Vase Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Sometime in the last few weeks the drop rate has been reduced it is no longer 1 in 4. My guild mates and I have been keeping track and we have a sample size of ~325 bags. The drop rate is approaching 1 in 7 and increasing. If it was just a statistical error or small sample size the ratio should be narrowing but its not. It probably a moot argument with the 1.2 changes. I am really angry that I am supposed to run 45-50 Wz's to get 1 Bm comm and maybe get 1-2 per week from all the weekly dailies. The net result is far less then the 4-6 people got per week before the (hidden) change. Another reason to not play and wait for 1.2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khoraji Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 It is called random for a reason. That is how statistics work. Every time you open a bag, you have a 25% chance to get a BM comm. The fact that you open more bags does NOT increase your chances of getting one. Its just luck of the draw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deridia Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 It is called random for a reason. That is how statistics work. Every time you open a bag, you have a 25% chance to get a BM comm. The fact that you open more bags does NOT increase your chances of getting one. Its just luck of the draw. Congrats sir, you understand statistics. +1 for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tipkaee Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Also 325 is a small sample size, while a large sample might be unreasonable i would not try to determine rates or anything without thousands of observations. If my guild and i opened 325 bags and noticed a drop rate much closer to 50% does that mean the droprate is clearly 50%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Synxos Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 "sample size of ~325 bags. The drop rate is approaching 1 in 7 and increasing. If it was just a statistical error or small sample size the ratio should be narrowing but its not." Why don't you do a proper statistical test on it? Instead you post that... What you posted is so unintelligent it deserves a... /facepalm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gios Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 I saw a nerf. 1 drop in 14 bags since Tuesday. I know its random but its frustrating as hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScumNVillawut Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 "Guys why didn't I win Mega Millions twice in a row? Does this blow? I think it blows." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keblitis Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Ok, so you got a 25% chance to get a BM comm each bag. I've been a BM for about 2.5 weeks now. Valor rank 68, grinded out 3 tokens, (that's about 150 WZs) opened about 35 bags, and received 2 BM comms. So, my personal drop rate is at around 5-6%. That's about what most others are reporting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aetou Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Still averaging 30%+ Random is random. Annoying but true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrip Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 I got a comm in something like my first 8 of 11 bags. I recently opened 4 in a row without a comm and was pissed! Clearly nerfed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crankyhobo Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 I opened 8 BM bags in a row, a month or so ago, and got none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vase Posted April 2, 2012 Author Share Posted April 2, 2012 I love trolls trying so hard to show how much smarter they are than the poster. Attacking the format or grammar then the debating the content. I am sorry I didn't make a spread sheet format for all you stat geeks. I know how RNG works hence the part about the ratio getting worse not better. Like this sentence it was more then 3 sentences in so it was probably not read by the trolls. With out the metrics from Bioware we will never know all I was trying to point out is that the drop rate has changed for the worse. I am sorry if that somehow offends some people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Majestic_Jazz Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Ok, so you got a 25% chance to get a BM comm each bag. I've been a BM for about 2.5 weeks now. Valor rank 68, grinded out 3 tokens, (that's about 150 WZs) opened about 35 bags, and received 2 BM comms. So, my personal drop rate is at around 5-6%. That's about what most others are reporting. Why not just buy BM Commendations [1000 WZ/1000 Mec comms] as well? You might open 35 bags and only get 2 comms, but during that same time span of playing 150WZs as you say, you could also have probably bought 4-5 comms, or even more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MashTactics Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 I got 6 in a row this week. I guess it's just sux for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Majestic_Jazz Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 I love trolls trying so hard to show how much smarter they are than the poster. Attacking the format or grammar then the debating the content. I am sorry I didn't make a spread sheet format for all you stat geeks. I know how RNG works hence the part about the ratio getting worse not better. Like this sentence it was more then 3 sentences in so it was probably not read by the trolls. With out the metrics from Bioware we will never know all I was trying to point out is that the drop rate has changed for the worse. I am sorry if that somehow offends some people. Don't let it get to you, this is the internet and in forums like this [MMO forums] people just want to be an internet intellect, always having to be smarter than the other. My suggestion is to also try to buy BM comms or if it is really getting to you, just wait for 1.2 when it will be so much easier to get BM gear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keblitis Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Why not just buy BM Commendations [1000 WZ/1000 Mec comms] as well? You might open 35 bags and only get 2 comms, but during that same time span of playing 150WZs as you say, you could also have probably bought 4-5 comms, or even more! That's what I meant by saying I grinded out 3. I've seen a grand total of 5. 3 from purchasing 1000/1000, and 2 from bags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eommer Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 (edited) In the last two weeks I have finished all my pvp quests every single day/week. I have founded 2 comm. The others 2 I bought with 1000 war and 1000 merc comm. My friend, its almost full BM now and he started 2 days before me, he is very very luck or Im very vey unluck. piss me off. I have champion tokens to equip all my companions. I dont like this reward "luck" system. Anyone know if something change about this on 1.2? I really would like to see a system that reward for hard work, not just luck. Edited April 2, 2012 by Eommer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twor Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 (edited) I love trolls trying so hard to show how much smarter they are than the poster. Attacking the format or grammar then the debating the content. I am sorry I didn't make a spread sheet format for all you stat geeks. I know how RNG works hence the part about the ratio getting worse not better. Like this sentence it was more then 3 sentences in so it was probably not read by the trolls. With out the metrics from Bioware we will never know all I was trying to point out is that the drop rate has changed for the worse. I am sorry if that somehow offends some people. BW hast stated awhile ago that the rate is 25%. They haven't stated that they have changed it. Calling people trolls because they say that your 300something bags is not a statistically relevant size is imature. If you knew that your example size is not big enough for a statistic why did you make this thread? Roll a D100 300 something times, count the numbers you get 1-25, than do it again again again again and again. Grats, you now know how BMs system works. Edited April 2, 2012 by Twor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Remulan Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 I'm only valor lvl 64 and I have my full battlemaster set. It seems like I get a comm every 2-3 bags, but I haven't been keeping track. I can confirm there has been no nerf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrakenZ Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 My first week of valor 60 i opened 5 bags ang 1 BM com. Last week i opened 4 and got 4. Random Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eommer Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 I'm only valor lvl 64 and I have my full battlemaster set. It seems like I get a comm every 2-3 bags, but I haven't been keeping track. I can confirm there has been no nerf. thats insane. Im valor lvl 68 and I only have my weapon because I bought with 1000war/1000merc comm. My friend is luck as you too. he is almost full BM in 2 weeks. i hate this luck system. serious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mishcleo Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 i have worse than 1-7 and it pisses me off too. once i hit battlemaster progression slowed down to an unacceptable level, and i would gather that if someone disagrees, they got their stuff when it was not so drawn out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twor Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 i have worse than 1-7 and it pisses me off too. once i hit battlemaster progression slowed down to an unacceptable level, and i would gather that if someone disagrees, they got their stuff when it was not so drawn out. I was R72 when I completed my BM set (till 69 before 1.1.5). It was always random and it is still random. Noone had it easier than you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eommer Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 (edited) I dont care if they change something and make even more harder to get BM gear. Like 2 weeks for 1 piece. I just dont like the "luck" factor you know? right now I have no idea if I'll have at least one comm in the coming weeks. hard work to finish my quests does not gives to me any guarantee that I'll be rewarded. i dont like this system. Edited April 2, 2012 by Eommer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lijahrobinson Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 (edited) I must be on the other end of the spectrum then. I have a full set of Eliminator and healing BM Gear and my Mercenary and my Aim companions are almost decked out as well. I also have about 8 tokens saved incase i have to repurchase some pieces for the mods when 1.2 comes out. Thats with a little over two months doing the daily and weekly roughly 90% of the time. Edited April 2, 2012 by lijahrobinson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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