansion went live its a pretty hefty drop.

 

WoW is sitting on 10.2m subscribers, down from a lifetime peak of 12m in 2010.

 

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/activision-blizzard-announces-better-than-expected-first-quarter-2012-financial-results-150831155.html

[JustTray]

WoW has dipped below 9 million subs, and still dropping. That's almost a 50% loss in subs over the past year. On top of that I am willing to bet that over 50% of the remaining subs are people with multiple accounts.

 

25% is nothing in comparison to WoW's plummet. Yes 9 million is nothing to scoff at, but compared to the 15 million they had just after the last expansion went live its a pretty hefty drop.

 

None of this is remotely true.

 

Why do people insist on making up numbers to blindly, and poorly, defend this game?

 

Seriously, the ignorance levels are over 9000.

[Muskaan]

WoW has dipped below 9 million subs, and still dropping. That's almost a 50% loss in subs over the past year. On top of that I am willing to bet that over 50% of the remaining subs are people with multiple accounts.

 

25% is nothing in comparison to WoW's plummet. Yes 9 million is nothing to scoff at, but compared to the 15 million they had just after the last expansion went live its a pretty hefty drop.

 

Activision just release a sub number of 10.2 for this year to their share holders. Your numbers are blown out of proportions.

 

And WoW never had 15 million sub. Just 12 Million. Stop padding FFS.

[JustTray]

This. In reality WoW actually has less real people playing that SWTOR does.

 

What? Do you struggle to put your clothes on by yourself in the morning?

 

Please, provide proof of your absolutely ridiculous claims.

[JustTray]

Facts -

 

Wow Counts only subscriptions that have been active for the last 30 days.

 

Star Wars counts not only free accounts, but also the 30 free days they just gave basically everyone in their numbers.

 

Which do you think is a more accurate representation? If anything, SWTOR stats are HEAVILY padded and bias.

 

This game is doing a lot worse than they are leading investors to believe, and that's why the stock price has taken a hit. Investors aren't as dumb as fanboys.

[Tenceriker]

What? Do you struggle to put your clothes on by yourself in the morning?

 

Please, provide proof of your absolutely ridiculous claims.

 

here is no claim, it's just people trying to derail what we already know is true, WoW is currently doing better to keep player retention than SWTOR.

[HeawiNobal]

M biggest problem is the lack of population. I dont want to continue to play a game where it is hard as hell to get a 4 man group together to do anything... let alone a 2 man group for a heroic. Servers need to be merged or transfers need to start occuring. Something needs to happen to populate servers more.

 

I complete understand more core mmo players staying and others who gave it a whirl for a few months leaving. The amount of server we had a launch was fantastic and kept the queue times to a minimum... well it's not launch anymore and more the a quarter of the population as left and left most servers at Standard population at best during peak times.

 

An example, we were standard last night on the peak time on Tarro Blood server... well, Ilum... was had a high of 13 people between 7:30 and 10:30PM Est. That 13 is on the high side of what it normally is.

 

I think Bioware needs to bite the bullet and start merging and shutting down servers. The easier it is to group, the more fun it will be. The more fun it will be the more people are going to want their friends to play too.

[rakuenCallisto]

You can't call it a loss when most were people waiting on GW2/D3 or ex-Wow players who thought this would be Wow with laser guns.

 

Plus this game is made for adults who love starwars. You can't have same sex romances coming, and cutting peoples heads off, torture and murder like TOR has and expect kids to wanna keep playing it.

 

They love cute stuff like Po the kung-fu panda,rainbow bright ponies. so this game was not going to be for them anyways.

 

Game rocks get over your doom and gloom.

 

Delusioned.

[HeawiNobal]

just logged in after about a month away, there were 4 people on fleet so i went to hoth and sadly,i was the only one there.

 

Sub cancelled,might as well be playing this on x-box to be totally honest.

ugh... what server are you on?

[Vlacke]

WoW is sitting on 10.2m subscribers, down from a lifetime peak of 12m in 2010.

 

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/activision-blizzard-announces-better-than-expected-first-quarter-2012-financial-results-150831155.html

 

Yeah, and around 7m of them are Chinese gold farmers.

[rakuenCallisto]

alanhurst

"just logged in after about a month away, there were 4 people on fleet so i went to hoth and sadly,i was the only one there.

 

Sub cancelled,might as well be playing this on x-box to be totally honest."

 

ugh... what server are you on?

 

I actually made a post related to this a couple days ago.

 

I went to Hoth with my buddy on server Port Nowhere the other night.

 

There were 3 people on Hoth. 3. And we were the other 2.

 

It was so pathetic, I just couldn't stop laughing. Oh yea, this was around 7PM EST as well.

[ShadowOfVey]

none of this is remotely true.

 

Why do people insist on making up numbers to blindly, and poorly, defend this game?

 

Seriously, the ignorance levels are over 9000.

 

 

wow had over 75 million subs and now they're down to just 4 guys

[Allmightyprom]

They "only" lost 25% of subs... Excellent result lol.

[Itukaaj]

Yeah, and around 7m of them are Chinese gold farmers.

 

Lies! Some of them are North Korean and are helping fund the dear leaders love of cognac.

[Benfynyn]

so what are you doing here??? Go and play it and enjoy....

 

Can we all agree to stop saying stuff like this? Telling people to leave and go play something else won't help with the retention of players.