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Quarterly Producer Letter for Q2 2024 ×

Just so you won't say it wasn't predictable ...


StrikePrice

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10 hours ago, DawnAskham said:

Again - please explain how sellers are able to offer a billion credits for a dollar by using normal gameplay means to obtain credits?

Is there some third-world country with SWTOR credit farmers earning a nickel a day for playing the game for credits?

You can accumulate billions & billions of credits on the GTN much faster you could ever get farming content with bots. Once you have a larger bank of credits, it gets even easier. That’s how credit sellers do it. 

I was able to identify probable credit sellers/farmers when I was doing lots of GTN trading 12 months ago by just the way they traded. Of course it’s impossible to confirm them 100% because they could have just been savvy traders that used bot like systems & other strange trading behaviour.

There was also a CM dupe happening about 36-24 months ago that allowed them to accumulate lots of free CM items to sell on the GTN. 

But this didn’t cause inflation because selling stuff on the GTN doesn’t make credits or cause inflation, it just moves credits from one player to another. Inflation can only happen when there are excess credits generated in the game. Botting the current content or mats to sell at vendors would not generate near enough credits to cause inflation. 

Inflation was caused by excess credits being generated from the dropped gear of the old gearing system & the game giving to many credits as rewards without enough good credit sinks to off set them. 

We’ve always had Inflation, but it really started going out of control during the 6.x period. You can go back & look at my posts during this time where I warned BioWare that we would hit hyper inflation if they didn’t do something 2+ years ago.

They didn’t listen & then we got hyper inflation just before 7.x launched. This was exacerbated by the removal of the amplifier credit sink & when item values went above 1 billion credits. Once people started selling outside of the GTN because of the 1 billion GTN credit cap, they were inadvertently avoiding the best credit sink in the game. That just made the inflation accelerate because the 8% tax wasn’t being applied to any high end sales anymore.

That’s why I believe the only thing BioWare really need to do next is close the tax avoidance loop hole of player to player sales outside of the GTN & raise the GTN & character credit caps. 

I personally don’t think they need to make it higher than 8-10% on the GTN or outside it. But they’ve decided to go a different direction of which I have reservations about working correctly without any bugs (but that’s for a different post). 

At the end of the day, botting content & nodes in swtor isn’t causing inflation these days. It may have contributed to it  years ago, but it’s been 16 months since 7.0 landed & botting isn’t what’s causing the issues now. And the credit sellers ARE using the GTN & player to player trades to accumulate their cheap credits to sell. 

Edited by TrixxieTriss
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10 hours ago, Char_Ell said:

As far as I'm concerned this theory has just as much credibility as any you've offered.  What the in-game credit economy debate has lacked is good data.  We know BioWare has the data but of course does not share it with players.  Here are the credit selling prices I observed and recorded from February thru April.  I did not see any credit sellers advertising from mid-March until April 9.  I concluded that credit sellers must have lost a bunch of their credits and so increased their sale rate.  What is your explanation for why the cost of credits has increased so much since mid March?  Why does it seem like a conspiracy theory to think that because credit sellers have increased the cost of credits that players that buy from credit sellers have not been buying as much, reducing credit supply and thus without as many credits in the economy we've seen a corresponding drop in prices of the trade economy?

 

Date Server Dollars Credits
2/8/2023 Satele Shan $1.60 1,000,000,000
2/12/2023 Satele Shan $1.60 1,000,000,000
2/15/2023 Star Forge $1.30 1,000,000,000
2/16/2023 Satele Shan $1.30 1,000,000,000
2/19/2023 Satele Shan $1.30 1,000,000,000
3/4/2023 Satele Shan $1.30 1,000,000,000
3/8/2023 Satele Shan $1.30 1,000,000,000
3/14/2023 Satele Shan $2.29 1,000,000,000
3/16/2023 Satele Shan $3.49 1,000,000,000
4/9/2023 Satele Shan $9.90 1,000,000,000
4/24/2023 Star Forge $7.99 1,000,000,000
4/25/2023 Satele Shan $7.99 1,000,000,000
4/27/2023 Satele Shan $7.99 1,000,000,000

I’ve explained it in multiple posts over multiple threads for the last 6 months & I actually warned BioWare about inflation over 2+ years ago. It gets exhausting having to repost in every thread to explain things. But I’ve explain it again in my previous post to this one.

To sum up. Credit sellers are using the GTN & player to player sales to accumulate their credits by selling flipped CM & crafted items. That’s how they can offer such cheap credits. It is impossible to generate the those amounts of credits any other way. They also probably still have a treasure trove of free CM items they got from a cartel market dupe that happened 24-36 months ago (which BioWare kept suppressed for good reason).

People don’t seem to realise there were so many excess credits generated during the 5.x-6.x period of the game. That’s where the excess credits came from & with the games best credit sink (GTN) not working properly & another one completely removed (amplifiers), those credits aren’t leaving the game like they used to, they are just being moved around which devalues them more. 
 

This is the credit sellers business model.

1. Sell free or cheap CM & crafted items on the GTN or directly to players for credits. 

2. Then sell the credits directly back to players for real money. 

3. Sell free or cheap CM & crafted items on the GTN or directly to players for credits. 

4. Then sell the credits directly back to players for real money. 

Rinse & repeat.

And because the GTN Tax (sink) is being avoided on high end sales, those credits are just continuously flowing back & forth between the credit sellers & the players. They don’t need to generate new credits because the games best credit sink is being avoided. They are basically recycling them. That’s why they are so cheap.
 

Edited by TrixxieTriss
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9 hours ago, microstyles said:

Your chart corresponds with the price drops I've seen pretty well. Definitely the best theory I've heard for what's happening currently in the credit economy.

The prices on most of the things I monitor are like 1/3 of what they were a few months ago. If that's the effect of banning credit sellers regularly, then bioware should just do that and scrap all these fees against legitimate players.

The prices don’t indicate anything on their own except there are too many credits in the game. The theory is still wrong. 

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7 hours ago, OlBuzzard said:

Buying and selling legitimate items on the CM does not cause inflation.  Excessive generation of credits (and nothing still out there to spend them on) ... this adds to inflation.

Sorry Buzz, you know I respect you’re opinion, but this is the only part of your post that’s 100% correct.

Bots can’t create enough credits in the game these days to affect inflation. 

And while Exploits are always a possibility, there aren’t any at the moment & BioWare moved fast to close the last one & embargo those credits better than they ever have before. So exploits & bots are not generating excess credits. These credits are still from the 5.x-6.x period.

Credit sellers aren’t causing the inflation. But they are a symptom of it & they have streamlined their business model to take full advantage of the situation (please see my previous posts). They are getting their cheap credits directly from players now. They don’t need to generate them anymore. 

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15 hours ago, Aries_cz said:

I am reasonably sure the video posted of something like 10 character (very clearly bots) standing on Ord Mantel and farming Savrips (and collecting the dropped credits) is pretty clear example of bots generating credits the sellers then sell to people. Where do you think the sellers selling billions of credits for ludicrously cheap prices generate them? They certainly are not playing the game "as it should be"

Unless you meant something completely different

The reason I wanted to see the link was to point out how old it was. This used to happen in the early years of the game. I know because I made my own videos of it happening & got BioWare directly involved multiple times to have these bots removed. 

With the amount of credits already in the game now being so incredibly high & with hyperinflation, running Bots like this wouldn’t add near enough credits for the credit sellers to offer their prices or restock their supply. It would be a rain drop in ocean already full.

If you don’t believe me. Go to a starter planet or any planet for that matter & only farm mobs for a few hours & you’ll see that the junk you sell & the credits you get aren’t as high as you think. 

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6 hours ago, juliushorst said:

Let's not forget several exploits that happened over the years and added insane amounts of credits to the economy.

Yes lots of credits were added many, many years ago. Which jump started the  inflation. But they aren’t happening now & aren’t the cause of the Hyperinflation in the game.

BioWare also closed the last exploit incredibly quick & quarantined those credits better than they ever done before.

It’s why we saw people making posts & threads about their personal & guild banks being embargoed recently because they received credits from the exploit or players who exploited. 

I’ll reiterate, Exploits & Bots are not causing the current inflation. 

 

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Quote

Prices went down a lot recently because of bot/credit sellers ban wave

They haven't stopped selling them on Leviathan. (The french server). Crazy thing is, they are advertising on the fleet in English, and selling for Dollars, not Euros  (or british pounds) So obviously they are not locals.

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1 hour ago, TrixxieTriss said:

To sum up. Credit sellers are using the GTN & player to player sales to accumulate their credits by selling flipped CM & crafted items. That’s how they can offer such cheap credits. It is impossible to generate the those amounts of credits any other way. They also probably still have a treasure trove of free CM items they got from a cartel market dupe that happened 24-36 months ago (which BioWare kept suppressed for good reason).

I don't understand how you obtained intimate knowledge about how credit sellers obtain their credits and operate their business.  If you want to link to your previous posts where you provide info on how you learned about credit seller business model that is fine with me.  No need to repost.  I mean seriously, the credits have to come from somewhere.   You seem to think it's the credit sellers that are dominating the GTN and all they do is watch the GTN day and night to buy items that are low and repost them for higher prices.

 

1 hour ago, TrixxieTriss said:

People don’t seem to realise there were so many excess credits generated during the 5.x-6.x period of the game. That’s where the excess credits came from & with the games best credit sink (GTN) not working properly & another one completely removed (amplifiers), those credits aren’t leaving the game like they used to, they are just being moved around which devalues them more. 

Again, how do you know this?  I was around for all of 5.x-6.x.  Specifics please.  BioWare removed the credit rewards from conquest quite a while ago.

In any event, you ignored my previous fact based observations as to the significant cost increase to purchase from credit sellers since mid-March and how that could be a big contributor to the drop in prices for the game's trade economy.   I didn't ask you to explain the credit seller business model.  I asked you: "What is your explanation for why the cost of credits has increased so much since mid March?  Why does it seem like a conspiracy theory to think that because credit sellers have increased the cost of credits that players that buy from credit sellers have not been buying as much, reducing credit supply and thus without as many credits in the economy we've seen a corresponding drop in prices of the trade economy?"

 

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Just now, Char_Ell said:

I don't understand how you obtained intimate knowledge about how credit sellers obtain their credits and operate their business.  If you want to link to your previous posts where you provide info on how you learned about credit seller business model that is fine with me.  No need to repost.  I mean seriously, the credits have to come from somewhere.   You seem to think it's the credit sellers that are dominating the GTN and all they do is watch the GTN day and night to buy items that are low and repost them for higher prices.

 

Again, how do you know this?  I was around for all of 5.x-6.x.  Specifics please.  BioWare removed the credit rewards from conquest quite a while ago.

In any event, you ignored my previous fact based observations as to the significant cost increase to purchase from credit sellers since mid-March and how that could be a big contributor to the drop in prices for the game's trade economy.   I didn't ask you to explain the credit seller business model.  I asked you: "What is your explanation for why the cost of credits has increased so much since mid March?  Why does it seem like a conspiracy theory to think that because credit sellers have increased the cost of credits that players that buy from credit sellers have not been buying as much, reducing credit supply and thus without as many credits in the economy we've seen a corresponding drop in prices of the trade economy?"

 

Dude, I’m not here to prove stuff to you or go looking for my old posts to link. You can just as easily go back and find them as I can.

But if you use some logic in you’re reasoning, you’ll realise my analysis is correct. It’s not that hard to put 1+1 together to = 2. 

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8 hours ago, juliushorst said:

Let's not forget several exploits that happened over the years and added insane amounts of credits to the economy.

lets not forget the enormously staggering amount of entirely legitimate credit generation that publicly released information has only scratched the surface of

several years of conquest rewards in which a ~1500 credit goal generated 64 billion credits all on its own

8 years of level-scaled mission rewards getting more and more rewarding for incredibly basic content as each expansion increases the level cap

ongoing removal of credit sinks under the guise of "quality of life improvement"

 

the biggest culprit for causing inflation is bioware themselves

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3 hours ago, Shayddow said:

They haven't stopped selling them on Leviathan. (The french server). Crazy thing is, they are advertising on the fleet in English, and selling for Dollars, not Euros  (or british pounds) So obviously they are not locals.

I lol when I went on the French server and see gamereasy.com advertising in english and use the usd currency.

The bots are so lazy they don't even google translate.

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1 hour ago, denavin said:

Would the REAL TrixxieTriss please come back. The imposter that is using the name has no idea what they are talking about.

I’m here. You don’t have to agree with me every time 😉

If you step back & look at my arguments instead of the conspiracies being spread, you’ll see the logic behind them.

Where as the conspiracies all have holes in their logic that can be easily explained.

If you think my logic has holes as well, then please show me where so I can address it.

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8 hours ago, TrixxieTriss said:

Dude, I’m not here to prove stuff to you or go looking for my old posts to link. You can just as easily go back and find them as I can.

But if you use some logic in you’re reasoning, you’ll realise my analysis is correct. It’s not that hard to put 1+1 together to = 2. 

In other words, you can't be bothered to back up your own claims and won't respond to evidence I provided.  Got it.  Your theorycrafting may make perfect sense to you but does not to me.  As I said your theory can be lumped into the same "conspiracy theory" category just as easily as the ones you place in that category.

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I think you all almost arguing for the sake of it. Neither is completely right or completely wrong.

 

Farming mats with bots (or CM flip) does not generate new credits. But that do not mean it does not contribute to inflation.

a- Bots farm mats

b- Players A have lots of credits from doing little content and buys the mats (or crafted good with those mats) for credits

c- Credit seller sells those credits by RTM to Players B

d- Players B have lots of credit without doing anything

 

So, what 'starts' the inflation is the overprinting we had for years before 7.0. Farmers with almost free reign took advantage of that and circulated those credits at increasing rates.

That increased rate does generate more inflation. Money velocity/circulation is maybe a more advanced economic topic than supply/demand or money printing/sink, but is key in understanding how allowing credit sellers/bots work so freely is huge contributing factor to inflation:

https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/economics/velocity-of-circulation/

 

I really hope the current increase in sellers prices is due to massive bans and not because they are hoarding for latter. Now, massive bans (with credit deletion) from time to time is not a solution, BW need to be more proactive in this subject. This crafting meta is just too bot friendly; without addressing that credit seelers will rebuild sooner rather than later.

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2 hours ago, Balameb said:

I think you all almost arguing for the sake of it. Neither is completely right or completely wrong.

 

Farming mats with bots (or CM flip) does not generate new credits. But that do not mean it does not contribute to inflation.

a- Bots farm mats

b- Players A have lots of credits from doing little content and buys the mats (or crafted good with those mats) for credits

c- Credit seller sells those credits by RTM to Players B

d- Players B have lots of credit without doing anything

 

So, what 'starts' the inflation is the overprinting we had for years before 7.0. Farmers with almost free reign took advantage of that and circulated those credits at increasing rates.

That increased rate does generate more inflation. Money velocity/circulation is maybe a more advanced economic topic than supply/demand or money printing/sink, but is key in understanding how allowing credit sellers/bots work so freely is huge contributing factor to inflation:

https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/economics/velocity-of-circulation/

 

I really hope the current increase in sellers prices is due to massive bans and not because they are hoarding for latter. Now, massive bans (with credit deletion) from time to time is not a solution, BW need to be more proactive in this subject. This crafting meta is just too bot friendly; without addressing that credit seelers will rebuild sooner rather than later.

That is not inflation.

This process as you described literally does not create any credits, only drains them from economy through GTN tax (assuming the mats were sold on GTN, if not it just moved existing credits around and had zero effect on amount of money existing)

Inflation is money loosing its value by the increasing supply of money.

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14 hours ago, TrixxieTriss said:

I’ve explained it in multiple posts over multiple threads for the last 6 months & I actually warned BioWare about inflation over 2+ years ago. It gets exhausting having to repost in every thread to explain things. But I’ve explain it again in my previous post to this one.

To sum up. Credit sellers are using the GTN & player to player sales to accumulate their credits by selling flipped CM & crafted items. That’s how they can offer such cheap credits. It is impossible to generate the those amounts of credits any other way. They also probably still have a treasure trove of free CM items they got from a cartel market dupe that happened 24-36 months ago (which BioWare kept suppressed for good reason).

People don’t seem to realise there were so many excess credits generated during the 5.x-6.x period of the game. That’s where the excess credits came from & with the games best credit sink (GTN) not working properly & another one completely removed (amplifiers), those credits aren’t leaving the game like they used to, they are just being moved around which devalues them more. 
 

This is the credit sellers business model.

1. Sell free or cheap CM & crafted items on the GTN or directly to players for credits. 

2. Then sell the credits directly back to players for real money. 

3. Sell free or cheap CM & crafted items on the GTN or directly to players for credits. 

4. Then sell the credits directly back to players for real money. 

Rinse & repeat.

And because the GTN Tax (sink) is being avoided on high end sales, those credits are just continuously flowing back & forth between the credit sellers & the players. They don’t need to generate new credits because the games best credit sink is being avoided. They are basically recycling them. That’s why they are so cheap.
 

You're probably right, but it would be very easy to find these accounts and ban them. They probably don't have any data analysis/ML people on their team, but if they did, they could solve that problem in an instant. 

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11 minutes ago, StrikePrice said:

You're probably right, but it would be very easy to find these accounts and ban them. They probably don't have any data analysis/ML people on their team, but if they did, they could solve that problem in an instant. 

I think it would be hard to find the accounts because the ones they use to GTN trade look like regular players from the outside. And BioWare don’t have the analytical skills to identify them from a spread sheet of data. If they had these skills, they wouldn’t need players to report back all the problems with the game. 

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3 hours ago, Balameb said:

I think you all almost arguing for the sake of it. Neither is completely right or completely wrong.

 

Farming mats with bots (or CM flip) does not generate new credits. But that do not mean it does not contribute to inflation.

a- Bots farm mats

b- Players A have lots of credits from doing little content and buys the mats (or crafted good with those mats) for credits

c- Credit seller sells those credits by RTM to Players B

d- Players B have lots of credit without doing anything

 

So, what 'starts' the inflation is the overprinting we had for years before 7.0. Farmers with almost free reign took advantage of that and circulated those credits at increasing rates.

That increased rate does generate more inflation. Money velocity/circulation is maybe a more advanced economic topic than supply/demand or money printing/sink, but is key in understanding how allowing credit sellers/bots work so freely is huge contributing factor to inflation:

https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/economics/velocity-of-circulation/

 

I really hope the current increase in sellers prices is due to massive bans and not because they are hoarding for latter. Now, massive bans (with credit deletion) from time to time is not a solution, BW need to be more proactive in this subject. This crafting meta is just too bot friendly; without addressing that credit seelers will rebuild sooner rather than later.

Inflation is the affect of too many credits being in the game. When there are too many, it devalues them. So people put up prices to compensate. But the rising prices aren’t the cause of the inflation. They are a symptom of too much easy to obtain currency that’s being devalued because of the amount being generated or already in the game.

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4 hours ago, Char_Ell said:

In other words, you can't be bothered to back up your own claims and won't respond to evidence I provided.  Got it.  Your theorycrafting may make perfect sense to you but does not to me.  As I said your theory can be lumped into the same "conspiracy theory" category just as easily as the ones you place in that category.

Believe what you want. I’m not obligated to find stuff for you just because your too lazy to look at my other posts. 

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22 minutes ago, Aries_cz said:

That is not inflation.

This process as you described literally does not create any credits, only drains them from economy through GTN tax (assuming the mats were sold on GTN, if not it just moved existing credits around and had zero effect on amount of money existing)

Inflation is money loosing its value by the increasing supply of money.

If you are going to quote me (or anyone else) just to contradict, at least have the decency read properly first.

First: In two places i comment in regards to 'supply' of credits. And i have made several post in that regards.

Second: Inflation can be defined in different ways and i have yet to find one that includes the 'increase of money supply' in it (as in 'being'). The increase of money supply can CAUSE inflation, but inflation can be caused by other things as well. Supply and Demand can cause inflation without printing a single bill/credit if it affects several goods/items. So can the velocity of money circulation.

I guess you may not want to follow a link explaining what i said. But you can make your own search and get educated.

Just now, TrixxieTriss said:

Inflation is the affect of too many credits being in the game. When there are too many, it devalues them. So people put up prices to compensate. But the rising prices aren’t the cause of the inflation. They are a symptom of too much easy to obtain currency that’s being devalued because of the amount being generated or already in the game.

I never said otherwise. I'm just saying there are ALSO (not instead) other contributing factors to inflation and credit sellers is one of them.

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@TrixxieTriss:

** Nope !!  Sorry .. MOST of what I posted is not only the truth ... but repeated by quite a few people (some in this thread).
** The only "questionable item" ... I mentioned:  BOTS.  IMO it's really difficult to see just how much of an impact they have on the game.  BOTS are POSSIBLY being used on generating tons of crafting mats.  (Several of us question how the same players can repeatedly produce PAGES and PAGES of maxed line items 999999 so frequently).  It's hard to say just how much that sort of "credit swapping" on that scale affects everything else.  (I'm guessing that it's not good though).  IMO ... this is also a sideline issue.

At the heart of the matter is (simply stated) where in the name of common sense did THAT many credits come from.  Someone posted a few months ago an attempt to prove just how impossible it is to credit farm MASSIVE amounts of credits (under normal circumstances even given playing an excessive amount of time during the week).  Sooo  since credit farming isn't at the heart of the matter ... and neither is buying (cheap) and selling (high end for top value) ...  BOTS ... that generate credits ...???  I admitted earlier that this is an unknown.  And the simple fact is that none of us have any EXACT figures as to how many credits have been injected into the game through unsanctioned, illegitimate or other methods that are illicit, banned, or otherwise prohibited.

In short what you are calling a symptom is in fact one of the primary causes of what we have:  runaway inflation!  Someone printed a lot of bogus "cash" and flooded the marketplace with it!

Does it really matter at this point which is the greater of the evils that has all but created this calamity?  (Please note: this is a rhetorical question).

I for one don't give a .... rip as to how we got here!  There are SEVERAL reasons!  IMO those reasons all point to one thing!!!

FIX THE STUPID PROBLEM!!!  (er ... problemS)

"Fixes" that are aimed at the community at large will tend to generate a LOT of negativity!  Closing tax loopholes will help to FIX the end results of the problem ... but will NOT FIX what got us here in the first place.  It does help ...

(good grief)

[/facepalm] ....

........  (never mind)

(what's the use ?????? )

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10 minutes ago, TrixxieTriss said:

Credit sellers are a symptom, not a cause. 

They are both.

They are fueled first by the overprinted credits and then they circulate them. Too fast credit circulation (and a big chunck not being taxed) makes inflation worst.

Think of it like this. Without credit sellers, a legit crafter may need X time to sell an item. With credit sellers circulating the credits, that same crafter may needs lees than half the time to sale the item; many in the same situation then price is increased.

Sure, without credit sellers and only too many credits generated, prices would still increase, just less fast.

And to be more clear, i'm not saying credit sellers are the root issue. But the combat of them should be priority as well to keep inflation in check.

More than a year after big changes in credit generation and we still experienced hyperinflation. Why? They already had the credits, they circulated them and they are players in several pieces of the economy that they surely recovered a good portion of the same credit/goods they already sold. With last big patch most prices went down more than half in very little time (btw it was then and not the current anouncements as the troll OP here said). As much i'm sure the crafting meta being too old is a factor that is lowering demand, the decrease was fast enough that i'm inclined to agree the ban of credit sellers had a huge influence. Removing them removes a lot of the excess credits.

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23 hours ago, OlBuzzard said:

Just how recognizable is the usage of BOTS???  (Sorry this is beyond my paygrade... someone like @SteveTheCynic will have to respond to that).

It's all about observing patterns of behaviour, although some game companies add a bit of extra sauce to the pot.  Example: Guild Wars 2 has a certain level of problems with bots farming loot using certain builds that are well-suited to it (Engineers and especially Necromancers, where turrets/minions kill foes for the player) and the account has full auto-loot activated.  The in-game staff accounts will observe these things and talk to characters that are doing it.  A lack of coherent response will eventually get the staff member to move the character to a different location (not too far away in case it really is an AFK player) and see what happens.

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