From a Goldman Analyst Perspective on SWTOR

[Tsillah]

The OP presents himself in a way anyone could. His credentials, as he presents them could be entirely fictional. No one can check.

 

Secondly, the OP uses popular forum qq as facts. Look at his post, he doesn't support any of his points about what he sees as bad points with any explanation or fact.

 

Conclusion: the OP cannot be taken seriously. If he was a professional, he would be able to offer more than just opinions.

 

Also I do not see any type of professional actually coming to a game forum to give their views in that capacity. It can be nothing else but a troll attempt.

[milmo]

If Bioware decides to make another MMO, I hope they base it off ME or DA. If they think they can save the game, then they need to allocate the funds, take the game off line for 1-2 months and relaunch it. Otherwise, we all need to learn to enjoy mediocrity and a game that might have been.

 

Yeah, that'll work, taking a game offline in order to re-launch it doesn't really work if your goal is to retain customers, fixing bugs within a reasonable amount of time while the game is live is. If you're a games analyst then I'm an astronaut.

[krakken]

Greetings,

 

WOW grew to 11 million. It started at much less. Aion started with 3.5 million, shrunk to under 350k. SWTOR 4-5 million, and is shrinking daily. This shift alone is problematic and often spells doom and gloom for an MMO title. (Just something else to also keep in mind.)

 

Sinius

 

If you are such a great analyst why did you get this number so wrong? The sales were nowhere near that. Here are the actual numbers from the game makers themselves....

 

Over one million people have registered to play Star Wars: The Old Republic less than one week into the game’s launch, making it the fastest-growing subscription MMO (massively multiplayer online) game in history, according to developer BioWare.

 

“We likely had the largest one-day subscription account registration process in MMO history — over one million people are now registered players of the game, and the number is growing rapidly,” say BioWare co-founders Dr. Ray Muzyka and Dr. Greg Zeschuk on the game’s official blog.

 

“As you might imagine, this presented a huge strain on our infrastructure and systems,” they add, ”but the good news is that we seem to be through the worst of it now thanks to folks working hard all day to serve our community.”

 

The developers say they are also working to resolve the issue of server queues, claiming it’s another side effect of the huge demand for The Old Republic. ”We were definitely anticipating a very high load but if anything the demand for the game has only exceeded our expectations.”

 

To date, BioWare says players have logged 28 million hours in the game – roughly the equivalent to watching all six Star Wars movies two million times. They have also created more than 3.8 million characters, including 510,000 Jedi Knights and 550,000 Sith Warriors. BioWare says players have averaged well over five hours a day online and have killed more than two billion non-player characters in the eight days since early game access began.

 

“Everyone at BioWare, EA and LucasArts is honored — and humbled — by the stellar response from our fans,” says Dr. Muzyka. ”We’re going to work together closely with our community in the weeks, months and years ahead, continually serving our audience with regular delivery of compelling new features and content.”

 

BioWare has already given a sneak peek at the new upcoming content for the online role-playing game, which includes a new Flashpoint and an expanded Operation. The new Flashpoint will take place on a brand new world, the developer says, while the new Operation will take the existing Karagga’s palace scenario and more than triple it in size.

 

That was from an interview with Dr. Muzyka himself. There is no way that the game quadrupled from the number stated in the interview which was on Dec. 23rd to today. Now, everyone knows I am not a big fan of how they butchered this game, every prediction I have made for the last 2 years have came true about the short commings of this game, but I dont make up numbers or at least do research before I post. You might want to revize your sales numbers or at least recheck your sources.

[Anomagnus]

I know three invesment bankers in London, and through them their circle of finanical friends.

 

They don't play video games, at least not to the degree they could max level a MMO toon. They're far too busy partying to a degree we can barely imagine.

 

I showed them this post.

 

They laughed.

[Malechieh]

Great read, BIOWARE READ THIS, learn from it!

[Tiaa]

Good post but if people didn't see this coming after all the hype, secrets and statement retractions...

[AlkalineKitten]

Great read, and as an investor myself, I have to admit I didn't think of ToR in this light yet.

 

Pretty damning light.

[aimbotcfg]

you still havent counter the post made by tc with solid reasons

 

Counter the post?

 

The post telling me not to invest in a game?

 

As opposed to telling me not to invest in one of the three huge companies behind the game, all of whom will remain highly profitable regardless of the success of this game or not?

 

I think thats the top and tail of the post, although I'll admit the spelling and syntax errors made it a little illegible.

 

This man is as much a market analyst as I am a ballet dancer.

 

Got to love internet notjitsu.

[Phandy]

Counter the post?

 

The post telling me not to invest in a game?

 

As opposed to telling me not to invest in one of the three huge companies behind the game, all of whom will remain highly profitable regardless of the success of this game or not?

 

I think thats the top and tail of the post, although I'll admit the spelling and syntax errors made it a little illegible.

 

This man is as much a market analyst as I am a ballet dancer.

 

Got to love internet notjitsu.

 

Took the words right out of my mouth. If I keep reading about people "investing in this game" I am going to punch a kitten.

[Gaktar]

Only thing OP is good at is trolling. Shame such effort is wasted on a fruitless goal.

 

To all the lurkers, here's the only question you should be asking yourself... Are you enjoying the game overall? Do you plan on still playing it for a while (like even the OP has said he will)? If you answered yes then that sounds like a success to me.

 

The other thing to ask yourself is do you know more people that will likely purchase and play TOR in the next year as Bioware continues to clean things up and add content? I certainly know quite a few that are watching and waiting (meaning the market could potentially grow a lot, not shrink).

[maxbaby]

WoW did terribly in the first year. Developers didn't like the game either.

Blizz was on the edge of bankruptcy but they found money and made the game how it should be.

BW will take their time. It is entirely up to them and their decision what game will be like after a year but changes will be.

Drastic.

[maxbaby]

Counter the post?

 

The post telling me not to invest in a game?

 

As opposed to telling me not to invest in one of the three huge companies behind the game, all of whom will remain highly profitable regardless of the success of this game or not?

 

I think thats the top and tail of the post, although I'll admit the spelling and syntax errors made it a little illegible.

 

This man is as much a market analyst as I am a ballet dancer.

 

Got to love internet notjitsu.

 

My thoughts exactly. English is not my mother tongue but spelling made me cringe.

Also, no broker would watch at a project in short term.

You should see what this project will be bring in the long term.

Edited January 6, 2012 by maxbaby

[Blurble]

The other thing to ask yourself is do you know more people that will likely purchase and play TOR in the next year as Bioware continues to clean things up and add content? I certainly know quite a few that are watching and waiting (meaning the market could potentially grow a lot, not shrink).

 

Star Wars will suffer the same fate as every other MMO that withers away after release. People who like Star Wars are already here and are not likely to leave. Everyone else will just see it as another failed MMO and avoid it.

[Soazak]

Buying & playing a game =/= Investing in a company.

[Dampiel]

Dear OP, unfortunately even with all your experience (more likely lack of reading your post) you never can tell what MMO players will do

[Spynnal]

The OP presents himself in a way anyone could. His credentials, as he presents them could be entirely fictional. No one can check.

 

Secondly, the OP uses popular forum qq as facts. Look at his post, he doesn't support any of his points about what he sees as bad points with any explanation or fact.

 

Conclusion: the OP cannot be taken seriously. If he was a professional, he would be able to offer more than just opinions.

 

Also I do not see any type of professional actually coming to a game forum to give their views in that capacity. It can be nothing else but a troll attempt.

 

Instead of caring whether the OP is a fraud, or legit, isn't the better question "Are his points valid?"

 

Who cares what he is or is not. Does what he wrote have any validity?

 

I think he has several solid points actually.

 

If you can shrug off his predictions for the future (which, are both meaningless and a guess, no matter if he is legit or not), I still think some comments on the state of things are both true and a good thing for Bioware to look at.

[Liquidacid]

Instead of caring whether the OP is a fraud, or legit, isn't the better question "Are his points valid?"

 

Who cares what he is or is not. Does what he wrote have any validity?

 

I think he has several solid points actually.

 

If you can shrug off his predictions for the future (which, are both meaningless and a guess, no matter if he is legit or not), I still think some comments on the state of things are both true and a good thing for Bioware to look at.

 

apparently you are not a fan of critical thinking

[Korrigan]

Mmmhh aren't Goldman among those responsible for the recent/actual crisis because of the mistakes and greed of their analysts?

 

[Jaxxar]

If you are a real Goldman, your company needs to give me back my bail out funds. NOW!

[ttuchscher]

This person is clearly not a Goldman Sachs analyst. At the very best, he's on the retail side of the business, "advising" mom and pop type investors.

I've worked in institutional sales and trading at an investment bank for 16 years and have read thousands of research reports from bankers and analysts and this guy doesn't speak the same language. This guy focuses on intangibles way too much. Institutional investors are much much more concerned with hard numbers (subscribers and churn rate). He misuses the word "monetize" over and over.

This guy's basic premise is that since he's a Goldman "analyst," his opinion is better than others'. The problem is that he's not an analyst.

I'm not arguing one way or another about the quality or longevity or investor viability of the game. I'm only calling out his bogus claim of being a Goldman analyst, which he clearly is not.

[Spynnal]

apparently you are not a fan of critical thinking

 

Because I asked the general question if any of his comments on the game were valid?

 

Had I made a case or argument, I'd understand your comment. Since I asked a question, namely, what do people think about his comments on the game, I'm not sure why my thoughts are even applicable. I asked if people thought his criticisms of the game seemed accurate.

Edited January 6, 2012 by Spynnal

[aimbotcfg]

Instead of caring whether the OP is a fraud, or legit, isn't the better question "Are his points valid?"

 

Who cares what he is or is not. Does what he wrote have any validity?

 

I think he has several solid points actually.

 

If you can shrug off his predictions for the future (which, are both meaningless and a guess, no matter if he is legit or not), I still think some comments on the state of things are both true and a good thing for Bioware to look at.

 

Unforunately, when you so blatantly lie about your background, any valid points you make then to be invalidated by your insecurity in trying to present them in an honest way.

 

Add to that he points out the bugs as a major issue while claiming to have championed WoW at release (which was far and away more buggy) and what you have is a troll attempting to cover his tracks poorly. Chances are he wasn't even about for the launch of said game given his apparently lack of knowlege about the state it was in.

Edited January 6, 2012 by aimbotcfg

[Swirly]

Greetings,

 

Before I start …

 

 

I deleted what you said except your name to save space but I wanted to personally let you know that I read not only all of your post but it was -

 

1) pleasurable to read

2) well thought out

3) made the most sense on this forum or any I have ever seen.

4) spoke for what I believe in as well

 

I wish more would post like you but at least I can say SWTOR gave me one good read on the forums since it could not deliver anywhere else.

 

Thank you.

Edited January 6, 2012 by Swirly

[Spynnal]

Unforunately, when you so blatantly lie about your background, any valid points you make then to be invalidated by your insecurity in trying to present them in an honest way.

 

Add to that he points out the bugs as a major issue while claiming to have championed WoW at release (which was far and away more buggy) and what you have is a troll attempting to cover his tracks poorly. Chances are he wasn't even about for the launch of said game given his apparently lack of knowlege about the state it was in.

 

Ok. But all I asked was what people thought of his comments on the game. Valid or not.

 

Whether he said "Bounty Hunters are OP", or "Hi, I'm the King of Siam, Bounty Hunters are OP", all I asked was whether people thought Bounty Hunters were OP are not, leaving his majesty's background out of it for a second.

[aimbotcfg]

Ok. But all I asked was what people thought of his comments on the game. Valid or not.

 

Whether he said "Bounty Hunters are OP", or "Hi, I'm the King of Siam, Bounty Hunters are OP", all I asked was whether people thought Bounty Hunters were OP are not, leaving his majesty's background out of it for a second.

 

Except you can't. Because thats not being rational or critical about it at all. His main statement about who he is in an attempt to give himself credibility is an obvious lie. You can't discount that when looking at his post. That would be like reading a post that said:

 

"Everything below this line is a lie.

 

I am God.

 

The world will end tommorow, go out and have fun, spend all your money and don't worry about the concequences."

 

Then saying 'well, if we ignore that first line, this sounds like a great idea.'

 

i.e. It is a foolish way to look at things.