daemian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 (edited) haha pwned. nice Just so I'm clear on this... if the analysts don't know what they're talking about, then your premise in the OP is wrong, EA is right, and SWTOR is doing well. But if they do know what they're talking about, and they're right, then SWTOR is doing well. Edited February 3, 2012 by daemian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeDudeIsanub Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The game is doing fine? TIME TO COMPLAIN ON THE FORUMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tortoises Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 (edited) It doesn't even matter if its true or not to 98% of the people posting in this thread or in the other threads. None of you are investors or market analysts, It doesn't mean anything to people like you or myself other than either A: You want this game to fail because you want your favorite MMO to succeed or B: You want to have more people playing the same game as you do to reinforce your own idea that it is good, but also because you are afraid something that you like might fail, and so you are incessantly worrying about it. Edited February 3, 2012 by Tortoises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grometsc Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Of course its going to be high... I mean to even play in your free month you had to add a subscription....Give the game 3 months then see how many still around. When each zone is a ghost town, and its the same people in the wz's...I can only imagine 1 thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HavenAE Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 EA's 1.7 million includes those still in their free month. The GI.biz article is talking about conversions to paid subscriptions only, which it clearly states. "Doug Creutz from Cowen estimated estimated the figure of paying players to be between 1.3 million and 1.5 million, with 200,000 to 400,000 still enjoying their first month's free trial. " http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-02-02-star-wars-the-old-republic-paid-subs-estimated-at-1-3m That puts the estimate squarely at 1.7 million. Q: Are these 1.7 [million] subscribers paying? A: Active subscribers means anyone paying or in their trial period. http://www.darthhater.com/articles/swtor-news/19915-electronic-arts-q3-fy12-earnings-call?cookieTest=1 Uh huh but they also state more than half of that number are past their first free month. Whatever more than half means. But I can probably assure you more than half doesn't mean 51%, probably more along the lines of 75-80% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodypull Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 (edited) The they're still wrong. EA's 1.7 million was specifically stated to not include those still within the first free month. Guys, This is twisting the truth. The numbers are well under 1m, probably 400-600k paying subs as of Feb 1. You need to know there are a finite number of people willing to both pay to buy a game and also pay a subscription to continue playing the game. WOW is bleeding numbers, and SWTOR is as well. The real question, in NA/EU ... is where are the people going or planning on going? Some of the answers are in the MOBA ganre like League of Legends, DOTA 2, some are waiting for dibalo 3, Skyrim and Kingdom of Amular pre-orders are very strong. Still others are are waiting on MOP and GW2 while others are exploring the F2P market. With this games IP, I would assume it will hold 350-450k subs for the long haul .. far from WOW numbers, but decent nonetheless. They do need to merge many servers though, and as soon as they make the next quarterly report, they most likely will. Think when that happens and they add server forums (less servers will make this a reality ...) that sense of community will be in place and the game will be a decent MMO for those staying. Edited February 3, 2012 by Bodypull Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VanorDM Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I mean to even play in your free month you had to add a subscription. Which you could then cancel... So anyone paying past the free month either does it because they like the game well enough to pay, or they couldn't be bothered to cancel their subscription. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HavenAE Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 75% conversion rate into paying subs...not bad. Not bad, it's amazing actually. That kind of a retention rate in an MMO is pretty ******ed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daemian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Uh huh but they also state more than half of that number are past their first free month. Whatever more than half means. But I can probably assure you more than half doesn't mean 51%, probably more along the lines of 75-80% Yes, that's possible, but the OP is still wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VanorDM Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 This is twisting the truth. The numbers are well under 1m, probably 400-600k paying subs as of Feb 1. It would be highly illegal for them to post those numbers to shareholders if they weren't accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jett-Rinn Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Guys, This is twisting the truth. The numbers are well under 1m, probably 400-600k paying subs as of Feb 1. You need to know there is a finite numbers of people willing to both pay to buy a game and also pay a subscription to continue playing the game. WOW is bleeding numbers, and SWTOR is as well. The real question, in NA/EU ... is where are the people going or planning on going. Some of the answers are MOBA like League of Legends,DOTA 2, some are waiting for dibalo 3, Skyrim and Kingdom of Amular pre-orders are very strong. Still others are are waiting on MOP and GW2 while others are exploring the F20 market. With this games IP I would assume it will hold 350-450k subs for the long haul .. far from WOW numbers, but decent nonetheless. They do need to merge many servers though, and as soon as they make the next quarterly report, the most likely will. Think when that happens and they add server forums (less servers will make this a reality ...) that sense of community will be in place and the game will be a decent MMO for those staying. Very insightful now so you won't look foolish...please provide us with your empirical evidence. Yeah....kinda what I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kDerp Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 (edited) Serious gamers Funniest thing I have heard all day. I remember my sophomore year in high school... Edited February 3, 2012 by kDerp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theborch Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Guys, This is twisting the truth. The numbers are well under 1m, probably 400-600k paying subs as of Feb 1. You need to know there is a finite numbers of people willing to both pay to buy a game and also pay a subscription to continue playing the game. WOW is bleeding numbers, and SWTOR is as well. The real question, in NA/EU ... is where are the people going or planning on going. Some of the answers are MOBA like League of Legends,DOTA 2, some are waiting for dibalo 3, Skyrim and Kingdom of Amular pre-orders are very strong. Still others are are waiting on MOP and GW2 while others are exploring the F20 market. With this games IP I would assume it will hold 350-450k subs for the long haul .. far from WOW numbers, but decent nonetheless. They do need to merge many servers though, and as soon as they make the next quarterly report, the most likely will. Think when that happens and they add server forums (less servers will make this a reality ...) that sense of community will be in place and the game will be a decent MMO for those staying. Lot's of probably and speculation in there. How do you get that from 1.3 to 1.7 down to 400k-600k? that is a pretty big leap coming from someone who probably is just pulling numbers out of their ***. 60% of statistics are made up on the spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tortoises Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Guys, This is twisting the truth. The numbers are well under 1m, probably 400-600k paying subs as of Feb 1. You need to know there is a finite numbers of people willing to both pay to buy a game and also pay a subscription to continue playing the game. WOW is bleeding numbers, and SWTOR is as well. The real question, in NA/EU ... is where are the people going or planning on going. Some of the answers are MOBA like League of Legends,DOTA 2, some are waiting for dibalo 3, Skyrim and Kingdom of Amular pre-orders are very strong. Still others are are waiting on MOP and GW2 while others are exploring the F20 market. With this games IP I would assume it will hold 350-450k subs for the long haul .. far from WOW numbers, but decent nonetheless. They do need to merge many servers though, and as soon as they make the next quarterly report, the most likely will. Think when that happens and they add server forums (less servers will make this a reality ...) that sense of community will be in place and the game will be a decent MMO for those staying. That is a very very bleak outlook and I have to lol. Next quarter they will most likely boast twice the number of subs they had this time around, my own original prediction for this game is that 1 year after release it will have close to 6 million subscriptions. They are right on track to meet that goal, as long as they can aggressively attack these bugs and put out some major content patches, and add some graphical polish, coax Nvidia and AMD to put out some new Drivers with support for SWTOR etc.. then I think you are looking at another blockbuster MMO. Remember guys.. this is Science Fiction, WoW is Fantasy. There is room in the market for two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mezla Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Not bad, it's amazing actually. That kind of a retention rate in an MMO is pretty ******ed. Conversion rate for a WoW free trial was 10% during Wrath. I imagine it is much lower now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodypull Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Very insightful now so you won't look foolish...please provide us with your empirical evidence. Yeah....kinda what I thought. Sure, CaptialIQ.com Look under electronic arts, and there are a series of tabs to the left. Pull the 6 month revenue e projections, target projections and net (actual) figures. Under metrics, break down by line item (all the titles / projects ect are there.) After that, look at SWTOR Budget Subscriptions Sales Revenue Other And just run the metrics on excel (they have the excel work actually done as well, and a report you can print out or view in word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodypull Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 That is a very very bleak outlook and I have to lol. Next quarter they will most likely boast twice the number of subs they had this time around, my own original prediction for this game is that 1 year after release it will have close to 6 million subscriptions. They are right on track to meet that goal, as long as they can aggressively attack these bugs and put out some major content patches, and add some graphical polish, coax Nvidia and AMD to put out some new Drivers with support for SWTOR etc.. then I think you are looking at another blockbuster MMO. Remember guys.. this is Science Fiction, WoW is Fantasy. There is room in the market for two. I can tell you 6 million will never happen (not any MMO) every again outside of Blizzards next Gen. Also, The next successful MMO will come from 38 Studios and Blizzard respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tortoises Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I can tell you 6 million will never happen (not any MMO) every again outside of Blizzards next Gen. Also, The next successful MMO will come from 38 Studios and Blizzard respectively. Do you have any links or data to back up your claims? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theborch Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Sure, CaptialIQ.com Look under electronic arts, and there are a series of tabs to the left. Pull the 6 month revenue e projections, target projections and net (actual) figures. Under metrics, break down by line item (all the titles / projects ect are there.) After that, look at SWTOR Budget Subscriptions Sales Revenue Other And just run the metrics on excel (they have the excel work actually done as well, and a report you can print out or view in word. You send us to a website where we have to log in to do anything? meh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VanorDM Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 CaptialIQ.com So we should go off a 3rd party site that most of us have never heard of, over the stock holders report released by EA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theborch Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 So we should go off a 3rd party site that most of us have never heard of, over the stock holders report released by EA? YES! finally someone get its. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wepo Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 It is one thing to tell lies and a whole other story not to tell the entire truth. Surely they included everyone who is still in the 30 days trial as subscriber, to get that shiny number. That's what I'm thinking too. Yes Mr. hypothetical SEC investigator, active subscribers include those in the first 30 days since the subscription fee was obviously advertised and included as part of the box price. But really this whole debate is kind of silly. Either of the numbers are good and bode well for TOR for the foreseeable future, imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Retro- Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 So the game has a lot of people who actually like it and are still subbing, but the haters continue to cry and try and convince people this game is a failure. Funny how that works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blotter Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Guys, This is twisting the truth. The numbers are well under 1m, probably 400-600k paying subs as of Feb 1. You need to know there are a finite number of people willing to both pay to buy a game and also pay a subscription to continue playing the game. WOW is bleeding numbers, and SWTOR is as well. The real question, in NA/EU ... is where are the people going or planning on going? Some of the answers are in the MOBA ganre like League of Legends, DOTA 2, some are waiting for dibalo 3, Skyrim and Kingdom of Amular pre-orders are very strong. Still others are are waiting on MOP and GW2 while others are exploring the F2P market. With this games IP, I would assume it will hold 350-450k subs for the long haul .. far from WOW numbers, but decent nonetheless. They do need to merge many servers though, and as soon as they make the next quarterly report, they most likely will. Think when that happens and they add server forums (less servers will make this a reality ...) that sense of community will be in place and the game will be a decent MMO for those staying. What is so god awful hard to understgand about the investment analyst from Cowen stating that his (far more informed than yours) estimate is taht there are 1.3M or so paying subscriptions at this point? That would mean about 400K are still in their free period trying to decide (or have given their info and not had the monthly charges kick in yet). Even if you exclude the 400K and just focus on the 1.3M paying subscriptions in the first month, SWTOR has still set the new record and blown up every other MMO out there. Second, there's no evidence that SWTOR is "bleeding numbers." Anecdotal whining that "my server done gone ghost town" is not evidence. The closest we have is a statement to investors/stockholders that subscriptions keep coming in and player base is increasing...a statement that they CANNOT MAKE TO INVESTORS IF IT IS UNTRUE LEST THEY SUBJECT THEMSELVES TO CIVIL AND CRIMINAL PENALTIES AND LIABILITY> And stuff it people. I am actually an attorney. This isn't tinfoil hat daydreams here...federal law and civil tort liability would make it very very damaging and dangerous to just blatantly lie to investors like you're claiming. Get your heads out of the movies....this isn't Wall Street with Michael Douglas and not every company is Enron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blotter Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 "Capiq is the most reliable and trusted business intelligence service on the web at the moment" That's like braggning about being the smartest retard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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