MeNaCe-NZ Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Yes, they explicitly were pulling in exceptional numbers during that Quarter: After KOTFE was announced in June 2015, subscriptions went up a remarkable 31% for the July 2015 - September 2015 Quarter, which is why this 1% dip relative to that Quarter is hardly the doom and gloom scenario people are painting it as. Just a for a bit of devil's advocate on that I had wondered if the 31% necessarily applied to that period. We would assume so because well it's mentioned in that Q2 report but the wording is a little strange as they mention the launch of the expansion having just occurred ( Q3 then ) and mention that the 31% increase in subs is since the announcement so I do wonder if they cut off the measure at Sept 30 or carried it forward into October to make that statement. You would assume it must be from July-Sept as that's the period but it's still interesting how they worded that entire part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeNaCe-NZ Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 All that's being done here is people are speculating. Thanks for stating the obvious and welcome to the internet. I don't believe anyone is here is endeavouring to state facts so if a discussion like this isn't for you because it's "speculation" perhaps you shouldn't be participating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthDymond Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 (edited) Just a for a bit of devil's advocate on that I had wondered if the 31% necessarily applied to that period. We would assume so because well it's mentioned in that Q2 report but the wording is a little strange as they mention the launch of the expansion having just occurred ( Q3 then ) and mention that the 31% increase in subs is since the announcement so I do wonder if they cut off the measure at Sept 30 or carried it forward into October to make that statement. You would assume it must be from July-Sept as that's the period but it's still interesting how they worded that entire part. I don't think it's an unreasonable question to raise, given the wording, but in the context of it being a Quarterly Report and that section of the release specifically saying they are giving highlights of that Quarter, I think it's most likely on the up-and-up. Would I be absolutely flabbergasted to learn that they had snuck in an extra month where the game was on an upward tend for that one spot where they were providing "color" to their Quarterly numbers? No, not really, but on balance I don't think it's the most likely scenario either. SWTOR's not one of their flagship games or anything, they don't need to talk it up if it's not actually performing (as clearly evidenced in the Quarterly Report that spurred this thread). Edited November 15, 2016 by DarthDymond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlienEyeTX Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 (edited) Thanks for stating the obvious and welcome to the internet. I don't believe anyone is here is endeavouring to state facts so if a discussion like this isn't for you because it's "speculation" perhaps you shouldn't be participating? Thanks, Chief. Edited November 15, 2016 by AlienEyeTX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kodrac Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 (edited) Thanks, Chief. You know what's funny? I put him on ignore and even without his million posts, the thread (all of them) still reads seamlessly. Shocker. Edited November 15, 2016 by kodrac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeNaCe-NZ Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 You know what's funny? I put him on ignore and even without his million posts, the thread (all of them) still reads seamlessly. Shocker. Who are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlienEyeTX Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 You know what's funny? I put him on ignore and even without his million posts, the thread (all of them) still reads seamlessly. Shocker. But, but... if I ignore him, how will I learn how to internet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeNaCe-NZ Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 But, but... if I ignore him, how will I learn how to internet? I did a thing called a "Google search" for you to help you out, here is a good result. http://www.learnthenet.com/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TX_Angel Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Right. And, the thread title is misleading (shocker!), as SWTOR was not the sole reason for the $1mm drop, but was a significant contributor. So, we really just know that something fewer than 66,667 subs left... or at least stopped subbing. During a time which corresponds to schools and universities resuming classes. The other thing that we don't know is how much the game was or is bringing in through subs. We don't have real context of what the basically unknown number even means. But, obviously, the game is shutting down tomorrow and I just wasted my time typing this. The game isn't shutting down tomorrow, even if half the subs left, so that doesn't mean much... Note: I think you misunderstood the $1 million loss... How do you know that SWGOH didn't gain $10 million and SWTOR lost $11 million? That would be a $1 million loss, but a massive drop for SWTOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amodin Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 A 1% loss in net revenue is not the same thing as being negative-profit. It just means last quarter you made $100 and this quarter you made $99. That doesn't even qualify as a failure, and makes no mention at all of cartel market profits. ^ This. I love all of the financial vultures sitting around the game, waiting for the demise in the reports, when really it's not even there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlienEyeTX Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 The game isn't shutting down tomorrow, even if half the subs left, so that doesn't mean much... Note: I think you misunderstood the $1 million loss... How do you know that SWGOH didn't gain $10 million and SWTOR lost $11 million? That would be a $1 million loss, but a massive drop for SWTOR. You are correct. That just goes along with my statement that the info is meaningless because we have no context. Not that the mere lack of information will stop certain internet geniuses from inventing their own reality for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUXs Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 The game isn't shutting down tomorrow, even if half the subs left, so that doesn't mean much... Note: I think you misunderstood the $1 million loss... How do you know that SWGOH didn't gain $10 million and SWTOR lost $11 million? That would be a $1 million loss, but a massive drop for SWTOR. EXACTLY! Glad you posted this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Transcendent Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Losing money on a project and a decreased revenue are not the same thing. The first is about not gaining enough money to cover your investment, the second is about a relative number, but it can still retain the possibility of profit (a gain from investment) The two sentences are not synonymous in this context. I explained that two pages ago, and I'm not going to explain it in detail again. TUX is being as deliberately hostile towards Bioware as usual. The terminology was still correct, even in the context it was used. I suggest you perhaps take time to reference that dictionary you kindly pointed TUXs to on the meaning of the word "loss". Argue semantics all you like, I was just pointing out that the word was used correctly in this instance, contrary to your own point of view on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeNaCe-NZ Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 EXACTLY! Glad you posted this A few people had posted similar within this thread - it seems those that want to defend the game/expansion what have you selectively pick the posts they attack as opposed to trying to actually debate the valid points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tsillah Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Yes not necessarily a harbinger of doom but I can't help thinking that if 5.0 were being really positively received perhaps more people would be like "oh well they lost some subs but 5.0 will bring them back" but for most it's 5.0 will drive away more. Well, by itself it's not a harbinger of doom, but it also doesn't mean all is well either. Information about 5.0 is also rather late and of course the "pre-order" rewards, Shae Vizla in particular didn't start till after the close of the quarter we are discussing. It's still unknown what 5.0 will or will not do, but I suspect that the story continuation by itself will bring a bunch of people to sub at least for a month or two. At this stage I don't see Q3 getting anywhere near last year either because they had their biggest sub level during that quarter this year ( and torstatus had heavy servers from Late Sept - Feb, we've had none since ) and we aren't even close to touching that. December would actually to out perform that highest sub point by a massive factor to out do last year because we had a good solid 2+ months in the quarter last year of high player numbers that we've not seen at all this year. Well, people subbed for 4.0 but also then there was a LOT of criticism about 4.0 and what they were doing with ops in particular. Now it is very well possible that 5.0 doesn't generate the same interest, but we just don't know. I get that the expansion is a month late and instead we'll see a boost in Q4 over the previous Q4 ( and no doubt it will be reported as such ) but at this stage the financial year itself looks like it will struggle to come close to the previous year. Well do mind that the expansion came out in October last year and now end of November/early December. That's still the same quarter, so quarter 3. What's interesting there is that the people resubbing for the expansion, including the pre-order rewards will now be wholly in the same quarter. Quarter 4 will be interesting to see how many people stick around this time. Personally I think three things are key there: 1) How good is the story 2) The livestream in January 3) How will GC and Uprisings turn out I hope the story will be better than KotFE but I'm not holding my breath. The livestream should hail in a new era for group content, but will it? I have reasons to be wary of GC and once I try it out I will find out if it's what I feared or if it's actually ok. Also not holding my breath there. It's interesting though because if you look at NcSoft and their financial reports, they are much more specific about their franchises than EA is here. One more thing to consider is that the category in the 10-Q report is not just subs but Subscriptions, advertising, and other. I have to wonder if that Senya/Vaylin trailer for 5.0 was paid for in this quarter because that must've cost em a bundle too and that could also explain part of the loss in this category as it's advertising costs. But what really matters to me in the end is whether I will like 5.0 or not. If I do, I'll keep playing, if not then I won't. With all the numbers in the world that's the only decision I can really make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jozkopucik Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 I have gone through those EA Quarter reports and put together some of the statements about swtor. The interesting thing is how Swtor was put aside once Battlefront launched and then even totatly put aside once the other titles have launched (Galaxy of Heroes etc). From those reports its obvious that swtor is the lowest priority for EA. What I liked was the info about the sub level and state of the game: July, 2012 "The disappointing results of Star Wars - The Old Republic were largely offset by a powerful performance from Battlefield 3 premium service Although it launched well, subscriptions have been on a declining trajectory" October, 2012 "Star Wars has underperformed" May, 2013 "Since it was induced in November, we've added more than 1.7 million new players on the free model to the service. And the number of subscriptions has stabilized at just under half a million" Thats why they used the term "active players" since then January, 2014 "decline in Star Wars: The Old Republic subscription revenue, as the free-to-play offering continues to grow" More active F2P but less subs January, 2015 "Shadows of Raven, attracting many more people into the game with this epic new storyline" check the misspelling of the expansion name October, 2015 "we launched a major expansion for Star Wars: The Old Republic on Tuesday. Subscriptions are up 31% since the expansion was announced to their highest level since February 2014" So in January 2014 they said decline in subs, thats why its the highest level cause they used the lowest possible number to compare it with January, 2016 "Our most recent update to Star Wars: The Old Republic has fueled subscriber growth with its rich content and deep storytelling" This is when people subbed once to see 9 chapters, then again to see all 16 chapters, then unsubbed Yes, I would say the situation is bad, mainly when I have read how they only talk about Battlefront and the other games, but not swtor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jozkopucik Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 I think you'd actually be surprised how many players like me there are. Yup and that is the problem of swtor, the raiders left at the start when there was over 1 mil subs, what is left are casuals. The raiders that did stay after launch are slowly leaving. Now there are maybe 100 of us left and we are the loudest on forums, but we are a minority when it comes to game population. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deaconik Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Yup and that is the problem of swtor, the raiders left at the start when there was over 1 mil subs, what is left are casuals. The raiders that did stay after launch are slowly leaving. Now there are maybe 100 of us left and we are the loudest on forums, but we are a minority when it comes to game population. As it looks on the population and density of players on servers I would say that BW ignored every content except the story so long they are left with mostly story players. Who are making the EA boss scream at them about subscription Yup, "metrics". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eartharioch Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 (edited) January, 2016 "Our most recent update to Star Wars: The Old Republic has fueled subscriber growth with its rich content and deep storytelling" Did I miss an expansion? All I got was KotFE. Edited November 16, 2016 by eartharioch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jozkopucik Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Did I miss an expansion? All I got was KotFE. That is what I wanted to say with those posts, they started saying swtor is great when it launched, yet i didnt include those lines, since it was obvious. The came the first negatives since people started droping subs at an alarming rate! They swapped to the F2P model, which kept a lot of players in the game. Since launch there wasnt any good news only when KOTFE SoR launched and then again on Kotfe, but that was it, they can only go back to those to launches to claim any good numbers, rest of it is a steady decline, just like now! I bet this will be the only expansion which wont have such great news about subscription amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jozkopucik Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 As it looks on the population and density of players on servers I would say that BW ignored every content except the story so long they are left with mostly story players. Who are making the EA boss scream at them about subscription Yup, "metrics". Imagine youre working at Bioware (and suck at playing swtor ) and you see the numbers in front of you: 500 people do operations 500 people do PVP 50 people do GSF 50 000 people are leveling characters what would you next steps be as for the game content? Since majority of the people are leveling toons or in other words "doing the story" that is what you should give the people! After SoR there was no content. People either left or leveled toons out of boredom! We were 10 ppl in our guild at that time and from those 7 leveled toons out of boredem, played the stories, did different choices etc. So thats why the game is going that direction. The 1050 people cant shout louder than the 50k ppl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deaconik Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Imagine youre working at Bioware (and suck at playing swtor ) and you see the numbers in front of you: 500 people do operations 500 people do PVP 50 people do GSF 50 000 people are leveling characters what would you next steps be as for the game content? Since majority of the people are leveling toons or in other words "doing the story" that is what you should give the people! After SoR there was no content. People either left or leveled toons out of boredom! We were 10 ppl in our guild at that time and from those 7 leveled toons out of boredem, played the stories, did different choices etc. So thats why the game is going that direction. The 1050 people cant shout louder than the 50k ppl And we return back to the metrics and how to interpret them. If I say people cannot live without oxygen it won't help if I give them 100 % oxygen to breathe. You need to see the context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jozkopucik Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 (edited) And we return back to the metrics and how to interpret them. If I say people cannot live without oxygen it won't help if I give them 100 % oxygen to breathe. You need to see the context. Um OK, Im not getting it then I hope you know that majority of the people in the game dont want group content, they dont want ops, its too hard for them. HM FPs are too hard for them!! Thats why we got KOTFE! Edited November 16, 2016 by jozkopucik Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deaconik Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Um OK, Im not getting it then I hope you know that majority of the people in the game dont want group content, they dont want ops, its too hard for them. HM FPs are too hard for them!! Thats why we got KOTFE! Sure, I was questioning the way how we got this HUGE majority (it was probably majority even during the rich times, but not that big) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jozkopucik Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Sure, I was questioning the way how we got this HUGE majority (it was probably majority even during the rich times, but not that big) Well I guess thats a Star Wars thing, people seem to come to this game for RP. I have a friend in a RP guild on Progenitor and when i see what they are doing when playing swtor i just shake my head. Imagine a room in the Coruscant senate tower with a big table and chairs, there you see around 40 people sitting and standing and RPing. Its crazy!! They are not the only ones, those people are the majority in the game. They dont visit swtor forums, but tor-fashion to see how to dress for the event or occasion. The game has raiders, but it mainly has such people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts