Is RE messed up AGAIN?

[lightSaberAddiCt]

It appears to me that after the last patch, RE has been messed up again. Ever since that patch, my chance at a new schematic has been terrible. A item that says it has a 20% chance to be reverse engineered, and it takes over 28 of them to get a blue?

 

Before the latest patch, it seemed to be working pretty well. I have 400 cybertech, so it isn't an issue of REing a schematic that is above me.

 

Has anyone else noticed this?

[Liquidzero]

Try getting a vibro knife. I RE'd dozens, maybe hundreds and didn't get a single one. I finally just gave up.

[GalacticKegger]

I have a 400 synthweaver & have found it to be pretty hit or miss. I can RE 20 items and not get a thing, then the next day I'll get 3 recipes in 10 tries. The Δ must be pretty wide.

[lightSaberAddiCt]

Then my question is, what exactly did they do to fix RE besides adding the little sentence telling the percent chance (which is TOTALLY whacked, considering that if it states that you have a 20% chance of success then within 5-10 items you should have at least 1 new schematic).

 

This is what is so aggravating to me, especially when it comes to that unusual egg. We crafters break our butts, and our banks to RE good gear, and it is a chance in the wind to get a new schematic, but some camper can time spawns of a egg and make 400k.

[Theronlas]

I have a 400 synthweaver & have found it to be pretty hit or miss. I can RE 20 items and not get a thing, then the next day I'll get 3 recipes in 10 tries. The Δ must be pretty wide.

 

Sounds pretty random to me streaks are to be expected with a RNG based system.

 

If you think there is a problem, start collecting stats yourself (note down whenever you RE and the result). You need large numbers (thousands at least) to get a meaningful answer here.

Edited April 26, 2012 by Theronlas

[Qoojo]

Try getting a vibro knife. I RE'd dozens, maybe hundreds and didn't get a single one. I finally just gave up.

 

I was told in guild chat that you can't get RE vibro knives for blue recipes.

[HeavensAgent]

Then my question is, what exactly did they do to fix RE besides adding the little sentence telling the percent chance (which is TOTALLY whacked, considering that if it states that you have a 20% chance of success then within 5-10 items you should have at least 1 new schematic).

This is not true. You always have a one-in-five chance of getting a schematic, regardless of how many time you reverse engineer an item. Successive attempts do not alter these odds in any way. This DOES NOT mean, in any way, shape, or form, that you should have at least one success every five attempts.

 

20% seems fairly accurate to me. I don't know if this is changed from the previous chance or not, but it does appear to conform to my own successes.

[Jestunhi]

This is not true. You always have a one-in-five chance of getting a schematic, regardless of how many time you reverse engineer an item. Successive attempts do not alter these odds in any way. This DOES NOT mean, in any way, shape, or form, that you should have at least one success every five attempts.

 

20% seems fairly accurate to me. I don't know if this is changed from the previous chance or not, but it does appear to conform to my own successes.

 

This.

 

Each reverse engineer is a unique event. You don't have 20% chance for the first, 40% chance for the second, etc.

 

It's like tossing a coin, just because it's heads one time doesn;t mean it will be tails the next to give you a perfect 50/50 ratio. The coin doesn't remember that it was heads and land accordingly.

 

That's not how it works, chance and ratio are not directly related like that.

[SoonerJBD]

This is called the Gambler's Fallacy. Each RE has a certain percentage chance to get a schematic. The results of previous RE's do not factor in. So if you have RE'd 9 items with a 10 percent chance of getting a schematic, you still only have a 10 percent chance on the 10th RE.

 

When you start dealing with large sample sizes, the numbers will even out. But in general, people tend to remember more when they got unlucky versus the one time they got their schematic on the first or second try.

[SoonerJBD]

And for what it's worth, I have been using RE with great success ever since 1.2.

[Drakkip]

Then my question is, what exactly did they do to fix RE besides adding the little sentence telling the percent chance (which is TOTALLY whacked, considering that if it states that you have a 20% chance of success then within 5-10 items you should have at least 1 new schematic).

 

This is what is so aggravating to me, especially when it comes to that unusual egg. We crafters break our butts, and our banks to RE good gear, and it is a chance in the wind to get a new schematic, but some camper can time spawns of a egg and make 400k.

 

Who knows what the programmer responsible for it was drinking that night There are often things that get broken after a patch that have nothing to do with what they say they are patching, it's hard to say. For example I noticed that comp quest xp is now about 50% what it was before the patch. I don't recall seeing a message about that in the patch notes. I wouldn't be surprised if during the process that the crafting RE's were messed up.

[Goretzu]

It appears to me that after the last patch, RE has been messed up again. Ever since that patch, my chance at a new schematic has been terrible. A item that says it has a 20% chance to be reverse engineered, and it takes over 28 of them to get a blue?

 

Before the latest patch, it seemed to be working pretty well. I have 400 cybertech, so it isn't an issue of REing a schematic that is above me.

 

Has anyone else noticed this?

 

Yeah I think it is.

 

Either the chance isn't what is stated or the RNG is borked (again).

[Zjabin]

I was told in guild chat that you can't get RE vibro knives for blue recipes.

I can confirm that now (after 1.2) it's possible.

[NinjaApacHe]

Ahhhh, so it wasn't me unlucky, they messed everything up again.... OMG there are plenty of good developers without a job because of crisis: HIRE THEM!!!!!

[Rabrac]

Sometimes you may go through 10-15 times without getting anything but you can also get 2-3 in a row. So far it seems to work fine for me and i get the schematics much faster than before. I would go as far as say way too far.

[OddballEasyEight]

Some people have no real understanding of the concept of probability and percentages.

 

Like someone pointed out earlier. You can RE something that has a 20% chance to give a schematic 1000 times without getting a schematic.

That doesnt mean its broken, it only means you were very very unlucky.

 

20% does not guarantee that every 5th time gives you a scematic. Nor does it guarantee that you'll get at least one in 100 tries.

It just means that there is a 20% chance each time you RE. No more, no less.

 

You could also get a schematic each time you RE. Its just chance.

 

if you add up all RE attempts made by all the players using RE on that particular item, it will average out at 20%. Doesnt mean that everyone gets it about 1 out of 5 times... some might only get one 1 out of 50 times, and others might get it every other time....

 

EDIT: if this is all too hard for you to understand, go roll a dice 60 times, write down the numbers you get and then check if you got each number 10 times... statistically you should, but ill promise you that you wont. Because each number has a 1 in 6 chance of showing up... still doesnt mean it will show up every 6th time.

Edited April 26, 2012 by OddballEasyEight

[Goretzu]

Some people have no real understanding of the concept of probability and percentages.

 

Like someone pointed out earlier. You can RE something that has a 20% chance to give a schematic 1000 times without getting a schematic.

That doesnt mean its broken, it only means you were very very unlucky.

 

You can.

 

However the overwhelming likelihood if something like that actually happens is that something is borked (especailly when you're talking about an artifical system that tries to replicate "randomness").

 

You can jump out of a plane flying at 10,000 feet without an means to slow or stop your fall, and survive more or less unharmed, I wouldn't try it though. Just because it can happen doesn't mean it is likely too.

Edited April 26, 2012 by Goretzu

[OddballEasyEight]

You can.

 

However the overwhelming likelihood if something like that actually happens is that something is borked (especailly when you're talking about an artifical system that tries to replicate "randomness").

 

You can jump out of a plane flying at 10,000 feet without an means to slow or stop your fall, and survive more or less unharmed, I wouldn't try it though. Just because it can happen doesn't mean it is likely too.

 

Of course, but the OP didnt RE something 1000 times now did he? He tried 28 times... 28 times is very possible...

[Goretzu]

EDIT: if this is all too hard for you to understand, go roll a dice 60 times, write down the numbers you get and then check if you got each number 10 times... statistically you should, but ill promise you that you wont. Because each number has a 1 in 6 chance of showing up... still doesnt mean it will show up every 6th time.

 

But it's not a dice, is it.

 

It's a RNG program.

 

There's not a lot that can go "wrong" with a dice (unless you mess with it to bias it), but there's any awful lot that can go wrong in SWTOR with reverse engineering. It can be the "%" values are wrong. It can be something in the RNG. It can be something else entirely.

[Goretzu]

Of course, but the OP didnt RE something 1000 times now did he? He tried 28 times... 28 times is very possible...

 

Which just makes it less likely it's not something borked with the system, not that it cannot be the system.

 

Plus when you talk about A person it's one thing, but the more people it's happening too the longer the odds.

 

In many MMORPG they've been ways to cheat the supposed RNG, never mind ways for it to break.

 

Now that doesn't mean it is broken, of course.

[OddballEasyEight]

Which just makes it less likely it's not something borked with the system, not that it cannot be the system.

 

Plus when you talk about A person it's one thing, but the more people it's happening too the longer the odds.

 

In many MMORPG they've been ways to cheat the supposed RNG, never mind ways for it to break.

 

Now that doesn't mean it is broken, of course.

 

Yes, but the OP claims that it IS broken simply because he tried 28 times before he got his schematic that had a 20% drop chance...

Im simply telling him that it proves nothing.

[Mikesglory]

I'm pretty sure probability of this level is primary school, not higher education.

 

As has been said multiple times. 20% does not mean YOU WILL GET an item within 5 tries (or even 10, 15, 20 etc).

 

Yes if you do more times YOU HAVE MORE OF A CHANCE OF GETTING A PROC OUT OF ALL, but each individual chance is still only 20%.

 

For example if I make 5 attempts.

The chance I get 1 or more procs is:

(Chance of 0) = .8*.8*.8*.8*.8* = 0.327

1- 0.327 = 0.673

 

Or a 67.3% chance of all 5 attempts that I will get 1 or more procs IN THE TOTAL (each individual is still only 20% chance). This is only just over a 1 in 2 chance that you will actually get 1 or more procs in this 5 attempts.

 

Now in 10 attempts:

Chance of 1 or more procs is:

1- (Chance of 0) = 1- (.8)^10 = 1- 0.107 = 0.893

 

So there is actually OVER A 10% CHANCE that in 10 attempts you STILL will not get a single proc (which is actually quite a high chance).

 

As you can see even with 20% chance individually per attempt, there is still a very viable chance even in high numbers of repetitions that you will receive no proc.

Edited April 26, 2012 by Ellvaan
Quoted removed content

[NinjaApacHe]

I do believe you might need some higher education my friend.

a percentage chance does not guarantee something happening regularly.

If something has a 20% chance of happening, it should (by your logic) happen every fifth time.

This is incorrect. Each time it can happen, it has a 20% chance of happening... but each time also has an 80% chance of not happening.

 

As an old D100 roleplayer, i have learnt the value of not expecting something to happen with any sort of regularity just because it statistically should based on its percentage value.

 

EDIT: Added a video thats kinda interesting if you like to theorise about chance and probability:

 

OMG, are you serious? It can not happen for 10 times, but, it cannot happen for 28 times. If not, it is not a 20% probability of success. Is that difficult to understand? My mara has a 30% crit chance and almost every 3 hits it crits: am I lucky or it is working as intended? BAH.....

[NinjaApacHe]

I'm pretty sure probability of this level is primary school, not higher education.

 

As has been said multiple times. 20% does not mean YOU WILL GET an item within 5 tries (or even 10, 15, 20 etc).

 

Yes if you do more times YOU HAVE MORE OF A CHANCE OF GETTING A PROC OUT OF ALL, but each individual chance is still only 20%.

 

For example if I make 5 attempts.

The chance I get 1 or more procs is:

(Chance of 0) = .8*.8*.8*.8*.8* = 0.327

1- 0.327 = 0.673

 

Or a 67.3% chance of all 5 attempts that I will get 1 or more procs IN THE TOTAL (each individual is still only 20% chance). This is only just over a 1 in 2 chance that you will actually get 1 or more procs in this 5 attempts.

 

Now in 10 attempts:

Chance of 1 or more procs is:

1- (Chance of 0) = 1- (.8)^10 = 1- 0.107 = 0.893

 

So there is actually OVER A 10% CHANCE that in 10 attempts you STILL will not get a single proc (which is actually quite a high chance).

 

As you can see even with 20% chance individually per attempt, there is still a very viable chance even in high numbers of repetitions that you will receive no proc.

 

My old teacher would say: how many arms stolen to agriculture......

[Dasgruberg]

Ahahahahaah, you made me laugh so bad. A percentage means, matematically, the probability that something happens. If it does not happen for 1000 times IT MEANS that the probability is not 20%. Maybe you need some school.....

 

Nice to see the arrogant one being wrong for a chance. PROBABILITY is just that, a chance to get it, and not a guarantee that youll get it. Jesus christ almighty , swing and a miss bro