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What everyone knew...


jimmyquinella

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http://massively.joystiq.com/2012/04/19/analyst-says-swtor-subs-peaked-at-1-7-million-now-declining/

 

quote from that article

 

"While the game got off to a good start, the relatively light amount of end-game content does appear to be taking a toll," Creutz wrote.

 

Hooray! Speculation reported as fact YET AGAIN!

 

I have an informed opinion that the sun's out. But unless I go outside and PROVE IT, my opinion means exactly NOTHING. I can cite anecdotal data to back up my opinion, but WITHOUT DIRECT EVIDENTIARY PROOF it means nothing.

 

/sky is falling

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information and perception within the gaming community can be crucial to longevity.

 

I see. So you're doing a public service by keeping the player community 'informed'? Thanks again. I don't know what we'd all do without such altruism.

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Oh goodie... Another post about this and that website commenting on how ToR is losing subscribers...

 

This happens to every MMO. Including WoW.

Hell, last i heard, im sure WoW actually has only a couple of million paying subscribers?

The rest are from korea etc, which i heard from WoW/ToR forums dont actually pay a subscription due to laws over there.

 

If anyone thought ToR would just keep going up and up with subscriptions they were insane.

Like EVERY other MMO released to high acclaim, there would be a high subscription base, it would then lower and then depending on the way the game development goes would rise or lower. (Considering the next big updates are apparently a LFG tool among other stuff i would expect the number to raise)

 

How can websites comment on how the subscribers will continue to go down when they dont know what updates the Devs have planned?

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If we take everything in that article to be 100% true and I'm not sure I am willing to go that far, it isn't that horrible.

 

They said themselves, they only need 500k to keep the lights on and keep developing. This is more than double that baseline and after that initial 500k plunge, subs will slowly settle. Overall, not devastating news in the slightest.

 

I'm sure the suits won't be completely pleased as they were shooting for the stars (no pun intended) but as a question about the longevity and success of the game, a realist would call this neither good, nor bad news.

 

Of course that assumes any of this is actually true and I don't believe anything that isn't an official report from the people who actually know the sub numbers.

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I've done this in another thread, but let me see if I have maintained my amazing powers of foreseeing the future...

 

1) This game's subscriptions will decline through vanilla, and spike occasionally before/after patches.

 

2) The game's subscriptions will spike again when the first expansion hits.

 

3) The game's subscriptions will steadily decline again.

 

Seriously, I'm gifted. I should have a reality show on TLC.

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Anytime you read business information released by an "analyst", run the other way, because it's almost certainly completely made up. They aim their info at clueless investors who think "well, he certainly sounds like he knows what he's talking about". Only trust information released from confirmed sources, this of course doesn't apply only to SWTOR.
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Whats interesting is despite the 'sky is falling' presentation here, the analyst doesn't expect SWTOR to fall below 1.25 until march of next year. That's a big fall, but it's not enough to be concerned about the game dying whatsoever. Moreover, it gives plenty of time for stabilisation/reversal of a (possible) trend.
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I think most miss the point...

 

 

Whether or not the game is stable is not as important as the perception. (From major gaming sites)

 

just opinion of course.

 

What exactly do you want? Someone to stop him from posting that hack journalism? Everyone knows MMOs have an ebb and flow to them. It's not news and it's not in the least bit important. And honestly what difference does it make? Assuming we went from 1.7m to 1.5m does that effect you? Not really. Macro numbers mean very little to the micro. And yes before we get off on the conjecture that server populations are shrinking and thus it effects the micro, that's a structure planning failure that is being addressed.

 

Anyone that decides whether a game is good or not based on some sort of social confirmation bias is not really someone I would miss if they chose not to play here.

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I didn't think the end game content was light. Plenty of stuff to do.

 

It was really buggy...

It is a PITA to get a group together...

It is the same crap we have been doing over and over and over again in other MMOs for years...

 

There was plenty of it though.

 

Although I won't be around for it I am sure TOR will be around for a good long while, it will have a small customer base and continue cranking out content. It will never be near the level of WOW, which I think is a fluke that no MMO will ever get to in the near future any ways. TOR maybe had a shot if it was on par with WOW's functionality and polish.

 

To say TOR is dying is silly, of course it is losing subs. Its not a very good game compared to others on the market and its suffering from the usual post launch desertion that hits any MMO. Saying it is dying is silly though, once it gets under that magic number EA/BW has for it then you can say its dying...but we don't know what that number is.

 

I guess you could say TOR is dying though, in the same respect that we are all dying...being that our unavoidable end is death.

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He isn't in the game community. He a a "writer" trying to get hits for the site. That's it. Relatively light end game? That's how i know he isn't a member of the community.

 

Best part is, this isn't even a direct link. This is a link to a post about a post about the direct post. We're up to fifth-hand information here.

 

Along the same vein, My best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with the girl who saw Ferris pass out at 31 Flavors last night. I guess it's pretty serious.

 

/sky is falling

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Another SWTOR troll post on Massively by Jef Reahard. Every single thing he has posted about this game is troll fueled hate and another reason I refuse to read any of his articles. The guy acts like SWTOR ruined his life with his hate filled ramblings about the game. But the way I see it, if a game can make him that miserable then I will stay subscribed just so he loses sleep.
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