Dillingor Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 (edited) Actually going to save this quote, and we'll see if it's worth posting when the 4th quarter financials are released. It's not about "doom and gloom". It's about being accurate. If SWTOR could hit 5 million, 10 million, more more more, it wouldn't matter to me one iota. It's just that every other single bit of empirical data out there is showing SWTOR on a quick downward trend as far as subscriptions and play time. As well, everything Bioware is currently doing smacks of a company scrambling to save a ship that's really sitting low in the water, if you know what I mean. You seriously have no idea what you're talking about. To you, it is indeed Doom and Gloom. Please, display this empirical evidence about the downward trend with regards to subscriptions. I want to see even one shred of evidence to that effect, actually. Considering the first and only real evidence there is that exists with regards to subscriptions is this post, and it's showing a very healthy subscription base. You forget we're dealing with the MMORPG space here. It's not only EXPECTED that there is a dropoff of subs after the initial month, it's actually just factual. What this is showing is that the trend is following suit, and that the dropoff was not some quick drop, but actually a rather minuscule one. With 500,000 subs being profitable for the company, as stated by them earlier, and them having over 3x that many after more than a month of play, you'd expect any observable trend to actually be positive, and upward. You're trying to invent a trend that can't possibly exist yet, because it has only been a month. There is no "trend" in one set of data. This set is showing a positive number, higher than expectations given the genre, so to jump in here and say that all empirical evidence points to a quick downward trend is just completely nonsensical. " If SWTOR could hit 5 million, 10 million, more more more, it wouldn't matter to me one iota." This is probably the only true statement you made in your post, because you will hate this game and wish its demise regardless of how well it does. Yes, playtime is lower after the first month of release. It is for any game. Nobody plays a game for hundreds of hours for a month straight, and then continues to play it even MORE the next month. It doesn't happen. We are human. Edited February 2, 2012 by Meluna rude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fieryabyss Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I'm not hoping the game fails or anything, but 1.7 million subscriptions out of 2 million sales as pretty close to a 100% retention rate which I would find very hard to believe even for the most amazing of games. Whoever taught you math should be fired. 300,000 (or 15% loss) is 15% shy of being 100% retention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrelle Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 He's doing math while distracted and making estimates and/or rounding stuff. Calm down. So distracted math is actually a term. I'm just curious, because if it is I'll start using it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CadaKai Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The prioor number 1 million sold was official EA announced number ar 23.12. on this very page. "Yesterday was quite a day here in Austin. We likely had the largest one-day subscription account registration process in MMO history – over one million people are now registered players of the game, and the number is growing rapidly. As you might imagine, this presented a huge strain on our infrastructure and systems, but the good news is that we seem to be through the worst of it now thanks to folks working hard all day to serve our community. And as Greg mentioned in his earlier note, we've also been working hard on resolving queues – those being another side effect of the huge demand for Star Wars™: The Old Republic™ over the past week. We were definitely anticipating a very high load but if anything the demand for the game has only exceeded our expectations! We're very appreciative of your support and we look forward to surprising and delighting you throughout the journey ahead. To that end, we plan on letting you know soon about some cool upcoming content planned over the next few months. On behalf of the Star Wars: The Old Republic team, Greg and I want to thank you very much for your support, and also your patience yesterday as the team worked hard to process through the huge volume of players trying to register. Thank you, Ray Muzyka and Greg Zeschuk" That makes 1 million sold units after 23.12 which is 40 days. SO they had 1 million sales 3 days after launch. What is your argument again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knightblaster Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 They count people on free month to active subs like they say on the article. They sold close to 1 million copies in last 40 days. Im sure that most of those are on free month. On the earnings conference call they said most were currently paying. You can listen yourself at EA's investor website. It's available there. Sorry. Your movement has failed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrelle Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 no one believes you. Try all you want but no one will believe there are ever just 5 people in fleet except maybe when the servers first launch after a reboot. And yet, still no screenshot. 200+, No. I'm sorry, that's so blowing smoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoupyNuggs Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 What the hell is "distracted math" I'm at work and doing other things while coming up with this estimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aaluria Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 What the hell is "distracted math" lol! This is fantastic news! When will all the cry babies leave and get replaced with new people playing a like this game. Yes they will fix bugs, yess they will improve the game and yes I will be still subscribing and playing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrelle Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I'm at work and doing other things while coming up with this estimate. Thank you. That's the first straight answer all thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiskyJax Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 And yet, still no screenshot. 200+, No. I'm sorry, that's so blowing smoke. How many players have to be logged in to a server to make it full? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobTheTeepo Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Some fanboys are so dense on this forum.. They're not inflating the numbers, but the numbers are undeniably INACCURATE.. EXTREMELY INACCURATE. It's already been proven that that 1.7 million number (which is a bold-faced lie in the first place, come on.. jesus) includes the free month (lol).. and they also removed the unsubscribe button the day before and the day of the end of the free month, thus stranding dozens of thousands in this crap game for another month. Do you understand how this stuff works, man? Or.. are you really that naive? No, the number may be 1.7 million.. but it's WILDLY inaccurate. Wait until official numbers are released. It's not even slightly "inaccurate" to what it was talking about, it's inaccurate in regards to your point, but it's wholly accurate -- I suggest you learn the definition of the term. Now, that is not the exact amount of PAYING subscribers true, but he does state "most" of them are paying subscribers. Most means, "the majority of" this means that more people are subscribed and paying than are not. Not to mention, he says the amount of actual subscribers is growing -- not falling. While the number may be inaccurate to what you're talking about, it does stand true and undeniable, this game is BEATING expectations -- and expectations were REALLY high. We're gaining paying subscriptions, we're the 2nd most played MMO in the industry, SWTOR has OVER half as many hours played as ALL (excluding Aion, EVE, and Maplestory) MMOs combined. http://www.xfire.com/genre/mmo/massively_multiplayer_online/ Samples may not be definite, but they are an accurate indicator. People need to understand that indications say SW:TOR has a good future, the game is improving fast (new content, major bug fixes etc.), we're doing extremely well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AkemManah Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 You can call BS all you want. I saw at most 5 once, not counting companions, standing near the GTN stations. I'm sorry, but there's barely anybody around. Too bad perception is everything. Can you honestly say that on your server SWTOR feels like a living, breathing, thriving community? Yes, every day, even during down times I find much more than 20 ppl in fleet and no less than 75-100 on planets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uthic Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 On the earnings conference call they said most were currently paying. You can listen yourself at EA's investor website. It's available there. Sorry. Your movement has failed. How much is 'most' though ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobaFurz Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 (edited) What he is talking about sub wise is current. "-- Star Wars®: The Old Republic has generated 1.7 million active subscribers and sold through more than 2 million units in a little over one month." How would that be before January... They sold 2 mil. 1.7 mil kept the sub so far. Didnt people had to activate a sub before they could even download or play the game ? Edited February 2, 2012 by BobaFurz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forsbacka Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 SO they had 1 million sales 3 days after launch. What is your argument again? That they sold same amount in next 40 days and a lot of those are still on free month but they are counted in total of active subs on the post that was linked even that they paid only for the original game. The amount of subs that was or gonna be refreshed aint 85%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runeshard Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 One other thing... I love forum goons who believe everything they hear PR people say. It's their job to factually misrepresent numbers. They won't lie, but like what this topic is about... they'll use December Q4 totals to say they have 1.7 million subs currently all the way up until Q1 2012 where they're forced to eat crow and say they had a decline in retention rates. That's how business works in the real world. But we should listen to "Captain doomsayer", "Mr. hater" and "Dr. Conspiracy"? Seriously in terms of trustworthiness people like that are several steps below "I heard it from a man in a pub" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrelle Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 How many players have to be logged in to a server to make it full? I don't care about full, I just want to see someone around besides me and my companion, and 2 or 3 of my doppleganger running around. I will say I see a lot more people when I'm in huttball. For about 10 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoupyNuggs Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 A disclaimer first: Burden of proof is on you, the naysayer, to come up with facts more credible than EA's own IR report, so don't "riddle me" anything. But I'll humor you anyways because I think your ignorance is amusing. 8k players avg across 215 servers, I'll grant. 2k players on at "all times"? Are you kidding me? Since when has any MMO been able to claim 25% sub activity at any time except peak hours? I'll do BETTER math for you. Let's assume out of those 8k subscribed on server x, 10% play over 10 hours a day, 80% (the vast majority of working/in-school player population) play 4 hours a day (i.e. that 7 to 11PM block), and 10% play 1 hour a day or less. Still with me? Good, gold star for you. Now let's factor in any given hour over a 24 hour day. So if 800 people play 10 hours a day, that's 800*(10/24), in other words, that 10% of the server pop will show 8000/24 or 333 players online at any random hour in a 24-hour playing period, assuming no outside variables. Keep adding it up like this and we get: 333 + 6400*(4/24) + 800*(1/24) = about 1,500 players online at any given hour. You've overestimated by at least 25%. HOWEVER Keep in mind that the 80% (people like me. I am still at work after all) will have a near 0 probability of being online at any time except for peak hours (that 7PM to 11PM block). Which means then we are calculating for what servers look like during the rest of those 20 hours. 800*(10/20) + 800*(1/20) = 440 players online at any given time other than peak hours. TL;DR Quick, distracted math shows that at peak hours, assuming EA's figure of 1.7 million is semi-accurate and not an overexaggeration, assumes that about 1,500 players will be online for BOTH factions during PEAK hours. At any other given hour besides peak hours, we can assume that about 400-500 players will be online for BOTH factions. I for one, don't find that so hard to believe. NEXT HATER PLEASE. Just quoting myself again. I had no idea what my estimates would've shown while I was haphazardly making them, but it seems that based off of these simple assumptions, and based off of what I see on my server during peak/off-peak hours, there's nothing inaccurate about EA's 1.7 million #. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forsbacka Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 On the earnings conference call they said most were currently paying. You can listen yourself at EA's investor website. It's available there. Sorry. Your movement has failed. Yes, they paid when they bought the game, will they continue to do so after 1st month is different thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knightblaster Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 How much is 'most' though ? We don't know. But "most" is certainly a significant amount more than 51%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraith Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 (edited) NOOOOOO!!!! LIES!!!!!!!!!!!!! No, your estimates are wrongs because 10 people who joined this site back in Dec 2011 stated people were leaving in masses...... So, because I know for a fact that people who joined this site back in Dec 2011 only speak the truth and would never fabricate statistics, this game will not last 6 months. SWTOR is a failure because those Dec 2011 joiners said so.... Edited February 2, 2012 by Kraith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runeshard Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I guess everyone boguht their boxes at launch then and no one is buying the game anymore? The vast majority of the 2 million sales announced were made before 31st Dec. There are people in their free month now, they don't represent a sizeable portion of the 1.7 million active subs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lundli Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 But we should listen to "Captain doomsayer", "Mr. hater" and "Dr. Conspiracy"? Seriously in terms of trustworthiness people like that are several steps below "the easter bunny" Corrected that for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runeshard Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I call BS on this. never more than 20 people in fleet? Lowest I've ever seen was 40ish, and that was at 4:30 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forsbacka Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The vast majority of the 2 million sales announced were made before 31st Dec. There are people in their free month now, they don't represent a sizeable portion of the 1.7 million active subs. Dunno about vast majority but officially half of that was at 23.12. but if you are true, looks like this game aint selling much these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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