AshlaBoga Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 (edited) Let's see what the highest reasonable number is (the maximum within reason). I'd say that during prime time you can get about 250-450 on the fleet in packed (in comparison to the dead ones) servers. If the fleet is 20% then that's 350x5 then multiplied by 2 for the other faction. So 7000x5= 35k. Let's say that is half the people subbed. So for North America that would 12 servers x 70k. 840k. In other words, there is no way in HELL that the game has 850k subbed. I'd say closer to 3/4 that at around 500-700k. Edited July 31, 2012 by AshlaBoga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporin Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 I'll be kind and say "500k". (We'll probably never know. The car salesman doesn't tell you the engine will fall out after 8 months of buying it... Why is there oil everywhere??? ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toweleeeie Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 When does this meeting happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordKOLZ Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 I'll be kind and say "500k". (We'll probably never know. The car salesman doesn't tell you the engine will fall out after 8 months of buying it... Why is there oil everywhere??? ). Two reasons you have to expect the number count to be pretty damn low is because we only have 12 US servers in a short matter of time and then you never see EA or BW announcing a new sub count. Companies love to brag how many subs they have on games so that is just another sign of how low the count has to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporin Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 When does this meeting happen? Think I read the results would be out at 5pm eastern time (US). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporin Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Two reasons you have to expect the number count to be pretty damn low is because we only have 12 US servers in a short matter of time and then you never see EA or BW announcing a new sub count. Companies love to brag how many subs they have on games so that is just another sign of how low the count has to be. Agreed. I was being nice to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord_Karsk Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Remember there are also quete alot of people on the light locked servers guessing 1/10 on what is on the heavy servers.Guessing there is around 800-900 000+ players playing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arlbo_Nabbins Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Let's see what the highest reasonable number is (the maximum within reason). I'd say that during prime time you can get about 250-450 on the fleet in packed (in comparison to the dead ones) servers. If the fleet is 20% then that's 350x5 then multiplied by 2 for the other faction. So 7000x5= 35k. Let's say that is half the people subbed. So for North America that would 12 servers x 70k. 840k. In other words, there is no way in HELL that the game has 850k subbed. I'd say closer to 3/4 that at around 500-700k. You do realise that there are servers outside the US that regularly have 350+ on fleet at prime time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THAAC Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Whatever numbers are "declared official" you can probably half that to get a true reflection. Rushing out the report before the 6-month subers run out, so they can be included in the results. And of course every trial account will be a +1 for the numbers. EA will pad the results any way they can to make it look as good as possible. Anything more than 400-500k is a blatant lie. I'm just wondering if EA are ballsy enough to try and pull off the lie they still have over 1 mill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emeda Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 (edited) Remember there are also quete alot of people on the light locked servers guessing 1/10 on what is on the heavy servers.Guessing there is around 800-900 000+ players playing. What makes you think that? There are some but to think its a 1/10 of what heavy servers are is a joke. On average at the most there are maybe 25 per light server. On Firkrann crystal before the transfers there was only about 15 so to say there are more after is wrong. I do love how all the high guesses of 700k and up are all just made up opinions with absolutly nothing to back up their reasoning, Edited July 31, 2012 by Emeda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emeda Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Whatever numbers are "declared official" you can probably half that to get a true reflection. Rushing out the report before the 6-month subers run out, so they can be included in the results. And of course every trial account will be a +1 for the numbers. EA will pad the results any way they can to make it look as good as possible. Anything more than 400-500k is a blatant lie. I'm just wondering if EA are ballsy enough to try and pull off the lie they still have over 1 mill. They didnt rush out the report. It would have been about this time no matter the details. Now adding free time to players so that 6 month subs can be counted for this is a different story. I wonder if they will try and imply that all the 6 month subs are over and no longer counted. I think everyone knows they are going to pad the numbers, they are also going to make sure the blame for any drop in subs is because of either the players or something out of their control and not EA/Bioware or SWTOR as the reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Overtone Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Whatever the results I hope there is a significant change be it good or bad. Personally I want to see all the dooms day threads pop up if the population has dropped significantly. Some men just want to watch the world burn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bennis Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 How long till these go up. First time posting in a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldenstar Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 how long till these go up. First time posting in a long time 5:00 pm est Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bennis Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 5:00 pm est AEST? Or in USA? Derp sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldenstar Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 aest? Or in usa? Derp sorry gmt -5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdob Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Not sure about my math, but if the concurrent users are estimated at 36,000 and you multiply that by the number of hours in a day divided by the average hours a player plays, you should be able to get the number of active players. I would guess the average hours played is somewhere between 1-2 hours which would put active players somewhere below with subs a bit higher? 36,000 * 24/1 = 864,000 active players 36,000 * 24/1.5 = 576,000 active players 36,000 * 24/2 = 432,000 active players Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ensquire Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 (edited) The information i had wasn't current, sry Edited July 31, 2012 by Ensquire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leeoben Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 1,3 million is the official number EA is giving as the current subscriber base One thing you should note that should not be encouraging, is the number is reflected by April numbers and it now July, this 1.3 million is not a current number. The fact that they didn't give a current number suggests a dive in Subscription numbers of Olympic proportions The fact that the CEO has down played this games importance to EA success also suggest the game is not performing as well http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...Y12_Script.pdf Through the end of the quarter, approximately 2.4 million units have sold through. In our last call we indicated that we had 1.7 million active subscribers, and as of the end of April we now have 1.3 million, with a substantial portion of the decrease due to casual and trial players cycling out of the subscriber base, driving up the overall percentage of paying subscribers. We have already launched a number of initiatives designed to grow subscriptions. The initial responses have been positive and we are encouraged by the gaming community’s reaction. In summary, we delivered an extraordinary launch of a solidly profitable long-term franchise, which contributed to both our gross and operating margin improvements in fiscal 12. We expect this title will further expand our margins in fiscal 13 as we get the full year benefit of subscription revenue. Let us give you two additional points of perspective as it relates to our current subscriber base and its impact on our fiscal 13 guidance. First, the current number of active subscribers, 1.3 million, is very consistent with the original assumptions we made when we acquired BioWare in 2008. Second, while this franchise is very profitable, it only represents a mid-single digit percent of our total profitability in fiscal 13. Not sure if you realize but the report you quoted is from May 7th. So it makes sense for them to report the subscription numbers for the end of April. At 5pm EST today there will be a new quarterly report released that will likely contain more current numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ivanhedgehog Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 And why was that exactly? Do you remember? It was because most servers couldn't get enough people together for a freaking Ops. It was mainly to quiet the screams of the pvp community who didnt have que times quick enough to keep them happy. I never had trouble getting an ops going on MZL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ensquire Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 (edited) Not sure if you realize but the report you quoted is from May 7th. So it makes sense for them to report the subscription numbers for the end of April. At 5pm EST today there will be a new quarterly report released that will likely contain more current numbers. Ty my bad,I jumped the gun, typically they put a date in italics next to the PDA, this one didn't so I assumed that the one i selected out was current as of today Edited July 31, 2012 by Ensquire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emeda Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Not sure about my math, but if the concurrent users are estimated at 36,000 and you multiply that by the number of hours in a day divided by the average hours a player plays, you should be able to get the number of active players. I would guess the average hours played is somewhere between 1-2 hours which would put active players somewhere below with subs a bit higher? 36,000 * 24/1 = 864,000 active players 36,000 * 24/1.5 = 576,000 active players 36,000 * 24/2 = 432,000 active players Thats not how concurrent users and estimating the subs of a game has worked in any other game. Its basically avarge concurrent users over a 2 week period X 10. Which would be 360,000 for this game now. That again including the F2P to 15 players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dandamanno Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Not sure about my math, but if the concurrent users are estimated at 36,000 and you multiply that by the number of hours in a day divided by the average hours a player plays, you should be able to get the number of active players. I would guess the average hours played is somewhere between 1-2 hours which would put active players somewhere below with subs a bit higher? 36,000 * 24/1 = 864,000 active players 36,000 * 24/1.5 = 576,000 active players 36,000 * 24/2 = 432,000 active players The generally accepted number of active subbed players on at any given time for an mmo is 10%. This would equate to around .1*24=2.4 hours/day. That is why your 2 hour estimate is close to what others have been estimating for sub numbers. Hey have we decided what the prize will be for the closest number? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dandamanno Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Based on the "Concurrent login" thread somewhere around here at around 36,000, and the quote that "at any time 10% of the total population are logged on" I would guess initially 360,000. Add in the number of people with subs who are not logging in 'cause they have quit and those with free trials I'll add in another 100,000. Then I'll add another 40,000 as padding for the fact that the concurrent login thread is only an average estimate. So I am guessing around 500,000 subscriptions. But stable. So do I win something or what, lol. Well apparently it is "well over" 500k and there is no actual number given but I was pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ntranced Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 (edited) So do I win something or what, lol. Well apparently it is "well over" 500k and there is no actual number given but I was pretty close. Can't be much more than 500k, I'd say based on statement it is around 540k. If it was 750 you would say "well over 750k" and if it was 610k you would say "over 600k". Edited July 31, 2012 by Ntranced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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