dawg_bone Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 (edited) It's the gambler's fallacy. "I'm due" has more or less kept the Casino industry alive. The notion that y will happen because x has occurred so many times. Some people have mentioned the "You don't complain that you didn't win $50 mil on a lotto ticket", but that's a tough thing to relate to for people. People know the lottery is millions to one in terms of odds. You expect to lose. It's tougher for people to grasp things like a 1% chance at something. They look at 1% and go, 1 in 100, so they try it 120 times, giving themselves a cushion, and have trouble grasping why it didn't work out. To get a true idea of how an RNG works, use the following site: http://www.randomizer.org/form.htm For: How many sets of numbers do you want to generate? = 100 (or 120, 200, whatever... this is your number of packs) For: How many numbers per set? = 1 For: Number range (e.g., 1-50): set it to 1-100 (for 1%), 1-200 (0.5%), 1-1000 (0.1%), etc... Run it. Now look and see how many numbers don't show up. It would probably surprise quite a few people. I ran the following simulation 10 times (small sample, but you get the idea). Number of sets = 140 Numbers per set = 1 Number Range = 1-100. Out of those 10 simulations, in 5 of them, 10 or more numbers didn't occur. In 3 of them, 4-9 numbers didn't occur. In 2 of them all numbers occurred at least once. The lowest occurring number was 72, which happened 3 times in 10 simulations (1400 total attempts, which is 0.02%) In all 10, at least 4 numbers occurred at least twice. In 5, at least one number occurred 5-9 times. In 1, 1 number occurred 10 times. The highest occurring number was 61, which came up 52 times (1400 total attempts, which is 3.6%) If you ran the same simulation again, it would give you completely different results. So you could buy 1440 cartel packs and get 3 jetpacks if the RNG happened to be 72 for it. Or you could buy 50 and get 2, if the RNG happened to be 61 (rounding up here a bit). When they announced the slot machine nerf, I ran this simulation for the mount and realized it would basically be pointless trying to get it. Edited March 26, 2015 by dawg_bone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUXs Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 An wise adult knows enough to respect how others choose to spend their money and live their life and refrains from sanctimonious soap-boxing whether they agree with it or not. An adult or a A wise adult...never An wise adult... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUXs Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 I have a theory. Most people I've talked to have acquired their Jetpack via singular packs. I and a few others have opened ginormous amounts of HYPERCRATES without the Jetpack drop. I surmise that the Jetpack somehow got left out of the HYPERCRATES on accident. 100% PROOF that Bioware is scamming ya'll! Buy the individual packs NOW, before they nerf it!!! Let's teach em a lesson!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toweleeeie Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Thanks for funding my MMO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SgtJeremy Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 I hate when my lottery tickets don't pan out either. Send in a ticket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacta Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 I bought a hypercrate and got the jetpack out of the 2nd pack I opened. Thanks Bioware! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthOvertone Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 I have a general question for the peeps that buy lots of packs or crates at once. If you buy 100 packs, or whatever amount, where do you put all the junk you get? I've opened a couple packs here and there and I always get a bunch of stuff that clutters my toon's inventory. You can't sell the stuff for like 2 days or something. So where do you guys put all that junk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bachannal Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 I have a general question for the peeps that buy lots of packs or crates at once. If you buy 100 packs, or whatever amount, where do you put all the junk you get? I've opened a couple packs here and there and I always get a bunch of stuff that clutters my toon's inventory. You can't sell the stuff for like 2 days or something. So where do you guys put all that junk? Max out your Cargo Hold slots, max out your Legacy Hold slots...profit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUXs Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Max out your Cargo Hold slots, max out your Legacy Hold slots...profit. Even then, don't you run out of room? You can't mail anything to an alt, nor can you put anything in a Legacy bank for 2-days...do you open packs on a character other than your main? I may be doing it wrong but I leave everything in the "pack" until I need it (unless I can consume it or stack it)...at which time I go through 300 boxes, but that's my poor inventory management skills. What do you do with 3 hypercrates worth of goods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xIphonex Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Well I wasn't the OP, I just commented with my 240, then 264 packs I purchased to finally get it. I am not complaining, and I see how that is a lot of money to some people. However, I make more than a typical person's income. I can see people thinking its frivolous, but money is different for different people. So for instance, if I make 200k a year, does that mean I can spend $400 compared to someone who spends $100 and makes 50K a year? Its a good argument but not realistic. I have a regular type car that is around 50k and paid off. I have a big house with a rather small mortgage and a low interest rate, I also have a bunch of electronics and toys I buy. However, most other things cost me around the same as the cost everyone else. So after all is said and done, I have a larger disposable income after I have my necessities and savings all taken care of. I still manage to put $1800 a month in my retirement, and $2000 a month in savings, and I still buy things I don't need. I also donate to charity with both time and money. So am I stupid? That can certainly be debated, however, I don't drink, don't smoke, don't go out all the time, I eat reasonable healthy food, and spend my weekends and free time hiking, biking and doing things that cost nearly nothing. So yes, $400 might be too much for some people, but gaming is my hobby and I spend my money that I work hard for on what I like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xIphonex Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Oh, and once you unlock all the inventory slots for every char you make, you can have a lot of alts full of gear. However I would like them to add a lot more room. It hasn't changed since launch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bachannal Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Even then, don't you run out of room? You can't mail anything to an alt, nor can you put anything in a Legacy bank for 2-days...do you open packs on a character other than your main? I may be doing it wrong but I leave everything in the "pack" until I need it (unless I can consume it or stack it)...at which time I go through 300 boxes, but that's my poor inventory management skills. What do you do with 3 hypercrates worth of goods? Nope...decor, companion gifts, and jawa scrap can all go in legacy hold. The rest is manageable. Of course, I oftentimes have to cycle out old stuff to make room for new stuff if I haven't sold stuff for a while, but I try and be consistent about rotating out stuff if it's been sitting a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PavSalco Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 What's your avg price for Jetpack on your servers? On the Progenitor every jetpack that was under 8 mil has been sold. Now those which are still on GTN go for 9-15 mln. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XiamaraSimi Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 (edited) I have a general question for the peeps that buy lots of packs or crates at once. If you buy 100 packs, or whatever amount, where do you put all the junk you get? I've opened a couple packs here and there and I always get a bunch of stuff that clutters my toon's inventory. You can't sell the stuff for like 2 days or something. So where do you guys put all that junk? Non generic xp boosts and companion gifts are tradeable, i throw the gifts in my legacy cargo hold, and all the useless exploration/space/social yadda yadda boosts to an alt in the miniscule chance they will one day let us sell that garbage to a vendor. Rep items are sold to a vendor, and jawa scraps also go into legacy storage. Everything else, thats what having 5 cargo hold tabs unlocked for is. (Once items unbind, they are sorted by type and sent to alts. One gets crystals, one gets weapons, et cetera to be held in their personal storage) Edited March 26, 2015 by XiamaraSimi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Papazmurf Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 (edited) Well I wasn't the OP, I just commented with my 240, then 264 packs I purchased to finally get it. I am not complaining, and I see how that is a lot of money to some people. However, I make more than a typical person's income. I can see people thinking its frivolous, but money is different for different people. So for instance, if I make 200k a year, does that mean I can spend $400 compared to someone who spends $100 and makes 50K a year? Its a good argument but not realistic. I have a regular type car that is around 50k and paid off. I have a big house with a rather small mortgage and a low interest rate, I also have a bunch of electronics and toys I buy. However, most other things cost me around the same as the cost everyone else. So after all is said and done, I have a larger disposable income after I have my necessities and savings all taken care of. I still manage to put $1800 a month in my retirement, and $2000 a month in savings, and I still buy things I don't need. I also donate to charity with both time and money. So am I stupid? That can certainly be debated, however, I don't drink, don't smoke, don't go out all the time, I eat reasonable healthy food, and spend my weekends and free time hiking, biking and doing things that cost nearly nothing. So yes, $400 might be too much for some people, but gaming is my hobby and I spend my money that I work hard for on what I like. I think you'll find even people that make the same amount or near as much as you still might think spending $400 on CC stuff is silly. However, I am a firm believer in spend your money how you want to spend it. You don't need to justify or have it make sense to anybody. Edited March 26, 2015 by Papazmurf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ekwalizer Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 I opened 120 Master's Shadow Pack's and NOT A SINGLE "MSM JT-2 Jetpack". Is that mount even in the pack or not? I bought ONE pack and got it. Random is random. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trintric Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 I bought 10 hypercrates, so 240 packs. I got 0 jetpacks and 1 Vorontikus (third from the last pack). I realize its gambling, but I thought the odds were a little better than that. I wont cry though. It's comforting to know SWTOR remains very profitable. It'll run for a long time like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OddballEasyEight Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 OP hasn't been back to comment = This is a troll thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sxykitten Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 OP hasn't been back to comment = This is a troll thread. probly friend bought 5 Crates bit ago. i watched him open them... 7 jetpacks from 5 crates. 4 vorks. and 9 soas..... hate say it but think they increased the drop or he had rly good rng Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lyzarus Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 bought 2 packs, Jetpack in the first one. I should go buy a lotto ticket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master-Paulus Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 I was lucky... only bought one pack and got one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midianlord Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 OP hasn't been back to comment = This is a troll thread. Remember that other thread about how the OP allegedly spent something like USD 800.00+ on Hyopercrates and didn't get what they felt they were entitled to? Yeah, s/he got me too, and it went on for like 60+ pages. Maybe we have another one like that a'birthing here? Because when all is said and done, that was frigging hilarious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trancejeremy Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 (edited) The thing is, there is random and then there is random. Like take a deck of cards. You have a 1 in 52 chance of pulling out any given card, but if you draw 52 cards, you are guaranteed to eventually get that card. In many collectible gaming products, in particular collectible miniatures games, they use that sort of random distribution. If you buy a sealed case, you'll get every figure. So that why, people who spend huge amounts of money don't feel disappointed and keep spending huge amounts of money in the future. They should implement something similar here. I'm sure they won't, but I think they should, rather than relying on completely random, essentially an infinite number of card decks that are all shuffled together. Edited March 27, 2015 by trancejeremy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorldSmasher Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 (edited) CARTEL MARKET A BIG SCAM Well.... It is run by Hutts. You know? Edited March 27, 2015 by WorldSmasher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curulz Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Why? Because you're not rich enough and jealous to do the same? Agreed. It bugs me when people try to force their value system on others. It really speaks to character Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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