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From a Goldman Analyst Perspective on SWTOR


Bodypull

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Funny I get paid to do the same thing he did, dissected his post point by point, and disagree.

 

Large corporations will continue to do what large corporations do. If you think that will change, you clearly are not aware of the real world.

 

If you would bet money that they would shut down a game generating profits to re-do it, since you are clearly more intelligent than everyone else on the forums, kindly point to any instance in financial history where this has been done.

 

Oh wait, every MMO relaunch has been either a re-tool to F2P or having the entire thing torn apart after the bankrupted assets have been bought out by a third party.

 

Plz. Learn2Troll.

 

Now this language i recognize :) I told earlier that OP doesnt sound like an analyst of the level he pretend he is, since i know those (PWHC for example, my friend worked there for - 7 years? those damned lifetime offerings). Other friends are among many CEO of one of the Russias largest and most innovate bank. I cant imagine any of them writing something like OP did.

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It doesn't really matter if he is a real analyst or not. He's making a good point as to why this game isn't worth investing in. Unlike most of you I actually read the whole post and most of what he wrote is spot on to what I felt when I quit 3-4 days ago.

 

The game isn't bad. It is quite alright. I especially liked the quests and not having to spend so much time to find the quest objectives, green doors etc if fine with me. I know some of you think that is bad, but from my point of view it was good.

 

However, the game doesn't feel like a next generation MMO to me. It feel like WoW with a facelift... but the doctor was a drunken sod with no skill. Sure, it looks better graphically than WoW, but the feel of the game isn't up to par with WoW. There is important stuff missing that should be in a new MMO and some things I wouldn't want to play without, like server forums in my case.

 

There were lots of bugs when WoW came out as well, but back then the "audience" didn't have great expectations, the game was ground breaking after all. Nowadays instead of putting up with it, I and probably lots of others, will quit instead. It is not worth my time to play a game that doesn't meet my expectations. Sure, some things can't be helped, but there are too many little things that annoy me like crazy with this game.

 

I sure hope you will like it better than I did. I gave it a chance atleast, leveled a commando to level 50 before I quit.

 

Reality with people playing this game.

 

I can't say minor and I can't say majority(COMMON SENSE) but people playing this game feels the same way you do.

 

Including me.

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He knows more than the proponents of the success of this game combined. I wouldn't be so dismissing.

 

He knows as much as anyone else that pays attention to the MMO world. All of the games he listed his "amazing" ability to predict they would fail are the same games just about everyone else knew would fail including myself and everyone else I game with. Just a super long-winded negative post. The game has been out for just over 2 weeks. Close the game down and re-open ? are you serious?

 

/shakeshead

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Now this language i recognize :) I told earlier that OP doesnt sound like an analyst of the level he pretend he is, since i know those (PWHC for example, my friend worked there for - 7 years? those damned lifetime offerings). Other friends are among many CEO of one of the Russias largest and most innovate bank. I cant imagine any of them writing something like OP did.

 

 

Problem is, why do your friends have to be like the op?

 

Sorry but one of the largest banks in Russia?

You come across like the op :)

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The more I analyze ( :cool: ) his post the more it occurs to me its one of the finest examples of concern trolling I have seen in quite some time.

 

Well played.

 

I disagree. A concern troll is believable and keeps things realistic. This guy has been figured out too early and too easily by too many people.

 

He played a role he couldn't sustain, shooting numbers no one in that role would shoot (4-5 millions subscribers for SWTOR? in what dream?), displayed utter arrogance when a decent concern troll would have been much less belligerant to bring sympathy to his case, and simply didn't keep touch on even a skewed example of reality.

 

He doubtlessly is a concern troll (paid or not, who knows), but not a good one.

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I disagree. A concern troll is believable and keeps things realistic. This guy has been figured out too early and too easily by too many people.

 

He played a role he couldn't sustain, shooting numbers no one in that role would shoot (4-5 millions subscribers for SWTOR? in what dream?), displayed utter arrogance when a decent concern troll would have been much less belligerant to bring sympathy to his case, and simply didn't keep touch on even a skewed example of reality.

 

He doubtlessly is a concern troll (paid or not, who knows), but not a good one.

 

I agree. It probably took him longer to write that post than it did for him to completely discredit himself after submitting it.

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His observations about the game may be worth considering but I assure you all, that is not the writing of a Goldman Analyst. Then again, what do I know - I am just a NFL star quarterback who was pushed though school due to my insane skills on the field. Meh, laugh at me all you want I don't care, because I write this to you from my yacht in the Mediterranean full of more women than 10 of you will get in just as many lifetimes... "companions" (Mako) not included.
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if he were a goldman analyst, he wouldn't have time to be level 50.

 

Except that it is ridiculously easy to get to 50 and you can get to 50 by now by only playing an hour a day if you got into EGA.

 

Anyways, nice read OP. I don't care if he is a real analyst or investor or not, doesn't detract from the facts he presented forth.

 

If the devs don't add more features and squash bugs the only people that will be around are the fanboys and star wars fans.

 

I mean, what kind of MMO makes 4 man flashpoints HARDER than an actual operation? Ridiculous. Flashpoints should be a stepping stone to operations, not the other way around.

 

Get with it, Bioware. The only reason why I still play is because a lot of my friends do but all I do is my PvP daily and I'm done. Even out of my friends and guildies a lot have seemed to have disappeared the past week or so.

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His observations about the game may be worth considering but I assure you all, that is not the writing of a Goldman Analyst. Then again, what do I know - I am just a NFL star quarterback who was pushed though school due to my insane skills on the field. Meh, laugh at me all you want I don't care, because I write this to you from my yacht in the Mediterranean full of more women than 10 of you will get in just as many lifetimes... "companions" (Mako) not included.

 

So I am guessing you are not Tebow?

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interesting post and good read, one thing that annoys me in it is that i would for sure advice my clients, in your place, to invest in swtor during production period because SW brand has guaranteed good sales = profit for investors. this is for sure investment under low risk - you are talking about investing money in game now when it is released and is under much higher risk of not achieving success on the market (competition, customer-check etc. etc.) which is well... quite obvious recommendation :)

 

interesting part is though about BW/EA/LA resources and capability to pull the wight of competition on MMO market - i would love to know on what you've based those estimations. because only thing to predict this one is on amount of weekly patch changes/fixes... not to be picky but compared to first week Rift patch notes SWTOR ones ware well... short ;) 1.0.2 didn't addressed many serious issues too. so this could be only thing to be worried about in case of SWTOR and admit that you might be right in here. still would like you to elaborate a bit more on this topic since this might be a very interesting read.

 

cheers.

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1) Freedom of speech has no bearing on this conversation whatsoever. In fact, it doesn't even exist on these forums.

 

2) An opinion can be factually and objectively wrong, which applies to the OP's.

 

Actually, some of the things he pointed out holds water.

 

He could be full of crap but that's not the point. What he's stating is that the game just like other MMORPG's that have come out and FAILED after WoW is going to happen to TOR. This to me is fact and opinion. The fact is, they all have failed. Will TOR fail? We don't know, it's just speculation. You don't need a college degree and fancy words.

 

On the real dawg, homies like me know and been in dis MMORPG know dat dis game is gonna finna fail jus like all dos games have failed. Ya dig?

 

So yea, leave the fancy talk to the books and professors. The truth is, the game is not headed in the right direction and it's starting off on the wrong first. It's all about first impressions and right now as you can read from many and many of the posts, nobody is happy.

 

Let's not assume this game will fail. I'm behind them 100% for success. Time will tell.

 

That would be my opinion and assumption. This is not fact. :)

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So I am guessing you are not Tebow?

 

 

 

No, but he's been on my ship. The whole holy man thing is a charade to get his name out there - he's just a rl troll and constantly laughs at people. It's somewhat like people who in game quote Bible verses to watch general, trade, or whatever go crazy. Anyway, we call him the grease man around here... and you don't wanna know why.

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interesting post and good read, one thing that annoys me in it is that i would for sure advice my clients, in your place, to invest in swtor during production period because SW brand has guaranteed good sales = profit for investors. this is for sure investment under low risk - you are talking about investing money in game now when it is released and is under much higher risk of not achieving success on the market (competition, customer-check etc. etc.) which is well... quite obvious recommendation :)

 

interesting part is though about BW/EA/LA resources and capability to pull the wight of competition on MMO market - i would love to know on what you've based those estimations. because only thing to predict this one is on amount of weekly patch changes/fixes... not to be picky but compared to first week Rift patch notes SWTOR ones ware well... short ;) 1.0.2 didn't addressed many serious issues too. so this could be only thing to be worried about in case of SWTOR and admit that you might be right in here. still would like you to elaborate a bit more on this topic since this might be a very interesting read.

 

cheers.

 

Meh eh.

 

From an investment standpoint, he says nothing about if his focus is short term profit seeking, mid-range diversification, or long-range security. He just says vague things about clients. What clients? Fortune 500 companies? Uncle Bubba looking for a place to invest his matress money?

 

I agree -- if you're gonna jump (short term only) on the MMO bandwagon, get in at the pre-launch to launch hype. Ride for 2 weeks, dump, short the stock with the inevitable backlash and 30-day drop in subs, then reinvest in 5 to 7 months at a nominal level and see where the stock goes, with auto-sell boundaries if it drops.

 

If he's doing long term he's on the money, but only because only idiots invest in a rapidly shifting and highly compettive technological market in teh long term.

 

I'm guessing his numbers are based on the old 2010 EA 10k where they listed out what they were putting into their MMO department and making minimal educated guesses, you can pull that together in a few hours by scoping a few job postings and doing average salaries, and from the credits you can figure rough team size. Knowing that after launch some of the team will get cut, you can come up with a half-way sorta accurate figure.

 

What you can't do -- no matter how hot of an analyst you are -- is model skillset and how much internal money EA is willing to pour into this thing. That's the worst part about his analysis, this idea EA would mortage it's soul and take on tens of millions in debt and then just drop the thing because some teens unsub on the forums.

 

Maybe he's shorting the stock?

Edited by LogicalPremise
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So the OP must clearly be on the Dark Side if he's from Goldman. Those *********** are evil. In fact, they're so brilliant at manipulating our government / economy I wouldn't be surprised if this was some sort of shill post to help his short option on EA (assuming they're public, I have no idea).

 

Sorry, I have no respect for anyone's opinion that works for Goldman. They are morally bankrupt.

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soooo, I take it that the other MMO makers have their Communications and Marketing folks out in droves before the 30day revoke of non-subscribed accounts happens?

 

yup, I think that is a lot of it.

 

Make account in last month, post drivel and long winded made up points and statistics, sounds like a thesis paper with technical writing to confuse people, fall back and hunker down and fan flames with no proof other than an 'I said so. prove me wrong'.

 

Sounds like a planned assault to me.

Edited by skinthinner
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Smartest most accurate post made to date. Period. Too all that disagree, you're simply not aware of the REAL WORLD around you. Either because you're too young (and ignorant) or because you believe in something that just doesn't make one bit of sense.

 

Arrogant nonsense - he provided no references and expected everyone to take him at his word. He can say whatever he wants about any company and we all swallow it? Never.

 

Until he can provide a list of references and clean up his writing style to a professional standard his opinion is just that. I'm tempted to forward his little "Professional Analyst" post over to Goldman Sachs and see if I hear anything back. I know the response already though - "Thanks for your email, we cannot verify the post's origin and this company does not endorse the author. The opinions presented are his/her own and not the opinions of this company." with perhaps a "Please consider the environment before printing this email" and a list of legalese about distributing said email.

 

I live in the real world of balance sheets, profit and loss and management accounting. I currently design and develop accounting software for the furniture industry, marketing/consumer relations isn't my strong point - but while marketing/consumer relations may affect sales it's the cold hard figures that matter. I suggest we wait until we see the half-yearly report from EA (unless they don't do that in America) - we'll then have some weight behind our arguments that don't depend on the unprofessional, unresearched opinions of a forum user who didn't even give his name.

 

This company will not fail if they have 500K subscribers, and will turn a profit for the company. I.E. It will provide an acceptable return on investment, making it worth continuing to invest in The Old Republic.

Edited by Dabih
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