Subs down 25%

[JeramieCrowe]

What content stream?....

 

This has seriously made me worry for this game. I really wanted it to do well, but it seems like it really is going to crash and burn like the previous Star Wars MMO after all

 

Well, let's see here, let's use the MMO hailed as the one that puts out the most content as comparison, shall we? Rift:

 

Let's see, RIFT launched:

 

Without an LFG tool

Without open-world PvP (PvP rifts were almost 8 months later)

Without server transfers

Without an endgame, only one raid (Tor launched with 2)

With only one storyline for all classes

With 6 hour queues

...

Need I go on? Yes, I think I will:

 

The first major patch in RIFT had only one raid that became available April 16th, 47 days after launch. It had a plethora of

 

attempted class balance nerfs that broke more than it balanced, and was only about half the size of TOR's first major patch. 47 days after launch to get

 

2 raids, the number of raids TOR launched with. And they were easy, cleared by guilds in no time.

 

In contrast, TOR's first major patch was January 17th, 28 days after launch, almost half the time of RIFT, and included a new

 

Flashpoint, doubled the size of an Op (effectively a new raid zone), and fixed more bugs right the first time than Rift ever wish they did.

 

 

 

The next major patch in RIFT brought the LFG tool and wardrobe slots on May 10th. It offered NO NEW CONTENT. The

 

next patch to offer new content wasn't until Hammerknell on July 27th, 149 days after launch.

 

In contrast, TOR's next major patch brought another Warzone, another Operation, Legacy, new dailies and gear on Corellia, balance passes that fixed more

 

than it broke on April 12th, 114 days after launch. TOR had more endgame content faster than RIFT did.

 

So far, TOR's doing better.

[nysis]

There are people like me who bought at launch then quit and came back for 1.2

 

WoW is out of my system completely. I always planned on coming back once tor got things settled down a bit post launch.

[Tristal]

Not that I really care because it doesn't make a difference to the numbers but...

 

Why does everyone keep saying that "oh it's only 25%, most other games lose way more than that after 5 months on the market" without actually providing any evidence?

[JeramieCrowe]

Not that I really care because it doesn't make a difference to the numbers but...

 

Why does everyone keep saying that "oh it's only 25%, most other games lose way more than that after 5 months on the market" without actually providing any evidence?

 

Because all the evidence is readily available. mmodata.net much? To name but one source.

Edited May 8, 2012 by JeramieCrowe

[Rezakh]

[Citations DESPERATELY needed]

 

As I mentioned in my post, go search for them. It has been a long time since I have seen/read those interviews. I can say they are probably 5-7 years old now well before they even mentioned this would be a star wars game. I was following bioware that far back cause I was looking forward to a game that would compete with WoW.

 

Walton was one of them talking about it, but I am not sure who it was in the video I saw. I would imagine either Walton or Ohlen, but don't quote me on that.

[Tristal]

Because all the evidence is readily available. mmodata.net much? To name but one source.

Like I said, it doesn't make a difference and typically, I don't care enough to go and check myself, but I shouldn't have to as i'm not the one posting this "information"

[illgot]

just wait until Diablo 3 releases.

 

Then wait another month and a half until GW2 and TSW releases.

 

I really hope Bioware gets their cross realm PvP and server transfers going fast. Not that it matters for me, I'm canceled and just waiting for one of the 3 above games to come out.

[BlueFromMoon]

Call me evil hater but I cant see why they give free months and weekends if theres over 1 mill sub.

 

Elder Scroll Online where Im going next.

[HeavensAgent]

Like I said, it doesn't make a difference and typically, I don't care enough to go and check myself, but I shouldn't have to as i'm not the one posting this "information"

In that case you have no reason to disbelieve it, then.

[Mrpoodles]

even if we drop to 250k players thats still good. not every mmos need 10million players.

[Sanxxx]

'John Riccitiello - CEO: This is John. A couple of quick up on STAR WARS before we turn to digital margins. I understand that a lot of investors are very interested in STAR WARS, so I just wanted to put a couple of thoughts in perspective. (indiscernible) mentioned on the call. First up, STAR WARS performance right now is very much in line with our original assumptions and the assumptions in (indiscernible) on the last couple of years, where that (quits) in our portfolio is in terms of profitabililty from a franchise. It is in our top ten, but it's not in our top five. So as a business contributor, while important, it is not as important as Medal of Honor or Battlefield or FIFA or Madden, or the Sims or SimCity. But it's more important than Tiger Woods PGA Golf. So while I understand there is an enormous amount of interest, I don't know it warrants as much as what we are seeing right now, but we love the franchise, we are going to grow the franchise and just like we want to see Tiger Woods Golf grow or SSX grow, or Madden for that matter we're going to drive this one for growth.'

 

SWTOR is so much more downplayed in this conf call, lots of weasel words as well.

[CaptainHagbard]

Well, let's talk profit and use only the official numbers as reference:

 

First there were 2.4 Millions sales for an estimated average of 60 USD each, which means they grossed 144 Million USD from box sales only. Then there was at least one months with 1.7 Million paying subscribers, which adds up to 25.5 Million USD and lastly three months with at least 1.3 Million subscribers, which means additional 58.5 Milliion USD revenue. So all in all they made at least 228 Million USD in their first four months, which means they have earned the costs of develeopment and have broken even fairly fast.

 

I don't know if that's enough for EA to keep on funding the game, but at the moment it seems to generate a steady income and supposedly earns its costs, so why wouldn't they?

[Mrpoodles]

just wait until Diablo 3 releases.

 

Then wait another month and a half until GW2 and TSW releases.

 

I really hope Bioware gets their cross realm PvP and server transfers going fast. Not that it matters for me, I'm canceled and just waiting for one of the 3 above games to come out.

 

d3 sadly was lame.

 

d1/d2 fan here from my high school days.

 

its not as great as people think it is.

 

also its not a mmo. dont get why people think d3 is going to make less players.

[RachelAnne]

Not that I really care because it doesn't make a difference to the numbers but...

 

Why does everyone keep saying that "oh it's only 25%, most other games lose way more than that after 5 months on the market" without actually providing any evidence?

 

The evidence is there, just google the numbers.

 

Wow lost about 15% of its customers since WOTLK, keep in mind that ASIA subs are actually deducted from the sub drop, so the reality for Europe and US is most likely around 30-40% if not more.

 

As I said, the LFG etc. that you guys keep making responsible for less subs aint the true reason. The truth is, that people were just jumping over from wow or other MMO´s to get some fresh air and are now probably back in their other MMO again.

[Rezakh]

Call me evil hater but I cant see why they give free months and weekends if theres over 1 mill sub.

 

Elder Scroll Online where Im going next.

 

They gave free subs probably because they viewed these numbers as a failure, internally. It was their intent to compete with WoW and they had name recognition both from the star wars brand along with their development company which is very well known for putting out excellent RPG experiences.

 

It's not a failure in what it is as your average MMO standing very short in the shadow of WoW. It is a failure with what it originally intended to do compared to WoW.

[RobNightfall]

[Citations DESPERATELY needed]

 

Uh, dude, seriously, those claims were all over the place. I appreciate the financial data, but what he's reporting is actually fairly common knowledge. They were written up in some interviews and spoken and recorded in videos too. This isn't an APA document, citations on common knowledge are not needed.

[mothermonterr]

We'll be getting as much content as tiger wood's golf does guys. All is good.

[Ghaiana]

25% is ok, it's less retention than the average MMO. People who say oh...boy, they lost 25% of their customers forget that the game market is a very volatile market, where part of the people only uses the product for a few weeks (even MMO's nowadays).

 

1.3 million subs is ok, because that should be a solid enough subscribersbase to pay development teams and extend the game. If they do it right, the game wil grow.

 

So, I don't think Bioware/EA will have a problem with these numbers right now.

[Unruhe]

Well, let's see here, let's use the MMO hailed as the one that puts out the most content as comparison, shall we? Rift:

 

Let's see, RIFT launched:

 

Without an LFG tool

Without open-world PvP (PvP rifts were almost 8 months later)

Without server transfers

Without an endgame, only one raid (Tor launched with 2)

With only one storyline for all classes

With 6 hour queues

...

So far, TOR's doing better.

 

Except this isn't March 1, 2011, when Rift released. Rift has since successfully aped many, if not all, of the major features of WoW.

 

So there's WoW, the MMO "king" in terms of subs, that stole most of its best parts from other MMOs and then added a few things in on its own, and there's Rift, which is now a very strong contender in terms of form and function but relegated to a small playerbase due to a weak launch that it will never recover from, and there's TOR.

 

They all cost the same 14.99$ a month right now and right now TOR is the inferior product of the three.

 

That's the problem. TOR was pushed out the door before the game even worked on a technical level, let alone quality of content and play experience issues being hammered out. That's something you just don't recover from. I think, as of 1.2, TOR is a really solid, fun game, but multitudes of potential subscribers will never experience it because they were burned by a craptastic, pay-to-beta Christmas-rush launch.

Edited May 8, 2012 by Unruhe

[ZaRree]

Some info to those who are to lazy to search them self

all info I have found so far, if someone cares:rolleyes:

 

 

Let me provide you with an update on Star Wars:

 

Through the end of the quarter, approximately 2.4 million units have sold through. In our last

call we indicated that we had 1.7 million active subscribers, and as of the end of April we now

have 1.3 million, with a substantial portion of the decrease due to casual and trial players

cycling out of the subscriber base, driving up the overall percentage of paying subscribers.

We have already launched a number of initiatives designed to grow subscriptions.

 

The initial responses have been positive and we are encouraged by the gaming community’s reaction.

In summary, we delivered an extraordinary launch of a solidly profitable long-term franchise,

which contributed to both our gross and operating margin improvements in fiscal 12. We expect

this title will further expand our margins in fiscal 13 as we get the full year benefit of subscription

revenue.

 

Let us give you two additional points of perspective as it relates to our current subscriber base

and its impact on our fiscal 13 guidance. First, the current number of active subscribers, 1.3

million, is very consistent with the original assumptions we made when we acquired BioWare in

2008. Second, while this franchise is very profitable, it only represents a mid-single digit

percent of our total profitability in fiscal 13.

 

 

 Star Wars: The Old Republic now has 1.3 million subscribers, with a much higher mix of

ongoing credit card consumers, but on a lower absolute number of subs. The service is

stable, profitable and we have strong plans to grow it in fiscal 13.

 

 The 143% growth in subscriptions, advertising and other revenue was driven by the

December launch of Star Wars: The Old Republic.

 

 Star Wars: The Old Republic was the most successful subscription MMO launch in history

and is now firmly established as the #2 MMO in the west. The service is extremely strong

on the operations level.

 

 Full game downloads were up 76% year-over-year. Origin contributed $48 million of nonGAAP revenue, fueled by Mass Effect 3, Star Wars: The Old Republic and revenue

generated from our third-party publishing relationships.

[johnyangelo]

Isn't 1.3 mil subs still second best result of MMO currently?

[Esquire]

Interesting note;

 

Dan Rubenfield basicly said LA and SOE was in utter panic when SWG was losing 10K subs per/month and the NGE was a DIRECT result of that loss. What would they have done with 100K per/month loss? (4 months in TOR loses 400K?)

 

So what's next? We all know that the free time was here to help with these numbers. The free time is up for most next month. There are some of the exact same developers that worked at SOE and gave us the ever-luvin NGE, even in lead positions at BW Austin.

 

Is it that time again, here, and now?

Edited May 8, 2012 by Esquire

[Tristal]

In that case you have no reason to disbelieve it, then.

 

Firstly I never said I disbelieved it I merely suggested that no one seem to have posted any numbers to support it and secondly I have plenty of reason to disbelieve it.

 

Just because I havn't read the Bible doesn't mean I have to believe in God.

[Sickith]

I think SWTOR is doing great, its hell alot better then other MMO's, other MMO's cannot even reach 400k subs!

 

1.3 Million subs?! SWTOR isnt dead!

 

If the devs was able to pull out of there hat, sooner rather then later, no more decline and it will go up and beyond.

 

1. Server Merges - This is extremely important, because we all know their are dead realms, people will unsub just because of this, because they cannot play the game at its full intent!

 

2. Rated Warzones - For the PVP communities, give them something to play for instead of just gear and valor grinding.

 

3. Group Finder - For the PVE communities and coming in 1.3

 

I think these 3 items will dramatically increase the games potential and bring back players rather the losing them.

 

I personally think that other things like chat bubbles, lagacy updates, more pve content / pvp features (warzones/world pvp) etc can wait till like 1.4 / 1.5 - because people cannot play the game in its current state (notably server populations).

[LilSaihah]

The numbers are alright. Higher than I expected. Good for them.

 

That doesn't mean they shouldn't merge servers, however. Improving the play experience should still be priority number one, and low population is a huge detriment to that.