EA shareholders meeting: over/under 300k subs?

[DarksideWK]

I'm going to put my guess in for the sub base. I'm going to guess they report a 450k "player base" which we can understand as 150k trial accounts and 300k subs. Over or under?

 

<edited for spelling>

Edited July 26, 2012 by DarksideWK

[LibertySol]

I'm going to put my guess in for the sub base. I'm going to guess they report a 450k "player base" which we can understand as 150k trial accounts and 300k subs. Over or under?

 

<edited for spelling>

 

From March to May they lost 400,000 subscribers. If we assume it continues that trajectory than I'd say it's more like 500k-700k. I'm guessing 650k.

[Nyoro]

I reckon over, possibly at the half a mil mark.

 

I'd wager they've lost a butt load of customers since the last announcement, yet there's still many very busy servers.

[Thaltom]

Going to estimate 750,000 subs with a 100,000 sub margin of error.

[mangarrage]

I would say it will show over that number. People who did 2 3 month and people who initially did 6months are good until August 18th. And I think that's a big number

I will say that number will be pretty close for their 3rd quarter though

[Roalmo]

My bet is they pull a Warhammer, and don't report the subs in any way shape or form.

[Dsstronghold]

350-400k max

[DarthOvertone]

My guess is 900K.

[Thaltom]

My bet is they pull a Warhammer, and don't report the subs in any way shape or form.

 

It's an investors meeting. If an investor brings it up (which they probably will) then they have to answer it.

[Gokkus]

850k or so

There is no way its under 300.000, Ill eat my vibrosword if it is.

Edited July 26, 2012 by Gokkus

[TUXs]

It's an investors meeting. If an investor brings it up (which they probably will) then they have to answer it.

 

The investors will probably ask off the record, not on.

[SweetNausea]

I'd wager on an even half mil.

[Arlbo_Nabbins]

My guess is 900K.

 

My guess would be around 900k.

[belizar]

depends when it is, over 500k if before the next 30odd days, well under if past (6month subs is up)

[Dsstronghold]

850k or so

There is no way its under 300.000, Ill eat my vibrosword if it is.

 

Well lets look at some info, they have said tor needs around 200k subs to survive and f2p might be an option if subs get near that number.

It could be under 500k lets face it a lot of servers got merged into a very few.

[Lionflash]

Are we guessing closest number without going over?

 

Then i'll go with 1 Subscriber, Bob.

[belizar]

Well lets look at some info, they have said tor needs around 200k subs to survive and f2p might be an option if subs get near that number.

It could be under 500k lets face it a lot of servers got merged into a very few.

 

they said they need 500k

[Roalmo]

It's an investors meeting. If an investor brings it up (which they probably will) then they have to answer it.

 

No they don't have to answer directly, if they feel it will effect the stock, and they didn't answer it for Warhammer, at about the same time in the life of the project. And with many of the same problems.

[Tuscad]

700k, 60k trials.

[Mezla]

Around 500K. That's with a bit of padding from free trials.

[grandmthethird]

Well lets look at some info, they have said tor needs around 200k subs to survive and f2p might be an option if subs get near that number.

It could be under 500k lets face it a lot of servers got merged into a very few.

 

We were the ones begging for the server mergers

[TUXs]

We were the ones begging for the server mergers

 

And why was that exactly? Do you remember? It was because most servers couldn't get enough people together for a freaking Ops.

[Blattan]

I would say it will show over that number. People who did 2 3 month and people who initially did 6months are good until August 18th. And I think that's a big number

I will say that number will be pretty close for their 3rd quarter though

 

This.

 

Until we get past August, the subscription numbers are likely to be unintentionally inflated.

 

Of course, if something enticing happens before the end of August, the numbers could end up being accurate (or even low).

Edited July 26, 2012 by Blattan

[DarthBuckets]

I'll preface this by saying I love SWTOR, understand that young MMOs require patience, expect it to grow and expand, and am dismayed by the rumor-mongering, negativity, and extreme obsession with subscription numbers.

 

Current subscriber numbers will likely be revealed on July 31, with the quarterly investor call.

 

Feb 2011: EA CEO indicates 500k subscribers means SWTOR is "substantially profitable."

http://www.gamespot.com/news/star-wars-the-old-republic-needs-only-500k-subscribers-ea-6297338

 

That number for profitability could have changed since then (up or down), based on development cost, services, staff reduction, etc etc.

 

Assuming that profit margin stayed the same, they have a substantial surplus of revenue from boxed copies and subs based on the numbers from launch to May (even if you factor in the included month at launch and the 1.2 free month).

 

The bottom line is: I believe that unless subscribers dip less than 200k or so, the game is financially fine with the current subscription model. Even then, it's not "dead," by any means.

 

As for layoffs and restructuring of the development team, that is a natural cycle of game development and we as bystanders don't know how much of that (if any) is due to budgetary concerns due to sales. Even so, it may not be a good indicator of the future development or sustainability of the game. Also, anyone that has ever worked on a *huge* development project or witnessed bureaucracy can attest to to the fact that more cooks in the kitchen does not necessarily result in a better meal.

 

In my opinion, the #1 threat to the game at this point is the community itself and the (I believe unfounded) negative perception of the game on the Internet. There are thousands of people playing the game every day and enjoying it, but it is a struggle to attract new players to the game if their first and only impressions of the game are extremely negative rants from people championing the game to fail. Heralding the death of a game can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Edited July 26, 2012 by DarthBuckets

[MasterKayote]

Id say itll be around the same maybe around 1million.

 

Game has been gaining since then I think. Maybe it lost more between the last conference report and 1.3 and the mergers but its been recovering since then.

 

Worse case I say around 850k.

1 million most likely.

1.3m best case.