The sky isn't falling. A numbers based view.

[Soluss]

Actually, this analysis is perfectly timed to assess what is released IN the up coming conference call. Think of this analysis as the intial hypothesis with the conference call being the "observed" state.

 

I disagree. If that were the case then it should have been done at the end of the last conference call and as I said before it should be based against the same time frame of other MMOs otherwise it isnt a fair consensus. Rift for instance is releasing a new expansion next month and their numbers may jump quite a bit. Which would hugely change the outcome of both Rift and ToR. Many variables have changed since then so its not likely that the data is even relevant anymore. For instance, and this is just and example not a prediction.... They could say, at the call, subscribers have dipped under 500k. The proposed median rate of 45% would shoot down to about 28% which is a huge difference.

 

Now if you want me to think of this as prediction to what is going to still be....Then its no better then anyone else's prediction that this thread was created to stop.

Edited October 26, 2012 by Soluss

[Tim-ONeil]

With the new conference call comming next week, this thread would have been better suited to wait until then. As it stands the data is old news and not indicative of what is current. If another source wasnt comming out for months then that would be one thing but we know a new source will be comming next week. IOW, its silly to debate this now when the data will most likely have different results next week.

 

A better analysis for your topic would be to use data to show what each MMO has done in its first 6 months. That would be more reliable to show true comparitive results. The reason being is this... As an example, you show WoW statistics. It is not really a fair comparison because the game is 8 years old. Not many people stick with anything for 8 years. Most people will go for the new shiney as apposed to the old outdated.

 

So take all those MMOs, in your list, and post the data for their 6 month after launch mark. That would be the fair comparison. As it stands you are judging a comparison of not only old data but also data of a 10 month old game a 1.5 year old game a 8 year old game etc.... Again, its slanted statistics because its judging a retention rate and current sub numbers of something relatively new versus something years old. People always go for the new thing.

 

It's a fluid discussion and will be changed based on the outcome of that call. That doesn't make this any less relevant.

 

I reject the rest of the statement however. The data presented is presented in context.

 

Current subscribers are listed for all the AAA MMO's with this sub model that are frequently discussed on this forum. There's nothing wrong with showing the current marketshare as people base their discussions on what is happening TODAY so this is a perfectly valid way of illustrating that.

 

If I had used 6 month retention numbers people in here would be going crazy since that would have been the 1.3 million subscriber mark for SWTOR. It's an interesting discussion but I'd be accused of having an agenda.

 

Additionally we are nearing the 1 year mark and the data we have will be relevant to that. For ease of updating the only thing that has to change in the model I've used for 1 year retention outlook is SWTOR's sub numbers. The rest will remain the same forever.

Edited October 26, 2012 by Tim-ONeil

[Urael]

I disagree. If that were the case then it should have been done at the end of the last conference call and as I said before it should be based against the same time frame of other MMOs otherwise it isnt a fair consensus. Rift for instance is releasing a new expansion next month and their numbers may jump quite a bit. Which would hugely change the outcome of both Rift and ToR. Many variables have changed since then so its not likely that the data is even relevant anymore. For instance, and this is just and example not a prediction.... They could say, at the call, subscribers have dipped under 500k. The proposed median rate of 45% would shoot down to about 28% which is a huge difference.

 

Now if you want me to think of this as prediction to what is going to still be....Then its no better then anyone else's prediction that this thread was created to stop.

 

I saw this analysis in two ways: the first to assess SWTOR against it's competition and the second, to assess the overall industry trend. In that light I see this analysis as sheding some light on the over all notion vs. all the emotion and knee jerk reactions.

[Soluss]

It's a fluid discussion and will be changed based on the outcome of that call. That doesn't make this any less relevant.

 

I reject the rest of the statement however. The data presented is presented in context.

 

Current subscribers are listed for all the AAA MMO's with this sub model that are frequently discussed on this forum. There's nothing wrong with showing the current marketshare as people base their discussions on what is happening TODAY so this is a perfectly valid way of illustrating that.

 

If I had used 6 month retention numbers people in here would be going crazy since that would have been the 1.3 million subscriber mark for SWTOR. It's an interesting discussion but I'd be accused of having an agenda.

 

Additionally we are nearing the 1 year mark and the data we have will be relevant to that. For ease of updating the only thing that has to change in the model I've used for 1 year retention outlook is SWTOR's sub numbers. The rest will remain the same forever.

 

If that is your attitude then I reject your entire data set and analysis. The way you are going about it would be like judging how many people have iphone 5 vs how many people have a flip phone. People always flock to the new and improved versus staying with the old and outdated. Not judging them based on the same time frame is just a poor analysis.

[Soluss]

I saw this analysis in two ways: the first to assess SWTOR against it's competition and the second, to assess the overall industry trend. In that light I see this analysis as sheding some light on the over all notion vs. all the emotion and knee jerk reactions.

 

So if you want to go buy industry trend then the sky is indeed falling. Industry trend would show that this game will only be good for a few years at best.

Edited October 26, 2012 by Soluss

[Anyakaschala]

To OP, your numbers are off.

 

The NA/EU for WoW doesn't have 6.5 mil people. At most maybe 4.5mil. China has always had the majority of WoW population and as thus skews the numbers because their payment model is so much less than ours.

 

I'd also point out that I think the standard for most mmo's, at least as far as mmo's is concerned is going to be about a 25% retention rate. Even WoW has stated that they've seen around 40mil people subscribe during it's lifetime.

 

 

The main thing I'd point out is that if people really want SWTOR to succeed then they need to step up their game. With the game going F2P, it means that their probably will be a ton of new players coming into the game to check it out. It really is up to the current population to encourage them to stick around. Or in other words, don't be elitist *****.

 

What I mean by this, and I'm pretty new to the game, and when I go into an instance for the first time or even a heroic4, I'll tell people that. But I've had a few people l2tank, and quit an flashpoint without comment other than I don't play with nubs. Granted, I know I wasn't the greatest, but I'd add that as a new guardian, I didn't even realize I wasn't in the tanking stance, and I didn't have guard up. Just those 2 things would have changed the flashpoint, and if those things were mentioned, I would have done it immediately, and would have changed the run.

 

If the community wants this game to succeed, we can only do that by doing it ourselves, to encourage new players, to be helpful when needed, and take a chance and help the newbies.

[Tim-ONeil]

So if you want to go buy industry trend then the sky is indeed falling. Industry trend would show that this game will only be good for a few years at best.

 

Urael summed it up exactly.

 

The trend of MMO's is not a positive one right now and I am illustrating that. There's no rose color filter here.

 

Future statements about the game should be tempered in light of the F2P model and the call next week. If we are going to make statements however based on how the other games that have moved from sub to sub + F2P have done this would trend very positively for SWTOR.

[Urael]

The trend of MMO's is not a positive one right now and I am illustrating that. There's no rose color filter here.

 

Future statements about the game should be tempered in light of the F2P model and the call next week. If we are going to make statements however based on how the other games that have moved from sub to sub + F2P have done this would trend very positively for SWTOR.

 

At the point that SWTOR goes F2P a new analysis should be started:

 

1. SWTOR vs. other F2P games only.
   
2. SWTOR + other F2P vs WoW (since it is top dog right now)
   

 

Run the analysis until the next conference call use those results to assess and repeat each conference call for a year and do a look back for the trend.

Edited October 26, 2012 by Urael

[Tim-ONeil]

To OP, your numbers are off.

 

The NA/EU for WoW doesn't have 6.5 mil people. At most maybe 4.5mil. China has always had the majority of WoW population and as thus skews the numbers because their payment model is so much less than ours.

 

I would be happy to update it if you can provide a link to one of the Activision/Blizzard investor calls where they give the NA subscription number.

[Tim-ONeil]

At the point that SWTOR goes F2P a new analysis should be started:

 

1. SWTOR vs. other F2P games only.
   
2. SWTOR + other F2P vs WoW (since it is top dog right now)
   

 

Run the analysis until the next conference call use those results to assess and repeat each conference call for a year and do a look back for the trend.

 

I plan on doing this, subject to available data of course.

[TUXs]

I would be happy to update it if you can provide a link to one of the Activision/Blizzard investor calls where they give the NA subscription number.

 

While I'm certain that those numbers may not exist, I believe comparable numbers aren't nearly as hard to find as you're making it sound (initial box sales). What you're using for your data is skewed. I'm not against you doing your best to determine a reasonable retention rate for SWTOR, but I feel you're being very disingenuous when you toss out 700k+ people.

[quantumsheep]

Just a quick point about the 2.4million box sales and the 700k that never subscribed.

 

A long time ago I worked on a games industry trade paper as a journalist. Companies would always boast about their sales figures.

 

What a lot of them did (including EA at the time if I remember correctly) was bolster their figures by giving me the 'shipped' numbers. i.e. the amount of boxes that had been sold to retailers, not the amount actually sold by retailers to consumers.

 

Because of this I would always end up asking if these were 'shipped' or actual 'sold' figures - and nine times out of 10, they would have to go hunt for the 'sold' figures

 

In my experience, this a probable explanation for the mystical '700k' that never even installed the game.

 

Unless of course someone has a link that I've missed that shows the 2.4 million boxes were actually *sold* and in consumers hands, but they just didn't bother to install it.

 

Interesting discussion though. A good read!

 

QS

[Erasimus]

I would be happy to update it if you can provide a link to one of the Activision/Blizzard investor calls where they give the NA subscription number.

The chart linked shows Western Subs at 5m +. However, as of October 4th Blizzard had already sold 2.7 Million MoP and the prediction is that they will sell 4.5 million in Q3. By all accounts total WoW subs are once again headed North 10 million.

 

I'm still hanging around to see if SWTOR can get it right, but I cancelled my sub for the time being. I am playing MoP at the moment. My server is very active and I'm seeing lots of new pople. MoP was very well done.

Edited October 26, 2012 by Erasimus

[simplius]

only 60 k in STO? i would have thought more

 

but i really dont see decline in mmo business,,just so many more games now

 

this one,TERA secret world, GW2,,all in a short timespan

 

i wish they would slow down the pace and FINISH the games , before launching them

[Urael]

While I'm certain that those numbers may not exist, I believe comparable numbers aren't nearly as hard to find as you're making it sound (initial box sales). What you're using for your data is skewed. I'm not against you doing your best to determine a reasonable retention rate for SWTOR, but I feel you're being very disingenuous when you toss out 700k+ people.

 

TUXs, .. I have been "googling" off and on all morning and I have yet to find the over all initial box numbers for WoW. I have seen the "first month" articles which are something like intial sales of vanilla at 240k in first month with 100k active players in that first month ( which was HUGE back in the day). I guess if you measure just the first month of vanilla WoW vs. SWTOR, SWTOR kicked WoW's butt?

Edited October 26, 2012 by Urael

[Soluss]

Urael summed it up exactly.

 

The trend of MMO's is not a positive one right now and I am illustrating that. There's no rose color filter here.

 

Future statements about the game should be tempered in light of the F2P model and the call next week. If we are going to make statements however based on how the other games that have moved from sub to sub + F2P have done this would trend very positively for SWTOR.

 

Only for a short time. Lotro has just had another round of layoffs and restructuring. Considering that they just launched an expansion, thats pretty bad.

[simplius]

yea,,if wow had launced like this,,EVERYTHING would be pandaland now:eek:

[Soluss]

Just a quick point about the 2.4million box sales and the 700k that never subscribed.

 

A long time ago I worked on a games industry trade paper as a journalist. Companies would always boast about their sales figures.

 

What a lot of them did (including EA at the time if I remember correctly) was bolster their figures by giving me the 'shipped' numbers. i.e. the amount of boxes that had been sold to retailers, not the amount actually sold by retailers to consumers.

 

Because of this I would always end up asking if these were 'shipped' or actual 'sold' figures - and nine times out of 10, they would have to go hunt for the 'sold' figures

 

In my experience, this a probable explanation for the mystical '700k' that never even installed the game.

 

Unless of course someone has a link that I've missed that shows the 2.4 million boxes were actually *sold* and in consumers hands, but they just didn't bother to install it.

 

Interesting discussion though. A good read!

 

QS

 

Dont have a link and im not going to bother wasting my time looking for it again. They stated 2.4 millions sold. That included digital sales iirc. You make an assumption that those were not installed but thats an assumption. They never said they were not installed, they simply said they didnt convert to a paid account. A sale is a sale reguardless on if they sub or not. If they do not sub then it is still a loss of retention. Its unlikely that someone would pay 50 to 150 bucks and let it sit on the shelf.

[Rayla_Felana]

I had to reply to your post just to read it. Seriously, consider a different color font.

 

Consider turning up your brightness, haven't had any complaints beforehand, or perhaps it's your eyesight, regardless, that's an excellent way to debate my point.

[Tim-ONeil]

The chart linked shows Western Subs at 5m +. However, as of October 4th Blizzard had already sold 2.7 Million MoP and the prediction is that they will sell 4.5 million in Q3. By all accounts total WoW subs are once again headed North 10 million.

 

I'm still hanging around to see if SWTOR can get it right, but I cancelled my sub for the time being. I am playing MoP at the moment. My server is very active and I'm seeing lots of new pople. MoP was very well done.

 

Correct, my bad. I'll update the original post.

 

WoW stopped reporting their western sales numbers back in 2010. In 2011 WoW lost 2 million subscibers total over their operation. This is based on information I can find on a top level google search.

 

Until they give us accurate up to date data, or you are able to find it online for me the number we have will be a fine estimate. It's still the biggest game in town but a sizable amount over all other MMO's with that sub model.

[quantumsheep]

Dont have a link and im not going to bother wasting my time looking for it again. They stated 2.4 millions sold. That included digital sales iirc. You make an assumption that those were not installed but thats an assumption. They never said they were not installed, they simply said they didnt convert to a paid account. A sale is a sale reguardless on if they sub or not. If they do not sub then it is still a loss of retention. Its unlikely that someone would pay 50 to 150 bucks and let it sit on the shelf.

 

 

This is my point though. Companies would, a lot of the time, say they 'sold' a certain amount - it looks a lot more impressive to say 'we sold 1m copies' when in reality they'd sold that 1m into retail but had only really sold 500k to consumers.

 

Which makes a sale not always a 'sale'

 

As you yourself say, " Its unlikely that someone would pay 50 to 150 bucks and let it sit on the shelf."

 

I completely agree with you. And for that reason the 700k that did not sub at all has always not sat right with me and made me think they are literally the copies still sat on the shelf at retail.

 

Thanks for the response.

 

QS

[Tim-ONeil]

Dont have a link and im not going to bother wasting my time looking for it again. They stated 2.4 millions sold. That included digital sales iirc. You make an assumption that those were not installed but thats an assumption. They never said they were not installed, they simply said they didnt convert to a paid account. A sale is a sale reguardless on if they sub or not. If they do not sub then it is still a loss of retention. Its unlikely that someone would pay 50 to 150 bucks and let it sit on the shelf.

 

I don't disagree with you here. That's not the point of contention. I originally intended to do a box sale to sub retention comparison and there is no data available.

 

In that context the number adjusted for that is completely meaningless on it's own. I hope you understand what I mean.

Edited October 26, 2012 by Tim-ONeil

[Soluss]

TUXs, .. I have been "googling" off and on all morning and I have yet to find the over all initial box numbers for WoW. I have seen the "first month" articles which are something like intial sales of vanilla at 240k in first month with 100k active players in that first month ( which was HUGE back in the day). I guess if you measure just the first month of vanilla WoW vs. SWTOR, SWTOR kicked WoW's butt?

 

I wouldnt say they kicked WoWs but. WoW had sold out everywhere. It took some time before more copies were produced and at the time I dont believe digital was popular so I dont believe you could pay and download.

 

World of Warcraft breaks the recordsWithin the first day, over 200,000 players created World of Warcraft accounts. By 5:00 p.m. PST, over 100,000 were playing the game concurrently. These two record-breaking numbers made World of Warcraft the fastest-growing MMORPG in history. Within a single day, all original 40+ World of Warcraft servers were filled to capacity, and by the end of the Thanksgiving weekend, more than 40 additional servers were deployed to meet the rapidly growing player base, as the number of new accounts and concurrent users continued to grow."We were all extremely pleased with the success of World of Warcraft on its first day of launch," said Mike Morhaime, president of Blizzard Entertainment. "Once we saw the numbers for the first day, we knew that we had to immediately increase capacity to accommodate the huge numbers of players joining our game. We're glad so many people are enjoying World of Warcraft, and we are dedicated to supporting a fun and smooth game experience for everyone."Retailers across North America reported that the World of Warcraft launch was unequivocally their biggest day-one sales in PC gaming history. Leading industry retailers, such as Wal-Mart, Best Buy, EB, and GameStop, all reported that hundreds of their stores sold out of World of Warcraft within the first day."World of Warcraft has once again shown that Blizzard consistently delivers the best games in the industry," said Robert McKenzie, vice president of merchandising at GameStop. "It sold better than any other PC game this year – in fact, World of Warcraft enjoyed the best day-one sell-through GameStop has ever seen on a PC title!"Over the Thanksgiving weekend, players continued to buy World of War

 

The important thing to note is that WoW continued to grow and grow and grow. It didnt start a decline until years later. Which is why I said your data is unfair. You want to show retention rate then its unfair to compare an 8 year old game to a relatively new one. WoWs true first year retention rate was over 100%.

[Soluss]

Consider turning up your brightness, haven't had any complaints beforehand, or perhaps it's your eyesight, regardless, that's an excellent way to debate my point.

 

I like your font color.

[Soluss]

This is my point though. Companies would, a lot of the time, say they 'sold' a certain amount - it looks a lot more impressive to say 'we sold 1m copies' when in reality they'd sold that 1m into retail but had only really sold 500k to consumers.

 

Which makes a sale not always a 'sale'

 

As you yourself say, " Its unlikely that someone would pay 50 to 150 bucks and let it sit on the shelf."

 

I completely agree with you. And for that reason the 700k that did not sub at all has always not sat right with me and made me think they are literally the copies still sat on the shelf at retail.

 

Thanks for the response.

 

QS

 

A publicly traded company cannot lie like that. It would be against the law.