From a Goldman Analyst Perspective on SWTOR

[Bodypull]

If they were current with a large number of the subscriber base, then yes, I'd blame it on the engine / coding.

 

As it stands though, most people are able to log in and play just fine.

 

Also, if TOR can't give you good customer service, what makes you think Arenanet will be any better?

 

Nothing

 

and people can play ... that's not the core issue :-)

 

You can play everquest and FF11 still as well :-)

 

Why don't you? Why doesn't he?

 

Your reasons will differ, but you can come up with a couple obvious and a couple universal reasons, these concepts govern the masses, and can reasonably be applied to the question ..

 

Why play SWTOR? (in it's current state.)

 

My reason is hope (I hope the fix the bugs)

 

My fallback (Diablo 3)

 

Im not bored yet so the world is good :-)

 

Lets revisit this forum post in 45 days.

[pocketthesaurus]

This game launched well, but the problem is, its a crap game overall. WoW's launch was terrible but it was worth sticking around because it was a good game.

Two years later, maybe. Vanilla WoW was a pile of crap.

[freakuancy]

GW2

 

This is interesting.

 

NCSOFT failed with Aion, but did reasonably well with GW's (but took awhile to catch on.)

 

GW's actually grew (net/net) and simplified many mechanics as a wow clone in many aspects.

 

The game assumed its own identity however and many people played as an alternate to wow, and even more so since it was free to play (F2P)

 

There is definitely buzz about GW2, but I caution EQ2. In that, the same buzz and a dismal result.

 

Some of these factors are outlying ... and what I mean is this.

 

In the near future you have Diablo III launching. Most warcraft players will play both WOW and D3 or shift entirely to D3. There time is usually split in first person shooters or MOBA genre titles like League of Legends (up over 5 million players.)

 

MOBA has DOTA2 launching, and pulls from the GW/GW2 player base, as does Star Wars (GW2 will be a likely alternate,) and of course GW2 will pull from the warcraft database.

 

NA/EU share about 9.5 million MMO/MOBA players (that pay subs) - so the GW2 market share (since its F2P) will likely be around 1.5-2 million units bought in its 1st month. I expect that more will give GW2 a chance (or simply buy the game.) to try it or because they are bored of TOR/WOW/FF/Aion ect ....

 

GW2 launches with 8 interesting professions and delves back into the fantasy universe we are all used to. They did much with GW's, so I expect a more polished release and a great game overall.

 

Down the road, say Bioware fixes the bugs in the game ect, I expect the choice between the two to be preference / flavor ... sci-fi vs fantasy. (excluding the SW fan base to a degree.)

 

Keep in mine there is a darkhorse, in 38studios. Curt Schilling, the Boston Red Sox pitcher was one of the biggest fanboys and nerd of all time :-) Most of us talk about making an MMO, and the things we would do, he had both the funds and clout to do so, attracting some very talented engineers, animators and story tellers. They are taking time, releasing an RPG before the MMO, polishing it and learning from the successes and failures of other companies.

 

Down the road you have Blizzard (Project TITAN) and a few more Eastern MMOs trying to get back into the western market.

 

So, near term I would say do what your heart tell you to do. Try D3, and play GW2. OR stick with Srar wars and try GW2 when it launches. The choice is yours, but the game (GW2) will do very well and be a solid game.

 

 

Finally you have something intelligent to say.

 

From a design perspective, the Kingdoms of Amalur IP looks like it may very well be the best new property to hit the market in years. And we all know Ken Rolston's track record.

[Bodypull]

Something that is bothering me, you are stating that SWTOR is losing players daily, now I understand how you could come up with such an analysis if data to suggest such things even existed, but at this current moment, how can such data accurately exist?

 

The games free month has not even expired, subscription to the game has not even happened yet, there is no accurate data to even determine the number of subscribers currently past the number of sales. So tell me, where do you get the information that players are quitting daily? Wouldn't the only logical suggestion of amount of players be the number of subscribers?

 

And if no accurate data on subscribers even exists yet, how is it that you, a "Goldman analyst" could make such an assumption about subscriber base when such data in it's current form is not indicative of actual subscriber base?

 

Answer? Either you are a terrible analyst, or a liar. Most likely both.

 

Daily,

 

CAP IQ metrics

 

People from my server leaving / friends server leaving.

 

Looking for new accounts (not rerolls on same account)

 

Forum statements (on this forum, MMO champ ect)

 

Talks with friends

 

General query

 

Crude research, but honest results. People are leaving. I can say that with certainty, and while the reasons vary, the fact remains there are near game breaking issues forcing people out the door.

 

Just because it is NOT game breaking for you, it IS game breaking for others.

 

Need more proof. Just look around. See how many raids / FPs are occurring, make an honest attempt to gather data / intelligence and query general / friends / 50 channel or random people you meet, and ask them the basic questions.

 

I stated in my post aside from analytics and metrics, the rest is a hedge / bet. Im tired of responding to people taking parts of my posts out of context because they are too lazy to read it or too hasty to try to prove they are some superior omnipotent authority that I should bow before.

 

Please read my post and stop taking things out of context, thanks.

[Jhonen]

The choice is yours, but the game (GW2) will do very well and be a solid game.

 

I love when people say this.

 

Especially when the devs only show you videos they want you to see, and play demos at conventions that they want you to play.

[Kashaan]

I come back from lunch and this is still going? o.O

 

1) The dude is obviously not an analyst, and it's a logical fallacy for him to even use that in his argument (Argument from authority).

 

2) Half of the OP is flat-out false information, and the other half is subjective feeling and speculation. Nothing but another doomsday/threaten-to-get-results post from an obsessed WoW fan.

Edited January 6, 2012 by Kashaan

[Jhonen]

... to try to prove they are some superior omnipotent authority that I should bow before.

 

Hey, buuuddy.

[Ortof]

Oh great another know-it-all OP. This is surely new and original.

 

Exactly, oh and look. I couldn't help notice "joined Dec 2011" and writing up a long winded "it will fail" thread. I didn't even read most of it just the highlights and I was right.

 

Oh well, 15 days until most are gone.

[Jhonen]

Exactly, oh and look. I couldn't help notice "joined Dec 2011" and writing up a long winded "it will fail" thread. I didn't even read most of it just the highlights and I was right.

 

Oh well, 15 days until most are gone.

 

Coincidence?

[Degarmo]

All MMOs, for the most part, lose people in Weeks 3-6. It's retention rate after that point, and then steady growth after the 6-month point that makes them long-term or not.

 

You will always see people leave games of this genre at this point in the timetable. Not all games are everything to everyone. This game has enough backing behind it as well as a very solid framework/plan for future expansion. I would invest in this game and not worry about any dropoff numbers after the first few weeks.

 

Every game is doomed to fail, check out boards of any game. Sometimes the fail experts guess correctly, but they're always, ALWAYS out there professing doom.

 

This time, I don't buy it.

[LilPika]

Greetings,

 

Before I start …

 

1) I am level 50 (Jedi Knight / Sentinel)

 

2) I have PvP'd to Valor rank 38

 

3) I have my professions maxed, all datacrons found and most quests in game completed

 

With that said …

 

We all know this game has many bugs and many things that feel / seem unpolished and unfinished. Conversely, what seems unfinished to one person might seem perfectly fine to another (Hardcore vs Casual perspective as one example of contrast.)

 

My post is about the universal functionality that causes most Western market MMO's to fail. I make a great salary predicting this, as most games are initially supported by VC funds, PE funds and other sources of investment, all of which I consult and broker.

 

I have a great track record dating back to World of Warcraft (for successful bets,) predicted the demise of Vanguard, Aion, FF14 and Warhammer. (For advising not to invest.) Some of the reasons were, of course, Western gamers “dislike” grinds and Eastern specific functionality inherent in Korean and Japanese titles attempting to monetize Western markets. That which is commonplace in the East is moderately tolerable in the West, but ultimately rejected, when it comes to certain aspects of the gaming culture.

 

That aside …

 

As an investor, I look at 3 metrics (in MMO's and MOBA genre titles.)

 

1: Audience

 

2: Market Share

 

3: Long term sustainability (after initial growth.)

 

Audience: When you lease an automobile, you either return to the dealer 12-36 months later to buy or lease again (or go elsewhere,) this is called "lease loyalty" and is often identified with the Brand, salesperson or financial constraint. The connotations of the first two are positive in nature, the second, neutral and not applicable to this discussion. Companies such as Blizzard (for example) are successful because they "know how to talk to the people." They have an audience and cater to that audience.

 

What Bioware failed to do was capitalize on there audience and relied on Brand recognition (which is questionable.) This was countered by the negative association of the Electronic Arts brand and clustered by the involvement of Lucas Arts. (a too many Chiefs and not enough Indians syndrome.)

 

So what was left in this wake were Star Wars fans, KOTOR fans, and people curious to start a new game (MMO) from the on start. Unfortunately, most of these "New" players have played Polished MMO's, and have come from other titles to give this one a chance.

 

Like the test drive, if you have the money, you need to be sold from the start. (And most have the money to purchase multiple games and pay the subscription for the one they ultimately settle on.) The salesperson, the test drive ... it all needs to make that first impression, or for the most part, people will return to what they know and like, and reject the new endeavor for reasons such as those found all over the SWTOR forums and this post.

 

We were sold on Star Wars, but the test drive (and lets be honest) is lackluster at best. The audience has spoken on the Forums – about things we dislike and want changed immediately. (Would you settle on a car that had a bad test drive if you could afford something better?) Bioware runs into two problems here

 

1: Engineer talent (are they talented and efficient enough to overhaul and change what’s needed to be changed?)

 

2: Budget (Are enough funds committed to make the changes happen, or are they hedging there losses and preparing for the worst case scenario already?)

 

I suspect it is a bit of both, I advised all my clients to divest of anything to do with EA and Bioware for this vary reason. They needed to attract more talent from the star, BETA test at least another 5-6 months. They should have overstaffed to deal with forum moderation, customer service and bug stomping, among other issues.

 

These issues, listed above, are only the tip of the iceberg; there are some major flaws in this game that are causing droves of customers to leave.

 

Some of them, but not limited to …

 

Combat: In both PVP and PVE, the non fluid ability delay is game breaking in design. It’s workable albeit annoying and needs to be changed. The game will not be successful long term in its current state. The lack of auto attack is one thing, but the ability delay is too much to swallow.

 

Grind: At 50, HM's, PVP ect all become long grinds ... this will cause some to stop playing or eventually lose interest, not due to the grind, but thru faction imbalance, class imbalance and gear disparity in warzones that get boring fairly quickly. (The same maps can be fun if the issues states are resolved, which all link to root and main caused, such as slow combat.) This issue is further compounded by non 50’s facing 50’s in WZ’s.

 

Lack of Community: No server forums, sharding and lag in non-sharded areas ... well, this is a problem … a very huge problem. Community is a huge part of any MMO, the excuse of (“we cannot moderate separate server forums” and “we don’t want to build community on the forums,” is a load of BS, and as an investor question the companies availably of resources, fund and confidence in product.)

 

Lack of Customer support and service: Auto Droid ticket response after 3-4 days is unacceptable. Not being able to speak to a GM, a human being or call into the call center is very problematic, and brings for the concerns of the previous item.

 

Ambiguity: What abilities do, lack of metrics and logs to analyze what occurs in game, no visibility on the future outside secretive of the cuff comments made by some developers ... sorry, learn to talk to the people please, the current state in this respect again, is not acceptable in today’s MMO market.

 

Questions?

 

How do we get white and purple crystal fragments? Are they in game? Do we need to reverse engineer for them? Questions like these should have answers, even if the answer is "sorry, they are not implemented in game yet."

 

End game Ops bugged, Heroic FP's (some encounters) overturned for 2 weeks now - this is unacceptable, sorry. These are the initial OPS, not newly implemented expansions or patches. No excuse.

 

I could go on about the negative niche and non universal things, but that becomes somewhat ideological in essence. The point here is that, this game has potential that is being squandered daily, and people are responding by leaving the game. Most will not return, and this is proven by 10 years of MMO's failing and the habitual patterns of the market / MMO audience, which is about 24-28 million world over.

 

On a personal note; I am willing to give the game a chance, I am staying to see / hope they make these changes and improvements.

 

On a professional note: The damage has already been done, and the chance to monetize on this game / company is long gone.

 

I think Bioware knows this, and it wouldn’t be justified by a company / business to allocate funds to a project that doesn’t have long term growth and sustainability.

 

WOW grew to 11 million. It started at much less. Aion started with 3.5 million, shrunk to under 350k. SWTOR 4-5 million, and is shrinking daily. This shift alone is problematic and often spells doom and gloom for an MMO title. (Just something else to also keep in mind.)

 

The number of subs that are required to sustain this title and the number of subs required to allocate funds for further development is unknown. I assume they will make a profit, but at the cost of quality in customer service and support, delaying game changes and fixes and also delays in other areas.

 

This wasn't as "bad" a launch as many other titles that have been released, but they didn’t get it right either. There are plenty of other options for current customers and even more on the horizon. I hope other companions look at what happened with this game and learn from the errors. Bioware needs to stick to games they do reasonably well, such as Dragon Age. This game would have been better if they consulted with Aion's engine / combat team and hired some folks from Blizzard or other like companies. The current talent pool and experience level of key people it seems is lacking, and the management team pushed the game in a direction that many dislike.

 

If Bioware decides to make another MMO, I hope they base it off ME or DA. If they think they can save the game, then they need to allocate the funds, take the game off line for 1-2 months and relaunch it. Otherwise, we all need to learn to enjoy mediocrity and a game that might have been.

 

Good day and see you all later.

 

Sinius

 

*Sigh* Let me make this clear to you:

 

No one really cares. Don't invest, don't play it, don't buy it. Please don't post on the forum either. I am so BORED of this whining and misery, and doom and effing gloom.

 

If the game fails, it fails. If it succeeds it succeeds, great! No one cares about half baked predictions and 'facts' pulled out of the air. The numbers of people on are falling for a VERY VERY simple reason (Though not on my server, Hydian Way, they went UP the last few days) The holiday's just ended, people are back in school\work and it's mid-week.

 

WHY did you post this? What will this do for the game or for the community? Seriously, i've been on this game since 9PM GMT (It's now gone 4!) I've spent the whole damn night wasting my life away and having a blast with my entire guild! All of us loving every second, a new playing saying "This is the best MMO i've played in years.." Then I check the forums before bed and there is more of THIS crap.

 

If you don't like it, go away, or offer critique. DON'T just spout "OMG THIS GAME WILL FAIL CAUSE STUFF AND THINGS."

Edited January 6, 2012 by LilPika

[Chiricahua]

You put into writing what I kind of feel. This game just makes me feel bad all over. WoW is no picnic, but I can at least tolerate it. The game doesn't feel alive. Maybe it's the way the npc's move, or dont' move. Maybe it's because there are no bugs or birds flying around. The landscape just feels dead and abandoned. All this compounded by no sense of community. Bioware is in it for the fast buck. They will recoup their expenses. Then comes the budget axe. Edited January 6, 2012 by Chiricahua

[atuerstar]

Is this how Goldman Sachs analysts work - fill their reports with misinfomation, lies, and pseudo fortune telling based upon a mixture of faulty information and personal opinion?

 

Real investment analysts work on numbers not self centered whining.

 

I was going to say more but then I remembered investment analyst are professional manipulators capable of making millionaires throw money at vapourware and that actual statistics are anathema to their process.

[Seattlesciren]

If they were current with a large number of the subscriber base, then yes, I'd blame it on the engine / coding.

 

As it stands though, most people are able to log in and play just fine.

 

Also, if TOR can't give you good customer service, what makes you think Arenanet will be any better?

 

Why do you think I was asking, the customer service can't be worse. I suppose "most" people are able to log in, but after 1000 posts and then a new thread started from people who can't due to error 9000, 70+ pages of FPS issues on "horrid FPS" thread, 70 plus on other error threads, 40+ on game crash thread etc..that equals a LOT who can't log on.

[Jhonen]

. Bioware is in it for the fast buck. They will recoup their expenses. Then comes the budget axe.

 

That's why they're doing nightly patches instead of weekly patches to smooth out the bugs and try to retain a player base.

 

Also, it's easy to see they're in it for the fast buck, what with all the teased future content.

 

Yep, BioWare is going to release this game any maybe do something with it down the line...

[Jhonen]

Why do you think I was asking, the customer service can't be worse. I suppose "most" people are able to log in, but after 1000 posts and then a new thread started from people who can't due to error 9000, 70+ pages of FPS issues on "horrid FPS" thread, 70 plus on other error threads, 40+ on game crash thread etc..that equals a LOT who can't log on.

 

You've got a point, but what credit does BioWare get for acknowledging the problem and working to fix it?

[Beansoup]

Hi, I'm Beansoup and I'm an analyst too. I'm also a veteran like most of the internet population. True story. Edited January 6, 2012 by Beansoup

[Tortoises]

tl: dr

 

dont care

 

you arent special and no one cares

[frmorrison]

I wonder why people like doom and gloom so much.

[Wilford]

yeah.

 

Are you an eskimo? Cause I have this awesome refrigerator I can sell you for only 130% of its value.

[Breeti]

I wouldn't put too much stock in this just yet. While there are some valid points made, most would not be truly recognizable until after the game has been out more than what...3 weeks?

 

Bioware has some things to do. Lets see if then do them. Anyways, are any of you really planning to go out and buy EA stock based on this one game?

 

You would really want to look at thier portfolio of titles and see where they are going in an overall picture.

 

This isn't thier only fire and shouldn't be the only consideration of sucess for the company.

[Matte_Black]

Any investor who is willing to take forum responses and the customer service experience of one person (himself) as valid reasons to dictate the value of an MMO in the short/long term is a *********** muppet.

 

This is the kind of amateur **** that got people to invest in HD-DVDs.

 

It's well written and insightful but, I feel like parts of the assessment may be clouded by how the OP plays the game and the status quo vision of how MMOs are expected to be. Not that I can say whether his assessments will be wrong or right but, I feel like the post was calling BioWare's design choices that veer from the norm only as flaws as opposed to potential innovation. Again, alot of good insight but, I think the OP slipped into his gamer shoes and lost his objective perspective at points.

[Wilford]

I guess you love losing money, then.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is absolutely true. I am cringing for the smooth and perfect combat of WoW after playing SW:TOR. I renewed my WoW sub yesterday. =)

 

ROFL I and 4 of my friends also re subbed to wow after not playing since 2010... It is like night and day seeing how a real MMO should perform. No ability delay and 11 million frames per second.

 

I'm so tired of hearing the excuse that this game is new when people complain about the performance issues. I have an i7 2600K, 16GB RAM and 2 GTX 580's SLI and this game runs like crap in WZ's. Aion brand new and in beta ran like a champ with graphics that blow SWTOR out of the water.

[SpiffHimself]

definition of tldr

[Dabih]

Please read my post and stop taking things out of context, thanks.

 

I read your entire post, you have some good opinions, absolutely. My issue is that you titled it as if you were a professional.

 

I know you cited some figures, but let me challenge them with what the market believes -

 

"EA shares are up more than 30% for the year to date, though they have slipped about 17.5% from a three-year high of $26.13 on Nov. 4. Still, the stock has easily outperformed its peers in the game sector in 2011."

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/electronic-arts-bets-empire-on-star-wars-2011-12-13

 

Graph here: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/EA

 

Don't know how much faith I'd put in marketwatch myself but the Nasdaq is reporting some crazy positive figures for EA compared to the industry:

 

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ea/analyst-research

 

This is only quick research but seems to indicate most analysts are forecasting positively for EA.