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This game is TWO MONTHS old.


Citywok

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You cannot judge the game by the number of box sales or subscriptions. You judge it by the profit it makes.

 

Now, $300m to make we're told.

 

2 million box sales @avg $50 = 100,000,000. Now give away the royalties which was mentioned somewhere @30% leaves circa 66m.

 

Now, take the subscriptions, say $15 and pay the 30% royalty = $10 profit per sub x we'll say 1.5m subs = 15m pm, then take away overheads, salaries etc. Don't forget to pay the investors..

 

How many months to go into profit? Assuming the sub base stay at 1.5m which I doubt, it ever will.

 

Rudementary figures assumed.

 

Given those figures, they cannot break even after year 1. Bear in mind, within the first year, you have GW2 coming out and Tera launching in April. Regardless of how you feel about those games, they are going to whittle the sub-base down. Now add in that Diablo3 will most likely launch this year and that alone is going take huge bite in tot he sub base.

 

If anything there is unrealistic, please let me know.

 

MMOs, well basically any business venture, are not going to be profitable after TWO MONTHS. That's unrealistic. The subscriber base isn't going to stay stagnant at 1.5 mil (even though its closer to 2.0), watch it's going to go up the farther this game goes along.

GW2 is not going to put a huge dent in the SWTOR subscriber base because it caters to a different audience. GW1 was not wildly successful and didn't kill WOW.

 

Do you know how many times I've seen people say "Well when XXX game comes out, YYY is done!"? Age of Conan was supposed to be a killer. Tabula Rasa was supposed to be amazing. Dungeons and Dragons was supposed to attract everyone. Vanguard was supposed to revolutionize MMOs. Guess what? Most of them failed, and the ones that didn't have a fairly small subscriber base. SWTOR is not in danger from these games coming out. If a huge ip like Harry Potter came out with an MMO you might have a point.

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Great thread totally agree with OP, played many MMO's myself & been there for the launches, this seriously is head & shoulders above the others! I played WoW for many years & I'm certainly not going to slag it off as I had massive amounts of fun on that game!

 

I can't understand the people who simply can't like more than 1 mmo! But for me swtor is heading to be the best mmo EVER!!! 6 months down the line when everything is completly ironed out & running smooth a huge amount of people will agree, even the haters will know it but won't have the balls to admit it ;)

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Oh, please do continue...the litany of non-game-breaking things that has ragequitters and pantwetters screeching like bloody harpies on the forums hasn't been regurgitated nearly enough.

 

Well obviously a lot of other people feel the same way then, which, proves my point nicely. Thank you.

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Digital sales incur less overhead costs. Pricepoint was $60, $80 and $120ish. Factor in Asia. Those figures aren't nearly close to reality. This game will be plenty profitable.

 

We also have no idea on the day-to-day costs of running everything, paying everyone, etc. It's all just partially-informed speculation.

Edited by Degarmo
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The argument is; for a $300m game, one would expect it to have the basic features like guild banks, proper lfg tools, moldable UI.. need i go on?

 

I don't know of any game that had guild banks, LFG tools, and modable UI at launch. Guess what features like these get added in when theres a need for them. The SWTOR development team couldn't stop what they were doing every time a new feature came out in another game.

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Here is what a new game's patch schedule should look like from a top notch development team.

 

http://forums.riftgame.com/official-rift-news/patch-notes/index3.html

 

Did you miss the QQ posts about SWTOR having multiple downtimes for patches and hotfixes each week? PAY ATTENTION! Get your QQ right, man. Geez...next thing you know, you'll be QQing about multiple downtimes per week in a thread about there not being enough patching and hotfixing.

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I'm sorry... In your pro-gamer opinion, Sw:ToR is 'real' gaming? Can I have some of whatever you're smoking?

 

Actually it is... It is not a cookie cutter wow clone like most MMOs that launch. Swtor has added some very unique stuff to their game mechanics. They are continuing to add content, and their player base is growing. You asked for stats, I provided stats.. then you just jumble on about how you do not think the playerbase will hold.

 

Wow was just re-hashed content that dragged on soo bad it was hard to log in because it was the same crap on every toon. Now, did wow come out with some improvements.. yes they did. I liked the area phasing when you quested, that was interesting.

 

Swtor however has done something for me personally that no other game ever has (That includes swg, wow, eve, rom, coh / cov, dc universe, vanguard, and the list goes on), they actually make you part of the game instead of just playing the game. The cinematics add flavor and the content has been great.

 

So in thinking out of the box, swtor takes the others out hands down. Again, as I stated, if you don't like it... go away.

Edited by Aedales
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No, but they should be less buggy than this game is. And many of them are.

 

 

Right now, my expectation is that it will be basically the same, they'll have fixed some of the bugs hopefully.

 

 

 

If I buy a new car, I expect it to come with air conditioning. If your excuse is that it's a new model this year and has only existed for 2 months... that's not going to fly.

 

Do What? Should this person even be talking? I don't see how his "facts" are working out. I thought I was buying a computer game, not a car.... or did I miss something? Please, someone help explain this to me, I'm so confused right now, I may need to go lay down.

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I don't know of any game that had guild banks, LFG tools, and modable UI at launch. Guess what features like these get added in when theres a need for them. The SWTOR development team couldn't stop what they were doing every time a new feature came out in another game.

 

Yes, but supposedlky, they were supposed to wait to release this for another 3 years so that they could eventually (magically) catch up and release a game that had everythign that all the other games kept adding during the SWTOR development years AND have all the extra stuff like VO and and 8 stories etc. that SWTOR has that one of the others have. Magic game development pixie dust is so underrated.

Edited by Blotter
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Did you miss the QQ posts about SWTOR having multiple downtimes for patches and hotfixes each week? PAY ATTENTION! Get your QQ right, man. Geez...next thing you know, you'll be QQing about multiple downtimes per week in a thread about there not being enough patching and hotfixing.

 

Pay attention to the dates. They were not weekly, they were daily and sometimes twice in one day. That's how important it is to squash bugs in a new game.

 

I'm not a tor hater and hope it does well, but at the pace it's going right now it will never have a good reputation.

Edited by Merlinr
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MMOs, well basically any business venture, are not going to be profitable after TWO MONTHS. That's unrealistic. The subscriber base isn't going to stay stagnant at 1.5 mil (even though its closer to 2.0), watch it's going to go up the farther this game goes along.

GW2 is not going to put a huge dent in the SWTOR subscriber base because it caters to a different audience. GW1 was not wildly successful and didn't kill WOW.

 

Do you know how many times I've seen people say "Well when XXX game comes out, YYY is done!"? Age of Conan was supposed to be a killer. Tabula Rasa was supposed to be amazing. Dungeons and Dragons was supposed to attract everyone. Vanguard was supposed to revolutionize MMOs. Guess what? Most of them failed, and the ones that didn't have a fairly small subscriber base. SWTOR is not in danger from these games coming out. If a huge ip like Harry Potter came out with an MMO you might have a point.

 

You may be correct...

 

Vanguard did revolutionize MMOs, but was led by a very bad PM which threw the whole thing into Chaos.

 

SWToR is always in danger. The day you believe different is the day you fail. Sorry, in business that's the way it is. Just imagine the numbers if half the sub-base leave to what-ever game..

 

I'm not saying you are wrong, I'm saying you're wearing rose-tinted glasses.

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They already promised one. Patience or tantrum: choose.

 

They promised alot of things.

 

The problem is, combatlog isnt some new, cool feature some MMO invented half a year ago, one would expect a basic, decade old feature to actually BE in the game on launch.

 

Yes you might defend it that you dont need or want it, but alot of people want it, even if for the simple reason of "what the heck just happened and why did I just die?"

 

And that is not the only thing. Only a handful of graphic options, chat bubbles etc. They are on the right track with sort of customizable UI, but that sort of thing should have been on launch, especially when beta players asked for things like that half a year before launch.

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I'm not saying WoW had more features than SWTOR, because it didn't, and yes, it was quite boring game at the time, I played it and only reason I stayed with it at the time was amazing guild and fun we had together.

 

That doesn't change the fact, that SWTOR is missing some features even old game like WoW had it in its infancy - combatlog, chat bubbles, other stuff, you know, that sort of thing.

 

You know, I'll take the features SWTOR introduced over the features WOW gives. Especially the feeling that I'm actually playing a game up to cap, rather than sitting in a chat room occasionally hitting a button to kill a mob while I grind to cap so I can sit in a chat room to occasionally hit a button to kill a mob for +morestats.

 

I'm sure it's not so different at cap, but I'm also sure that at some point they'll take some time away from other things to put in floating chat bubbles and combat logs.

 

As for the folks griping about content.. AYFKM? One class mission storyline complete with bugs and arguments about how it sucks has more content involved than the entire run of WOW's development. Here, I will sum up 7 years of World of Warcraft:

 

Pre BC, Part 1: Black Rock Spire and Tarren Mill vs. Southshore.

 

Pre BC, Part 2: Molten Core and Capture the Flag.

 

Pre BC, Part 3: Alterac Valley and Cross Server BG's. Some 20 man raid instance with trolls.

 

BC Part 1: MEDIVH

 

BC Part 2: BAD ELF

 

BC Part 3: DEMON

 

BC Part 4: BAD ELF AGAIN and Isle of QQ

 

Wrath of the Lich King Part 1: DEATH KNIGHTS

 

Wrath of the Lich King Part 2: DEATH KNIGHTS

 

Wrath of the Lich King Part 3: SNOW AND DEATH KNIGHTS

 

Wrath of the Lich King Part 4: SNOW AND DEATH KNIGHTS AND KISSING FROGS

 

Cataclysm: I gave up again by this point so no clue other than a dragon that's on fire that's more powerful than other dragons that breathe fire because he was punished by being set on fire or something.

 

Yeah I'll take Mako telling me she's not just a pretty sidekick over that nonsense again.

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You know, I'll take the features SWTOR introduced over the features WOW gives. Especially the feeling that I'm actually playing a game up to cap, rather than sitting in a chat room occasionally hitting a button to kill a mob while I grind to cap so I can sit in a chat room to occasionally hit a button to kill a mob for +morestats.

 

I'm sure it's not so different at cap, but I'm also sure that at some point they'll take some time away from other things to put in floating chat bubbles and combat logs.

 

As for the folks griping about content.. AYFKM? One class mission storyline complete with bugs and arguments about how it sucks has more content involved than the entire run of WOW's development. Here, I will sum up 7 years of World of Warcraft:

 

Pre BC, Part 1: Black Rock Spire and Tarren Mill vs. Southshore.

 

Pre BC, Part 2: Molten Core and Capture the Flag.

 

Pre BC, Part 3: Alterac Valley and Cross Server BG's. Some 20 man raid instance with trolls.

 

BC Part 1: MEDIVH

 

BC Part 2: BAD ELF

 

BC Part 3: DEMON

 

BC Part 4: BAD ELF AGAIN and Isle of QQ

 

Wrath of the Lich King Part 1: DEATH KNIGHTS

 

Wrath of the Lich King Part 2: DEATH KNIGHTS

 

Wrath of the Lich King Part 3: SNOW AND DEATH KNIGHTS

 

Wrath of the Lich King Part 4: SNOW AND DEATH KNIGHTS AND KISSING FROGS

 

Cataclysm: I gave up again by this point so no clue other than a dragon that's on fire that's more powerful than other dragons that breathe fire because he was punished by being set on fire or something.

 

Yeah I'll take Mako telling me she's not just a pretty sidekick over that nonsense again.

 

I really lol'd at this. Good post! But you forgot to add that with every single major content added to wow, they re-did talents and you had to re-learn your toon all over again

Edited by Aedales
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You may be correct...

 

Vanguard did revolutionize MMOs, but was led by a very bad PM which threw the whole thing into Chaos.

 

SWToR is always in danger. The day you believe different is the day you fail. Sorry, in business that's the way it is. Just imagine the numbers if half the sub-base leave to what-ever game..

 

I'm not saying you are wrong, I'm saying you're wearing rose-tinted glasses.

 

Vanguard was fun at first but then it just became unplayable for me! SWTOR is in less danger than any MMO on the market besides WOW, IMO. I don't believe half the player base is going to leave for any upcoming game (and I'll probably be proven right, judging by all the dead MMOs that were supposed to be godly). You know what, I love Star Wars and probably wouldn't be defending this game as much if it wasn't but you guys will see that the game will get better in the upcoming months (not that it's bad right now, I think its amazing) and the subs will keep going up up and up.

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Actually it is... It is not a cookie cutter wow clone like most MMOs that launch. [/QUote]

It is exactly like Wow and a myriad of other games.

 

Swtor has added some very unique stuff to their game mechanics.

 

Like? Companions? Which are useless after L50? What else?

 

They are continuing to add content, and their play base is growing. You asked for stats, I provided stats.. then you just jumble on about how you do not think the playerbase will hold.

 

You did not provide links, unless I missed something? Yes they're adding content. Where does it say their player base is growing?

 

Wow was just re-hashed content that dragged on soo bad it was hard to log in because it was the same crap on every toon.

 

Which re-hashed content? Prior to WoW, EQ was the biggest selling MMO unto 2005 (You can wiki that for factual data) And WoW did not rheas EQ content, so please explain that remarkable analysis.

 

Swtor however has done something for me personally that no other game ever has (That includes swg, wow, eve, rom, coh / cov, dc universe, vanguard, and the list goes on), they actually make you part of the game instead of just playing the game. The cinematics add flavor and the content has been great.

 

If cinema tics is all it takes to make a game the best you ever played, well I can't argue with that. From someone who has spent 9 years raiding, I think it's a total flop.

 

So in thinking out of the box, swtor takes the others out hands down. Again, as I stated, if you don't like it... go away.

 

I would suggest you get back into the box then.

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They promised alot of things.

 

The problem is, combatlog isnt some new, cool feature some MMO invented half a year ago, one would expect a basic, decade old feature to actually BE in the game on launch.

 

Yes you might defend it that you dont need or want it, but alot of people want it, even if for the simple reason of "what the heck just happened and why did I just die?"

 

And that is not the only thing. Only a handful of graphic options, chat bubbles etc. They are on the right track with sort of customizable UI, but that sort of thing should have been on launch, especially when beta players asked for things like that half a year before launch.

 

A combat log is not some absolutely necessary hugely required omg I can't play without it feature that every game needs. I'm getting along just fine without one. L2P?

 

"what the heck just happened and why did I just die?"

 

Who cares? You get to call a freekin medical driod and pop back up as if by magic and try again! And if you're wipping your raids, then yes, L2P. What, you need a combat log so you can whine about numbers or some random glitch that popped up here or there? Who cares? Super Mario Brothers didn't have combat logs (haha). You died cuz you jumped wrong and blew it and it was noticeable. Same thing here. Every single time I've blown it on a pull while solo-ing or in another situation resulting in my toon pushing up daisies, I've been able to pop back up, retry it in a different manner and go "oh, duh, forgot to use a little CC last time haha...must be getting lazy" or some such thing.

 

Know what happens with combat logs...almost INSTANTLY? This: a giant increase in "ZOMG NERF [iNSERT CLASS]...HE BBQ'D MY FACE OFF IN TEH PVPs...LOOKIT TEH NUMBERZ!!!!!" As far as I'm concerned, that is the A#1 reason people want them, so they can start the nerfwars with "backup."

Edited by Blotter
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Vanguard was fun at first but then it just became unplayable for me! SWTOR is in less danger than any MMO on the market besides WOW, IMO. I don't believe half the player base is going to leave for any upcoming game (and I'll probably be proven right, judging by all the dead MMOs that were supposed to be godly). You know what, I love Star Wars and probably wouldn't be defending this game as much if it wasn't but you guys will see that the game will get better in the upcoming months (not that it's bad right now, I think its amazing) and the subs will keep going up up and up.

 

Still no proof of that going up and up figure :)

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I don't know how many times one has to reiterate the same thing.

 

The argument about SWTOR coming out in 2011 and WoW coming out in 2004 so SWTOR should have all those features blah blah blah is garbage. Completely garbage.

 

You need to actually stop and think about development for a minute.

 

 

When they were planning out SWTOR, I'd say it was either during Vanilla WoW, or Burning Crusade at the latest.

 

They had a bucket list of things to implement, and began work on it.

 

Development for this time of game takes YEARS TO DO.

 

So yes, while they were developing this game WoW was coming out with new and interesting features, as were other MMOS. That's great, but if they stopped and kept adding every new thing in to this game during that time, it would never come out. It would constantly add development time, and the game would end up like duke nukem forever.

 

 

Instead, they did what they set out to do with intentions of adding features post launch. THIS IS HOW MMOS WORK.

 

 

Yes, WoW came out in 2004, and SWTOR did learn a lot from that believe it or not, but you CAN'T realistically add in every feature WoW has added WHILE YOUR GAME IS IN DEVELOPMENT and expect it to fit budget or come out on time.

 

Anyone who uses that dull lifeless argument that oh well WoW came out in 2004 so SWTOR SHOULD HAVE ALL THOSE FEATURES BECAUSE ITS 2012!!! obviously doesn't have any idea of how the real world works, nor have they ever held a job that actually does anything of use, besides feeding fat people, or washing their cars or whatever.

 

 

Seriously, drop that argument, it only makes you look ignorant and stupid.

 

 

Going to leave this here.

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Still no proof of that going up and up figure :)

 

You will see. 1.7 out of 2.0 million is an absolutely amazing retention rate. I read somewhere that the subs got about 2 million for the first time recently, though I forget where. This game isn't going anywhere for a Loooooooooooooooong time. The subs will increase.

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You know, I'll take the features SWTOR introduced over the features WOW gives. Especially the feeling that I'm actually playing a game up to cap, rather than sitting in a chat room occasionally hitting a button to kill a mob while I grind to cap so I can sit in a chat room to occasionally hit a button to kill a mob for +morestats.

 

I'm sure it's not so different at cap, but I'm also sure that at some point they'll take some time away from other things to put in floating chat bubbles and combat logs.

 

As for the folks griping about content.. AYFKM? One class mission storyline complete with bugs and arguments about how it sucks has more content involved than the entire run of WOW's development. Here, I will sum up 7 years of World of Warcraft:

 

Pre BC, Part 1: Black Rock Spire and Tarren Mill vs. Southshore.

 

Pre BC, Part 2: Molten Core and Capture the Flag.

 

Pre BC, Part 3: Alterac Valley and Cross Server BG's. Some 20 man raid instance with trolls.

 

BC Part 1: MEDIVH

 

BC Part 2: BAD ELF

 

BC Part 3: DEMON

 

BC Part 4: BAD ELF AGAIN and Isle of QQ

 

Wrath of the Lich King Part 1: DEATH KNIGHTS

 

Wrath of the Lich King Part 2: DEATH KNIGHTS

 

Wrath of the Lich King Part 3: SNOW AND DEATH KNIGHTS

 

Wrath of the Lich King Part 4: SNOW AND DEATH KNIGHTS AND KISSING FROGS

 

Cataclysm: I gave up again by this point so no clue other than a dragon that's on fire that's more powerful than other dragons that breathe fire because he was punished by being set on fire or something.

 

Yeah I'll take Mako telling me she's not just a pretty sidekick over that nonsense again.

 

 

too bad you didnt try Cata leveling, because, while not being at the same level as SWTOR class stories, the zone stories are just as amazing as SWTOR planet stories, if you actually spent the time to read the text and listen to few convos between NPCs, especially up to 35-40 level, after that, you get to the neutral cities and the story somewhat takes the back seat. But there were only a few moments in SWTOR as good as Horde fleet invading the Twilight Highlands.

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If any of you have been around launches of other MMOs (which I doubt many people here have), you come to realize that they aren't going to be perfect at launch. An MMO is a living, breathing game that evolves over time. Every single feature you want or have seen in other games will often be added in at a later date once they fix the most pressing post-launch issues. Let's look at the launch of WOW.

 

World of Warcraft

WOW has had SEVEN years to add content. SWTOR has had two months. Can you imagine how much better this game will be even a year from now? But I digress.

Does anyone remember the awful lag issues WOW had at launch? I sure as hell do. Many servers were crashing for a long period of time over and over. Lag, loot lag, falling through the world, etc. Queue times were often an hour or more. The game was often unplayable at times until WOW had time to fix hardware issues. SWTOR has actually done better than WOW in this regard. WOW actually had to give some people free days because the lag was so bad and the servers were so unstable.

I think WOW had one or two raids? There weren't any battlesgrounds. There weren't a lot of things.

 

(blah blah blah WOW was released in 2004 SWTOR should have all the features it does blah blah blah ) No, it shouldn't SWTOR is a unique game that will add it's own content.

 

I personally love this game. I sincerely enjoy playing it. Those who don't are more likely to be vocal about it on the forums. I never see any of this "I hate SWTOR" chat in game.

Launch is a difficult time for ANY MMO, and SWTOR has actually done better than just about any MMO I've seen before.

 

This game isn't WOW and it never will be. Don't expect it to have all the features you love from WOW 2 MONTHS after launch. Give this game time to work out the few bugs there are and add a bit of content over the upcoming months and this will be the best MMO there is. Bottom line, MMOs take time to develop and add content and this is one of the smoothest MMO launches I've been around.

 

SWTOR has been in the making for 5 years. WoW revolutionised the MMO genre and brought it mainstream, you could argue that it launched with problem and ill agree yes it did. However, blizzard realised very quickly that the same everquest theme wasn't going to cut it, and that if they didn't make things happen quickly it was dead. So no, wow didnt launch with battlegrounds, it invented them as we now know them, most of the features we see where developed by blizzard, or taken from other games and made better. Hell i don't even like wow.

Also, you don't see any "I HATE SWTOR" chat in game because hardly anyone is in game, fleet has 180 people in, and each planet ranges from 10 - 60. Out of the 2 million pre sales, this is not a huge number (this is prime time, luka sena) obviously this amount is spread over all servers and not everyone is on at the same time. But out of 2 million people, it still seems we're missing an awful lot.

As far raids, upper black rock spire and onyxia if im not mistaken, not to mention all the level 60 instances, which were new, not rip off hardmodes where the only added thign is an enrage timer.

 

I like swtor, i do, however biowares ignoring its community on such a huge scale it isn't even funny. There are so many issues that have existed from beta (I was a closed beta tester, and played 4 builds) and plenty of features removed (alot of custom armour, there was certainly more then than there is now). Point is, being new gives you a pardon for bugs, it does not give you a pardon for lack of end game content, and considering i have nothing to do, nothing to explore, and nothing to gain outside of raid hours, this is not forgiveable. For a game 5 years in the making, I would have expected:

3 same faction warzones (huttball, arena, CTF/TDM type)

2 or 3 cross faction (voidstar, alderaan, a battle for corelia)

EVERY fp in HM, + 5 new ones.

3 operations, world bosses worth killing, that actually take a bit of prep not just turning up and *shrugging* through them laughing when someone pulls aggro because is makes no odds.

A full pvp system, with ranks, and more than 3 sets of gear (1 of which is worse than what you hit 50 in, or atleast as was the case with both my 50s)

 

So yes, the game is 2 months old, and we're nowhere near what it should have come with, like it or not, this game has to compete against WoW and rift. Tera and GW2 are coming out this year aswell, project titan we can assume will arrive next year, if the game isnt in a suitable state for tera/GW2 you can kiss it good bye and welcome free2play. It needs to be completely epic for Titans release because lets face it, when bllizzard decide they want the market to themselves, they take it. Which is why they have shrugged off every attempt at competition between wow and anything else. It is also the reason why after countless years you compare this game, to wow, and not a newer modern MMO, because all the new ones have made the same mistakes as this one has, and not as badly. If this wasn't star wars, we'd be looking at another all point bulletin failure by now.

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too bad you didnt try Cata leveling, because, while not being at the same level as SWTOR class stories, the zone stories are just as amazing as SWTOR planet stories, if you actually spent the time to read the text and listen to few convos between NPCs, especially up to 35-40 level, after that, you get to the neutral cities and the story somewhat takes the back seat. But there were only a few moments in SWTOR as good as Horde fleet invading the Twilight Highlands.

 

I did Cata leveling and I disagree. Sure it was kinda neat, but I didn't get near the feeling of epicness (sorry) that I did as the first time I picked up a lightsaber or fighting sith lords.

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