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Hey Dev's, can't figure out RANDOM Flash points? Take a course in statistics...


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I just need to vent here for a minute. I queue in the group finder in order to go through RANDOM FP's. If this was truly a random event, I wouldn't get CZ-198 for THREE (3), count it, THREE TIMES IN A ROW! This is a CONSTANT problem. Every time I queue up, that instance pops more than any other instance by far. Why is this? I don't need to tell developers that RANDOM is the opposite of FIXED. When the natural statistical probability is actually 1 in 19, how is it possible to get the same instance over and over and over and over and over again, every day for multiple times IN A ROW!!!!!!!!!

 

This instance is obviously favored for some reason, and fixing this kind of thing and telling everyone that it's random is unethical. Random means random so try to go back to school, figure out how to make your computer language understand it, and let's try to see some of those other instances that we never do because the game is fixed to favor only a few FP's. Venting done.

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A) Groups that you join form a minority of groups that are formed through the group finder. Even if you happen to get the same flashpoints more often than not doesn't mean that in the grand scheme of things they don't pop equally.

 

B) If you have selected all available flashpoints, you can and will be put together with people that have not. Someone might have queued specifically for the flashpoint in question, and the three other people that were in the group are still there, despite having checked every FP.

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Someone might have queued specifically for the flashpoint in question

That's the most likely explanation, especially since the Czerka flashpoints are among the easier ones. If you are really tired of them, you can just uncheck them and queue for all the other flashpoints.

But flaming the devs for a flawed RNG system is completely uncalled for, and besides, three times the same flashpoint in a row is possible even when everyone selected every flashpoint from the list.

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Not really sure who needs what course; statistics are the final product, probablility is what you are dealing with here.

 

And probability says that each time you queue for a flashipoint and get a group, there is a constant, flat chance of getting CZ.

 

You can get it 100 times in a row, or not get it at all, and it would still be random, because there was a chance of getting other flashpoints as well.

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Someone might have queued specifically for the flashpoint in question

I've done this.

 

I like to do flashpoints as they fit chronologically into the story while leveling. So I'll queue for specific ones depending on what planet I'm on.

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tl:dr version: It isn't the devs who need to take a course in statistics, and it isn't me either.

 

If this was truly a random event, I wouldn't get CZ-198 for THREE (3), count it, THREE TIMES IN A ROW!

It might. Random means that any result could occur on each attempt, and the FP roll results can (should) be assumed to be "independent", meaning that the result on one attempt does not affect the result of the next attempt. Roll a six-sided die three times, as if you are rolling a stat for classic (A)D&D but you only have one d6 available. Can you get an 18? Of course, because the die can (randomly) come up 6, 6, 6. Now write "CZ" on the face alongside the 6. Now roll that 18 again... You just got CZ three times in a row. (I'm joking slightly here - there are more than six FPs available, but the principle remains the same.)

 

Yes, it's unlikely, but it isn't impossible.

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I believe the cz-198 flashpoints also give extra points for conquest this week, so probably a lot of people are queuing for only those two flashpoints.

 

I think this is the most likely cause.

 

People grinding out conquest points are queuing specifically for that flashpoint and not others, so groups form for it more quickly than others. The OP's best bet is to uncheck the one(s) he's tired of running.

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tl:dr version: It isn't the devs who need to take a course in statistics, and it isn't me either.

 

 

It might. Random means that any result could occur on each attempt, and the FP roll results can (should) be assumed to be "independent", meaning that the result on one attempt does not affect the result of the next attempt. Roll a six-sided die three times, as if you are rolling a stat for classic (A)D&D but you only have one d6 available. Can you get an 18? Of course, because the die can (randomly) come up 6, 6, 6. Now write "CZ" on the face alongside the 6. Now roll that 18 again... You just got CZ three times in a row. (I'm joking slightly here - there are more than six FPs available, but the principle remains the same.)

 

Yes, it's unlikely, but it isn't impossible.

 

I think this is explained here

 

http://gwydir.demon.co.uk/jo/probability/calcdice.htm

"More than two dice

 

As the number of dice increase, then the different conditions can become more complicated. You can work out some simply.

 

The easiest is the probability of a number of dice being a particular number. For n dice, this is 1/(6n). For example, the probability for throwing 5 dice and getting them all sixes is 1/(65) = 1/(6x6x6x6x6) = 1/7776 = 0.000128 or 7775 to 1. "

 

So if I'm doing math correctly the odds of CZ 198 3 times in a row would be 1/19*1/19*1/19 or .0146% of the time.

 

All of the above explanations are possible, but I think another possibility is that the Dev's put a priority daily on a specific FP which gives it a greater probability. I've noticed on different days when I was running HM FP's a lot I would get the same ones 4 out of 5 times per day and it would rotate by day.

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Why are you even trying to fish for excuses when it's obvious that 3 identical pops in a row is not an abnormal result if any combination is possible.

 

No matter what you had in the last 2 pops having the same FP a third time is still on the table!

 

Only bad gamblers think that because they lost the last XXX times the chances of winning are improved.

Edited by Gyronamics
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It's truly amazing how given a set of random events how too many instantly assume that a cluster has meaning. IT DOESN'T!!!

 

A thousand people flip a coin 10 times, one person will get all heads. Does that person have a magic coin? NO!

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It's truly amazing how given a set of random events how too many instantly assume that a cluster has meaning. IT DOESN'T!!!

 

A thousand people flip a coin 10 times, one person will get all heads. Does that person have a magic coin? NO!

 

Here is the real probability of that happening in 10 rolls, 0.0009765625. All I am saying is that it is possible for it to be random but not as random as you believe. I really don't care one way or the other because I very rarely ever run FP's any more.

Edited by shanealdrich
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Here is the real probability of that happening in 10 rolls, 0.0009765625. All I am saying is that it is possible for it to be random but not as random as you believe. I really don't care one way or the other because I very rarely ever run FP's any more.

 

Right, as I said, 1000 (or more specifically 1024) people flip a coin ten times 1 will get all heads... That's probability. For those who don't know 0.0009765625 is 1/1024 :)

 

And FYI, the chance of getting one of the two CZ FPs three times in a row is 0.08% or roughly 1 in 1,000. NOT statistically insignificant.

Edited by psandak
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Right, as I said, 1000 (or more specifically 1024) people flip a coin ten times 1 will get all heads... That's probability. For those who don't know 0.0009765625 is 1/1024 :)

 

And FYI, the chance of getting one of the two CZ FPs three times in a row is 0.08% or roughly 1 in 1,000. NOT statistically insignificant.

 

Might be interesting to point out that once a person gets those 9 heads in a row, the 10th one is still 50/50...

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Might be interesting to point out that once a person gets those 9 heads in a row, the 10th one is still 50/50...

 

It might also be interesting to point out that once you get those 1,000 heads in a row its a 50% chance that you will get the 1,001 heads in a row.

 

It isn't that it is impossible it is that at some point it is very improbable.

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Might be interesting to point out that once a person gets those 9 heads in a row, the 10th one is still 50/50...

 

It might also be interesting to point out that once you get those 1,000 heads in a row its a 50% chance that you will get the 1,001 heads in a row.

 

It isn't that it is impossible it is that at some point it is very improbable.

 

True on both counts. My point is and has been that 3 CZ FPs in a row is not as improbable as the OP makes it out to be, even if it were not a conquest thing.

 

These types of threads always remind me of the TV series Numb3rs and the episode "Traffic" It starts with a seminar "math for non-math people" where Charlie (the Mathematician in the show) brings up two images. One image has points that are evenly distributed the other has some points clustered together. He asks the question which is more representative of raindrops on a sidewalk and the whole class indicates the evenly distributed image. He informs them that they are wrong but that it is human nature to think as they did.

 

The OP and too many others fall into that even = random trap.

Edited by psandak
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True on both counts. My point is and has been that 3 CZ FPs in a row is not as improbable as the OP makes it out to be, even if it were not a conquest thing.

 

These types of threads always remind me of the TV series Numb3rs and the episode "Traffic" It starts with a seminar "math for non-math people" where Charlie (the Mathematician in the show) brings up two images. One image has points that are evenly distributed the other has some points clustered together. He asks the question which is more representative of raindrops on a sidewalk and the whole class indicates the evenly distributed image. He informs them that they are wrong but that it is human nature to think as they did.

 

The OP and too many others fall into that even = random trap.

 

Except 1 in 6859 is improbable. That is like saying you can flip that 2 headed coin 12-13 times in a row and it always be heads. If it isn't very improbable I would suggest you start flipping a coin until you get heads 12 times in a row.

 

My only point is that this has been mentioned many times over the past few years and like I said I have noticed it happening more than it should when I was running 4-5 HM FP's per day (however, I've only run maybe 10 in the last year). There has to be some outside influence on the probabilities either people only queing for CZ or a weighting different than you and I believe.

Edited by shanealdrich
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It isn't really random especially when some who achievement hunt, or someone who got the story on a planet cherry pick which run the want to do. After the daily there really isn't a point to do some of them like Blood Hunt or Depths of Mannan when 80% of the groups that go in those won't make it past the second boss respectively. Edited by Lil_Fusion
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