New updated sub numbers (Official)

[Kthx]

And yet, so many threads created regarding dying servers...

 

100 people complaining about issue X constitute 0.005% of the subscription base. Plus, those who are disgruntled are more motivated to post, so you see a disproportionate amount of negative comments here.

Edited March 12, 2012 by Kthx

[Daluu]

100 people complaining about issue X constitute 0.005% of the subscription base. Plus, those who are disgruntled are more motivated to post, so you see a disproportionate amount of negative comments here.

 

Thats not necessarily true. I know for a fact that maybe 5 of my 50 person guild still play, and I am the only one who has ever posted on the forums. Disgruntled players who still want this game to improve are motivated to post. A lot of players just leave without a word. And the biggest reason the sub numbers are still at 1.7 is the 3/6 month sub option. I would like to see how many of those active subs have active players.

[Touchbass]

100 people complaining about issue X constitute 0.005% of the subscription base. Plus, those who are disgruntled are more motivated to post, so you see a disproportionate amount of negative comments here.

 

The majority of the complaints are legitimate issues that are affecting peoples gameplay, the few people who the issues don't affect shouldn't speak down to the people. They should be helping solve the issues through positive feedback and brain storming

[Goretzu]

100 people complaining about issue X constitute 0.005% of the subscription base. Plus, those who are disgruntled are more motivated to post, so you see a disproportionate amount of negative comments here.

 

That depends on how many are actually playing.

 

Unless you're using SoE's old trick.

[LucisAbyssus]

Yes this game doesn't go down because:

 

1) Casuals keep playing because they like the easy mode

2) People just want to play with glowsticks and that's all they care about in an MMO

 

The people who actually came to play a good MMO, have all left or are about to.

 

Right. The MMO doesn't have 1.7+ million subscribers because it's good/entertaining to their subscribers, it only has that many subscribers because the majority are casuals and everyone likes to play with glowsticks.

 

Your crowd are starting to sound like that group of haters that doomsay WoW.

 

"WoW isn't good, it just has a lot of subs because china and easy mode."

 

 

"SW:TOR isn't good, it just had a lot of subs because glowsticks and easy mode."

[Daluu]

And yet, so many threads created regarding dying servers...

 

Thats because many people trusted BW to make a great game and bought 3 month subs and have since quit.

 

Or there are people in my position, paying only to get on 2 hours a week to raid just to stay in touch with friends.

Edited March 12, 2012 by Daluu

[Tenceriker]

Thats because many people trusted BW to make a great game and bought 3 month subs and have since quit.

 

Or there are people in my position, paying only to get on 2 hours a week to raid just to stay in touch with friends.

 

Or they have over a years worth of time because they were so excited they were given too many 60 day cards.

[glemmstengal]

1.2 better be good!

[Dekkau]

In all the time I played STO, WoW and Rift I never got a mail from the game creators asking for feedback. And yet in this game I get the same mail request twice in one week.. Well here you go this is what I said..

 

I have already mailed you and told you I stopped playing cus the game is very boring. The combat is just the same all the time as are the quests. I HATE the companion and hate the travelling about all the time. The crafting is pointless and really dreary and uninteresting. The planets are not planets they are chessboard linear paths. The space travel is childish and stupidly moronic and I just cant abide the flirting crap with the companions. And there is nobody playing in game so it feels like its circling the drain. The game could play on a console like FFXIII-2, but even then I wouldn’t play it cus the combat structure is not challenging. Can’t believe so much money was wasted on this game. You would have been better trying to make a Tetris game and saved all the voice acting. Never mind. Better luck next time. I’ve gone back to Rift.

 

There is nothing that can be done to make me want to play the game... Its crap.

 

Sadly I'm one of those that sub'd for 3 months whatamistakatomake. ... specially as I'm used as a crappy statistic supposedly showing how wonderful the game is doing. NOT.

[Vaalix]

I think the 1.7 million users came from the recent Asian launch too.. If thats true this game suffered a huge loss of players. I bet there is only around 300k N.A players who still log in but 500k-900k who don't and are being counted as they are on 3 or 6 month subs. I don't know what the asian numbers are but star wars is not popular there and I can't see a game that is so casual and easy going over well there unless they made the game more grindy somehow. If you want true mmo numbers from any mmo, you have to wait till they launch an expansion then find out how many world wide copies they sold. Go check out how many wow sold... its not 11 million I can tell you that and they are simply lying about actual numbers and have been for years.. Why? To create positive spin around the game so people try it. But all this bs of companies trying to rip off wows piss poor casual game designs is just that, bs.. of epic proportions. That game is complete and utter garbage and so is any game the tries to copy it..

 

Either way, those numbers may in fact be real but come summer time this game will only have enough of a population to maybe support 10 or 15 N.A servers, and probably 5 EU servers.. I don't think its rocket science to realize they most likely could, right now, condense 5 light load servers into one while leaving the one or 2 heavy loaded servers alone and hit about 15 decently populated servers. But they won't do that till probably a month after Gw2 ***** them of half of whats left of their population by fall. You fanboys can defend this game till your blue in the face but the coming months will reveal another Vanguard type of population.

 

I would bet any amount of money if they launched pre cu swg servers it would have just as many people actually playing it as this game does.. probably more.. And if they ported it into some newer engine like gamebyro.. the skies the limit because that game had immense re-play value, and this game does not.

 

It doesn't matter what they do in the coming months as far as fixes, the majority of the ones who left aren't returning.. I'll venture and say maybe 10% will re sub in around summer time just to check it out but they will be so far behind they won't last, their friends will be gone and they will not stay. Absolutely nothing can save this game right now, you either grow your population in the first few months or it doesn't and only the blind fanboys can't see this game took a massive hit in loss of players. Thats people actually playing the game... Even if they are subbed they are not logging in, and when you see people saying they only log in 2 hrs a week to raid... that is absolutely pathetic where replay value and your game are concerned.

 

Bioware and Ea have to tread very lightly because the company is publicly traded and they will use terms in the vaguest sense of the word to retain share value. I think this game will end up just like Eq2 did.. A game with a very niche following of users, obviously for different reasons.. Then you will see cash shops for vanity items come fall sept/oct.. Then full blown free to play with cash shops in 2 years time.

 

Swg 2 with theme park content and the old swg class/bh/crafting/space/social/player run economy would have destroyed this games sub numbers and killed wow in the process. the gamble bioware took on story/cutscene/cgi work was an epic fail and you will not see another mmo use it. You may see more voice overs and class quests in new mmo's but not like the immense waste of time and resources bioware went through while the rest of your game is severely lacking.

[RogueCody]

 

 

You're not hardcore. Not even close. You may be a scrubbly that grinds through harder content with your friends, but I went down the hardcore road for several years and NOT ONE TRUE Hardcore player.... NOT ONE.... would be upset about "casuals" or ANYONE playing a game they do as well, because without them there is no competition, no way to gauge themselves, not enough customer base and no one to feed the epeen stroking egos.

 

Your post is just simply immature, condescending and insulting to a LARGE portion of EVERY MMOs player base, and let's be frank: People are sick and tired of your type playing their games, not the other way around. Go back to CoD, WoW Arena, Counter Strike, or whatever else you think is "difficult" and sets you apart from the rest of humanity. At the end of the day: your attitude is an example of why these games are dying, NOT because the developers cater to anyone, because the average person is sick of the 5-8% that constantly insist they are so much more "skilled" than everyone else..

 

in a video game.

 

 

And so we move on, looking for the better community and player base, who will respectfully challenge the developers to make better, more challenging content... in a mature manner.

 

 

 

Beautiful post. Lemme tell you guys a quick story about a friend of mine from WoW.

 

 

Me and my friend loved WoW, we looked forward to doing daily quests together after work and even running a few dungeons afterwards and we're perfectly content for many many years.

 

Then something changed, my friend lost his job.

 

Well because of this he was home a lot more playing WoW and started raiding and running heroics religiously because of all his spare time. Over time his attitude about the game started to slowly shift, he started to tease me about my lack of gear and lack of dps in dungeons.

It seemed whenever we played together he was always complaining about something in the game. The main ones he starting using most was that "casuals were ruining the game for him." That "casuals" kept trying to ask for everything on a silver platter.

 

And of course my favorite response: that "Casuals didn't DESERVE the things they were getting."

 

It blew my mind! How in just a couple short months my friend went from happy just doing quests together too the most Whiny, complaining, stuck up SOB I've ever seen.

 

He didn't agree with me though. He called himself a "Hardcore gamer". You know that ones that "deserve" more than the other stupid casual players because there sooo awesome.

 

 

Then by a stroke of luck my friend found another well playing job, he had to work long hours to start things off and didn't get all the massive play time he once had as a "Hardcore gamer".

 

A month later he got some free time too hop on and do dailies with me again. We had a great time and played for hours doing random things in the very content he found so horrible a month ago.

 

He stopped complaining, he stopped posting trash on the forums and he stopped being a douche. I asked him some time later why he was so much happier now then before even though nothing had changed.

 

His answer was simple and awesome.

He said: "I suppose I just stopped appreciating what I had."

 

 

So there's my story gents and lady gents, flame if you want but it's all true.

 

I'm logging back on play some huttball and have a great time.

[Fantastix]

wait a minute let me get this straight...

 

 

on release bw had roughly 2 million games sold, hence 2 mio player (with some multiple account players w/e)

 

NOW they just recently added australian server + hongkong and whatnot etc.... and are down to 1.7 mio?

 

 

i dont know about you but thats seems to me like a downfall rather then rising numbers....

[Invictos]

I think the 1.7 million users came from the recent Asian launch too.. If thats true this game suffered a huge loss of players.

 

Asia launch came in March. The 1.7 million number is from late February, too early to include the Asian numbers. That's a fairly small point, and it's understandable that you'd make that mistake -- but the reason-defying screed that follows your initial error is so hysterical it's hard not to mock you for it. Instead, I'll just leave your post as a monument to the desperation with which some people hate on MMOs.

 

A few choice quotes in case you choose to edit away the entertainment value:

• "I bet there is only around 300k N.A players who still log in ..."
  
• "Come summer time this game will only have enough of a population to maybe support 10 or 15 N.A servers."
  
• "I would bet any amount of money if they launched pre cu swg servers it would have just as many people actually playing it as this game does."
  
• "Absolutely nothing can save this game right now..."
  
• "Swg 2 with theme park content and the old swg class/bh/crafting/space/social/player run economy would have destroyed this games sub numbers and killed wow in the process."

1.7 million customers is an absolutely staggering number in the MMO market, and unfortunately for you, that number comprises the most credible bit of evidence we have about the game's well-being right now. The number does not guarantee the game's long-term success, but declaring the game dead at this stage is beyond silly. It's possible that some of your predictions will come true, eventually. It's also possible that I'll win the Powerball jackpot, but I ain't planning on it, and I'm sure as hell not going to proclaim in public that despite ~200-million-to-one-odds, I'm destined to win.

 

More to the point, I'm not going to proclaim that statisticians and lottery officials are heavily overstating the odds against my winning. To say that EA and Blizzard are lying so blatantly to their share holders is a serious accusation, not one to be made lightly unless you wish to be taken lightly. You appear to be conflating your personal and wholly subjective preference for sandbox MMOs with evidence that theme parks can't/don't/won't succeed. In fact, the available evidence suggests the opposite.

[Akirator]

wait a minute let me get this straight...

 

 

on release bw had roughly 2 million games sold, hence 2 mio player (with some multiple account players w/e)

 

NOW they just recently added australian server + hongkong and whatnot etc.... and are down to 1.7 mio?

 

 

i dont know about you but thats seems to me like a downfall rather then rising numbers....

 

Yes, after a month they sold 2M copies and only 1.7M had kept accounts....in the MMO world that's an initial base of 1.7M, 85% conversion rate, and a DAMN GOOD number for any MMO.

 

A month later they have over 1.7M, but they didn't say how much over that number they have. That IS an increase, and without the exact sales numbers we have no idea what retention percentage that is. But it's in no way a drop.

[Tservo]

They don't have 1.7 million playing - read the CEO's words in the transcript. It's not 1.7 million.

[RealAeiouy]

Congrats to bioware!

 

Most people play a lot more early on in a new game, twice as much or more often, so seeing server drops with the same player base is what happens.

 

Again it is very impressive what they have done. They also have perhaps the most aggressive and hardest working dev team of any mmog I have ever played so I think the future is very bright.

[RealAeiouy]

This predicting the future doesn't say anything. "At current rate we expect..."

 

My bro and I extended our playtime in januari with a GC, which ends 20 march.

 

He already quit, i'm quitting the 20th. And so are many more people on my server.

 

Also can anyone tell me how it's possible the servers were heavy/full all the time during 1st month now all are low/standard even though EA claims there was no drop?

 

Yeah... Most people play a lot more.

 

If server pops drop in half it could mean no loss of subscribers.

[AJediKnight]

And of course my favorite response: that "Casuals didn't DESERVE the things they were getting."

 

It blew my mind! How in just a couple short months my friend went from happy just doing quests together too the most Whiny, complaining, stuck up SOB I've ever seen.

 

Because he realized that handing bad players good gear diminished the overall impact of earning said gear when you actually worked for it?

 

Sounds like your hypothetical friend got a clue.

[RealAeiouy]

No other MMO spent $200MM and six years in development. That's the problem.

 

With that kind of red ink over their heads, I can't imagine anyone being "very, very happy" with flat growth just two months out from launch.

 

I'd feel better about it if the CEO had said how many boxes they sold in February, as that would give a picture of their retention rates.

 

So in their third month they have already recouped 50% of their development costs.

 

It does not seem like you have much business experience or knowledge but I can assure you any investor would be over the moon with having already recovered 50% of the development costs, above and beyond the cost of operations, in three months. It means that large investment is surely going to pay huge dividends.

 

A normal business investment might be happy with 10% return a year. 50% in 3-4 months is crazy good.

[RealAeiouy]

How much of the $200m do you think they recouped already?

 

One of their execs commented something like, we would be doing quite well at 1m subs.

 

So I have to think since they are 70% over that right now, they are happy.

 

As I noted above if you rough take their take on box sales and monthly net they have probably recouped around half of that 200 milion which is crazy.

[RealAeiouy]

You guys do realize that wow reports both their asian and western subscribers. First, their asian subscribers are pay to play and aren't realistically like their subscribers in the west. What I would be really interested in seeing wow's western subscriber numbers only and not combined their east with west subscribers since most of their profits come from their western subscribers.

 

I don't particuarly like the way Blizzard spins their subscribers numbers especially their eastern base since they pay to play. If said player only plays once a month they count them as a subscriber even if they only played for one hour. Thus, I'm very skeptical about true profits wow makes over their east base subscribers.

 

I'm really only interested in their western base subscribers and how much of a loss their western base has taken considering that is their most profitable client. I'm willing to bet, wow isn't doing too well considering most wow's western servers are ghost servers.

 

The recent announcement with SoR indicates to me that Blizzard is getting more desperate to generate more revenue by luring ex-players since they aren't getting enough new subscribers to replace the ones that left. It's also not a good sign that MoP won't be out for months, which means a stale endgame for months, plus dragon soul mediocre raid. I doubt it dragon soul will hold out like icecrwon citadel did in woltk. Blizzard can only expect heavy western subscription losses due to lack of content for the next couple months until MoP comes out.

 

Also like to point out wow's pvp is worst shape relative to pve. I expect losses when gw2 comes out.

Yeah blizzards reporting has always been sketchy. Comparing apples to apples wows numbers would be bigger than swtor but not by a huge amount. I suspect wow has 3-4 million comparable subs.

[RealAeiouy]

I dont want this game to fail or succeed as it served as a distraction and was fun but these numbers 1.7mil last time...1.7mil this time seem odd to me as thats 100%retention and 0 growth shown.

 

I know fanboys want to herald these as proof the games awesomsauce and the haters are going to wanna herald them as the doom of the galaxy but that nonsense aside and the numbers just seem made up....no movement at all up or down with asia launch and all the hate/love...still 1.7mil hmmmm.

 

As someone else noted ea is a public company. There are serious consequences for "making up " such numbers. They are almost without a doubt true.

[RealAeiouy]

My point is there was 1.7 mil then too. So all of them keep subs and not log in for 30+ days? I can see some of that being true but a game after 1 1/2 months is not suppose to drop off that fast. No mmo has that I have played...

 

If people play 20 hours a week in the first month then cut back to 10 hours a week it would look like half the players left.

 

A reduction this size is normal for new players to a game. Since all players are new in the first month it is common

[Samborino]

Congrats to bioware!

 

Most people play a lot more early on in a new game, twice as much or more often, so seeing server drops with the same player base is what happens.

 

Again it is very impressive what they have done. They also have perhaps the most aggressive and hardest working dev team of any mmog I have ever played so I think the future is very bright.

 

Its not even really server drops in terms of status as much as people think.

 

Just over a week after launch the doubled the max server populations, so a server that is standard now would have been a server that was full at launch.

 

That means that 80% of the servers during peak hours would be heavy / full if they didnt double the maximum server populations.

 

Here is the quote from their conference call transcript "I want to take a second to correct the reports which speculated that a lack of congestion was a sign of slow participation. Shortly after launch, we doubled the efficiency of each server, allowing us to handle twice as many players and remove the waiting lines. The lack of congestion is a function of great engineering."

 

 

So really more servers have filled up since launch if you consider that they doubled the max server pop

And the link to said transcript :http://www.darthhater.com/articles/swtor-news/19915-electronic-arts-q3-fy12-earnings-call

Edited March 13, 2012 by Samborino

[RealAeiouy]

An average of 4 hours a day play time, is not the same thing as an averaged play time across the day (which is what you are using).

 

No server is going to have a steady number of players throughout each 24 hour cycle. This makes what you've calculated completely meaningless in this context (it's like trying to calculate the needed capacity for public transport, but completely ignoring rush hour and the graveyard shift).

 

Using maths isn't the same thing as understanding it, it seems.

 

 

 

 

 

Peak time would be when most people put in those 4 hours a day, leading to much higher pops at that time than your numbers show.

 

As the pops just aren't that high then, it means a lot of people aren't playing much at all or..... something incredibly strange is happening.

 

 

Peak pops for mmogs have had a 4-1 and now closer to 5-1 multiplier forever.

 

That means 350k to 425k peak players which is close enough.

 

That being said 4 hours a day per player average sounds extremely high. Was that number reported? I would guess it is little more than half that, perhaps 15-17 hours a week.

 

Looking at the math though it is pretty easy to see the current levels we see in game in fact do support the reality of 1.7 million subscribers.