Yeah, this game sure is losing people...

[asbalana]

Well, rest of the speculation aside (why people left, f2p option failing, maintenance mode etc.), does your trend analysis take into account that the population has remained stable for quite some time now?

 

I think that I have seen that the pop has been somewhat stable for the last month or so and only had a 3% to 5% net (unsub / not playing over new subs) drop over that time. But as I noted above, the numbers playing seem to have taken a nose dive over the last few days. Last night when I checked the pop on the remaining servers during prime time there were two heavy (went to one as time moved on) and the rest were light. My wife usually logs on to Harbinger in the morning to do a small amount of crafting before starting the day. She has always seen 150+ people while doing that. The last two mornings (including today) there were 45 people on fleet (each faction). I know that my observations are subjective and just span a few days which does not mean much, but I am definitely getting the sinking ship feeling.

 

BTW, we have come to the point where we did something that we thought (at swtor launch) we never would. We bought that other game and gave it a try. We found it to not be perfect and not everything that we wanted, no game is or can be, but I will tell you that it is open, responsive, and just great fun. It will pull people from swtor. MOP launces next month and that wil have an inpact on the swtor sub numbers. Perhaps the last month or so of somewhat stability was the anomoly and just a pause. Time will tell. We still played swtor a little over the last few days, but are finding it harder and harder to pass over the other games button to click swtor's.

[Trenter]

I wouldn't call that exactly "stable": http://imgur.com/mFJir

 

Alright, I'll retract that term then: It's rather stable and far from the "bleeding at an alarming rate" we hear about daily.

[cujojax]

Alright, I'll retract that term then: It's rather stable and far from the "bleeding at an alarming rate" we hear about daily.

 

It appeared stable because there was a month lull there with no new games, now that Guild Wars is officially out and MoP next month you can be sure it will only trend further downhill and continue until F2P especially if theres no new content. They have known for months in regards to the release dates of those other games, they had plenty of time to drop meaningful content to counteract those launches and all we got was a subpar world event so far. Youd think Makeb would likely drop around the 25th of Sept if they were smart.

Edited August 30, 2012 by cujojax

[Divona]

Alright, I'll retract that term then: It's rather stable and far from the "bleeding at an alarming rate" we hear about daily.

 

I wouldnt be that sure. Last time i saw similar trend when community started asking merges. Trend looks really bad again around 2 weeks ago. EU servers bleeding really badly.

 

I highlighted area after server merges.

EU http://s17.postimage.org/wapdrprp9/image.jpg

US http://s17.postimage.org/tunkdv9ml/image.jpg

Edited August 30, 2012 by Divona

[PanzerJagdhund]

People need to realize that this thing called school has started in many states.

[Wayshuba]

I wouldnt be that sure. Last time i saw similar trend when community started asking merges. Trend looks really bad again around 2 weeks ago. EU servers bleeding really badly.

 

I highlighted area after server merges.

EU http://s17.postimage.org/wapdrprp9/image.jpg

US http://s17.postimage.org/tunkdv9ml/image.jpg

 

Here's another simple trend. When server merges happened, queues were a frequent occurrence again. When was the last time anyone had a queue since about two to three weeks after the merges?

[Wayshuba]

People need to realize that this thing called school has started in many states.

 

That didn't seem to have an effect on GW2. Their claims are 400k concurrent users on "pre-launch" weekend. 1.5M units sold as pre-purchase and another 1M sold on pre-order. No report yet on what sales of units that were not "pre-launch" or "pre-order" but some estimates have surfaced it is about 600k. If estimates are true, that puts launch week copies sold at 3.1 million.

[Andryah]

That didn't seem to have an effect on GW2. Their claims are 400k concurrent users on "pre-launch" weekend.

 

There is no school on weekends.

 

Most kids actually started school in the US this last Monday.

[Dokar]

People need to realize that this thing called school has started in many states.

 

But how much of that is offset from the end of people taking summer holidays and the ending of summer jobs for school? No one knows.

[Kophar]

That didn't seem to have an effect on GW2. Their claims are 400k concurrent users on "pre-launch" weekend. 1.5M units sold as pre-purchase and another 1M sold on pre-order. No report yet on what sales of units that were not "pre-launch" or "pre-order" but some estimates have surfaced it is about 600k. If estimates are true, that puts launch week copies sold at 3.1 million.

 

 

SWTOR had more than 3mil copies sold on launch with preorders included and it did beat the 400k on early acess so badly that BW had to shutdown early acess due to abusive numbers of pre-orders.

Your point is?? Are you trying to say that GW2 is the game now? Cause thats simply not true, well talk again when all the hyping from the new and fresh MMO is around the 1st 30-60 days.

The game is out for 2-3 days and there are allready peeps QQing everywhere. At least SWTOR took a bit longer.

GW2 will be again as it was GW1, it will subsist with its own small community, so, stop trying to sell your fish here and go advertise it somewhere else, cause plain and simple a person that is enjoying SWTOR atm and if hes still playing it for this long, HE IS ENJOYING PLAYING IT and he will never go to this charade called GW2 unless he falls from all this hypings of new MMO's.

In 6 months from now GW2 will have their base of 500k-1m active players as it was with GW1 IF it even reaches that.

Edited August 30, 2012 by Kophar

[DarthTHC]

In 6 months from now GW2 will have their base of 500k-1m active players as it was with GW1 IF it even reaches that.

 

So you're saying it will be... more popular than SWTOR?

[cujojax]

SWTOR had more than 3mil copies sold on launch with preorders included and it did beat the 400k on early acess so badly that BW had to shutdown early acess due to abusive numbers of pre-orders.

Your point is?? Are you trying to say that GW2 is the game now? Cause thats simply not true, well talk again when all the hyping from the new and fresh MMO is around the 1st 30-60 days.

The game is out for 2-3 days and there are allready peeps QQing everywhere. At least SWTOR took a bit longer.

GW2 will be again as it was GW1, it will subsist with its own small community, so, stop trying to sell your fish here and go advertise it somewhere else, cause plain and simple a person that is enjoying SWTOR atm and if hes still playing it for this long, HE IS ENJOYING PLAYING IT and he will never go to this charade called GW2 unless he falls from all this hypings of new MMO's.

In 6 months from now GW2 will have their base of 500k-1m active players as it was with GW1 IF it even reaches that.

 

I wouldnt be so sure, Ive been a member here since 2009, EGA since the 2nd day,

I had never even heard about guild wars 2 until early july and never played GW1. With no expectations going in, I have been more then impressed, it just feels like a 2012 MMO.

 

And honestly besides minor bugs, which Arena Net is capable of hotfixing the most QQ I see is from former SWTOR players in general map chat.

 

Not only am I saving 15 bucks a month now, but Im also playing a better game!

[Wayshuba]

SWTOR had more than 3mil copies sold on launch with preorders included and it did beat the 400k on early acess so badly that BW had to shutdown early acess due to abusive numbers of pre-orders.

Your point is??.

 

First of all, EAs own published claims were 350k concurrent users and 2.7M copies sold.

 

Second, my point is trying to rationalize server population decline to school starting when GW2 has shown this isn't the case at all. It's not like kids are in school 24 hours a day.

[Wayshuba]

So you're saying it will be... more popular than SWTOR?

 

Just FYI. GW1 reached 7 million players. Yes, 7 million! This has been reported by both ArenaNet and NCSoft.

 

Secondly, as has been shown earlier in this thread, it is NOT normal for MMO population to decline after launch. It actually is more normal for it to increase. This will most likely happen with GW2 as it did with GW1.

 

There is a reason they believe they can actually overtake WoW as the industry leading MMO.

Edited August 30, 2012 by Wayshuba

[Soluss]

Most of the people left are the ones that like story and not much else. How long do you think it will be until that story runs out? There is no class story in the pipeline. Its too expensive to make. Makeb will have world arc story only... and look how long that is taking to release. You will be charged extra for it. How many people you think are going to pay? The people comming to F2P are the ones that would just finish the class stories.... they didnt feel was worth 15 bucks a month for. Not likely they will be willing to pay for ops and warzones when they wouldnt sub for it. Considering the class stories are free, I dont think BW is going to make much more money.

 

Story ends. Without subs to create more story, it will be a looooooooong time before they update it. Subs are going to continue to decline. You can only make so many alts and have nothing left but dailies.

[Dein_Cathair]

 

Second, my point is trying to rationalize server population decline to school starting when GW2 has shown this isn't the case at all. It's not like kids are in school 24 hours a day.

 

Sorry, but from having the opportunity to watch server populations for possibly more years than you have been alive,

I can tell you that this is not the case.

 

When school is out, it creates an artificial bubble, which normally increases populations in games. When school is in session kids are in school, doing homework, doing sports associated with school, etc,etc.

 

There is a verifiable effect, which is most noticeable during the day ( when they are in school) and it's usually pretty obvious. Server populations of ANY game decline when school is in session and increase during vacations.

 

Case closed.

Edited August 30, 2012 by Dein_Cathair

[Urael]

Most of the people left are the ones that like story and not much else (PvE and RP servers still strong at "Heavy" Pops each night ... the PvP crowd has dwindled down to Standard). How long do you think it will be until that story runs out? There is no class story in the pipeline. (For 1.4 perhaps ... but future story is planned if recent interviews are to believed.) Its too expensive to make (Source? ... It has been said that much of the VO has been accomplished for future story releases.). Makeb will have world arc story only... and look how long that is taking to release. You will be charged extra for it (Unconfiremed). How many people you think are going to pay? The people comming to F2P are the ones that would just finish the class stories.... they didnt feel was worth 15 bucks a month for (But have limited access). Not likely they will be willing to pay for ops and warzones when they wouldnt sub for it (Opinion.). Considering the class stories are free, I dont think BW is going to make much more money (Sky is falling).

 

Story ends. Without subs to create more story, it will be a looooooooong time before they update it (If what you project is true the game will die .. so um no). Subs are going to continue to decline (Actually they could increase once people get to try it for free). You can only make so many alts and have nothing left but dailies (Depends on your personallity actually, I have 20 and am still having fun. ).

 

I have to disagree.

[Soluss]

I have to disagree.

 

Its ok to disagree. Its just my opinion, based on past experience, on whats going to happen.

[Urael]

Its ok to disagree. Its just my opinion, based on past experience, on whats going to happen.

 

I just don't have as dour an outlook on SWTOR. I still see plenty of people playing each night and I don't see a lot of complaints if any at all in the general chat on the four servers on which I play. The mergers seemed to have helped. All of this is from a PvE perspective. I just don't think it's going to be as bad as everyone on these forums continue to forcast.

[Rafaman]

Most of the people left are the ones that like story and not much else. How long do you think it will be until that story runs out? There is no class story in the pipeline. Its too expensive to make. Makeb will have world arc story only... and look how long that is taking to release. You will be charged extra for it. How many people you think are going to pay? The people comming to F2P are the ones that would just finish the class stories.... they didnt feel was worth 15 bucks a month for. Not likely they will be willing to pay for ops and warzones when they wouldnt sub for it. Considering the class stories are free, I dont think BW is going to make much more money.

 

Story ends. Without subs to create more story, it will be a looooooooong time before they update it. Subs are going to continue to decline. You can only make so many alts and have nothing left but dailies.

 

Sorry. I have to call you out once again as you are speaking for the SWTOR community. First and foremost, I think you will agree that you are making a huge generalization. You don't know why "most" people remain here. You have your opinion based on your biases but that is hardly quantifiable by any means. And let me add that for many of us, specifically in my guild, new leveling content is not the carrot. We have other goals and pass times that are very much in line with what this game has to offer especially for endgame.

 

EDIT: Removed paragraph that was just a little too salacious.

Edited August 30, 2012 by Rafaman

[Styxx]

I don`t give a dime on story and I`m still here . But when my friends will leave, so will I, regardless of the state of the game. Or they might try to sell me Makeb, and, as a sub.. I`ll leave on my own

[Andryah]

it is NOT normal for MMO population to decline after launch. It actually is more normal for it to increase.

 

It used to be this statement was correct for MMOs.

 

Not any more. Rift went from 600K to 250K on a pretty much straight line decline from launch to end of 2011. And most people laud that game as having the best launch ever, best developer team, best patch content and new content in the industry. Yet it bled out subs (on a % basis) almost identically to SWTOR

 

Tera, no data yet, but if you watch the server loads for Tera (West) it looks pretty similar.

 

TSW, yep.... looking very similar.

 

MoP expansion... have to wait and see, but if the last WoW expansion is any indicator, Blizzard will draw people back for a few months and then bleed out even worse then they did on their last expansion (talking paid subs here, not phoney pay-2-play subs in Asia).

 

Point being.... the MMO market has changed. The player base is much more transient in behavior, and hops from game to game if there are new games coming. It's a combination of factors..... burnout of the genre, lack of perceived innovation (even though most modern MMOs are innovators to some degree), change in consumer preference (ie: F2P rather then Subs), etc. etc. It does not matter so much the reasons, it matters that it is becoming the norm in the industry to consume and discard MMOs like they are the latest console game to be beaten and thrown on the shelf.

 

The new normal for MMOs appears to be hyperactive launch activity, followed by high slope linear decline to about 30% (give or take) stable subs, followed by slow (very slow actually) growth from there on. GW2 may be able to break out of the paradigm, but given consumer behavior, I would not bet money on it. Just because it is free to play after purchase does not mean people will stay active in it. It does however have one strong leverage point.... WvWvW PvP, providing people actually play it for what it is instead of zergfest city. It could be an oasis of PvP in an MMO PvP desert. Not sure though if it will be as we cannot underestimate the ability fo the community to trash and discard even novel MMO content they say they want and often demand to have.

Edited August 30, 2012 by Andryah

[CharleyDanger]

So you're saying it will be... more popular than SWTOR?

 

GW2 is free to play though. SWTOR had 500k-1Million people paying $15 a month 6 months in. Now that SWTOR is going F2P it will have a lot more than a Million players. The IP alone will bring more than a Million when it is F2P. I am not saying GW2 is not a good game, I am enjoying it, but on a lvl playing field... GW2 beat Star Wars? I just do no think that will happen.

 

Again, I love both games, and will be playing both a year from now, but the Star Wars IP trumps all most of the time. Especially when its free lol.

Edited August 30, 2012 by CharleyDanger

[CharleyDanger]

Most of the people left are the ones that like story and not much else. How long do you think it will be until that story runs out? There is no class story in the pipeline. Its too expensive to make. Makeb will have world arc story only... and look how long that is taking to release. You will be charged extra for it. How many people you think are going to pay? The people comming to F2P are the ones that would just finish the class stories.... they didnt feel was worth 15 bucks a month for. Not likely they will be willing to pay for ops and warzones when they wouldnt sub for it. Considering the class stories are free, I dont think BW is going to make much more money.

 

Story ends. Without subs to create more story, it will be a looooooooong time before they update it. Subs are going to continue to decline. You can only make so many alts and have nothing left but dailies.

 

Most of the people left are the ones that like story and not much else? On my server there are around 500 people on fleet, and according to the "who window" the vast majority of them are lvl 50s. When I go to Belsavis I see 50 ppl, and most them are lvl 50s. When I go to Kass I see less than 100, and still that 100 has lvl 50s. It looks like most of the people left are the ones that enjoy playing with their 50s.

[TUXs]

First of all, EAs own published claims were 350k concurrent users and 2.7M copies sold.

 

Second, my point is trying to rationalize server population decline to school starting when GW2 has shown this isn't the case at all. It's not like kids are in school 24 hours a day.

 

2.7 or 2.4? I thought it was 2.4 at the max number reported so far. If it's 2.7, do you happen to have a link? Just curious, not trying to doubt you.