spellegren Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 (edited) http://www.torstatus.net/shards/us/trends Shows everything that anyone needs to know. Pretty good population numbers that start to drop off right around the time that 1.2 was announced. The numbers drop off a bit leading up to 1.2, then there is a flurry of activity between 12 April and 23 April as everyone is logging in to check out the new content. It takes about 2 weeks for people to realize that 1.2 is complete and utter garbage and everything tanks from there. The snowball effect takes over as more people leave because they have no one to play with and getting a group or queue pop is few and far between. Now mix in Bioware not having a working character transfer system and a glaring lack of relationship with the community on their forums, along with a few competing games being released, and you have the ultimate recipe for disaster. Of course we're still in the midst of this crisis and numbers haven't bottomed out yet. There is still no solution to any of the problems, nor any solid information on how they plan to fix it. The most we've seen is an Associate Online Community Manager the same old "we're listening", "soon" and "we can't always say" and a Tweet saying we might have more information next week. Keep in mind that this info is going to be on transfers and 1.3, if they implement it in time they might stem some of the population loss and at least consolidate players so we have some thriving servers. Unfortunately they aren't going to address the real problem - 1.2 was a giant regression for Star Wars: The Old Republic. You can transfer and merge all you want, but if the the game isn't fun to play at endgame then people will continue to spend their entertainment dollars elsewhere. Ultimately SWTOR will end up as the biggest failure of a mainstream MMO to date, taking that crown from Warhammer and hopefully taking EA out of the MMO genre completely. Edited May 18, 2012 by spellegren Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FITorion Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 (edited) What I'm taking from this is servers support much smaller populations than they should... I expected servers to support upwards of 20-30 thousand concurrent players. Or an order of magnitude more than the servers are supporting. 3000? that should be a very light day for a server... I love this game but at 3000 being a full server... this isn't an MMO. 3000 does not equal massively multiplayer. This is a single player game with some multiplayer functionality. I will play it as such. I'm not going anywhere. Edited May 18, 2012 by FITorion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lundli Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I expected servers to support upwards of 20-30 thousand concurrent players. Tell me wich game, apart from Eve, that supports that many concurrent users? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpienne Posted May 18, 2012 Author Share Posted May 18, 2012 As a point of order, the numbers I posted are for the 24 hr average population over the last two weeks of characters that are actually logged in. So if you believe only 10% of the population is active at once, multiply those numbers by 10 - in which case Fatman might have 20,000 players. I have no real data about how much of the total population on a server is logged in at once either in terms of characters or subscriptions. Paige Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FITorion Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 (edited) Tell me wich game, apart from Eve, that supports that many concurrent users? FFXI supported 20,000 in 2002. That's what I expected as a minimum for this game. As a point of order, the numbers I posted are for the 24 hr average population over the last two weeks of characters that are actually logged in. So if you believe only 10% of the population is active at once, multiply those numbers by 10 - in which case Fatman might have 20,000 players. I have no real data about how much of the total population on a server is logged in at once either in terms of characters or subscriptions. Paige that helps a little. Still 3000 sounds like "light" to me. Edited May 18, 2012 by FITorion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arlbo_Nabbins Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 (edited) Tell me wich game, apart from Eve, that supports that many concurrent users? MMORPG's? I cant think of any that come close. I can think of one that has in excess of 130k but while its server based like an RPG its not an RPG. Edited May 18, 2012 by Arlbo_Nabbins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovokor Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 What I'm taking from this is servers support much smaller populations than they should... I expected servers to support upwards of 20-30 thousand concurrent players. Or an order of magnitude more than the servers are supporting. 3000? that should be a very light day for a server... I love this game but at 3000 being a full server... this isn't an MMO. 3000 does not equal massively multiplayer. This is a single player game with some multiplayer functionality. I will play it as such. I'm not going anywhere. I've noticed that sometime back as well and posted as much many times. The original architecture /decisions made regarding the server shards seem to have been a major cause of population problems. There should NEVER have been be ques at launch in December with such small populations in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erictlewis Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 So last night during prime time I saw the following. Heavy = 2 servers, Standard = 6, All the rest was light. So we have 95 servers that I count. So if you take the math that guy came up with of how many are playing then I came up with this. So an average of 250 players x 87 servers i= 21,750 players max for the light severs 3000 x2 servers for heavy = 6000 players for heavy 2000 x 6 = 1200 players for standard Well 21750 + 2000 + 6000 = 29,750 players playing according to that math. Where is the rest of those 1.3 million subs at? Those numbers are far less than the 35k that was playing swg before it was put down. These are not good numbers after only a few months after release. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Puppup Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 (edited) Fleet is not any good indicator of population. If anything, it's a poor estimate of population because the levelling process doesn't have too many quests on the fleet. You'd be better off in Coruscant or Dromund Kaas. The *best* way is for the fine folks at http://www.torstatus.net to do the work for you OR to census both sides of your server by level band using /who. For what it's worth, here are today's top 20 US servers. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aregkvys5QFodFJ2OWN5U0hwaVFBYWdqUUh1WmdZUFE#gid=15 The Fatman (PvP US East) Population ≈ 2102.5 Jedi Covenant (PvE US East) Population ≈ 1180 The Harbinger (PvE US West) Population ≈ 940 The Swiftsure (PvP US West) Population ≈ 870 Drooga's Pleasure Barge (PvE US West) Population ≈ 840 Canderous Ordo (PvE US East) Population ≈ 800 Ajunta Pall (RP PvP US West) Population ≈ 690 The Ebon Hawk (RP PvE US East) Population ≈ 680 Lord Adraas (RP PvE US East) Population ≈ 680 Jung Ma (RP PvP US East) Population ≈ 670 Mind Trick (PvE US East) Population ≈ 560 The Shadowlands (PvE US East) Population ≈ 550 Zakkeg Beast (PvE US West) Population ≈ 550 Shadow Hand (PvE US East) Population ≈ 540 Darth Sion (PvE US West) Population ≈ 500 Krayt Dragon (PvE US East) Population ≈ 500 Sanctum of the Exalted (RP PvE US East) Population ≈ 500 Lord Ieldis (RP PvE US West) Population ≈ 500 Begeren Colony (RP PvE US West) Population ≈ 500 Vrook Lamar (RP PvE US West) Population ≈ 500 These are the top 20? Only one is healthy, Fatman 500 - 600 pops are enemic. Edited May 18, 2012 by Puppup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spellegren Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Well 21750 + 2000 + 6000 = 29,750 players playing according to that math. Where is the rest of those 1.3 million subs at? Those numbers are far less than the 35k that was playing swg before it was put down. These are not good numbers after only a few months after release. Let's round that up and call it 30k active players during prime time hours, and then take this snippet: So if you believe only 10% of the population is active at once... Paige That is an estimated total active population of 300k players for North American servers. That 1.3 million number was from the end of EAs 4th quarter, which was at the end of March. Patch 1.2 drove most of the population away and we won't really know how bad it is until July, after EAs Q1 ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpienne Posted May 18, 2012 Author Share Posted May 18, 2012 (edited) Well 21750 + 2000 + 6000 = 29,750 players playing according to that math. Where is the rest of those 1.3 million subs at? Heh, okay, I did this math for all servers already... check this out... https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aregkvys5QFodFJ2OWN5U0hwaVFBYWdqUUh1WmdZUFE#gid=15 Look to the right side, and you'll see the population breakdown. As of this morning, I estimate that the 24 hr average number of characters logged into all the servers together is 83,194 characters. Obviously, that's not the whole population. We don't have any real data on what percent of the population is active at any one time. Some folks have suggested 10%, but I just don't know. If we've got 83,000 people playing at any one time... and if you think that's 10% of the population... then that's 800,000 subscriptions. Paige Edited May 18, 2012 by Scorpienne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxil Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I'd wager at least 50-75% of a servers pop is on during prime time however. And looking at fleet is a very good way to determine server health, especially on PVE servers as it is the main hub to nearly all grouping events. PVP servers it is the home to the vendors and the quest board. Despite what you might gather from the fail that is torstatus (I say this because BW can and has changed what numbers make 'standard' and 'lite' etc. appear) and not knowing the whether the people who are leveling using /who are alts or not, looking at fleet is the best way to determine how social (and I use that word very loosely here) your server is going to be in regards to its health and economy. Anyway, my main tidbit here, is that if you're one a server with less than about 800-1000 people, anytime other than prime time is going to be very very quiet. Some of those top 20 servers boast less than 25 people in fleet at prime time as it is, the server should be considered dead. But I don't really care now, I moved. But I am very interested in what BW is going to do next, in regards to how many servers are eventually going to remain open, and how the transfer process is going to work. If they muck it up it could end up a lot worse than the 1.2 exodus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulwyf Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I'm not surprised that Sith Wyrm my Empire server and Rubat Crystal my Repub servers aren't even in the top twenty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Puppup Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 800,000 would not surprise me. Active subs are likely higher. May 25th is the last of the prepurchase free time. So their eps call of 1.3 million active subs seems fair. I am an active sub, courtesy of the free time given. I hardly log in at all, and won't after the 25th. I will, however, re-up from time to time. Game has not been the best investment by EA, for the time and money involved, and Lucas's fee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erictlewis Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 That was an interesting spread sheet, so I am on Tarro Blood number 79 in the populated server list. I knew things were bad. All one has to do is log in and go to the fleet and various plannets and count. I usually get between 250-300 a night that way. So those numbers are spot on. Mergers/transfers going to happen soon, but what ones to go to and how. Do we loose legacy options and so forth. I never seen a game go in the tank so quickly, it usually takes years before you start having these type of population issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Puppup Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I never seen a game go in the tank so quickly, it usually takes years before you start having these type of population issues. Every AAA MMO release post WoW has had tsunami-like numbers, then a sharp drop off. Players scream about queues, developers release more servers, leading to ghost towns a few months down the road. The BW solution, might have worked, if the game pop had grown, not shrank. They misjudged their market by a wide margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpienne Posted May 18, 2012 Author Share Posted May 18, 2012 I'd wager at least 50-75% of a servers pop is on during prime time however. Sure. That's as fair as any guess I've heard. We just don't know, though, so if someone else thought it was 10% and someone else thought it was 40% we've got no way to tell. Everyone is going to have to decide for himself what's reasonable. If that works for you, go for it. And looking at fleet is a very good way to determine server health, especially on PVE servers as it is the main hub to nearly all grouping events. Hm. I think we'll have to agree to disagree. It all depends on whether people are levelling or doing flashpoints. I know that I spend probably 90% of my time levelling... so I'm not often on the fleet. If most people are like me, then fleet's not a good way to understand the population. Really, the only way to understand the population is to /who both sides of a server by level band. I do that to my own server on a fairly frequent basis. (http://www.thethirtheenthlegion.torportal.com, click survey on the right, and follow the link to the data.) Even the 50s in my guild spend a fair amount of time doing dailies, which means they're not in the fleet. Or they're in warzones or flashpoints, which means they're not in the fleet. If you wanna use fleet to determine server population status, go ahead. I don't think I will though. Despite what you might gather from the fail that is torstatus (I say this because BW can and has changed what numbers make 'standard' and 'lite' etc. appear) Yep, I'm sure they do. That's why this guy went and checked server population many times (a hundred or so times) right after it changed status. http://inquisitive-myths.blogspot.com/2012/05/population-numbers-behind-server-status.html He found that he had a range of numbers for each category. Part of that is because people log on and log off in the time it takes him to /who every level band in both factions, and part of that is because server designations either changed or are different between servers. Paige Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhysling Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Well last night Krayt Dragon was listed as: Standard - is up to about 1,500 We had 3 people in Fleet and 27 players total on the Republic side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpienne Posted May 18, 2012 Author Share Posted May 18, 2012 Well last night Krayt Dragon was listed as: Standard - is up to about 1,500 We had 3 people in Fleet and 27 players total on the Republic side. Wow... that's crazy! I wonder if KD just has a really ginormous Imp population or if BW dialed back what standard means or if KD just has a reall small population cap? This is why I'm a big fan of actually going in and /who-ing the server by level band to get the actual number of people. Of course, that take so much longer than just going to torstatus.net... Paige Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TaekwondoJ Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 The most unpopulated Servers in the US based on torstatus.com Keetael Krayiss Obelisk Khoonda Militia Infinity Gate The Courageous Firkrann Crystal Cho Mai Anturi Reach Whitebeam Run Veela Hedarr Soongh Kinrath Spider Ki-Ta Kren Hanharr Firaxan Shark Zez-Kai Ell Master Dorak Nathema Rwookrrorro Sedyn Kyne The Deadweight Thendys Noori Gardens of Talla Fort Garnik Telos Restoration Project Axial Park Colonel Tobin Crevasse City The Crucible Pits Eidolon Security The Defenestrator Davik's Estate Bondar Crystal Terentatek Naddist Rebels The Constant Infinite Empire Mandalore the Indomitable Death Wind Corridor The Twin Spears Rakata Mind Prison Saber of Exar Kun Port Nowhere The Maw Shadowtown Black Vulkars Vulkar Highway Prophecy of the Five The Corsair The Bastion Belgoth's Beacon Anchorhead Wound in the Force ICE Breaker Daragon Trail Kathol Rift Kath Hound Sword of Ajunta Pall Iron Citadel Warriors of the Shadow Nadd's Sarcophagus Darth Malak Thana Vesh Master Gnost-Dural The most underpopulated servers in Europe Niman Tassaa Bareesh Ahto City Scepter of Ragnos The Kumumgah The Shadow Runner Tott Doneeta Ula Vii Senator Contispex Kai-kan The Exile's Crystal Chuundar Uthar Wynn Trayus Academy Hex Droid The Ravager Eye of Ashlanae Dxun Battle Circle The Arkanian Legacy Sith'ari Basilisk Droid Ludo Kressh Kellian Jarro Sluis Shipyards Bloodworthy Starstorm One Flames of the Crucible Rogue Moon Hydian Way i play Khoonda Militia and never can find a group. however PvP isn't really all to bad for 10-49 i still play regularly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpienne Posted May 18, 2012 Author Share Posted May 18, 2012 i play Khoonda Militia and never can find a group. however PvP isn't really all to bad for 10-49 i still play regularly And that's the thing that no amount of this kind of math can account for. What makes a server active is partly the size of the population but also partly the interest of the population in grouping up or queuing for PvP and playing together. Paige Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revan-the-knight Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I still don't see why they decided that a full server should have around 3000 people. Based on studies calculated on WoW, on an average around 10% of a server's pop is online at a time. So, that's around 300 people on an average on a full server. That's very low. bioware said that They have new tech that Doubles the amount of peopel available to put inside a server, but they didnt have it at launch, so i Think when they make Server merges they are gonna squeese in ALOT of players Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-Dench Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 bioware said that They have new tech that Doubles the amount of peopel available to put inside a server, but they didnt have it at launch, so i Think when they make Server merges they are gonna squeese in ALOT of players That would be fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpienne Posted May 18, 2012 Author Share Posted May 18, 2012 bioware said that They have new tech that Doubles the amount of peopel available to put inside a server, but they didnt have it at launch, so i Think when they make Server merges they are gonna squeese in ALOT of players Really? That would be great! Would you please link the source? Paige Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shirvington Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Very informative. Thank you, OP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts