NOW = 1.7 Million Active Subscribers | 3 Months from now = Guess What

[mangarrage]

It'll be interesting to see what happens to sub numbers when they start selling TOR to the red zones. Us more hardcore gamers in the red zones might have bought it on amazon and such but the more casual crowd wont bother until it's on store shelves.

 

This is a great point considering everyone looks at wow who admitted that over 75% of their "subs" are in Asia at this point

 

You know where someone can pay for 10 hours a month and are considered a sub

 

I do not know what their plans are on this but it would probably triple the subs

[Ortonic]

EA said well before launch that 500,000 subscriptions was a solid number and would still help the title to remain profitable. Considering they have doubled that and still have room to grow, I would anticipate that SWTOR will be just fine.

 

You guys should really give this game at least a year before you start analyzing if it's failing or not. Give the large casual base time to become invested in the game. There will be others from the WoW community that will decide whether or not they want to continue to invest their time and money in to Mists or move on to something else.

 

Many people claim "well, (insert MMO here) doesn't have WoW's subscription numbers so it's an instant fail", but what they need to realize is that there will be probably never be another MMO that will literally expand that fast. There are too many options at this point. The MMO genre is almost oversaturated with everything from f2p to casual to hardcore and everything in between.

[GalacticKegger]

You shouldn't let the setting deter you. Missing a good thing would be worse than trying something that you might not like. There are no elves in GW2 thankfully! Or Orcs! But there are swords, and sorcery. However the way you command them is vastly different from other MMO's. You might like it, check it out. Can't hurt.

Wouldn't happen to be on the NCSoft payroll would you? Edited February 6, 2012 by GalacticKegger

[racsofp]

My rough estimate is 2.5M Active Subscribers

What's yours?

I'm going to follow the lead of people who can't decide if the planet is warming or cooling.

 

I do not know what the number will be, but I am predicting Subscription Count Change.

[Drewser]

You shouldn't let the setting deter you. Missing a good thing would be worse than trying something that you might not like. There are no elves in GW2 thankfully! Or Orcs! But there are swords, and sorcery. However the way you command them is vastly different from other MMO's. You might like it, check it out. Can't hurt.

 

I checked out the website and I am not seeing anything that is vastly different in how the characters are commanded. What am I missing?

[Tiriensoul]

600,000,000 before end of feb. no doubt.

[Enako]

My rough estimate is 2.5M Active Subscribers

What's yours?

 

3-5 m.

 

NON gamer people are coming into this game. im not saying non-MMO gamers - note that, im saying NON gamers.

 

its a major feat to attract those people.

 

this game, will get some of the wow playerbase. but not all. the attraction of the two games are different.

 

but, the appeal of this game is mainstream. this definition of 'mainstream' includes non gamers. so far, only nintendo wii has been able to do it, in almost 15 years.

 

subscriber base for this game will dwarf wow in 1.5 years. but, wow probably wont die.

[Rohke]

350k id say if that.

 

It lacks enough mmo features gonna take alot of growth to maintain subs.

[VenthiosLestaran]

You wouldn't happen to be on the NCSoft payroll would you?

 

No. I'm a cook, I don't work for NCSoft.

[Brickabrack]

An exceptional product will be rewarded. It's up to BioWare to continue to be exceptional. 3 months from now we'll see how that is going for them. I for one will be around to see for myself. I'm very pleased with my purchase.

[Faytte]

My guess is they will drop to 900K by the end of the month, then down to 600K/500K by the end of the following month.

[Drizt_]

1 million or less when you look at the player count on the planet your on and see 50 other people you start to wonder why it was sold as a mmo..

[Blotter]

This guy RIGHT here. ^^^^^^^

 

 

 

As for the "numbers" that have come out, everyone should know that the Q3 release from EA counted those numbers as of DECEMBER 31st, 2011. This is what that means:

 

#1. This was when there was a free month.

 

#2. The good looking math is likely NOT so good looking now, a month and some change down the road from when that was reported.

 

 

CLIFFS: We'll have to see when they release another financial statement. My guess: It isn't going to be pretty and EAs stock is going to fall. Hard.

 

THIs has been beaten to death, but I'm gonna give it one last kick in the taint since you guys apparently can't stop yourselves from trying to spread disinformation:

 

1. The revenue/operating statements from the press release were the numbers for revenue, expenses, etc., as of December 31, 2011.

 

2. The statements by EA/BW representatives to investors and stockholders on February 1, 2012 that they CURRENTLY has 1.7M ACTIVE SUBSCRIPTIONS, most of which were paying, but some of which were still on free trial, was a statement about the number of active subscriptions ON FEBRUARY 1, 2012...NOT DECEMBER 31, 2011. Myriad reasons for this, but most of all:

 

a. The English language requires interpreting statements using the word CURRENT to mean that someone is referring to RIGHT NOW; and

 

b. Federal law prohibits misleading and fraudulent statements to investors. Give that EA.BW was absolutely clear in the language it used that it was referring to subscriptions numbers/status as of February 1, 2012, they would be exposed to all sorts of legal problems if it later cam eout that they were trying to tell investors one thing and use numbers from a month prior. Moreover, such behavior would expose them to all sorts of civil lawsuits from investors. FACE IT: THEY WEREN'T LYING AND THEY WEREN'T TALKING ABOUT DECEMBER 31, 2011, EXCEPT FOR THE PORTION OF THE REPORT THAT COVERED Q3 EARNINGS.

[Bullsith]

They are gonna lose half, if not more. I'm afraid there's no turning back for BW now. SWTOR will join the graveyard of MMOs that challenged WoW and didn't make it past the first round. Shame, I followed this game since 2008.

[Nytak]

No idea. BioWare definitely came out of the gates strong. They made it through the crucial launch and free month with shining colors.

 

Things definitely looking good. But I agree w/ others that the 3 month and 6 month marks will give us a more clear picture of the long term.

 

I'm still happy and playing, and have no plans on that changing. Will I still be happy in 3 months, or 6? I don't know, but I do know that if I'm still playing 6 months down the road, I will most likely continue to play for a few years to come.

 

They retained me for the first month, they released what I believe to be a solid game with enormous potential for growth. Now it really boils down to what BioWare does with this game and whether or not that gels with me in the long run.

Edited February 6, 2012 by Nytak

[ratster]

I wanna guess too! 2.1 million (exactly) as of 12:53:22 4/1/2012.

 

Anyway, the game has mass appeal, its by far the most successful MMO start ever.

 

People compare to WoW, but it did not have 1.7 million subs 30 days after launch.

 

Time will tell, but I believe they have a winner.

 

Since no one really knows what the saturation level is on the MMO market, no telling how its success or not will affect WoW subscriptions one way or the other.

[Tiaa]

Still don't believe this game has 1.7 million subs.

 

It doesn't feel like it in game nor outside.

 

I have no friends that play this and most people I have talked to in game shops won't even touch it/ know this game exist.

[DarthSublimitas]

drop in half...

[Emeda]

I wanna guess too! 2.1 million (exactly) as of 12:53:22 4/1/2012.

 

Anyway, the game has mass appeal, its by far the most successful MMO start ever.

 

People compare to WoW, but it did not have 1.7 million subs 30 days after launch.

 

Time will tell, but I believe they have a winner.

 

Since no one really knows what the saturation level is on the MMO market, no telling how its success or not will affect WoW subscriptions one way or the other.

 

I also believe there are more people playing MMO's now than back then. I dont think there were 10 million people playing MMO's back in 2003 where as now there are probable 5x as many more people playing MMO's than in 2003.

[Emeda]

They are gonna lose half, if not more. I'm afraid there's no turning back for BW now. SWTOR will join the graveyard of MMOs that challenged WoW and didn't make it past the first round. Shame, I followed this game since 2008.

 

So WoW is the tyson of MMO's. Hopefully some no name company will make a no name MMO that will detrown the champ. Hopefully his name will be SWG2

[VenthiosLestaran]

So WoW is the tyson of MMO's. Hopefully some no name company will make a no name MMO that will detrown the champ. Hopefully his name will be SWG2

 

That, won't ever happen. I'm sorry.

[TotalKitty]

What I don't get is why everyone is so obsessed about having another MMO beat WoW (as if).

 

As far as I know, MMO games are NOT Highlander.. There cannot be only one.

Edited February 6, 2012 by TotalKitty

[gurugeorge]

What I don't get is why everyone is so obsessed about having another MMO beat WoW (as if).

 

As far as I know, MMO games are NOT Highlander.. There cannot be only one.

 

That's precisely what's so hilarious about these kinds of discussions. It's utterly absurd - sort of as if MMOs were racehorses or something.

 

What's totally stumped all the hataz is that they've been thinking in terms of BW capturing some of a limited market that Blizz has already got the biggest chunk of.

 

But that's not how Blizz thought relative to its own times (with EQ the monster game), and that's not (I'll wager) how BW are thinking either.

 

The market for MMOs still has tons of headroom - it's just the market for certain kinds of MMO gameplay that's hit its ceiling.

 

BW are changing the game a bit - as indeed are Arenanet. SWTOR will attract its own, less "hardcore" audience, who love story and immersion, and that will be a hook that helps them "get" the MMO thing (i.e. the fun of playing with others in a virtual world).

 

There's still room for tons of variety in the market. Videogames are growing, virtual worlds are growing. We're nowhere NEAR market saturation yet. Compare and contrast mobile phones: we're at the equivalent stage where most people have heard of mobile phones and seen them mentioned in the media and used by cool people in films, but haven't all got one yet.

Edited February 6, 2012 by gurugeorge

[jonobiwan]

3-5 m.

 

NON gamer people are coming into this game. im not saying non-MMO gamers - note that, im saying NON gamers.

 

its a major feat to attract those people.

 

this game, will get some of the wow playerbase. but not all. the attraction of the two games are different.

 

but, the appeal of this game is mainstream. this definition of 'mainstream' includes non gamers. so far, only nintendo wii has been able to do it, in almost 15 years.

 

subscriber base for this game will dwarf wow in 1.5 years. but, wow probably wont die.

 

I agree. The game will grow as time goes on. I just don't get these doomsayers. NO MMO IS PERFECT ON LAUNCH!

[VenthiosLestaran]

What I don't get is why everyone is so obsessed about having another MMO beat WoW (as if).

 

As far as I know, MMO games are NOT Highlander.. There cannot be only one.

 

Same reason as there are "console wars". Stupid people fight about stupid things, and it all turns out completely pointless. Just like them. Quite clear when you think about it isn't it?