From a Goldman Analyst Perspective on SWTOR

[Nerdwing]

Excellent post, got it pretty much spot on. Bioware spent all this effort time and money on this game, and dropped the ball 5m from the finishing line

 

...the hell kind of sport has you carrying a ball across a finishing line???

[Pacify]

LOL, the awesome kind, which else

[ColonelFlag]

Odd, I guess you can explain to us why you guys failed back in 2008 and almost brought down the US economy too as well as guessing why TOR might fail?

 

Oh, you're track record doesn't take into consideration your failures. At least we, the American public, saved you. Just like we're saving TOR along with help of the rest of the world.

 

Never mind.

 

Maybe Obama will bail out the Empire!

[freakuancy]

Opinions substantiated by a lie and backed up with no data.

 

Great analysis.

 

When Michael Pachter blogs about this game, I will listen -- and make investment decisions, not gameplay decisions.

 

I have no idea why people come onto the forums and lie. You don't even have anything original to say.

 

I will point this out again to anybody who missed it -- if he were an analyst, he just violated his NDA and lost his job. But he wouldn't know that. Because he's not an analysts.

 

Kids these days.

Edited January 6, 2012 by freakuancy

[Seattlesciren]

Great, well informed and knowledgeable post. I concur with every thing you stated.

 

I do have a question for you: what are your professional insights for the game Guild Wars 2? I ask, because after not being able to play for the last week due to all the lag, errors, crashes etc..I am already looking for a new game to take the place of this one ( I know it will still be awhile before released, but I am tired of paying for games only to be used as a tester for a game that isn't ready for release yet released ).

 

I have played MMO"s for twenty years starting with Mud's (Gem) and I am looking for something that won't make me want to pull my hair out and kick my monitor due to the game having un-addressed issues and poor customer service. It is unacceptable to have customers who haven't been able to play the game in weeks and not put out a patch to fix that issue by now, yet put out a patch to apply fixes so you can wave from your mount.

 

I look forward to a response from you since it appears you have an inkling of what is going on in the gaming market or in this game NOT going on.

[Nerdwing]

Great, well informed and knowledgeable post. I concur with every thing you stated.

 

I do have a question for you: what are your professional insights for the game Guild Wars 2? I ask, because after not being able to play for the last week due to all the lag, errors, crashes etc..I am already looking for a new game to take the place of this one ( I know it will still be awhile before released, but I am tired of paying for games only to be used as a tester for a game that isn't ready for release yet released ).

 

I have played MMO"s for twenty years starting with Mud's (Gem) and I am looking for something that won't make me want to pull my hair out and kick my monitor due to the game having un-addressed issues and poor customer service. It is unacceptable to have customers who haven't been able to play the game in weeks and not put out a patch to fix that issue by now, yet put out a patch to apply fixes so you can wave from your mount.

 

I look forward to a response from you since it appears you have an inkling of what is going on in the gaming market or in this game NOT going on.

 

Love your sig. I notice you used a z instead of an s. Is that a girl gamer thing???????

Edited January 6, 2012 by Nerdwing

[Xugos]

OP, you're a 100% right.

 

 

That being said, Goldman Sachs can go (expletive) itself.

Edited January 6, 2012 by Xugos

[Bodypull]

OP, you're a 100% right.

 

 

That being said, Goldman Sachs can go (expletive) itself.

 

I spit on myself too :-)

 

Just here another year ... hopefully.

[Rayvonuk]

I would not trust the OP to professionally analyse the stains on his pants let alone something inolving writing.

[Bodypull]

Arrogant nonsense - he provided no references and expected everyone to take him at his word. He can say whatever he wants about any company and we all swallow it? Never.

 

Until he can provide a list of references and clean up his writing style to a professional standard his opinion is just that. I'm tempted to forward his little "Professional Analyst" post over to Goldman Sachs and see if I hear anything back. I know the response already though - "Thanks for your email, we cannot verify the post's origin and this company does not endorse the author. The opinions presented are his/her own and not the opinions of this company." with perhaps a "Please consider the environment before printing this email" and a list of legalese about distributing said email.

 

I live in the real world of balance sheets, profit and loss and management accounting. I currently design and develop accounting software for the furniture industry, marketing/consumer relations isn't my strong point - but while marketing/consumer relations may affect sales it's the cold hard figures that matter. I suggest we wait until we see the half-yearly report from EA (unless they don't do that in America) - we'll then have some weight behind our arguments that don't depend on the unprofessional, unresearched opinions of a forum user who didn't even give his name.

 

This company will not fail if they have 500K subscribers, and will turn a profit for the company. I.E. It will provide an acceptable return on investment, making it worth continuing to invest in The Old Republic.

 

I cited CapIQ

 

I said they will make a profit but if subs fall they will need to cut in other areas to make a profit and gave the reasons.

 

The rest I clearly stated (I think, in my opinion, ect)

[Crogga]

If you were a fireman I might of read all that. Firemen know what's what.

[Jhonen]

Great, well informed and knowledgeable post. I concur with every thing you stated.

 

I do have a question for you: what are your professional insights for the game Guild Wars 2? I ask, because after not being able to play for the last week due to all the lag, errors, crashes etc..I am already looking for a new game to take the place of this one ( I know it will still be awhile before released, but I am tired of paying for games only to be used as a tester for a game that isn't ready for release yet released ).

 

I have played MMO"s for twenty years starting with Mud's (Gem) and I am looking for something that won't make me want to pull my hair out and kick my monitor due to the game having un-addressed issues and poor customer service. It is unacceptable to have customers who haven't been able to play the game in weeks and not put out a patch to fix that issue by now, yet put out a patch to apply fixes so you can wave from your mount.

 

I look forward to a response from you since it appears you have an inkling of what is going on in the gaming market or in this game NOT going on.

 

Good luck getting a bug-free game, especially one that's F2P.

 

Seriously though, am I the only one that thinks Arenanet won't be able to deliver on many of it's promises with GW2?

[Seattlesciren]

Love your sig. I notice you used a z instead of an s. Is that a girl gamer thing???????

 

Nope, just figured I would be different Plus, it tends to be a girl snowboarderz thing

[Aqualisk]

This is a great analysis. I think the critiques are really well founded. I want the game to succeed desperately like anybody else, but the bottom line is that they did a lot of things wrong with their launch. You only get one first impression and the one they have is not nearly as good as it could/should have been.

[Jhonen]

I cited CapIQ

 

I said they will make a profit but if subs fall they will need to cut in other areas to make a profit and gave the reasons.

 

The rest I clearly stated (I think, in my opinion, ect)

 

You made a lot of assumptions and the passed them off as actively happening and / or fact.

[Stina]

I would not trust the OP to professionally analyse the stains on his pants....

 

It wouldn't take Nostradamus to figure that one out.

[Seattlesciren]

Good luck getting a bug-free game, especially one that's F2P.

 

Seriously though, am I the only one that thinks Arenanet won't be able to deliver on many of it's promises with GW2?

 

I'm not asking for bug free, I am asking for a game that I can at least LOG on and PLAY with customer service that is handled by 1. a person, 2. someone that knows how MMO's work and knows about the game. I wouldn't call the constant crashes, errors etc..bugs..they are major coding issues.

[WLpride]

sounds like someone's been playing WoW too long.

 

I don't think the OP understand the growth of a product, he is expecting a game to be extremely profitable in the first year. That is not a real reality, as you can see the turnout for a extremely popular IP - SW, the turnout in the modest 1-2 million ballbark. Comparing a new original product offering (which not cultured) to a already cultured (and yet growth from good XPAC). To reach the OP expectation you would have to have a intitial audience "trial" base of 8-12 million, which once fallout from 'checking it out' only buyers would settle into the 2-8 million range (very healthy).

 

to compare this all to a real equity investment doesn't really make sense for the game. most of these companies start of very small and likely independantly financed. They also tend to make some of the more quality and passionate games. So really what I'm saying is almost any product should be able to do well given the right circumstances - because so many people are suckers anyway, they will do what everyone else does. Thus a culture is born and which can then possibly become predictable. The market for games really feels alive right now, and many people have extrodinary expectations of new releases. Unrealistic expectations really. IMO it's smarter to start with a SOLID initial offering, gather fans, gather experience and gather momentum and THEN try to create something larger. After all, all you need is a good (or popular) IP.

 

With so many people alive for new games, they are easy targets of marketing hype and advertisement "bait". Notice how some games can do well by releasing updates on a regular basis? That is what I'm talking about. If a game has a great basis to work with, and is still technologically relevant (SW reaction ability is seriously questionalbe atm), then it's probably worth it to dig into that deep dark sack of marketing knowledge to get people excited about a BRAND NEW FRESH UPDATE VERSION. To me, yesterdays announcement about PvP was a SUPER exciting news that we'll see ALL those things by the end of the month.

 

Do you think these guys can get the announced PvP enhancements out by the end of the month? I think so, and it is a sign that these guys can do anything that they want to (or know what to) do.

 

/cheers grammer/spellling

Edited January 6, 2012 by WLpride

[Daesy]

Something that is bothering me, you are stating that SWTOR is losing players daily, now I understand how you could come up with such an analysis if data to suggest such things even existed, but at this current moment, how can such data accurately exist?

 

The games free month has not even expired, subscription to the game has not even happened yet, there is no accurate data to even determine the number of subscribers currently past the number of sales. So tell me, where do you get the information that players are quitting daily? Wouldn't the only logical suggestion of amount of players be the number of subscribers?

 

And if no accurate data on subscribers even exists yet, how is it that you, a "Goldman analyst" could make such an assumption about subscriber base when such data in it's current form is not indicative of actual subscriber base?

 

Answer? Either you are a terrible analyst, or a liar. Most likely both.

Edited January 6, 2012 by Daesy

[Herdsnerfs]

It's a new game. People whine and worry too much. It's fairly polished, a slightly less than average amount of bugs for a new release, has some tried and true features (yes, stolen from prior MMOs.. which they did to the MMOs before them), some new stuff (I think even if it's still the same sorts of quests, the voice-acting makes them 10 times better), and lots of room for growth. Especially in the space combat field.

 

Who cares what some bean counter thinks. If this guy tries to convince folks he talks people out of investing in this company on a daily basis, he is lying through his teeth. I can see it now.. "Johnson and Johnson is up on S&P, there is some growth this week in Apple and Cisco, stock futures are rising after the Italy auction. Oh, and don't invest in Bioware, because like, their combat isn't fluid. There is a delay! Seriously. And like, I don't feel like I exactly rushed to 50, but I am there.. and there is nothing to do! The lack of content is disturbing. So don't invest there."

 

The best thing about the forums is probably a small slice of the playerbase actually read it. They are busy playing. Which I am off to do now. Ciao!

[Nordanvind]

Interesting, but vague.

[Jhonen]

I'm not asking for bug free, I am asking for a game that I can at least LOG on and PLAY with customer service that is handled by 1. a person, 2. someone that knows how MMO's work and knows about the game. I wouldn't call the constant crashes, errors etc..bugs..they are major coding issues.

 

If they were current with a large number of the subscriber base, then yes, I'd blame it on the engine / coding.

 

As it stands though, most people are able to log in and play just fine.

 

Also, if TOR can't give you good customer service, what makes you think Arenanet will be any better?

[Jhonen]

Also, -1 for this thread.

 

Try harder to scare people next time.

[EwokLuvr]

I'm not sure I would advertise being a Goldman employee as a boost to your trustworthiness.

 

It hasn't been that long and you aren't that revered outside of banking circles.

Edited January 6, 2012 by EwokLuvr

[Bodypull]

Great, well informed and knowledgeable post. I concur with every thing you stated.

 

I do have a question for you: what are your professional insights for the game Guild Wars 2? I ask, because after not being able to play for the last week due to all the lag, errors, crashes etc..I am already looking for a new game to take the place of this one ( I know it will still be awhile before released, but I am tired of paying for games only to be used as a tester for a game that isn't ready for release yet released ).

 

I have played MMO"s for twenty years starting with Mud's (Gem) and I am looking for something that won't make me want to pull my hair out and kick my monitor due to the game having un-addressed issues and poor customer service. It is unacceptable to have customers who haven't been able to play the game in weeks and not put out a patch to fix that issue by now, yet put out a patch to apply fixes so you can wave from your mount.

 

I look forward to a response from you since it appears you have an inkling of what is going on in the gaming market or in this game NOT going on.

 

GW2

 

This is interesting.

 

NCSOFT failed with Aion, but did reasonably well with GW's (but took awhile to catch on.)

 

GW's actually grew (net/net) and simplified many mechanics as a wow clone in many aspects.

 

The game assumed its own identity however and many people played as an alternate to wow, and even more so since it was free to play (F2P)

 

There is definitely buzz about GW2, but I caution EQ2. In that, the same buzz and a dismal result.

 

Some of these factors are outlying ... and what I mean is this.

 

In the near future you have Diablo III launching. Most warcraft players will play both WOW and D3 or shift entirely to D3. There time is usually split in first person shooters or MOBA genre titles like League of Legends (up over 5 million players.)

 

MOBA has DOTA2 launching, and pulls from the GW/GW2 player base, as does Star Wars (GW2 will be a likely alternate,) and of course GW2 will pull from the warcraft database.

 

NA/EU share about 9.5 million MMO/MOBA players (that pay subs) - so the GW2 market share (since its F2P) will likely be around 1.5-2 million units bought in its 1st month. I expect that more will give GW2 a chance (or simply buy the game.) to try it or because they are bored of TOR/WOW/FF/Aion ect ....

 

GW2 launches with 8 interesting professions and delves back into the fantasy universe we are all used to. They did much with GW's, so I expect a more polished release and a great game overall.

 

Down the road, say Bioware fixes the bugs in the game ect, I expect the choice between the two to be preference / flavor ... sci-fi vs fantasy. (excluding the SW fan base to a degree.)

 

Keep in mine there is a darkhorse, in 38studios. Curt Schilling, the Boston Red Sox pitcher was one of the biggest fanboys and nerd of all time :-) Most of us talk about making an MMO, and the things we would do, he had both the funds and clout to do so, attracting some very talented engineers, animators and story tellers. They are taking time, releasing an RPG before the MMO, polishing it and learning from the successes and failures of other companies.

 

Down the road you have Blizzard (Project TITAN) and a few more Eastern MMOs trying to get back into the western market.

 

So, near term I would say do what your heart tell you to do. Try D3, and play GW2. OR stick with Srar wars and try GW2 when it launches. The choice is yours, but the game (GW2) will do very well and be a solid game.