Thinias Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Okay, lets have some fun with napkin math. Let's assume you have 1 million subs. Let's assume 10% of those subs are at the level cap. Star Wars is a pretty Western ethnocentric phenomenon, and most of the world speaks English anyways... so let's assume 50% of those 10% speak English. Let's knock off another 50% for people primarily interested in pvp, and another 80% for people who don't regularly play with the same group of people. We now have a napkin-math estimate of the size of the population matching your criteria: 1e6 / 10 / 2 / 2 / 5 is about 5000 users. Now let's consider how easy it is to find this thread, if you think you have a problem: https://www.google.com/search?sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&q=ab%26hl%3Den%26source%3Dhp%26q%3Dhard%2Bmode%2Bflashpoints%2Bare%2Bbroken%2Bloot%26pbx%3D1%26oq%3Dhard%2Bmode%2Bflashpoints%2Bare%2Bbroken%2Bloot%26aq%3Df%26aqi%3Dq-w1%26aql%3D%26gs_sm%3De%26gs_upl%3D2863l4515l3l4561l18l17l0l0l0l0l223l2585l0.11.4l15l0%26bav%3Don.2%2Cor.r_gc.r_pw.%2Ccf.osb%26fp%3Dd91b70ca7a7fc89a%26biw%3D1522%26bih%3D861#sclient=psy-ab&hl=en&source=hp&q=hardmode+flash+points+are+broken&pbx=1&oq=hardmode+flash+points+are+broken&aq=f&aqi=q-w1&gs_upl=4613l7053l0l7115l32l24l0l0l0l0l194l3568l0.22l22l0&pws=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.,cf.osb&fp=d91b70ca7a7fc89a&biw=1522&bih=861 It's the first hit I came across on my first search for something even remotely related - "hardmode flash points are broken", but you never know. There are a few possible competitors. Someone could presumably stumble across one of those competitors, feel satisfied and move along. Then there's some users that just don't post on forums, and that's cool. So lets dock another 75% for that. Now we'll consider priority. I feel like I'm getting jipped on loot! Yeah, super high priority i'm not docking anything here. We're now down to something like 1250 users who are experiencing an issue and made their way to this thread. All of these users have swtor accounts, so there is no barrier to entry and posting that they agree is very easy. Assuming you're correct, most of these users would be agreeing with you and feel similarly upset about the issue. They would also be frequently returning to say things like "okay more data here, check this out". You would expect an average post-per-user of slightly greater than 1, which puts us back in the 1500 ballpark. So yes. Hundreds of pages, based on some quick napkin math. And, fwiw, the last estimate I heard on the number of subscribers was closer to 2 million than 1, so this entire set of napkin math was low from the get-go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dinwitt Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Suppose my group keeps running FE: HM once a day, with identical drops everytime, for a month straight. 3 months straight. A year straight. 10 years straight. No changes in loot drops anytime. How many samples would it take for you to start questioning that the system is not working as intended? What if 10, 100, 1,000, or 1,000,000 other people posted here seeing the same problem? At some point, you must use some critical thinking, to come to the conclusion that the actual results are not aligning with the expected results. The short (and admittedly obnoxious) answer? No finite sample size will do, since the population is constantly growing and it only takes one contrary result (which has been provided by multiple people in this topic) to disprove your hypothesis and the next one could be it. As for the long answer, and I realize that this is probably insulting to someone as familiar with statistics as you are, but there are equations and guidelines out there to tell you, depending on your statistical model, null hypothesis, degree of freedom, etc., what a valid sample size is for your population. There are also factors that sample size can affect, like confidence intervals. Additionally, there are accepted standards for obtaining the sample. Posting a thread on a game's forum like the TC has done, saying he saw a trend and asking if anyone also saw it, is not one of them. The sample needs to be unbiased, which is something that the phrasing of your question implies you don't understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveMcG Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 Does it really matter how small the sample size is? We have 15-20 groups of people who are all experiencing very little variation in loot when running with the same group. It isn't up to us to prove that there is a problem. We are simply trying to gauge if there are others out there and trying to find a common ground as to why this might be happening and hoping BioWare sees this and investigates to see if there is a bug when seeding random loot for static groups. (holy sentence batman) The number of people that say they aren't seeing this is very few compared to those that say they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thoffs Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 (edited) By the arguments in this thread, neither side is correct. You can't prove that there is a problem, and you can't prove that there is not a problem. So, quit trying to argue that there is not a problem (as you can't prove that it is not a problem since you would have to be the ones to go out and collect all the data instead of the original poster), and accept that the OP is simply trying to see if others have observed what he has observed. If you haven't observed it yourself, then don't bother posting in this thread about how stupid the original poster is for thinking there is a problem. Go post in some other thread that is relevant to *your* concerns. Nobody cares that you are an expert in statistics; find another thread to try to impress people in. Edit: I have seen enough talk in my guild chat to think that there is a problem, and my personal experience has left me with the same impression. So, I am sympathetic to the OP. Edited January 31, 2012 by Thoffs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLapp Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 The number of people that say they aren't seeing this is very few compared to those that say they are. If you haven't observed it yourself, then don't bother posting in this thread about how stupid the original poster is for thinking there is a problem. hmmmm...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveMcG Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 hmmmm...... I have asked many times for people who run with the same group all the time that are NOT experiencing this to post.. It's just that there have been very few of them compared to the people that DO have the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinias Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 (edited) While I admit the post was long and probably got TL;DR'ed by a lot of people... my very first post was me indicating that I have experienced similar issues to the OP. Many many runs with smuggler tokens, useless gear, etc... A minimum of 17 runs before a single piece of light willpower tanking gear dropped. I attempted, during the first half of that thread, to indicate I am sympathetic to the situation. Perhaps the effect was lost in the message of the second half of the thread. At any rate, I am sympathetic to the situation. But I do not believe this is a bug. I have already stated my reasons for such and won't repeat them. I mostly just sincerely believe you are wasting your time looking for an issue that doesn't exist, and hope that you do not continue to do so. EDIT: I have asked many times for people who run with the same group all the time that are NOT experiencing this to post.. It's just that there have been very few of them compared to the people that DO have the issue. I tried to explain this already, so I will leave by reiterating it, since your post happened to be on my screen as I was saving. "Because for the 1000:1 ratio of people who aren't experiencing issues... they never make their way to this thread. They never have a reason to." I will leave this thread, as requested. Good luck. Edited January 31, 2012 by Thinias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madprophetus Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 11 out of 13 runs is not just unlucky.. It's ridiculously unlucky. If the system is using something static to set the seed, or we are somehow getting the same "random" seed, it's not going to be random loot. It's not just false emp... If we use the same 4 guys, we seems to get nearly identical loot from most bosses. We're talking 2-3 hard modes a day. It's pretty easy to say RNG is RNG when you don't do the math. We're talking a 1 in hundreds of thousands of chance to see 11 out of 13 be the same. Hell, we might be into the millions by now. It's clear, as I've stated before, that the skinner mechanics are set so brutally in this game as to make them obvious. We see it with loot drops, reverse engineering, pvp bags. It's everywhere. Some suit at EA is probably calling the shots with this stuff. Afterall, EA has a huge bet on the table that we'll be willing to keep our subscriptions active. Best make gearing very difficult to keep the hamster pushing the lever... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bdononovan Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 My group has been having the same problem we switch out our healers. but we have been running HM taral v for two weeks and smuggler tokens have dropped 11/14.. we have been running HM Maelstorm Prision for 8 days and every time it has been smuggler gear. finally we have been running HM Essless three times and all three times smuggler gear its extremely frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Obscur Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Please, remove class restriction from barter items. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartyCZE Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 (edited) ever since yesterday we've run 7 HMs, and 7 of those times an IA columi token dropped. Either we were really unlucky, or there's something wrong. 6 of those times we were BH DPS, Sorc healer, Jug tank and Operative dps. The seventh time we swapped op for assassin dps, still IA gear dropped. There just has to be something wrong 7 out of 7 isn't just bad luck... Never had that problem before yesterday tho. Edited February 1, 2012 by MartyCZE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raeken Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 50 Hardmodes now ... 1 Knight and 3 Consulars. Saw just one piece of Consular-Token dropping. 70% Soldier, 20% Smuggler, 8% Knight and 2% Consular Tokens ... absolut frustrating in a static with 3 Consulars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbwilly Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I feel your pain. Been running hm's with a set group of a jug tank, me as a merc healer, and a sorc dps and assassin dps. We have completly geared our out all our IA companions in full T2. In the new instance alone, we've had 8 IA helms 8 sith war helms.... in a row, same with agent, 2 inquisitors and a whopping 0 bh pieces. So far loot has been 75% IA, 15% war, 9% inquis and being generous, 1% bh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KiranK Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Don't worry guys, when the patch comes out they'll say this problem is fixed, but everything will be the exact same. The only difference is you'll have to download another 200 megs of garbage before you can log into the game. Viva la Bioware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daltin Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 We've had the issue of Heavy Aim/Bounty Hunter gear dropping greater than 80-85% of all drops. Tonight, we're starting a log of what every boss drops from here on out. Our composition is as follows: Assassin Tank, Assassin DPS, Marauder, Bounty Hunter Merc. Boran - Bounty Hunter Belt Ghulil - Bounty Hunter Legs GXR-7 - Bounty Hunter Ear Yadira - Bounty Hunter Columi Wrists. Bioware needs to Address this issue, NOW. This is -NOT- RNG, as others have stated, it's occuring constantly in people who run the same groups of 4. The 4 of us have been doing Hardmodes for the better part of 2 weeks now, and this is what every boss looks like. It's frustrating enough being on Crevasse City, a place with 15 people on Fleet at prime time. It's even more frustrating when the two DPS or Tank cannot get any gear. I'll bump this thread every single boss fight I do from here on out with results until I/We get a Bioware message that says they are at LEAST looking into this. I sent in a ticket asking for a Live Representative, and got automated Droid W6-60 instead. SHOW US YOU CARE, Bioware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vastian Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 What is the solution you're looking for? Once every member of your group has, say, the bracers that drop off of a boss, what do you want to drop? How many times do you think you should have to run to get the piece you need? I still want to be able to gear out my companions just as well as myself, so keep that in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RicardoL Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 This drop rate is really wrong, I've done already more than 8 False Emperor, killed 4 Soas, and I still don't have a Columi Chest, while others of my guilds who made a lot less of False Emperor's and Soas have already more than 2 Columi Chests, one of then have 4 Columi Chest...I gave up already trying to get this Chest, I will go for the Rakata's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daltin Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 There has to be some algorithm they've used for loot that has something horribly wrong. This issue is present for groups that continually run together. That's the only common thread here. The types of loot that drops for each group is different.. All Aim, all Cunning, or all Strength, etc. But the common thread is it's the same 4 people running together. It's obvious to everyone who has experienced this first hand, that something is terribly wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gatsuo Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Please, remove class restriction from barter items. /bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arngrim Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I luckily rarely have this problem as we usually run with myself as a Vanguard (Tank), Shadow (DPS) Sentinel (DPS) and Scoundrel (Healer) so no matter what drops we can usually use it. However I have noticed that Trooper gear seems to drop like candy and I rarely see knight gear. I have done 5 HM FPs so far and I am 4/5 Columi as well as Energized pants and a few other random purples while our sentinel is still in his old gear. All he got was a lightsaber thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
targetrein Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 heh... interesting how people are getting a lot of smuggler / IA gear. I've done 14 HMs in a row without an IA drop (I'm a sniper). Needless to say, I'm quite frustrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gerrard_Ennui Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Please, remove class restriction from barter items./signed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KiranK Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Please, remove class restriction from barter items. /thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elyons Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 (edited) Well if your talking about gear pieces, then you should know that the flashpoints drop something different each. Read the HM gear up sticky in this forum and you find out what flashpoints drop which pieces of gear. If your talking about receiving the same drop over and over again - then yes. There is very little variance. Ive ran Maelstrom 4 times so far and have not received a single smugger drop. Its all been Jedi Knight Edited February 2, 2012 by Elyons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daveytech Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 We ran HM Kaon and D7 last night. Kaon: 1x BH Hat / 1x SI Hat (wow - our 2nd piece of SI columi in nearly 3 weeks!) D7: 1x BH Columi legs So, we went 2 for 3 on getting repeat BH drops. We were quite excited to get the Columi hat. We're rotating Columi drops between our inquisitors because they are so rare. We had one heck of a time with the Kaon Bonus boss. Fun fight. Our strategy seems solid now. Bulwark in D7... whoa. This fight sure is different. In our case, the healer had to DPS like a mad man to beat the timer. Oh, he dropped BH loot btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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