Muskaan Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 So you're assuming they aren't going to get anything right in any update including 1.3? Of course, we'll have to wait and see, but since they're doing several things on the backend related to the aforementioned problems with the Hero engine and low server population limits, herding people onto more populated servers with presumably higher adjusted limits, and working on fixes to gameplay mechanics (as highlighted in the Darthater interview - nice to know they're aware of where they went both right and wrong), then I'm willing to bet the remaining pop will stay stable. I sure wouldn't bet on growth, but I know a lot of people currently doing other things who nonetheless will be happy to pay the cost of a cheap dinner entree to check SWTOR back out if some of their still playing friends tell them there's something worth coming back for. I'm betting a good portion of the people not playing, despite all the rabid "I WILL NEVER TRUST BW AGAIN!" posts, will take another look at the next big content update (ie, not 1.3). Most people aren't as fanatic for or against as forum posters. You can treat patches as a temporary spike in numbers. Similarly, you can treat other game release as a temporary drop in numbers for SWTOR. From the data Paige posted for 6/8-- Sum users ~ 62K worldwide. So, going by the 10% rule - it effectively means that they have a total 620K active players as of 6/8/2012. However, with Diablo 3 release, a drop in active sub numbers should be expected for the 6/8 data. Some people will eventually get bored with D3 and come back to SWTOR. So, with the next few sets of numbers Paige releases, you may see an increase in active players beyond the current guestimated 620K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uniz Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 gallant effort however bioware isnt going to trust your numbers nor use them. i wouldnt either as i would use my own from my own methodology and go from there like they are doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muskaan Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 gallant effort however bioware isnt going to trust your numbers nor use them. i wouldnt either as i would use my own from my own methodology and go from there like they are doing. The object here is not for Bioware to trust her numbers. I am sure Bioware has their own metrics and their own data to play with. And they don't really give a damn about this post. The idea behind the data she collected is to provide an empirical data set for us, the fans and players to look at. She has described the data collection method in details in the OP. If you find a flaw with the method, please post about it and I am sure the OP will consider it. You are also welcome to define your methodology, collect your own data and post about it. We can compare the two data sets. More data sets, the better we can analyze the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laiboch Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Over all Translation of the OP TOR only needs 20-30 active servers.... Instead we have 200+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerdo_hormiguero Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Thanks for the update. This is still the most informative and insightful thing ever posted about SWTOR, especially compared to the hype and drivel BW posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpienne Posted June 8, 2012 Author Share Posted June 8, 2012 (edited) TOR only needs 20-30 active servers.... Instead we have 200+ Actually, you're almost exactly right - I think maybe 35... Let's assume that the "ideal" SWTOR server is the Fatman, and let's say the 24 hr, 2 week average # of logins is 2,500 (I'm rounding a little bit, bear with me). NUMBER OF PEOPLE LOGGED IN APAC | EUR English | EUR French | EUR German | US East | US West PvE | 660 | 5,820 | 1,505 | 2,935 | 13,073 | 7,058 PvP | 600 | 5,670 | 1,955 | 2,675 | 8,841 | 3,655 RP PvE | 650 | 878 | 620 | 908 | 2,120 | 810 RP PvP | NA | 245 | 480 | 240 | 745 | 460 This is what it would look like if I broke it down by area. If a number came to less than 1, I just called it 1 because you can't have half a server for APAC or EUR French. I wish to God I could put a table in here... # of servers Needed: APAC PvE 1 PvP 1 RP PvE 1 RP PvP 1 # of servers Needed: EUR English PvE 2 PvP 2 RP PvE 1 RP PvP 1 # of servers Needed: EUR French PvE 1 PvP 1 RP PvE 1 RP PvP 1 # of servers Needed: EUR German PvE 1 PvP 1 RP PvE 1 RP PvP 1 # of servers Needed: US East PvE 5 PvP 4 RP PvE 1 RP PvP 1 # of servers Needed: US West PvE 3 PvP 1 RP PvE 1 RP PvP 1 Edited June 8, 2012 by Scorpienne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpienne Posted June 8, 2012 Author Share Posted June 8, 2012 however bioware isnt going to trust your numbers nor use them. i wouldnt either as i would use my own from my own methodology and go from there like they are doing. If BW uses my numbers for anything at all, then we all have bigger problems than we thought! :-D BW has real demographics; I sincerely hope and pray that they have absolutely no use for my numbers. Paige Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpienne Posted June 8, 2012 Author Share Posted June 8, 2012 (edited) Just to be clear on this weeks numbers... 3 US servers saw a "gain" 211 US servers saw a "loss" 0 Euro servers saw a "gain" 45 Euro servers saw a "loss" Questions: Is this number very different from previous weeks? Does the availability of PTS have anything to do with that? Sort of. 3 US servers (Jedi Covenant, The Fatman, Drooga's Pleasure Barge) saw gains. Every other server in the game posted a loss. On 6/1/2012, 69 servers posted a gain, 21 had no change, 126 posted a loss. Hm... okay... that's a really good idea! :-) I'll add another pivot table to summarize the change. So here's this weeks change in phi values... CHANGE BY AREA Sum of Change APAC -0.47 EUR English -2.69 EUR French -1.61 EUR German -1.48 US East -3.18 US West -2.58 Grand Total -12.01 CHANGE BY TYPE Sum of Change PvE -6.86 PvP -2.38 RP PvE -2.16 RP PvP -0.61 Grand Total -12.01 Here are the change values from 6/1/2012 CHANGE BY AREA Sum of Change APAC -0.94 EUR English -3.23 EUR French -1.68 EUR German -2.19 US East -4.26 US West -4.57 Grand Total -16.87 CHANGE BY TYPE Sum of Change PvE -11.49 PvP -1.59 RP PvE -3.02 RP PvP -0.77 Grand Total -16.87 Does that answer your question? We're getting into calculus area here if we're looking at the change in the rates of change. I have absolutely nothing but speculation as to why numbers have changed. As you mentioned, it could be a move to the PTS. Could be D3. Could be they unsubbed. Could be finals. Could be people are playing outside after a long winter indoors playing video games. /shrug Paige Edited June 8, 2012 by Scorpienne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl-Just-Karl Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Does that answer your question? Yup. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonoku Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 (edited) Well those numbers scare me, only 6,000 people log on every day. Bioware needs 200k subs to keep the game in good condition. Imagine how it would be after august 20th. no more 1.3 million subs. Edited June 8, 2012 by Jonoku Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roalmo Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Well those numbers scare me, only 6,000 people log on every day. Bioware needs 200k subs to keep the game in good condition. Imagine how it would be after august 20th. no more 1.3 million subs. No idea where you're getting your numbers. Suggest reading the initial post and some more of the thread. The "best" WAG is: "Sum users ~ 62K worldwide. So, going by the 10% rule - it effectively means that they have a total 620K active players as of 6/8/2012." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpienne Posted June 8, 2012 Author Share Posted June 8, 2012 Well those numbers scare me, only 6,000 people log on every day. Bioware needs 200k subs to keep the game in good condition. Imagine how it would be after august 20th. no more 1.3 million subs. Okay, we're having a major malfunction on a couple of levels. 1) I think you lost a digit... today's number is 62,601. (I swear I feel ike Pres. Roslin from BSG.) 2) This is not the number of people that log in every day. These numbers represent the average number of simultaneous concurrent logins over the past two weeks. This isn't the number of subscribers, or number of characters, it's an estimate of how many people are actually logged in at once, on average. Maybe 1000 stay-at-home moms log in at noon, and log at out 3. Maybe 1000 teenagers log in at 3 and log out at 8. Maybe 1000 salarymen like me log in at 8 and log out at 11. Maybe 1000 college students log in at 11 and log out at 2 am. Maybe 1000 bartenders log in at 2 am and log out at noon. I can only tell you that it's about 1000 people logged in at any one time, but it's 5000 different people. Please, I beg of you, pretty please go back and read the OP. I don't think you understand what the numbers mean. Paige Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpienne Posted June 11, 2012 Author Share Posted June 11, 2012 Updated with today's numbers... Paige Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
islander Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 All this tells us Bioware should shut down 160 servers. Hopefully, the voluntary server merging process...errr "Character Transfers" implementation will match this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpienne Posted June 11, 2012 Author Share Posted June 11, 2012 (edited) All this tells us Bioware should shut down 160 servers. More than that, I think. We have 217 now. I think we only need about 36. So that's 36 destination servers and 181 origin servers. I think that this is what it will look like... NEEDED NUMBER OF SERVERS APAC | EUR English | EUR French | EUR German | US East | US West | Total PvE | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 14 PvP | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 RP PvE | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 RP PvP | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 Total | 4 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 36 There is some wiggle room. I'm assuming that everyone gets at least one server of every type. For instance, The APAC, EUR French, and EUR German each get 1 of every server type. They don't have enough people for that, really. For instance, there's no APAC RP-PvP server at this time. You could put all the EUR RP-PvP servers together and they'd still be small. The server breakdown by type really could look liked this, if you wanted to consolidate by server type: PvE 12 PvP 9 RP PvE 2 RP PvP 1 Total 25 Or this if you thought it was more important to consolidate by time-zone/language. APAC 1 EUR English 5 EUR French 2 EUR German 3 US East 10 US West 5 Total 25 That's my guess, anyway. I guess we'll come back in a month and see how wrong or right I am! :-D Paige Edited June 11, 2012 by Scorpienne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Urael Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 And the precipitious drop in Shadow Hand's population continues. I hope Shadow Hand is a destination server. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shirvington Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 More than that, I think. We have 217 now. I think we only need about 31. So that's 31 destination servers and 186 origin servers. That's my guess, anyway. I guess we'll come back in a month and see how wrong or right I am! :-D Paige If what BW is saying about larger population caps, and "filled to the brim" servers, then we may need fewer than 31. Of course, one per region per type, but US East, for example, could probably do with as few as three PvE servers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpienne Posted June 11, 2012 Author Share Posted June 11, 2012 If what BW is saying about larger population caps, and "filled to the brim" servers, then we may need fewer than 31. Of course, one per region per type, but US East, for example, could probably do with as few as three PvE servers? Sure, if they up the size on the servers, to say, 2x Fatman size (I've been using an average pop of about 2,500 for these estimates). Let's get jiggy with it and assume that they can double that to an average of 5,000 concurrent logins... NEEDED NUMBER OF SERVERS APAC | EUR English | EUR French | EUR German | US East | US West | Total PvE | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8 PvP | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 RP PvE | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 RP PvP | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 Total | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 27 Basically everyone everywhere gets 1 server, except US East gets 3 PvE and 2 PvP. However, a lot of those onesie servers would be really sparse, and you could just as well consolidate into half that many servers. Conslidation by type: PvE 6 PvP 5 RP PvE 1 RP PvP 0.4 Total 12 Consolidation by language/zone: APAC 0.4 EUR English 3 EUR French 1 EUR German 1 US East 5 US West 2 Total 12 Paige Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthTHC Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 gallant effort however bioware isnt going to trust your numbers nor use them. i wouldnt either as i would use my own from my own methodology and go from there like they are doing. Paige and the rest of the community on this thread have established a methodology for estimating server populations to fill the void of information in place because BioWare chooses not to share the concrete numbers they have with us. BioWare certainly shouldn't use the numbers in this thread because they are estimates based on assumptions... and BioWare has the REAL numbers. BioWare can query their telemetry to see exactly how many people are logged into their servers at any given minute. They can query their subscriber database to determine how many active subscribers they have. They don't need this thread because they don't need to guess. If you have suggestions to improve the methodology in use in this thread, I'm sure we'd all love to see it. Those contributing the most to this thread seem very interested in being as accurate as possible, again given the information void that is necessarily in place. If you have thoughts that could improve our accuracy, please do share them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muskaan Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Question for people in this thread. What would you consider a healthy max level concurrent user server population for this game? I.E. How many concurrently online level 50s per faction do you think this game needs at peak time to make it enjoyable? Here's my wishlist. Per faction: 8-10 concurrent Warzones at a time == 80 people. 3-4 16 man Ops + 5-6 8 man Ops at a time == 96 people 20-25 hard Mode FPs at a time == 80 people. Around 30-50 people generally loitering around in the fleet and other places. Another 30-50 people questing/doing dailies and world PvP (LOL ?) So, I am wishing for an average peak time server activity of 360 concurrent online level 50s per faction. Is that too optimistic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheronFett Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 I don't really care how it pans out. If it means I have to transfer, fine. If it means my server gets more people, fine. Just tired of playing a single player MMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricJS Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 (edited) So, I am wishing for an average peak time server activity of 360 concurrent online level 50s per faction. Is that too optimistic? I don't think you're being too optimistic. "Standard" population starts at 500, which is 250 per faction if split evenly (like that will ever happen). I'm fairly sure that they're aiming for higher populations than "barely standard" so you'll probably see that even in the cases of less-severe population imbalances. There's estimates in this thread about the server populations on the top 20 servers, and there's some discussion on just how far they could take this. Current peak population (estimate) totals could fit on 40 "Heavy population" servers without changing the definition of "Heavy" (which may be on the table). As long as they aim for about 100 populated servers, they'll probably at least reach your desired level. Edited June 11, 2012 by EricJS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roalmo Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 .. For instance, The APAC, EUR French, and EUR German each get 1 of every server type. They don't have enough people for that, really. For instance, there's no APAC RP-PvP server at this time. You could put all the EUR RP-PvP servers together and they'd still be small... .. Paige The RP-PVPers are already crying. On the second round BW should give them a choice, go to a PvP server or to a RP-PVE server. Never are many RPers to start with in any game, and PvPers are not that numerous either. Double whammy for the RP-PvPers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emeda Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 The RP-PVPers are already crying. On the second round BW should give them a choice, go to a PvP server or to a RP-PVE server. Never are many RPers to start with in any game, and PvPers are not that numerous either. Double whammy for the RP-PvPers. It shouldnt be the second round but instead be the first round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roalmo Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 It shouldnt be the second round but instead be the first round The first round is set in stone.. do the right thing: tell them what you need for the second round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts