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In YOUR opinion: Will subscription rates drastically go down?


Thelegendiryoku

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Most of what you have posted here are incorrect.

 

1. The number of people upset about the current state of the game is a rather large portion of its total population. In the range of somewhere between 25 - 35%.

 

2. The game already has a few hundred thousand accounts that have not resubbed just 1 day after the first free month.

 

3. Bioware so far has proved that they do not have the ability to correctly address the issues and need to bring in a new design lead and department heads who will handle the game better.

 

4. This game has actually gone into the negative subscription per week numbers. It is currently losing players faster then it is growing. Due in part to the massive number of players who physically cannot run the game on their machines even though greatly exceeding the minimum requirements, gross faction imbalances have caused huge rifts in subscription renewals on the republic side of the game. This will cause there to eb even less republic players and cause even larger rifts in the population imbalance. You see its a huge chain reaction.

 

5. The actual PVP community of any given MMORPG is statistically around 40%. This is not as you stated" a small minority". And most of SW:TORs PVP community agree that this game is just about the worst PVP game ever released at launch, and due to their PVP addiction have already moved on, or are giving the game at least 1 more month of Sub time to see what happens.

 

6. In just 4 days time the Metacritic score for SW:TOR has fallen from 9.0+ to around 5.. That is pretty much the fastest any MMORPG has ever fallen in score.

 

Based on your response I see you are suffering from an incorrect assumption:

 

Because the majority of posters on the forum are unhappy, the majority of the players are also unhappy. The VAST majority of people who go to the forums are going there to complain, therefore forum perception is never relevant as it is completely biased towards negativity and never represents the playerbase as a whole.

 

I should also point out that the Metacritic score is also going to suffer from the exact same flawed analysis. There are only 523 negative reviews, of which the vast majority have been lodged over this one issue. That skews the score and makes it useless as it is being driven down by angry people who are not objectively reviewing the game but rather (again) hyperbolically presenting their anger through an unwarranted review.

 

I'd be happy to review those subscription numbers for you to verify their authenticity. Please send me the link to the source.

 

As for Bioware, their response (or perceived lack of one) has proven nothing yet. MMO developers always take a long time to respond to issues, even when they have been around for years. When you consider that Blizzard took 5 years to even acknowledge the pet health bug or the auto-target bug and STILL haven't fixed them, I think it speaks volumes of Bioware that they have actually communicated with us that they are aware of the problems.

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I see.

But 500 out of 2millions is extremely extremely small sample though.

 

Actually its a rather large test sample if you compare it to what the FDA or other government agencies use.

 

Drug companies may run a test group of 2000 for a drug that is going to be delivered to 200+ million people. Then when these drugs fail these companies get sued and still make ridiculous profits. It is a tried and true system.

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its an MMO they hit a bump in the road every now and again. People cry and leave all the time because someone took their ball. To the guilds that pick up and leave at the 1st sign of trouble, good luck in mmos in the future. you wont find one that will suit you.

 

American made MMOs have an avg of 6-8 months before server merges come. BW will most likely follow this. They made the same mistake as every other company out there. Opened too many servers too fast before the free month was over. There is no doubt that there will be merges but, whether that is due to a crappy game, we will have to see.

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I made this thread in hopes for DEVs to read this, not to hear the same people discussing why are leaving.

 

I hope Bioware learned from SOE and will actually listen to their subscribers. Were the reason you get a check every month, don't listen to us, you will lose money.

 

They did listen. Everyone complained Jedi were an alpha class, overpowered, even combat medics with their dots... Fact is in swg they did listen to all the people complain. Then they implemented the combat downgrade and even more people complained. So they implemented the nge and guess what people still complained. The problem was they listened to the loudest voice, not the voice of the many...

 

Look at the 50's bracket.. Yes, it should have been initiated at start but then how long would the hold queues be? So now you have your 50's bracket and people still complain. Why? Because imps are better geared.

 

Honestly, I don't see an issue with the brackets right now. I've been winning near half the matches and only have a few pieces of gear. Even if you lose, you still get commendations and will get gear eventually.

 

Spend less time complaining and more time playing.

 

 

Oh, for those leaving, can I have your stuff??

Edited by Pacolypse
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Why does everyone say population imbalace is going to kill the game?

For PVPers maybe, but this is a PvE game...

 

How on earth does it change the game for a republic PvE player if there are more Imperial PvE players on the server tehy are on?

 

Does it keep them out of theirs little 4 man vs a ton of mobs instances?

 

Does it change the pretty vocie acting they seem to love?

 

Doe it make their "uber raids" more difficult when?

 

For a game where the majority of the players likely don't even interact with the enemy faction AT ALL, why the heck would population imbalance mean anything at all?

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Pvp server subscriptions will take a noticeable decline in April. They may or may not return but that will be the first major spike if the pvp crowd isn't satiated before then.

 

That's their timeline for nailing pvp down. I'm sure the same event affects pve but I doubt to the same degree.

 

I'd say the other product t has the advantage with 3 faction pvp and access to all skills. Hard work and some innovative thinking from bioware and/or a bad launch by the other could swing the pendulum the other way however.

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Based on your response I see you are suffering from an incorrect assumption:

 

I should also point out that the Metacritic score is also going to suffer from the exact same flawed analysis. There are only 523 negative reviews, of which the vast majority have been lodged over this one issue. That skews the score and makes it useless as it is being driven down by angry people who are not objectively reviewing the game but rather (again) hyperbolically presenting their anger through an unwarranted review.

 

.

 

Here is where you are wrong. there is a total of 966 fan reviews. Over 400 of those are negative. About 350 of those negative reviews are more then 2 weeks old. That is a small test sample from the players on this game who even care enough to go to an outside website and give feedback on a game. The reason websites such as these work is because mathematically they offer a more balanced and truthful outside view then a developer will give of their own game.

 

So on a highly respected and well known media rating website over 40% of the reviews are below average or negative. It is just another test sample of the population as a whole. but I don't expect to convince you. You are just another "white knight" in "Rose tinted Glasses".

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the rate of vanishing subs i predict will mirror the rate of QQers who disappear from the forums.... think about that....

 

real hard..

 

least the forums will be quieter.

 

Which means those of us who survive the next couple months will have Forum Valor level 100.

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No. Subscriptions will rise because despite the problems this game has, and unlike what you see with other games, the devs are clearly, CLEARLY, so clearly you'd have to be a blind troll not to see it....working to improve this game at a rate which I have never seen before in a MMO.

 

I do not foresee subs "drastically" going down, they may drop periodically, but I would be willing to bet that within 3 months you will see an overall growth in this game.

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April?

Three factions?

 

Planetside 2 finally get a release date?

 

This game loses me for at least a month or two when PS2 hits even if SOE totally balls it up. Heck, Planetside 2 is why I have this game set up for monthly rather than three month or 6 month subscription.

 

 

Raging Primates, Vanu forever!

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No. Subscriptions will rise because despite the problems this game has, and unlike what you see with other games, the devs are clearly, CLEARLY, so clearly you'd have to be a blind troll not to see it....working to improve this game at a rate which I have never seen before in a MMO.

 

I do not foresee subs "drastically" going down, they may drop periodically, but I would be willing to bet that within 3 months you will see an overall growth in this game.

 

funny thing is, head of EA said all this game needs is 500k subs to make a profit, and as long as hey are making a profit, they will continue to work develop and grow. all those angry forum critics will come running back as if they were loyal fans the entire time. the forums are a small representation of the entire playerbase, forums are made for qqing. and lets be honest, go to the wow forums and you will see same thing. Yet wow hasnt toppled. and those qqs have been around for 7 years.

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Sub rates have already gone down.

 

http://massively.joystiq.com/2012/01/19/electronic-arts-stock-in-danger-thanks-to-swtor-fumbles/2

 

for the definition of churn:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Churn_rate

 

So to the people demanding subscription numbers, already knowing that data cant be cited because it's confidential, can refer to and email the stock analyst working with Brean Murray Carret & Co, and explain how he's wrong from your mom's basement.

 

Numbers don't lie, financials don't lie. SWTOR all by itself moved the stock down. That tells you everything you need to know.

 

That being said, i'm still hanging around a month or two, these things take time to fix, and patience is required.

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Here is where you are wrong. there is a total of 966 fan reviews. Over 400 of those are negative. About 350 of those negative reviews are more then 2 weeks old. That is a small test sample from the players on this game who even care enough to go to an outside website and give feedback on a game. The reason websites such as these work is because mathematically they offer a more balanced and truthful outside view then a developer will give of their own game.

 

So on a highly respected and well known media rating website over 40% of the reviews are below average or negative. It is just another test sample of the population as a whole. but I don't expect to convince you. You are just another "white knight" in "Rose tinted Glasses".

 

I understand your thinly veiled ad hominem attack with your "white knight" comment. You play the game well with your personal attacks that are gussied up just enough to avoid being easily recognized as a flame. My point is irrelevant because I am a "fan boy". I'm not going to report you for it, but I do ask that you refrain from it going forward.

 

Now then, as for Metacritic, I must have sorted wrong when I originally checked it but you are correct that of the 400 negative reviews 350 are older than this particular issue. The critic rating is still quite high and the total number of personal reviews is still quite low when you consider how many players there are.

 

My point about the forums stands though, people only log on when they have a reason to, and that reason is usually because they are experiencing a problem which is why the general tone cannot be used as a determinator.

 

My point is, this is a big deal to you because you perceive it to have affected you (even that can be debated). The fact that it is a big deal to you does not mean it is a big deal to the rest of the player base, of which I'm certain have not started "seriously" PvPing yet since the game is still new (consider how many complaints have been lodged about long queue times now that level 50s are in their own bracket. That suggests that the number of PvPers may not be very high at this point on many servers. Granted, this assumption is tainted by the forum rule above regarding negativity as well as possibly impacted by intentional restraint from PvP due to the patch, but still, it is something to consider).

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My point is, this is a big deal to you because you perceive it to have affected you (even that can be debated). The fact that it is a big deal to you does not mean it is a big deal to the rest of the player base, of which I'm certain have not started "seriously" PvPing yet since the game is still new (consider how many complaints have been lodged about long queue times now that level 50s are in their own bracket. That suggests that the number of PvPers may not be very high at this point on many servers. Granted, this assumption is tainted by the forum rule above regarding negativity as well as possibly impacted by intentional restraint from PvP due to the patch, but still, it is something to consider).

 

It's nothing to consider. You are apologizing for BW because your method of play PvE is all fine and dandy. In fact, the concerns of churn (see my post above, the one you conveniently glossed over) have pulled the stock down. One game, from a company with huge IP license (gee, all major american sports) got it's stock lowered by one game. That's the PvP community making it's voice heard. There are far more PvPers than carebears want to believe, and I still don't understand the unfounded prejudice of people who hate because I'd rather play a non-scripted encounter.

 

Trying to spin that is fruitless, and if you care to try, I'll refer you to the analyst that does it for a living. Email that guy, i'm sure he'll be amused.

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It's nothing to consider. You are apologizing for BW because your method of play PvE is all fine and dandy. In fact, the concerns of churn (see my post above, the one you conveniently glossed over) have pulled the stock down. One game, from a company with huge IP license (gee, all major american sports) got it's stock lowered by one game. That's the PvP community making it's voice heard. There are far more PvPers than carebears want to believe, and I still don't understand the unfounded prejudice of people who hate because I'd rather play a non-scripted encounter.

 

Trying to spin that is fruitless, and if you care to try, I'll refer you to the analyst that does it for a living. Email that guy, i'm sure he'll be amused.

 

That dip in stock price that has already been wiped out with rapid gains...

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To PulseXXX,

 

What are you laughing at?

 

As part of that, a Pacific Crest analyst raised his predictions of quarter sales for SWTOR from 1.5 to 2.2 million, with 800,000 subscribers. Another analyst claims that over two million units of SWTOR have been sold since launch with an expectation that 75% to 90% of players will stay on as paid subscribers following the first free month.

 

Before the quoted phrase, it jumped back 2%. It felled 3%. So it didn't even out yet. Also look at the quote. Over 2 million units of swtor have been sold. But there's only 800,000 subscribers. What the hell happened to over 1.2 million of people who bought the game? And only 75%-90% will stay after the first month?

 

Nothing to laugh at.

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