Server population is dropping...

[Iusedtoplaywow]

You are wrong.

 

The servers have population caps that determine where their capacity level is at. So at launch a server may have had a population cap of 300 players. At 250 players the listing would read "Heavy".

 

The developers have stated in several places those caps have been raised. So now a server may have a cap of 600 players, and those same 250 players might show up as "Light".

 

So please, read my sig, do some research and learn the facts about how something works prior to posting one of these "QQ the sky is falling" threads. Thanks.

 

Whats that river in Egypt called again?

[Safiir]

Many many people feel the same way I do.

 

Of course many people feel the same way. I'm 100% certain there are more people that don't like this game than people that do like it. Just like there are more people that don't like wow than people that do like it. Same goes for (nearly) everything else in the world. It's too bad that you don't like the game and have wasted your time and money on it, but that's the risk you take whenever you make a purchase.

[mcfabulous]

That's the thing though, I haven't hit 50 with any toon because I was away for the holidays and then dabbled around a bit picking a character to go with first. Now, I only play a few days a week on that character because I'm levelling with another person and we both have other interests/commitments which take up time on other days. Most of the people in my guild are still leveling up their first 50 (and an alt or two), so I don't think it's all that uncommon for people to not be playing seven days a week. Obviously there will be people who pushed hard to level up and play every day, and there needs to be content for them, but I'm not sure what the ratio is of people who play daily vs. people who play more casually, really.

 

Personally I am enjoying the story quest, and I'm going to wait and see how I feel about endgame stuff when I get there before I make any long-term decisions about subscribing or investing my time. For now, it's sort of a co-op single player for me, with MMO crafting and instances added on, and I'm just making the most of that.

 

With this logic, and applying it to the original guy who made the remark.. This game is great, if you don't play it.

[Razyr]

Whats that river in Egypt called again?

 

The Nile? The Mendesian? There are quite a few.

 

Cute references to what you believe my emotional state to be doesn't change THE FACTS about how server population status works. So the people posting about how they know for certain (they do not) that populations are dropping can continue to live in whatever alternate fairytale land they choose to, I would rather hold discussions that pertain to the actual world we live in.

 

I know, it's a novel idea, but it actually becomes significant if you are looking for information that actually means something.

[Jett-Rinn]

I'll just leave this here

 

Millions of people playing (quote from James Ohlen)

 

Fastest Growing MMO EVER

 

 

[PenguinXI]

Whats that river in Egypt called again?

 

I giggled XD

 

Dont rely on a web interface to tell you what a servers populations is, thats easily manipulated by the powers that be. Log into the game and decide for yourself. I logged in 2 days ago and there was not a massive difference between that time and 3 weeks ago. Wait and see what happens in 6 months, I myself wish I had cancelled after the first month, but I decided to stick it out for a month. I just cannot be bothered to log into the game at the moment. The forum here is far more entertaining than a 200 Million dollar game.

[Nemmar]

How is it not my own opinion? I've played to 50 with multiple alts ranging from level 20-40, and I can tell you (in my opinion) this game is **** and wont be a giant in any way, shape, or form. It has the worst pvp I have ever seen and horrible end game is boring, repetitive, and yields unworthy rewards. Leveling is as engaging as your honeymoon then it becomes grueling and tiresome.

 

The game is nice for its single player value but beyond that its ridiculous how bad the game actually is. Many many people feel the same way I do.

 

Again, you're just saying the conclusion and not the basis. All you said is "the game doesnt wield good enough rewards". So, if the rewards were better you wouldnt think it would suck anymore? Wich other game offers better rewards in your opinion?

How does the PvP suck and how is the end game boring? Wich other game does it better in your opinion and why?

Every leveling process gets boring once you've done it once. In SWTOR you got different main stories for each class. Wich other game do you know that does this better?

 

I believe you have played the game, i just have doubts if you are able to articulate a properly justified opinion. And thus why i cast doubt on your opinion beeing truly yours.

Edited January 27, 2012 by Nemmar

[Illutian]

So, it's not really explaining much of anything.

 

Feels pretty empty, 'cept for Fleet. Right now we got 54 in here (Fleet) and should have ~120+ by tonight.

 

This also: http://www.torstatus.net/the-fatman/history/7d#!/the-fatman/trends/30d

 

Now the fact they increased server capacity explains away the "Full", but notice that "Heavy" is incrementally going down when looking at only the weekends, got a straight-edge out just to double check.

 

Really wish they had done pure-instancing (STO model) and not used a multi-zone-multi-server model. Then you don't have to merge or offer transfers. Players will just go to the instance that has the most people in it (until cap is reached).

 

The game's beginning to feel like Blasted Lands, Swamp of Sorrows, and the like....empty

[PjPablo]

I'll just leave this here

 

Millions of people playing (quote from James Ohlen)

 

Fastest Growing MMO EVER

 

 

 

I guess we will see come Feb 1 when EA realizes earnings.

 

In order to keep that 'fastest growing' title they will needs to grow subs sevenfold from launch to 90 day mark in order to match WOW. Once again I guess we will see.

[SWImara]

I'd definitely leave server merging etc concerns to the developers rather than forum theory-crafting about it. Populations are bound to drop off but I've seen no evidence of this on my server (regularly heavy load, hasn't been FULL since the limits were decreased). I've noticed some of my friends less, but well the game is no longer shiny and new, I certainly don't feel a need to be on all the time anymore so when work/g-f/school/family/social life calls I am totally comfortable not being on. Things certainly weren't expected to stay at release date (Holiday break + brand new) levels forever.

[Razyr]

Feels pretty empty, 'cept for Fleet. Right now we got 54 in here (Fleet) and should have ~120+ by tonight.

 

This also: http://www.torstatus.net/the-fatman/history/7d#!/the-fatman/trends/30d

 

Now the fact they increased server capacity explains away the "Full", but notice that "Heavy" is incrementally going down when looking at only the weekends, got a straight-edge out just to double check.

 

Really wish they had done pure-instancing (STO model) and not used a multi-zone-multi-server model. Then you don't have to merge or offer transfers. Players will just go to the instance that has the most people in it (until cap is reached).

 

The game's beginning to feel like Blasted Lands, Swamp of Sorrows, and the like....empty

 

 

I have another post on what people expect from zone populations, and you are right to compare the planets feeling like Warcraft zones, because that's what they are.

 

Anyway, the server caps were adjusted upwards as part of the solution to address the server queues we were getting during the first few weeks. Other steps were also taken, but raising the caps is what really changed things for us.

 

BioWare can't really win here. Low server caps show the servers as being packed full of players but give us queues to log in. Higher server caps let us get right in, but now people cry that the games population is dropping. People putting up websites that are misleading using tags like "Population Trends" without the full and accurate information to determine those trends doesn't help.

[Wizzrobe]

I'd definitely leave server merging etc concerns to the developers rather than forum theory-crafting about it. Populations are bound to drop off but I've seen no evidence of this on my server (regularly heavy load, hasn't been FULL since the limits were decreased). I've noticed some of my friends less, but well the game is no longer shiny and new, I certainly don't feel a need to be on all the time anymore so when work/g-f/school/family/social life calls I am totally comfortable not being on. Things certainly weren't expected to stay at release date (Holiday break + brand new) levels forever.

 

Some of us are not theory crafting! Our servers have an extremely low population and need to be merged.

 

I don't care about that tor status web site that everyone keeps posting, I just care that my server has 10-20 people in the fleet and around 225 people TOTAL at primetime. It's just not right, and BW should do something about it. (And not just my server, any other server with the same issue)

 

Tonight perhaps I will do some more census results and post them here, along with screenshot evidence if that is what it takes. In the meantime I invite anyone who thinks I am lying about this to log onto the Defenestrator and see for yourself. You don't even need to do one quest, just do a /who and look at the various level ranges (or type 'fleet' if you want to see how many people are there). Republic or Imperial, it doesn't even matter.

Edited January 27, 2012 by Wizzrobe

[Illutian]

I have another post on what people expect from zone populations, and you are right to compare the planets feeling like Warcraft zones, because that's what they are.

 

Anyway, the server caps were adjusted upwards as part of the solution to address the server queues we were getting during the first few weeks. Other steps were also taken, but raising the caps is what really changed things for us.

 

BioWare can't really win here. Low server caps show the servers as being packed full of players but give us queues to log in. Higher server caps let us get right in, but now people cry that the games population is dropping. People putting up websites that are misleading using tags like "Population Trends" without the full and accurate information to determine those trends doesn't help.

 

 

Well, I suppose they could put it like: Playing / Maximum Players; updated every 30min (staggered by 10min to prevent cluster f***). That way "Low", "Standard", "Heavy", "Full" are at least put into perspective. If this had been done before the cap increase people could see for a fact if the game was suffering population loss.

 

Plus, it would deter them from being ******s and changing the plateaus. I know some games that did that to make it look like more people were playing.

 

If anyone's not familiar with what I mean. Say:

 

250 = Light

500 = Standard

750 = Heavy

1000 = Full

 

They then skew it so

 

50 = Light

70 = Standard

100 = Heavy

1000 = Full

 

This is the primary reason they never tell you what the words relate to in numbers. And all games that have server status like SWTOR do this, and have since 'Server Status' history.

 

 

Still leaves the fact that some servers are in fact dead now. Either because people realized they rolled on the wrong server for [insert RP, PVE, PVP] and have since re-rolled on another.

 

In any case, I'll give it 5 more months, bring it to 6months total before I decide to cancel my sub or not; less if things go South quickly.

 

EDIT:

 

@Wizzrobe

 

That server doesn't exist in either the US or EU. Click on the english button if your using the non-english site.

Edited January 27, 2012 by Illutian

[Proto]

Seriously. Taking an example of nearly 8,400 user's playing behavior is a good enough sample of data to build a trend graph. This is based off Xfire's current usage of the game: http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/3169/xfirer.png

 

Going off that data we see that it went from 80,000 hours of logged playtime vs. 40,000 today meaning 50% dropped off the face of the Internet in 30 days. Now, if you take a look at a trend chart Torstatus.net has listed http://www.torstatus.net/shards/us/trends that takes into account the server load (unlike Xfire that shows actual players) we see that they directly tie into each other.

 

This tells me that in just 1 month the game has been dropped by hundreds of thousands of players and that within 60 days these 215 servers you see now will likely be shrunk down to 50 or less.

 

I'm someone that not only has been playing MMO's for the past 15 years but has seen this happen before. I saw this with AOC, I saw it with WAR, and I saw it with Rift. Every time it was the same telltale signs as the links shown above.

[Gazimoff]

Unsurprisingly, I've had someone posting the same links in comments on my blog and arguing the same thing. It's like they're trying to tell anyone that will listen that the game is doomed. And I shot him down, much like most of the comments already here (SWTOR players must be a smart bunch )

 

You cannot use a drop in activity to predict a drop in subscription numbers. A drop in activity can also be caused by:

 

• An end in holiday (SWTOR was released during a holiday period)
  
• An end to levelling activity (day 1 players are known to play intensely up to level cap then ease off)
  
• Completion of existing content and waiting for further content/patches to arrive
  
• Other real-life or non-game factors.
  

 

 

I'll ask the same questions here that I asked on my blog and didn't get a reply to:

 

• Do you have any links to peer reviewed studies, research journals, in-depth theses or other evidence of equal quality that prove a link from server activity to subscription numbers?
  
• Do you have any sources, from respected journalists known for fact checking and accuracy through to published analysts that agree with your estimations?
  
• Do you have any solid, reliable evidence direct from the publishers themselves that support your claims about other MMO games relating to first month sales and subscription numbers?
  

 

It's time to put up or shut up. Either show us something more than the same refuted links or Get The Heck Off these forums.

[Razyr]

Seriously. Taking an example of nearly 8,400 user's playing behavior is a good enough sample of data to build a trend graph. This is based off Xfire's current usage of the game: http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/3169/xfirer.png

 

Going off that data we see that it went from 80,000 hours of logged playtime vs. 40,000 today meaning 50% dropped off the face of the Internet in 30 days. Now, if you take a look at a trend chart Torstatus.net has listed http://www.torstatus.net/shards/us/trends that takes into account the server load (unlike Xfire that shows actual players) we see that they directly tie into each other.

 

This tells me that in just 1 month the game has been dropped by hundreds of thousands of players and that within 60 days these 215 servers you see now will likely be shrunk down to 50 or less.

 

I'm someone that not only has been playing MMO's for the past 15 years but has seen this happen before. I saw this with AOC, I saw it with WAR, and I saw it with Rift. Every time it was the same telltale signs as the links shown above.

 

I wanna play too! I have a chart that's just as relevant:

http://sithshadow.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/QQ.jpg

 

Enjoy.

[Jett-Rinn]

I guess we will see come Feb 1 when EA realizes earnings.

 

In order to keep that 'fastest growing' title they will needs to grow subs sevenfold from launch to 90 day mark in order to match WOW. Once again I guess we will see.

 

Sorry wrong....it was much later that WoW reached those numbers Nice misinformation though...also Bioware has already taken the fastest growing title from Blizzard they can't win it back....and according to Georg Zollers Google people are going to be very surprised when Feb 1st rolls around and the numbers are announced to the investors..he wouldn't say that unless they were high and growing.

Edited January 27, 2012 by Jett-Rinn

[PjPablo]

Sorry wrong....it was much later that it reached those numbers Nice misinformation though...also Bioware has already taken the fastest growing title from Blizzard they can't win back....and according to Georg Zollers Google people are going to be very surprised when Feb 1st rolls around and the numbers are announced to the investors..he wouldn't say that unless they were high and growing.

 

Approx 200k subs Day 1. 1.5 million come March. Feel free to do some research.

 

Edit: You own link shows that. LOL

Edited January 27, 2012 by PjPablo

[MillionsKNives]

Seriously. Taking an example of nearly 8,400 user's playing behavior is a good enough sample of data to build a trend graph. This is based off Xfire's current usage of the game: http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/3169/xfirer.png

 

Going off that data we see that it went from 80,000 hours of logged playtime vs. 40,000 today meaning 50% dropped off the face of the Internet in 30 days. Now, if you take a look at a trend chart Torstatus.net has listed http://www.torstatus.net/shards/us/trends that takes into account the server load (unlike Xfire that shows actual players) we see that they directly tie into each other.

 

This tells me that in just 1 month the game has been dropped by hundreds of thousands of players and that within 60 days these 215 servers you see now will likely be shrunk down to 50 or less.

 

I'm someone that not only has been playing MMO's for the past 15 years but has seen this happen before. I saw this with AOC, I saw it with WAR, and I saw it with Rift. Every time it was the same telltale signs as the links shown above.

 

You can't really gather any useful information from a single service like Xfire. It doesn't realistically represent the player base since only certain types of players would be using Xfire. It could be that half of the types of people who use Xfire just don't like the game while most other people do, and that their numbers represent 1% of the total swtor population. You need to have a truly random sampling in order to reliably show trends.

[Wizzrobe]

 

EDIT:

 

@Wizzrobe

 

That server doesn't exist in either the US or EU. Click on the english button if your using the non-english site.

 

Check again. Server name is 'The Defenestrator' and it is a US East Coast PvE server.

[Nighthawked]

You can't really gather any useful information from a single service like Xfire. It doesn't realistically represent the player base since only certain types of players would be using Xfire. It could be that half of the types of people who use Xfire just don't like the game while most other people do, and that their numbers represent 1% of the total swtor population. You need to have a truly random sampling in order to reliably show trends.

 

Exactly. This is like taking a presidential poll, but only using one state as a statistic....Very nice!

[Razyr]

Sorry wrong....it was much later that WoW reached those numbers Nice misinformation though...also Bioware has already taken the fastest growing title from Blizzard they can't win back....and according to Georg Zollers Google people are going to be very surprised when Feb 1st rolls around and the numbers are announced to the investors..he wouldn't say that unless they were high and growing.

 

 

You are correct, except BioWare can take the title back with either Diablo 3 (which I think looks like trash but alot of people are excited about so yeah) or the next mmo they will release, Titan, which will probably be everything you could want from an online game AND THE KITCHEN SINK. Because if you think between 300-500 million is alot to invest in a video game, I'm betting that barely scratches the investment Blizzard has in Titan. I don't even like Blizzard as a company and I have to admit that Titan will be huge.

[Nighthawked]

You are correct, except BioWare can take the title back with either Diablo 3 (which I think looks like trash but alot of people are excited about so yeah) or the next mmo they will release, Titan, which will probably be everything you could want from an online game AND THE KITCHEN SINK. Because if you think between 300-500 million is alot to invest in a video game, I'm betting that barely scratches the investment Blizzard has in Titan. I don't even like Blizzard as a company and I have to admit that Titan will be huge.

 

Even the all mighty Titan cannot stand up against WoW in terms of 10 years of continuous polish, content, and what everybody has been complaining about.

 

Did you see the new Blizzard job posting? It is to create real world objects for in-game advertising. I bet you Titan will be F2P because they know it cannot compete (just like every other MMO cannot and never can compete with WoW).

[Wizzrobe]

Unsurprisingly, I've had someone posting the same links in comments on my blog and arguing the same thing. It's like they're trying to tell anyone that will listen that the game is doomed. And I shot him down, much like most of the comments already here (SWTOR players must be a smart bunch )

 

You cannot use a drop in activity to predict a drop in subscription numbers. A drop in activity can also be caused by:

 

• An end in holiday (SWTOR was released during a holiday period)
  
• An end to levelling activity (day 1 players are known to play intensely up to level cap then ease off)
  
• Completion of existing content and waiting for further content/patches to arrive
  
• Other real-life or non-game factors.
  

 

 

I'll ask the same questions here that I asked on my blog and didn't get a reply to:

 

• Do you have any links to peer reviewed studies, research journals, in-depth theses or other evidence of equal quality that prove a link from server activity to subscription numbers?
  
• Do you have any sources, from respected journalists known for fact checking and accuracy through to published analysts that agree with your estimations?
  
• Do you have any solid, reliable evidence direct from the publishers themselves that support your claims about other MMO games relating to first month sales and subscription numbers?
  

 

It's time to put up or shut up. Either show us something more than the same refuted links or Get The Heck Off these forums.

 

 

If you are arguing over the 'the game is failing' issue then I agree, one or two servers can be a statistical anomaly that does not impact the overall growth or decline of the game. People play more during the holidays, I get it.

 

If you are accusing me (and others) on the unpopulated realms of making things up, then you are burying your head in the sand and no amount of 'documentation' is going to convince you. I've already posted screenshots and census numbers and told everyone my server name and the times I log on. I am not going to hire a team of scientists to prove it to you.

 

Do you honestly think it's healthy to have these servers with slightly over 200 people (total, their faction) online with 12-20 people in the fleet during primetime?

[Jett-Rinn]

Approx 200k subs Day 1. 1.5 million come March. Feel free to do some research.

 

Edit: You own link shows that. LOL

 

Yes WoW was launched on Nov 23rd 2004....it didn't reach 1.5 million till four months later.

 

TOR Launched on November Dec 20th 2011 it has one million users by Dec 27th 2011 It took over three months for WoW to reach one million users.

 

Now TOR has a estimated 2.2 million users by Dec 30th.......current speculation is the numbers are 2.5 to 3 million users.

 

Spin it all you like Jack those are the facts.