Subs down 25%

[JeramieCrowe]

Let's argue over nothing some more shall we? Geez, you never give it a rest so I hope they give some game overtime for all of your hard work.

 

Pot? Meet Kettle...

[nadokaoh]

To be fair, they stayed the same total wise that was reported in the prevous quarter report. 10.2 million. But I do suspect they will gain more when MOP is released.

 

since people uses the 30days to claim inflated numbers ill use the convenient scroll of resurrection 20 days before Wows numbers

[oPURT]

Well, now subs are down 25.000001% since I just cancelled mine. Just bored, FPs weren't fun anymore, Ops weren't fun anymore, PVP wasn't fun anymore, didn't feel like levelling a toon to 50 would be fun the 5th time around, so I'm out. Not even sure where I'm going. Back to LOTRO? Probably not. On to D3? Nope, doesn't interest me at all. Waiting for GW2? Might give it a try, if it ever comes out. For now I'll focus on walking my dog, riding my motorcycle, and just enjoying the warm weather. Hey, I live in Calgary, we don't get much warm weather!

 

And no, you can't have my stuff.

[arcdaemon]

I tell you why people left and will leave the game sucks.

[Tenceriker]

Pot? Meet Kettle...

 

Oh feeling funny today I see. Should be fun.

[Grammarye]

What amuses me is the continued assumption that those 1.3 million players are all on the edge of unsubscribing, just because a few people on the forums are (and that's ignoring those with just plain schadenfreude). Projection is such a terrible thing...

 

As for it being terrible for EA - I doubt it - there are lots of reasons why EA's share price might change but TOR isn't one of them. They sold 10M units respectively of Battlefield 3 & FIFA 2012. They already have the ability to print money regurgitating the same games year after year & fans that will lap said up. $70M in a few weeks vs a drop of $5M a month. I'm sure they want TOR to succeed, but it's not exactly a major dent.

 

No, if TOR's sub numbers are a problem for anyone, it's us - the players still playing.

[HKDeath]

Exactly my point. None of us have numbers on why people left. Or why they stayed.

 

But we do have numbers on how many left.

 

2.4 million sold

1.3 million subscribers

=

1.1 million people already said "Thanks, but no thanks." In just 5 months.

 

And with summer and big games coming and free months running out that number is going to snowball a lot, and fast.

 

I just hope you have an alternate income, Jeramie. EA might have to lay you off soon.

Edited May 13, 2012 by HKDeath

[JeramieCrowe]

But we do have numbers on how many left.

 

2.4 million sold

1.3 million subscribers

=

1.1 million people already said "Thanks, but no thanks."

 

I just hope you have an alternate income, Jeramie. EA might have to lay you off soon.

 

Don't you find it alarming that statements of reality make you think someone is an EA employee? I would, if I were you. You might ask yourself that question. It might get existential for you, so do be careful.

[Grammarye]

Interesting reading through the thread. It seems if you're remotely positive about the game, you're an EA employee. If you're against the game, you're not, as might be expected, a Blizzard employee, just an aggrieved player, who (from the opposing point of view as far as I can tell) can't face facts. Fascinating bits of psychology. I must go make some popcorn.

2.4 million sold

1.3 million subscribers

=

1.1 million people already said "Thanks, but no thanks." In just 5 months.

You are, I trust, aware of the concept of MMO population variance? Where people can quite often have the game purchased but decide for various reasons to just not subscribe currently - even 'I'll be back in a year'. WoW has this quite a lot which is why their box/digital sales & subscription numbers rarely tally at all. For example, I have a Cataclysm box on a shelf & no sub. It does not automatically translate to me never playing WoW ever again.

 

The only major difference here is whether TOR can sustain things despite people vanishing (for whatever reason). WoW has a larger overall population with which to absorb such hits.

 

If this thread is still debating facts, which I doubt...

[JeramieCrowe]

If this thread is still debating facts, which I doubt...

 

I always keep trying. But stating facts around here get you labeled an EA employee. Which, I think, shoots themselves in the foot, hehe.

[rbkrbk]

Well, now subs are down 25.000001% since I just cancelled mine. Just bored, FPs weren't fun anymore, Ops weren't fun anymore, PVP wasn't fun anymore, didn't feel like levelling a toon to 50 would be fun the 5th time around, so I'm out. Not even sure where I'm going. Back to LOTRO? Probably not. On to D3? Nope, doesn't interest me at all. Waiting for GW2? Might give it a try, if it ever comes out. For now I'll focus on walking my dog, riding my motorcycle, and just enjoying the warm weather. Hey, I live in Calgary, we don't get much warm weather!

 

And no, you can't have my stuff.

 

Unfortunately, in Calgary you never know when we will get a weekend of just the wettest, sh****** snow. Enjoy it while it lasts buddy, that's what I'm doing.

[Stalkobot]

I always keep trying. But stating facts around here get you labeled an EA employee. Which, I think, shoots themselves in the foot, hehe.

 

You have thrown up more than your fair share of hyperbole and nonsense, wether you were trying to be satirical or sarcastic I couldnt tell you. Regardless it somewhat errodes your stance of stating "facts". Pretty much everyone who has posted "facts" here have dont nothing of the kind.

[ohpleasework]

Interesting reading through the thread. It seems if you're remotely positive about the game, you're an EA employee. If you're against the game, you're not, as might be expected, a Blizzard employee, just an aggrieved player, who (from the opposing point of view as far as I can tell) can't face facts. Fascinating bits of psychology. I must go make some popcorn.

 

You are, I trust, aware of the concept of MMO population variance? Where people can quite often have the game purchased but decide for various reasons to just not subscribe currently - even 'I'll be back in a year'. WoW has this quite a lot which is why their box/digital sales & subscription numbers rarely tally at all. For example, I have a Cataclysm box on a shelf & no sub. It does not automatically translate to me never playing WoW ever again.

 

The only major difference here is whether TOR can sustain things despite people vanishing (for whatever reason). WoW has a larger overall population with which to absorb such hits.

 

If this thread is still debating facts, which I doubt...

 

There's loss, stability, and growth. The only MMOs to recover from sustained or heavy losses were those that adopted a free to play model later in their life. Anecdotes about players owning a box but not a subscription, et al, speak of obviousness but also represent a customer profile that is statistically insignificant in regards to the health of a MMO in it's first year (they may factor into stability much later, if a MMO survives to maturity).

 

Besides, that's clearly not what's happening here. After a sell through of 2.4 million they had a retention rate of just over 50%. There aren't hundreds of thousands of customers that purchased boxes and never subscribed after five months, or said "hey I like this game, but I think I'll be back in a year".

 

I feel dumber just having had to explain this to you.

Edited May 13, 2012 by ohpleasework

[Grammarye]

There's loss, stability, and growth. The only MMOs to recover from sustained or heavy losses were those that adopted a free to play model later in their life. Anecdotes about players owning a box but not a subscription, et al, speak of obviousness but also represent a customer profile that is statistically insignificant in regards to the health of a MMO in it's first year (they may factor into stability much later, if a MMO survives to maturity).

 

Besides, that's clearly not what's happening here. After a sell through of 2.4 million they had a retention rate of just over 50%. There aren't hundreds of thousands of customers that purchased boxes and never subscribed after five months, or said "hey I like this game, but I think I'll be back in a year".

You are placing a bias on the numbers that cannot be confirmed factually. Like it or not, the growth or not of a given game is made up of hundreds of thousands of such 'anecdotes'. Additionally, I was debunking the statement that simply because 2.4M sold and 1.3 subscribe that somehow all 1.1M of those players hate the game. You cannot make that statement any more reliably than I can the opposite (which is why I didn't). Nor can you infer a given customer profile to be a common one. MMOs are by their very nature fluctuating beasts especially in times of financial hardship.

 

In short, you're making it up. I am merely pointing out that you are doing so, not attempting to make up my own interpretation. 500k people left TOR since launch. That's the facts. Anything else as to why is hundreds of thousands of anecdotes coupled with inherent player bias. Certainly some left because they don't like the game. How many is unknown. You seem to be uncomfortable with 'don't know' and prefer to fill in the blanks with your own viewpoint. I find that a pity.

 

You mention statistically insignificant. Please back up such statements with actual evidence. Alternatively you could continue to resort to insults.

 

Edit: Re-read this and it sounds a bit harsh. I don't mean you personally I am merely irritated by the huge Grand-Canyon-spanning assumptions being thrown around.

Edited May 13, 2012 by Grammarye

[Razdek]

The op has neively forgotten the fact the game has only been out since december. This first 6 months is where people try the game out to determine if they like it or not. Those who do stay and those who decide that its just not for them leave. OF COURSE there was going to be less subs after 6 months... Ah dah. Its an mmo thats how things work.

[Frostvein]

I always keep trying. But stating facts around here get you labeled an EA employee. Which, I think, shoots themselves in the foot, hehe.

 

How is 2.4 million minus 1.1 million equaling 1.3 subs anything but a fact?

[Wolfeisberg]

Well, now subs are down 25.000001% since I just cancelled mine. Just bored, FPs weren't fun anymore, Ops weren't fun anymore, PVP wasn't fun anymore, didn't feel like levelling a toon to 50 would be fun the 5th time around, so I'm out. Not even sure where I'm going. Back to LOTRO? Probably not. On to D3? Nope, doesn't interest me at all. Waiting for GW2? Might give it a try, if it ever comes out. For now I'll focus on walking my dog, riding my motorcycle, and just enjoying the warm weather. Hey, I live in Calgary, we don't get much warm weather!

 

And no, you can't have my stuff.

 

sooo, what you are telling us is that you are going to play Real Life MMO. Careful I heard that game is hardcore, even has perma death

[arcdaemon]

t

How is 2.4 million minus 1.1 million equaling 1.3 subs anything but a fact?

Dont even bother these nuns can't handle the truth.

[Goretzu]

You are placing a bias on the numbers that cannot be confirmed factually. Like it or not, the growth or not of a given game is made up of hundreds of thousands of such 'anecdotes'. Additionally, I was debunking the statement that simply because 2.4M sold and 1.3 subscribe that somehow all 1.1M of those players hate the game. You cannot make that statement any more reliably than I can the opposite (which is why I didn't). Nor can you infer a given customer profile to be a common one. MMOs are by their very nature fluctuating beasts especially in times of financial hardship.

 

In short, you're making it up. I am merely pointing out that you are doing so, not attempting to make up my own interpretation. 500k people left TOR since launch. That's the facts. Anything else as to why is hundreds of thousands of anecdotes coupled with inherent player bias. Certainly some left because they don't like the game. How many is unknown. You seem to be uncomfortable with 'don't know' and prefer to fill in the blanks with your own viewpoint. I find that a pity.

 

You mention statistically insignificant. Please back up such statements with actual evidence. Alternatively you could continue to resort to insults.

 

Edit: Re-read this and it sounds a bit harsh. I don't mean you personally I am merely irritated by the huge Grand-Canyon-spanning assumptions being thrown around.

 

 

Also the chances of 1.3m subs being 1.3m active subs is pretty much 0 too.

[Valkirus]

since people uses the 30days to claim inflated numbers ill use the convenient scroll of resurrection 20 days before Wows numbers

 

Not the same thing. The players who accept the scroll of resurrection have to resub. Thus become a "paying sub" player. Those who got the free 30 days really did not have to "accept" that. It was added automatically.

Edited May 13, 2012 by Valkirus

[DarthVindictus]

How is 2.4 million minus 1.1 million equaling 1.3 subs anything but a fact?

 

Because drones think that there's more people who bought the game and just never installed it than those who bought it, installed it, and cancelled sub immediately just playing the free month and not subscribing any longer than that.

 

Chances are, the majority of that gap between 2.1 million copies sold and 1.7 million subscriptions in February was people who only played the free month and chose not to subscribe. There's no way there's 300-400k people who bought the game and just never installed it and only a fraction of those being people who played the first month and didn't subscribe for longer. It is much more likely that the reverse is true.

 

But some fanboys just can't accept that people might abandon ship that fast after they realized they were on the HMS TORtanic. They come up with all sorts of excuses that maybe happened to a few people, but the majority is going to be people cancelled right out the gate.

[Melysintat]

The drop will be much more prominent soon. There are many people who have cancelled, but still have a month or more remaining who will never be back. I'd guess it's more than 80% have stopped playing and as the subs run out that are no longer being played the true numbers will begin to show on the profit and loss sheets. If transfers or mergers to not happen soon those numbers will continue to drop even further. I can see this game dropping to 5% of the starting numbers within 3 months.

[Valkirus]

Yes, the reason YOU enjoyed it. I know some in my own guild that spacebarred from day one.

 

Yes. Myself and several others who have posted the same thing on the forums. I think it is clear it is one of the strong points of TOR. Even BioWare pushed it as a big feature of the game. To say it is'nt, is not being aware of the publicity which was done for TOR and what many have advocated as one of it's shining features. The big difference is however, it is not a feature that will keep a lot of players around for the long term, but rather just a attracting, temporary feature which fades away after you have experenced it.

[princey]

The drop will be much more prominent soon. There are many people who have cancelled, but still have a month or more remaining who will never be back. I'd guess it's more than 80% have stopped playing and as the subs run out that are no longer being played the true numbers will begin to show on the profit and loss sheets. If transfers or mergers to not happen soon those numbers will continue to drop even further. I can see this game dropping to 5% of the starting numbers within 3 months.

 

Wow. Just wow... You're saying that less than 500k are still playing right now and that it'll drop off to 120k within 3 months. You're doing a hefty amount of assuming in the first place by saying that the majority of the people subscribed have actually quit and are awaiting their expiration date. That's just as bad as some others assuming that a large number of players own a box and never subscribed, or cancelled and are waiting to come back.

[Mighty-Moose]

Even in WoW i read through all my quest the first time through, but story is NOT a lasting point to keeping Subs(in the long term) for a large portion of the player base, especially when your story quests have ZERO affect on OP/FP story arcs. I watched every cut scenes my first time through then after that the next 2 characters i watched only the new story arc and every once and awhile a new cut scene from a different choice in a side quest.