New updated sub numbers (Official)

[AcerLerxt]

people can quote flat sub numbers all they want.

 

The game doesn't pass the eyeball test. It's painfully easy to log in and see fewer people playing fewer hours. Guild rosters are decimated, and it's not an isolated thing. Even on a high pop server like Jung Ma, we knew the top echelon of PvP players, and nearly all of them have quit or are playing drastically less time.

 

I accept that we're not the majority of MMO players, and that an MMO would be foolish to cater only to us. Unlike a lot of others, I couldn't care less if TOR was casual friendly. I don't care if they can easily get gear, finish operations, or solo outdoor heroics. Make the game fun for them-- it's no harm to me.

 

All that matters to me and the people I play with is that the game has something for us-- some kind of engaging, competitive play. It's non-existant in PvP, and we're playing less and less or cancelling outright because of that. (My sub is up in 4 days.)

 

As bad as PvP is, I'm glad I'm not a competitive raider-- I think those guys have it even worse. Operations are simplistic and ridiculously easy as far as mechanics-- the only challenge is overcoming rampant bugs.

 

So yeah, believe what you want, or just ask around different guilds to see how many are growing or even staying stable. With the exception of zerg invite guilds, I haven't seen any that haven't had rosters decline noticeably, if not significantly or even critically.

[Tiam]

My subscription expire around 18th next month, i have not been on much lately. Considering joining my guild in guildwars 2 if a branch of the guild opens there.

 

For someone who enjoy PvP TOR just doesn't deliver, its a great game in many aspects but for me the PvP endgame is hollow.

 

There no real purpose in the PvP not impact outside being a minigame death match sport for gear with a few objectives in a instanced pvp. There no real core reasons for people to join together in larger pvp groups to achieve something.

 

Until i see pvp in a bit bigger scope than just some instanced gear grinding minigame sport im not sure if ill continue, but i wish the people who satisfied with the game as it is all the best, its just not the type of game for me in its current state

 

Same here, my sub expires in a few days. The pvp in this game is just a complete joke, I knew coming in it probably wouldn't be so good with people coming from Warhammer-Mythic to do it.

I too wish those that still are playing the best of luck and hope they enjoy it though. Just wasn't my type of game. My first game was UO, then DAOC, and a long list of mmos after that. GW2 and Planetside 2 are shaping up to be more of what I'm looking for in a game. Pvp is my main focus. I have 0 interest in raiding in pve like I did in WoW for years, I don't want a second job again. I want some pvp fun again

[Tiam]

people can quote flat sub numbers all they want.

 

The game doesn't pass the eyeball test. It's painfully easy to log in and see fewer people playing fewer hours. Guild rosters are decimated, and it's not an isolated thing. Even on a high pop server like Jung Ma, we knew the top echelon of PvP players, and nearly all of them have quit or are playing drastically less time.

 

I accept that we're not the majority of MMO players, and that an MMO would be foolish to cater only to us. Unlike a lot of others, I couldn't care less if TOR was casual friendly. I don't care if they can easily get gear, finish operations, or solo outdoor heroics. Make the game fun for them-- it's no harm to me.

 

All that matters to me and the people I play with is that the game has something for us-- some kind of engaging, competitive play. It's non-existant in PvP, and we're playing less and less or cancelling outright because of that. (My sub is up in 4 days.)

 

As bad as PvP is, I'm glad I'm not a competitive raider-- I think those guys have it even worse. Operations are simplistic and ridiculously easy as far as mechanics-- the only challenge is overcoming rampant bugs.

 

So yeah, believe what you want, or just ask around different guilds to see how many are growing or even staying stable. With the exception of zerg invite guilds, I haven't seen any that haven't had rosters decline noticeably, if not significantly or even critically.

 

I was on Jung Ma too. My whole guild have all unsubbed now. We are a pvp guild though and SWTOR just couldn't bring it for us.

[Flyceratops]

The game doesn't pass the eyeball test. It's painfully easy to log in and see fewer people playing fewer hours. Guild rosters are decimated, and it's not an isolated thing. Even on a high pop server like Jung Ma, we knew the top echelon of PvP players, and nearly all of them have quit or are playing drastically less time.

The 'eyeball test' shows anecdotal evidence from a single server - it doesn't say a single thing about worldwide subscriptions or player population.

[Touchbass]

The 'eyeball test' shows anecdotal evidence from a single server - it doesn't say a single thing about worldwide subscriptions or player population.

 

If you read his points without blindly ingoring them you'd see he made some good points. Having your top PvPers leave in droves isn't a good thing. Also he's mentioning reports that others keep repeating over and over again. My guilds population is dropping dramatically and we have to recruit again, we shouldn't be having do it this often and it's throwing the chemistry of our guild off.

Edited March 14, 2012 by Touchbass

[tyranusdarec]

Who do you think you are coming into this thread on these forums and being not only reasonable, but level-headed to boot! What manner of devil are you?

 

I applaud your post. I would only add the churn in any new MMO is usually pretty exaggerated due to the sheer numbers involved in a large release like SWTOR.

 

Nevertheless, I find a morbid fascination in reading the ludicrous ranting that appear to be a regular feature of the SWTOR forums. Fortunately I am aware that it is tiny fraction of the player base behaving in this borderline psychotic manner.

 

I find morbid fascination in the rants on both sides of the fence as well. To me that is the true success of a MMO. If it wasnt any good the fanboys wouldnt exist and then complainers wouldnt have anyone to rail against.

 

Tyr

[Genocidalx]

Same here, my sub expires in a few days. The pvp in this game is just a complete joke, I knew coming in it probably wouldn't be so good with people coming from Warhammer-Mythic to do it.

 

Wait, are you trying to suggest that Mythic doesn't know how to do PvP? You do know that they created the MMO with the still-gold-standard for PvP experience bar none with DAoC, right?

 

Anyone who knows anything knows this. If there's anything Mythic knows, it's PvP and they do it better than the competition.

[Sarfux]

Wait, are you trying to suggest that Mythic doesn't know how to do PvP? You do know that they created the MMO with the still-gold-standard for PvP experience bar none with DAoC, right?

 

Anyone who knows anything knows this. If there's anything Mythic knows, it's PvP and they do it better than the competition.

 

no..no..you don't understand..

 

people these days want bots for pvp...they just want to be able to say I PWNED YOU without having real skill to back it up. They screw up in pvp and matches..and they do what when they are mad because they can't find it in their minds to blame it on themselves? BLAME IT ON THE GAME! BAM!

[WhiskyJax]

I recently re-sub to laugh at random people on these forums. The disappointment, hostility and anguish is enough to use up a few minutes of my time each day while I do my morning torrent check, webcomic check etc.

 

 

So there we have it. We officially have people that sub to this game for no other reason but to grief the players and make the forums look like garbage

[owenthorn]

lol, they still lost, remember over 2 million sold, now they claim up to 1.7 million subs

[Harower]

So there we have it. We officially have people that sub to this game for no other reason but to grief the players and make the forums look like garbage

 

oh no no no, you do a good enough job of that by yourselves. I simply enjoy the fallout of crushed dreams as I observe more and more come to there senses. Fuelling some self void? perhaps

 

Not lending aid when I can not claim objectionable deniability of state of mind, could be considered a negative influence by proxy. Call me a connoisseur of the perverse.

[WhiskyJax]

lol, they still lost, remember over 2 million sold, now they claim up to 1.7 million subs

 

OMG only an 85% retention rate something unheard of in mmorpgs... totally fail!

[owenthorn]

OMG only an 85% retention rate something unheard of in mmorpgs... totally fail!

 

your logic is fail, wow has lost 2 million subs, but still has over 10.5 million, your retention rate is meaningless, if this wasn't Star wars, it would NEVER have sold as many or kept as many, it is ONLY the IP that they have what they have

Edited March 15, 2012 by owenthorn

[Invictos]

people can quote flat sub numbers all they want.

 

The game doesn't pass the eyeball test.

 

Eyeballs tend to be unreliable. Our brains simply aren't wired to track large-scale statistical trends intuitively. On the contrary, we're wired to seek patterns whether they exist or not, which is why you'll often see complaints about random number generators, but you'll rarely see those complaints substantiated. (And, as if on cue, this complaint shows up in our very own forum .)

 

That said, you may be right about the situation on your particular server. It may also be true that there are too many servers. I'd buy that. Hell, I'll buy your complaints about the state of SWTOR PvP in general; you certainly seem to invested in that part of the game, so you probably have a better handle on it than many of us do.

 

But like it or not, the albeit imprecise subscriber number we've gotten from EA carries more weight than any collection of anecdotes on the forum. The real question isn't whether the number is accurate or whether EA is lying -- because even if you don't accept the number at face value, it's still more credible than anything else we have. The question is at what point the number will stabilize over the long term. Opinions on that can reasonably differ, but some of the people here (not necessarily you) look a little silly proclaiming certain doom in a thread that discusses the unambiguous success of SWTOR so far.

 

(And I say all of that as someone who's been critical of the game in the past.)

Edited March 15, 2012 by Invictos

[Tservo]

OMG only an 85% retention rate something unheard of in mmorpgs... totally fail!

 

It's not 1.7 either, and it sure as hell isn't 85%. CEO's own words can confirm that.

[Akirator]

It's not 1.7 either, and it sure as hell isn't 85%. CEO's own words can confirm that.

 

Oh, hello again.

 

Not sure, where you get the idea that the CEO says there are NOT 1.7M. He states in no uncertain terms that there are currently 1.7M recurring subscriptions and that is a vast majority of the active subscribers in this game.

 

"We're two months into the launch, a lot more to go, but 1.7 million, vast

majority now, are recurring subscribers."

[Knewt]

Oh, hello again.

 

Not sure, where you get the idea that the CEO says there are NOT 1.7M. He states in no uncertain terms that there are currently 1.7M recurring subscriptions and that is a vast majority of the active subscribers in this game.

 

"We're two months into the launch, a lot more to go, but 1.7 million, vast

majority now, are recurring subscribers."

I believe he's referring to the 85% retention rate. Since EA/BW sold 2 million units by the beginning of February and had 1.7 million subscribers, they had an initial retention rate of 85%.

 

However, since they are holding steady at 1.7 million for the last month, they are only breaking even. Further, they said that most of those subscribers are not in the free month. That suggests sales are dropping extremely fast since new sales would be int he free month.

 

That is not good news for a MMO trying to expand its base. Sales are stagnating and the three month subscriptions are coming due this month. Even if they retain 85% of the three month subs, the overall subscription numbers will probably fall since they are not selling new copies. There is a reason they are giving away free weekends. They need new people to try the game and get hooked on the early story lines.

[Akirator]

I believe he's referring to the 85% retention rate. Since EA/BW sold 2 million units by the beginning of February and had 1.7 million subscribers, they had an initial retention rate of 85%.

 

However, since they are holding steady at 1.7 million for the last month, they are only breaking even. Further, they said that most of those subscribers are not in the free month. That suggests sales are dropping extremely fast since new sales would be int he free month.

 

That is not good news for a MMO trying to expand its base. Sales are stagnating and the three month subscriptions are coming due this month. Even if they retain 85% of the three month subs, the overall subscription numbers will probably fall since they are not selling new copies. There is a reason they are giving away free weekends. They need new people to try the game and get hooked on the early story lines.

 

Yea, it's not an 85% anymore, even at the earnings call they said over 2 million but never said how much over. Add in what they've sold since then and it's definitely under 85% now.

 

But Tservo has been in numerous threads saying that the 1.7M number is false because the CEO even says so, and that's what I was referring to.

[Touchbass]

The fact that activity is on the decline with sales peaking spell major issues. The marketplace is too competitive for people to wait months for a transfer or server merger from a low population server/faction imbalance. People are splitting their time between Rift/WoW and Swtor and not just playing the new MMORPG that came out.

 

Someone mentioned that the eyeball test isn't reliable, I think to the contrary it is very uselful if used properly. People could tell WAR and AoC where in serious trouble with the eyeball test but fanbois were in disbelief till the axe fell. Is this game in trouble? Hell no, great subscription base, just people need to stop being biodrones and get Bioware to admit there are too many servers so they consolidate them. This game is good, but it's not good enough to wait around months for issues to be fixed, not in this market.

Edited March 15, 2012 by Touchbass

[Harower]

April 19

[Tservo]

Yea, it's not an 85% anymore, even at the earnings call they said over 2 million but never said how much over. Add in what they've sold since then and it's definitely under 85% now.

 

But Tservo has been in numerous threads saying that the 1.7M number is false because the CEO even says so, and that's what I was referring to.

 

I'm saying the "active" or "recurring subscribers" at 1.7M is false because it is. And no one knows what "vast majority" is because a vast majority to him could be anything, but it's certainly not 1.7 by his own words.

 

The very vague talk about numbers, coupled with this games, uh, sub-optimal gaming experience, really doesn't inspire one to think the numbers are all that good.

[Invictos]

Someone mentioned that the eyeball test isn't reliable, I think to the contrary it is very uselful if used properly. People could tell WAR and AoC where in serious trouble with the eyeball test but fanbois were in disbelief till the axe fell.

 

I'm not saying that your eyes are worthless. I'm saying that anecdotes are less reliable than the words of the CEO, who presumably has hard data. In any case, the examples you cite (if I understand you correctly) don't validate anecdotal evidence; they demonstrate that one group's (negative) anecdotes turned out to be better than another group's (fanboyish) anecdotes. Someone was bound to be right.

 

Maybe I missed something huge; it's certainly possible given that I never touched AoC or WAR -- but as far as I know, WoW is the only Western MMO that has ever posted numbers well north of 1 million. If you're saying that the AoC/WAR producers announced ridiculously high numbers (like 1.7 million) just prior to their collapse, then I stand corrected.

 

Again, none of the above means you're wrong about what you've personally seen. It's entirely possible that your server is dying. FWIW, mine appears to be growing, but I don't pay much attention because the game performs so poorly in crowded areas that I'm content to treat SWTOR basically as a single-player game. That's not a sunshine-and-rainbows viewpoint, is it? I'm just impressed by the game's apparent success thus far (having played another MMO, City of Heroes, which survived for more than seven years on anywhere from 100-200 thousand subscribers). I'm hopeful that with brisk business, SWTOR will improve. YMMV.

Edited March 15, 2012 by Invictos

[Touchbass]

War and AoC didn't have the initial numbers (i think WAR had just over a 1 million but don't quote me on that) but they also didn't have the kind of budget and established fan base that SWTOR has. My concenrs are that the gaming experience is so annoying difficult for some people that it bothers me that people are aggorant and that people should suck it up. The game should shed 15-20 servers off and give free transfers and offer a strong LFD tool. It's no surprise that without those aforementioned, the amount of people gaining versus losing appears to be at a balance which is not a good sign this early into an MMORPG cycle.

 

There are several things we can look at to see whether the game is doing healthy or not. The light/heavy ratio is massive, no game before really gave us these kind of numbers, I think WoW's where overall and not time sensitive. Then of course there is the common conscious that the world feels empty and alone, which goes along with the notion of the population being too spread out, etc.

 

I'm very interesting in the next sub numbers that come out, it's unfortunate we can't get isolated numbers like NA or what not but we work with what we got. Personally I'm thinking 1.8million with the Asian launch, only a modest gain.

[Norumaniac]

Who cares about the numbers.

 

Just be honest about yourself "is your server dying?".

[Akirator]

I'm saying the "active" or "recurring subscribers" at 1.7M is false because it is. And no one knows what "vast majority" is because a vast majority to him could be anything, but it's certainly not 1.7 by his own words.

 

The very vague talk about numbers, coupled with this games, uh, sub-optimal gaming experience, really doesn't inspire one to think the numbers are all that good.

 

I understand reading can be hard sometimes, and I apologize if English isn't your first language. But saying that they currently, as of the end of February, have 1.7M recurring subscriptions is pretty cut and dry.

 

And yes we don't know the total number of active* subscriptions because he only stated that 1.7M is the vast majority. It could be 1.8M or it could be 2.2M, we have no idea. But the 1.7M is stated by him as fact.

 

 

*recurring and active subscriptions ARE NOT the same thing.