[Official: Over 1.7 million active subs, 2 + mil sold]

If you're right do you think this game will survive?

 

It will absloutely survive. and be profitable if they can maintain 700k subs for 6 months they will be very profitable.

[Official: Over 1.7 million active subs, 2 + mil sold]

So they are lying because you want them to be lying.

 

Got it.

 

i dont know how to respond to you. you have no concept of financial Qrtr's. 11 days after offical launch they had 1.7 million people playing. Id like to see the bill paying subs . we wont know that until the end of this Qrtr.

[Official: Over 1.7 million active subs, 2 + mil sold]

You have been consistently wrong as well. Hell, you said 30% drop first month, 40-45% more likely.

 

Move those goal posts!

 

I Currently believe this to be true i beleive that as of this date we have 30% burn off . there is no were near 1.7 million paying subs right now. no where near that. im not moving any goal posts ive always said 30 % by the first month easily 90 days will see antoher 10 to 15%

[Official: Over 1.7 million active subs, 2 + mil sold]

85% retention after month 1 is roughly in-line with typical churn, it is a figure which cannot be celebrated or vilified.

 

They hit the 2-million mark sometime in mid-January if I recall, so keep in mind that a lot of the folks they are calling "active subscribers" are actually still in their first free month.

 

The real story will unfold at the 3-month and 6-month milestones.

 

There's really no way to make an informed call without seeing a plethora of figures in context. This would include: Total sales, total subscriptions (payed, not free month), daily-weekly-monthly uniques, average concurrency and peak concurrency.

 

In other words: it's still too soon to tell (and that goes to both camps, the doomsday folks and the fanbois alike).

 

I completely agree with you ive been under attack for Arm chairing the future game based on a ton of release game expierences. I stick too a 30% burn off by 90 days and 45% by 6 months. I am a vocal critique of some of the features of this game, not because i hate it . i really like TOR and want it to be great. I was in beta since the first phase and was vocal there too. there is no place for boot licking TOR needs to devolp fast in this market and give its player base options and challenge .

[Official: Over 1.7 million active subs, 2 + mil sold]

What?

 

Not peak times on the west coast. Holy misinformation batman.

 

LOL i play on space slug one of the most populated NA servers.

[Official: Over 1.7 million active subs, 2 + mil sold]

You were wrong before .... and you will be wrong again.

 

Now you are making up server populations to try and prove a feeble point.

 

Not making anything up i just follow alot of MMO's. you sound angry? too much SWTOR coolaid?

[Official: Over 1.7 million active subs, 2 + mil sold]

You said a few days ago that TOR would lose 40%-45% in its first 30 days.

 

here is your quote

 

"Every single MMO released expierences a 30 % burn off in 30 Days . Every single one. SWTOR may have a bit higher maybe 40% maybe 45%."

 

And i still think that . the numbers are not in. Dont get me wrong i like tor and will still play the last 2 weeks of the first month i paid for but i already unsubbed. They will not hold more then 60% retention after 90 days not with the end game they currently have .

Every forum community after launch has this same discussion . and 6 months later hard numbers are reported to investors we get a clear picture of subs. Every MMO has expierenced that 30 % burn off even WOW lol they grea after their first year.

[Official: Over 1.7 million active subs, 2 + mil sold]

There has never been a single "western" MMO that would have hold over 500 000 subscribing players over half a year except WoW. (Turbine hides it's figures, so I give some doubt over LotRO, but...)

 

500 000 subscribers is massive to a "western" MMO. If you would promise to the "western" publishers of TERA (Frogster and Atari) and The Secret World (EA and Funcom) 500 000 subscribers half a year after launch, they would probably be giddy with joy.

 

Everquests never had more than about 750 000 subscribers COMBINED at their height.

 

SWTOR now probably has more subscribers than all other "western" subscriber MMOs except it and WoW have together.

 

EQ 2 peaked at 700 k subs Eq 1 peaked at 400k the difference is EQ1 was launched and expected 40k subs at its peak life. they anhilated the projections. they released Galaxies and anticipated 1 million subs and never got more then 400k. EQ 2 released with a projection of 500k and hit 700 at its prime. WOW projected 250 k and ended up with millions lol. TOR will not hold high numbers for a long haul , I do not believe a word of EA reports until they are legit shareholder reports. 1.7 Active subs Does not equate 1.7 paying subs. just look at the server populations they were full to heavy 3 weeks agao now they all say standard and light at peak times.

[Official: Over 1.7 million active subs, 2 + mil sold]

Is that true? Last I heard Rift was very profitable and growing.

 

Dont listen to that internet blabber go look at the reuters report and WSJ. both have just recently covered Trion and they are making money hand over fist. rift cost them 58 million to make with their own engine . Investors are throwing their panties at them right now. 500 k subs with no resids to any I.P. . A indy game company with this being their very first title they are doing just fine .

[Official: Over 1.7 million active subs, 2 + mil sold]

If rift is so great why is it lying dead in a gutter while wow and swtor spit on its corpse. The game even started with over 60 servers at launch, and now its down to 17....

 

So obviously it must not have been that great?

 

LOL its the same here you watch after a year TOR wil have roughly 30 to 40 server. went through exactly what TOR is going through . restrict its population because you cant have 10000 people in the starting area. All mmo os consolidate its the way server technology operates. dont fool yourself 500k active subs over 17 servers is a tremedous amount. TOr is going to have to cut these servers in half by may and again by next december the forums are flooded with Whine threads about being on adead server. WOW is spittin on its own corpse its bleeding more Bill paying subs every month then any other MMO. blizzard can make all the claims they want but NA and EU subs combined are down 40%. those are the ones that pay the bills not china free play servers.

As for TOr hell the veridct wont be in until 6 months from now then we will see where the numbers are at. im pretty sure TOR and rift will be neck and neck.

[Official: Over 1.7 million active subs, 2 + mil sold]

Here's why I laugh.

 

A timeline with Glooms and doomers and negative Nancies : we'll call them Nancy.

 

And everyone else.

 

 

Pre-launch:

 

Nancy, "This game sucks I beta tested. I'm not buying it."

 

Everyone else "That's okay if you don't like it you don't have to buy it."

 

Nancy, "This game will be lucky to sell 1 million copies"

 

Everyone else "Actually it's already got 900k box pre-orders in NA alone not accounting for digital and "Europe.

 

Nancy "Yeah I can just make up numbers too."

 

 

Post Launch:

 

Nancy "This game sucks I'll bet not even 500,000 people are playing this game right now"

 

Everyone else "Actually it's sold over 2 million copies and it has a peak concurrent userbase of 350,000"

 

Nancy "only 300k? lol that's so low. this game is pathetic I'm going to cancel my account right now come watch me."

 

Everyone else "Actually thats a pretty high number for a PCU, but cancel your account if you want ya know."

 

Nancy "Well look at all of the other posts like mine, no body like this game it'll lose most of it's players when the first 30 days runs out. Everyone knows that's when most games fail. Stupid fanboy."

 

 

 

Post first billing cycle:

 

Everyone else "Hey got this information here. Says SWTOR has sold over 2 million copies it has 1.7 million active subscribers."

 

Nancy "Yeah riiiight! Maybe when it launched, those numbers aren't current."

 

Everyone else "Nancy? You're still here? I thought you canceled your account. Anyway it says right here over half of the people are through with their first free month."

 

Nancy "Oh well that's probably 49% of 1.7million and they'll be gone next month."

 

Everyone else "Okay maybe, I doubt that's the case but it's possible."

 

Nancy "It doesn't matter anyway it's at the 3 month mark where most games fail. Everyone knows that fanboy."

 

 

 

 

 

 

Which that last bit is possible and most games that are going to fail do so by that third month. However, negative Nancy and her bros and sisters have been proven wrong time and time again. Let's hope the trend keeps up.

 

Actually with 2 million units (highest I've seen is 2.5m) sold, and to still have 1.7m of them around (even if only 51% are actually subbing) is pretty impressive.

 

Nancy is correct that the 90 day mark is the secondary burn off point after that the user base stabilises and will churn those form the 30 day and 90 day mark as subscribers. My guess is nacy is still subbed though she has nothing better to do.

[For those bored at 50...]

For those bored at 50, Name one content feature you would have in End-Game. I don't mean LFG or any of that. True content...ya'll are quick to point out that this is same old same old....Step-up. If you feel prod-dev's are lazy, this is your chance. Real Simple a CONTENT FEATURE you would like see in game. There are a few catch's...

 

1) It has to have broad appeal....Raids, Hardmode's and Pvp have broad appeal.

 

2) If you response is I don't work for (insert random company name here) this thread isn't for you.

 

1). guild features. Guild ship, bank,quests and guild story.

 

2). long quest lines that span from lvl 1 to 50 other then class story, like a class weapon.Think epics or SOD form EQ 2 some thing other then dailies to work on and FP's.

 

3). Fluff content customising ship interior, chr features.

 

4). Unlock the other FP's for hardmode and give us some rare unique items that are equal to or better then set gear.

 

5). In crease the diffculty of game its a single player game all the way to 50 then has multi player options. Making the diffculty harder would encourage more to group for the lvling process.

[Official: Over 1.7 million active subs, 2 + mil sold]

First of all WoW is a different situation because Blizzard has become a lazy developer. There's no excuse for the insane amount of money that game has been making them that they couldn't get larger content out faster. During peak subs, they also got into the habit of recycling old content and assets (gear, weapons, models, etc). This is terrible practice, and only blizzard can get away with it, though apparently people are getting fed up with it. Not to mention that blizzard is the slowest developer out there. And they sling that "quality, when it's done" stuff around, but anyone who played their games know they suffer from numerous bugs, and have sub-par quality assets to them (visuals for example). There's a reason that Kotick had to step in there and clean house to get them on a some what more respectable development cycle. Fans are finally turning against them, and that's why they're in panic mode, cutting off dead wood, like they have with the Diablo, SC2, and Titan teams. I hate to throw the term around, but "lazy developer" should be blizzard's trademark, not "soon". They've exploited their fans long enough.

 

As Trion showed how successful they were getting over 3.5 million subs at a time, it's because they cared. They put in larger than usual content patches, and in much much faster fashion. They also actually cared about their userbase. This is what helped them get established so fast which is out of the norm for a "new" developer.

 

BW needs to do what Trion did. If they can pull that off, not only would I be happier, but I'd be impressed, considering how SWTOR ended up being a bit of a let down considering the state it launched in for a high-budget MMO from a big name dev like BioWare and publisher, EA. They know they need to rapidly fix these issues, and come out smelling like a rose, because we all know the real threat to WoW, and of course SWTOR, is not much further down the road. And the amount of hype for it in the media and the communities is staggering.

 

The media and fans know the issues with this game, and we're giving BW the benefit of the doubt, for now. But the levels of mockery has been rising and fast in communities, and in the media (lack of content, too much downtime, bugs/glitches, etc).

 

Hopefully this gets BW moving, and if not, maybe EA will step in and crack the whip if need be like daddy Kotick did on blizzard.

 

Many people underestimate trion. There is a reason why that studio has some of the most talented and creative people in the industry. It's because they dont answer to anyone but the player's. rift is hands down the best MMO released in the last 7 years. Wallstreet is crazy for these guys to go public. they just got shot in the rear wwith a huge lump of money to produce new content for rift and Devolp a new engine for liscensing.

 

My guess 2012 and 2013 will be a battle between Trion and BW for the top tier Sub based MMO. and as i see it Trion has far less restrictions . People calll rift a fail MMO yet its growing and has less churn then WOW does currently. people fail to relalize that Trion gets 100% of the subscriptions .they have no liscense and everything they do is in house.The publisher got the Box sales and thats it.

[Official: Over 1.7 million active subs, 2 + mil sold]

New Math? Old Math says that's 85%

 

That is 15% more retention then i would have speculated

[So Why is Threat Invisible?]

Bad players will always be bad as well.

 

Terrible players will keyboard turn and mouse click your abilities all day long until something goes wrong and then fight to try and get the mob back.

 

A good tank will monitor threat levels on all targets and learn to adapt to situations before they become a problem. Good tanks watch those values and notice a particular mob slowly losing interest and realize they need to put more pressure on that particular one BEFORE it goes to someone else.

 

This hardly the case with this game. Ive MT'd everything its yawn mode.

[So Why is Threat Invisible?]

Before I quit EQ2, they implimented a Threat meter as well. They're probably had theirs for a couple of years by this point.

 

Back in EQ2, I had x3 abilities which wiped my combat threat on the target mob and reset my Threat score to 1 pt below the person with the next highest threat. Thus if I had 90% Threat (with 100%+ meaning that I had pulled threat) and hit my threat wipe, the end results were very variable. If I was the only strong dps player present, then my 90% could easily be reset to 40% Threat. Yet if there were a bunch of strong dps players present, then the 1st wipe would only reset me to 85% Threat. This would force me to hit my other x2 Threat Wipes in a row. In the end, my Threat would start at 90% and would skip down to something like 90% > 85% > 75% > 30%. For this kind of situation, having the Threat meter available was invaluable since it give me proactive control which a Threat Loss mechanic that was completely subjective since it depended on the Threat levels of everyone present.

 

I'm not claiming that EQ2 is the most cutting edge MMO for setting a standard, but the concept of having a Threat Meter (which became part of EQ2's core UI choices) has become increasingly more common.

 

Threat management in EQ 2 was actually a major game mechanic. EQ2 had a much much more indepth combat mechaincs . It was a much more chalenging game, pulling and threat mechanics were actually an art form and was required knowledge for a groups success. SWTOR is a stripped down version of WOW. Taunt every six seconds and tab around and AOE. this game is marketed at new MMO players and younger gamers i would not even call it casual as casual veterans are fastly disenchanted as well unless they reroll or focus on the fluff game which is thin as well.

[So Why is Threat Invisible?]

Why do we have an invisible game mechanic? It's like not being able to see health or resource bars. What possible reason could there be for this?

 

Some bad answers I want to head off at the pass: "I can kinda sense where my threat is based on how hard I'm hitting things." Unless you're an robot, no you can't. You just can't. And even the robot would need to know all the threat values anyway, and we just don't have this information. You might have a vague notion of your threat, but this is the whole problem I'm on about. Why not just show us like heath or resources?

 

"See?! This is why they need to give us mods!" No, they just need to show us the values in game like every other value; health, resources, resolve, cooldowns... again, why is this one value singled out for invisibility?

 

Everything is invisible in this game. there are no combat logs the mechanics are very very stripped down. if we had visibility it would be way more easier then it is , its horribly easy already.

[HM Flashpoints are Easy, give us NM]

HM Flashpoints are easy mode still. I've never run the level 50 instances on normal mode, and HM has only given us minimal difficulty, with the only times we fail to complete instance being due to bugs.

 

Give us Nightmare mode Flashpoints please! I would love a way to still progress without needing 8 people and something that I can do more often than once a week. Even if we were able to get Rakata gear, if the difficulty was high enough and the drops were contained (like still only drops one piece per run) then I don't feel like this would be a huge upset to the game.

 

Anyone else bored of HM Flashpoints? I honestly like them a lot more than Ops but the difficulty isn't there.

 

Edit: Actually a one week lockout wouldn't be bad, but we would still have many (7 at the moment) different flashpoints to clear each week. Thoughts?

 

The game is shallow in its current state. just like the water in game. the longevity is in rerolling and i am not willing to do that at this point gonna take a break

[What am i supposed to do till march?]

i already have two 50's i raid on weekly, and ilum pvp takes allot of time. also becoming hutt rich takes some time, currently on 6million credits. there is allot to do in this game. get together with friends level a group of 4 alts together and harrass low level reps(or emps). Raiding in this game is a tad easy but with bugs like nightmare ev puzzle boss bug it can be uber frustrating. when stupid bugs wipe your raid it adds to the difficulty i think, maybe thats why they havent fixed them:)))). in other words alts r cool raiding is fun for two days. hell i even go clear normal mode content just to have a raid to do^^. but all i all new game new stuff to do from many different angles. so dont hate so much k?

 

 

 

ps. blizzard puts out raids that get cleared on heroic in the first day also. if it takes you a year to beat deathwing heroic u r doing it wrong.

 

The game is very Basic even to a casual like myself. Persoanly i feel i should not be grinding the limited fluff content or rerolling 6 weeks out from a release. Granted ive had more free time then i do normally. have maxed faster in this game and tiered through gear progressions that are not even really worht the time spent. faster then any game ive ever played. I find the group mechanics very very easy all but a few fights in FP's . And the normal mode raids are one trick ponies. Not hating on the game but we do need to feedback why we are not liking the endgame.

[Discouraged to raid due to the ease of it all.]

So, by the time I got to 50 (I took my time) my guild had already zerged through all the 16 man ops including most hardmodes. When I got to 50 I posted on our forums that I was avail to fill a raid spot and I got into a weekly raid group no problem. When it came time to raid I was to be invited into a hardmode 16 man EV. After thinking about this for a while I just didn't show up on the scheduled raid day.

Why?

Because I shouldn't be able to turn 50 and enter hardmode raiding content the next day. There's little to no prep needed, no epic key quests to complete, no gear requirements and because my guild has been doing this for weeks, they'll want to zerg through it as fast as possible which will prob leave me with little time to look around and enjoy the instance.

Honeslty, this makes me not want to raid. I'm starting to hate this part of the game. The way they've made everything so easy. I don't want to turn 50 and get carried through raid content. I want to work for it and when I finally zone in for the first time experience that sense of wonder and accomplishment.

Anyone else feel this way?

 

They confused Casual as wanting stuff handed to them. keying up for zones having long questlines and gear req's are not hard core mechanics. they are mechanics that make people feel achievement and accomplished when they achive said goal. In the end Bioware has created a game that only apeals to rerollers in the hardcore community and hand outs to the Casuals. I am a casual player and a guild leader. we did our first normal mode EV run and it was an absoloute joke. we one shotted the whole place with no deaths and lvl 50's that had some green and blue gear. The tiering system is borked, the gear aquisition is a incredibly grindy and makes zero difference to the casual as they can raid in greens and blues and oranges. I just dont see the long term appeal of SWTOR though im having fun i do not feel any attachement to my main , the only reason im not back playing Rift right now is my guildmates.

[Official: Over 1.7 million active subs, 2 + mil sold]

Electronic Arts Inc. EA -2.39% today announced preliminary financial results for its third fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2011.

 

Hey, hope it's true. If they are making that kind of money, they should have plenty of capital to improve it.

 

I'm not hoping the game fails or anything, but 1.7 million subscriptions out of 2 million sales as pretty close to a 100% retention rate which I would find very hard to believe even for the most amazing of games.

 

Im not buying it either. they will need a fuls scale expansion by august to hold any serious numbers for a year.The end game is as shallow as the water in game.

[I love the game, but seriously, $300,000,000?]

I mean I love this game and all, but it took them that much to make? I mean, you would've made so much more money from making another Star Wars movie like the cinematics based on the old republic era, or making KOTOR 3 and 4. I'm in love with this game but if it took them this much im sorry, this game doesn't look 300million dollars!

 

It took 80 million. the problem is they spent 20 million on voice acting instead of game mechanics content and Devolpment , world design. There will be a massive burn off next sub cycle if the game is not enriched and devolped.

[Do You Like SWTOR In It's Current State? YES/NO]

Anyone that was around for WoWs launch knows how horrible that was. As for Rift, yeah the 12hr queue times and massive account security holes were amazing. Not to mention the massive class imbalances and horrible pvp. Yep greeeeat launch.

 

I like this game, it needs a lot of work but they all do at this stage.

 

Rift did have long Que times . they had planned for 700k players at launch and got over a million, poor planning. The Patcher had a security issue allowing for a massive amount of account hacks and platinum thieving ( i was a victim of it). Hands down Rift bloew this games launch out of the water . Ive had purple gear that lost its mods and waited three weeks for a customer rep with over 12 petitions. Rift gave me my platinum back in 48 hours. The class imbalances were absloutely horrible you are correct there some classes where useless in raids and endgame due to bad mechanics and DPS imbalances. PVP ? well it had issues but the PVP here sucks Bro its absloutely horrid. 3 WZ that you cant Q for . no tiering in pvp except lvl 50's the world PVP is a joke. SWTOR had a great launch but the only place they Beat Rift in is the q times and gold farming. The rest of the game is unfinshed and poorly planned. BW needs to act fast, they need to squash these bugs and pump more content out at the same time, i just dont see them being able to hold Rifts vigours cycle. ill give it another 30 days then our guild is packing up and heading back to Rift , Trion just recieved a huge lump of cash to expand rift smart money is on them for the win in 2012.

[Do You Like SWTOR In It's Current State? YES/NO]

I am between a Yes and No. The game is desperately thin in some area's. Rerolling seems to be actually the major bulk of the end game. Right now the game needs acontent and it desperately needs to fix the single player feel the game has.

 

I have a new appreciation for games like Rift. That game felt like an MMO right out of the box. though it had horibly bad flat spots in its leveling process the end game was extremely fun and much more thought out then TOR, PVP is light years ahead of TOR's.

 

Thoug i think TOR had a great launch but It feels like a half finished game . they polished up bolted together and put it out the door. It needs much more content and if they are gonna market Rerolling as their endgame they should have put the legacy system in at launch. right now it has potential but zero longevity in its current state.

[Why was the combat log left out? A serious question...]

The real reason is they dont want anyone min maxing yet and number crunching. The truth is the mechanics are so simplistic there are no real hard DPS checks or spike damage to heal through. the hard modes have 2 tough fights out of the 30 bosses. Its alos probably why gear and comedations are so ridiculously slow in the teirs of progression, BH and operatives drop 90 % of the time from final bosses forcing force users to grind for commendations. All of it points to a very rough and thrown together endgame.

 

I can handle bugged bosses broken mechanics and imbalance. i expect them and am willling to wait for it to be fixed, but bad planning and restricting the flow and ignoring some glaring fundemental flaws of the end game? i dont see much longevity. Kaon gave me some hope though that FP is well done the trash is fun and challenging even though all but 1 boss has any diffculty to it, i saw potential with what they did there. Crossing my fingers and preparing for a life boat.