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Populations Dropping. Speculation Thread...


Volthammer

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Yeah, to me it just looks like a really shiny funhouse made for deathmatching. It's so complicated and has so many working parts, it's a case of... "doing too much" imo.

 

I don't care if they create a new warzone, I am completely fine if they just fixed the balance or at öeast mixed it up a bit...

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Is another server merger on the horizon?

 

Thoughts?

 

I think server merges are on the horizon. Let's see what 4.3 brings, and mainly see if any of the PvP population comes back. A new WZ and Arena with the added ability of joining PvP instances on worlds might actually entice many to come back and stay. I know it's a longshot, but...

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Actually every metric we've heard from BW is that PVP is a very significant part of their player's interest. Ranked pvp has never caught on (and it never will until they implement their "better than x-server", make arenas x-faction, fix most balance issues, replace the engine, apologize profusely and come out with another Blur trailer) but regs has always been an activity for a significant percentage of their players. Shortly after the game came out they even admitted that they were surprised that just under 50% of everyone had done wzs (which is more than the current population en masse) and that's not counting some people that may have been doing Ilum pvp without doing wzs - I'm sure there were some of those...

 

I agree with this. At launch the devs said that they were going to be committed to PvP and providing the players with an enjoyable PvP experience. They have been limited by the engine, which is the inherent problem. Most of their issues come from this. Illum, cross-server, [fill in the blank] etc. What they really need to do is follow the what Final Fantasy did. REPLACE THE ENGINE WITH AN UPGRADED VERSION.

 

This would take easily a year, and would cost money. But while they are doing that they could implement things this current engine could not handle. Then this game would be what it was intended to be. Bugs have been worked out, cartel market has been implemented.

 

BioWare and EA, think about it. By changing the engine alone that would bring a high influx of players, plus all the game designs you intend or want to implement would bring about another high influx of players. Think of all the CM items that would be sold. You would easily make your money back and see record profits! Now wouldnt that make your shareholders happy? Just invest a little bit more, and in return you will get a lot back!

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I agree with this. At launch the devs said that they were going to be committed to PvP and providing the players with an enjoyable PvP experience. They have been limited by the engine, which is the inherent problem. Most of their issues come from this. Illum, cross-server, [fill in the blank] etc. What they really need to do is follow the what Final Fantasy did. REPLACE THE ENGINE WITH AN UPGRADED VERSION.

 

This would take easily a year, and would cost money. But while they are doing that they could implement things this current engine could not handle. Then this game would be what it was intended to be. Bugs have been worked out, cartel market has been implemented.

 

BioWare and EA, think about it. By changing the engine alone that would bring a high influx of players, plus all the game designs you intend or want to implement would bring about another high influx of players. Think of all the CM items that would be sold. You would easily make your money back and see record profits! Now wouldnt that make your shareholders happy? Just invest a little bit more, and in return you will get a lot back!

 

Hey! You just stop all this rational thinking, Mike! You stop it now, ya hear! :D

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General MMO trend, possibly exacerbated by some of the PvP balance missteps.

 

The surge in winter/holiday and Force Awakens players has ebbed. The latter category has probably hit endgame and leaving at roughly the same rate previous players have.

 

You are missing something in that assessment: SPRING is here! This ebb in population crosses playstyles and games. Days are longer, weather is warmer, fewer people are indoors playing video games. This has been happening since the earliest days of MMOs - I know because I was there ;). Going forward until October (when the days are shorter and the weather is colder, there will be bursts once a month (new KotFE chapter), and a bump when Rogue One comes to theaters this summer. But the sky is not falling, the world is not ending, and SWTOR will not be shutting down.

 

I am NOT saying that server mergers are not possible. In fact I agree that 4.3 pve/pvp instancing is the first step in that direction. I am saying that the population dip SWTOR is experiencing is 100% NORMAL.

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SWG at it's end had more players than this game have now, more fun and thrilling things to do way more active PvP players at mostly ANYTIME, a really fun TCG (best TCG after Magic I ever played) cantinas full of people (buffing, geting buffed, and BH chassing their marks LOL) and 0 gamble boxes, was only subscription and was a blast.

 

Just take a look at this

and see how many people were there crying before they plug the thing off.

 

I'll hear about SWG coming live again and I'll joing instantly. :(

 

This game it's a moneygrab grave and it was mean to fail since day 1 with most of SWG just hating it because what happened.

 

Someone will come and say that they are different beast, no they don't both share same fantasy one recreated it better and the other don't one was designed to have fun and the other it's designed to milk money.

At the end it's really nice to know that bad people get wht they deserve (no as often as good people will like)

 

Came to this game trying to have fun but I come from other games (MMO's) and basically all of them are the same gamble thing now with mega crates, gold boxes and whatnot and it's the only reason that this game exist, it's artificially keep alive just because they still earn proffit investing the minimun on it even if that means having their player base dissatisfied.

 

Pupulations Dropping hell yeah you can bet, I'm here waiting to run out of sub and didn't loged into the game for a week now, not like I'm willing neither, have way more fun things to do tbh.

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SWG at it's end had more players than this game have now, more fun and thrilling things to do way more active PvP players at mostly ANYTIME, a really fun TCG (best TCG after Magic I ever played) cantinas full of people (buffing, geting buffed, and BH chassing their marks LOL) and 0 gamble boxes, was only subscription and was a blast.

 

Just take a look at this

and see how many people were there crying before they plug the thing off.

 

I'll hear about SWG coming live again and I'll joing instantly. :(

 

This game it's a moneygrab grave and it was mean to fail since day 1 with most of SWG just hating it because what happened.

 

Someone will come and say that they are different beast, no they don't both share same fantasy one recreated it better and the other don't one was designed to have fun and the other it's designed to milk money.

At the end it's really nice to know that bad people get wht they deserve (no as often as good people will like)

 

Came to this game trying to have fun but I come from other games (MMO's) and basically all of them are the same gamble thing now with mega crates, gold boxes and whatnot and it's the only reason that this game exist, it's artificially keep alive just because they still earn proffit investing the minimun on it even if that means having their player base dissatisfied.

 

Pupulations Dropping hell yeah you can bet, I'm here waiting to run out of sub and didn't loged into the game for a week now, not like I'm willing neither, have way more fun things to do tbh.

 

Sadly a lot of this is pretty accurate. I never played the first SWG, but I have played MMOs since 2000 when I first started on EQ1.

 

Back then, MMOs seemed to be designed with the idea of expressing creativity through a passion. Through that passion came really groundbreaking, innovative ways to have fun online in a game.

 

Over time as all things do, it changed.

 

Once methods were developed to make money through the MMOs and it became clear riches could be made from them, the focus shifted. It went from being a product of creativity and passion to a product that catered first to the market and business side.

 

It seems like that's how all good things start out, and how they end.

 

I am not saying the artists, the devs, etc. had no passion in what they created here on swtor. I am sure they do have passion, and there are some very creative aspects to SWTOR.

 

I just think they have their hands bound and are forced to work in the direction they are instructed, and that's in the direction that brings in the most cash.

 

My point is it's quite obvious where the company stands on their priorities.

 

With all the development that goes into the Cartel Market items etc., how much focus goes into that and NOT the backbone of the game which is the actual gameplay it's clear they push their resources into what generates them money.

 

It's easy to understand why so many older gamers like myself are so nostalgic when we think back to our first MMOs and how different things were back then.

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Swtor population dying because

 

No new WZs

No changes to balance

Delays in starting season 7

No cross server

Currently no cross faction

Implementing a system to make PVE people play PVP who don't want to. Driving down the quality of the player base because those people don't try and don't care about PVP. It's a total noob fest.

 

My prediction is we are past the tipping point now. Bio would need to spend all year and most of their resources to make multiple new WZs, fix balance, get cross server happening, make cross faction a reality, remove the need for PVE people to do PVP... And lastly to communicate with us and actually give a damn.

People have been predicting the death of swtor since launch. I'm not going to go that far because I think it will continue in some form or other. But I can see the death of PVP approaching much faster now than ever before. Eventually PVP will be a side show, like the old space missions that no one does, but are still in the game. Pops at that stage will probably be hours, if not days. People will have to beg in chat to get enough people together just to do a 4 man reg match.

They are releasing a new WZ at the end of the year with cross faction. If it's not perfect at launch then any old players coming back to try it will leave quickly. That will put the nail in the coffin.

 

Iam very glad that there is no cross-faction. I think it's a stupid idea which spoils RP,war effort and other features of swtor theme.

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Iam very glad that there is no cross-faction. I think it's a stupid idea which spoils RP,war effort and other features of swtor theme.

 

So, do you just ignore the whole KOTFE thing, you know... where imps work with pubs and vice versa?

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So, do you just ignore the whole KOTFE thing, you know... where imps work with pubs and vice versa?

 

KotFE is the worst expansion I have ever been forced to witness and I really wholeheartly try to ignore all of its story because it isn't starwarsy at all.

 

(sets up his smile again)

 

But I am pro crossfaction.

Edited by aristrokratie
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...you really gotta ask?

 

Just come to Reps, not just those occasional matches. Cross over, make a lv60 and PvP for at least 2~3 months straight, and get a good picture of what's going on instead of those occasional glimpses some idiots put up saying, "Hey, I switch over to Reps all the time, I win plenty" shi*.

 

Do that, and then ask yourselves if anyone wants to play that shi* in that environment.

 

A few months after its start in 2011, in 2012 the server faction numbers I've seen were largest apart at 3:1 in favor of Imps. I'm guessing the imbalance is even more, at least in terms of PvP players. SWTOR has announced that its population and playerbase is still fine even in 2015. But clearly PvP pop. is dropping, and its really a very easy and simple reason behind it.

 

I say this is not just on Harbinger, but on every server with every Rep queueing into PvP at peak times. When Reps queue, the first impression you get from your team is "We'll probably lose." Yep. Call it a defeatist attitude if you want. But this doom and gloom, soggy and unenthusiastic outlook on how your match is going to be played out, comes from learned experience. It's been what's going on for last 5 years. What do you think that does to people?

 

I said it in some other post, but I say it here again. Why don't Reps make any premades? BECAUSE PEOPLE WHO ARE INCLINED TO MAKE PREMADES AND PVP GUILDS ARE ALL MONOPOLIZED BY THE IMPERIALS IN THE FIRST PLACE. There is genuinely NOT ENOUGH REP PVPERS. We do have some good guilds and players. Being in this frickin' one-sided situation, those PvPers who have survived the onslaught and still managed to play as Reps, are some of the best PvPers and PvP guilds in the server. But like, for every 10 matches that happen these guys can come join in maybe 1 or 2 at most. All the rest of the 8~9 matches as Reps are matches full of daily questers who don't give a shi* whether win or lose.

 

All the rest are newbies and casuals who like being a Jedi in the lore, and came to Reps as their first character. When these guys become better players, and remain interested in PvP, THEY CROSS OVER TO IMPS these days.

 

 

I've already laid down the mechanics of how PvP dies in plenty many threads. Its how I've observed many, many other MMOGs in the market die out in PvP for the last 20 years of my gaming experience. Its how my last MMOG which I've played until Dec. 2015 died out in PvP as well.

 

Initial imbalance is never addressed. PvPers all flock to one side. From that point the other side is almost predominantly losing. Casuals and daily questers who don't care just stay on and queue even still, but anyone who wants something from PvP can't take this one-sided bullshi* for long.

 

So, PvPers on this side all leave. Even casual players grow tired of just being crushed all the time. Soon you only have the worst of people ever left on this side, and these guys are what all your friggin' l33T premades are fighting. I don't imagine that all too fun. Sure, maybe for the first few thousand matches you one-sidedly stomp, but even that gets old.

 

Everything else is an excuse. You could receive new WZs and balancing every month, and still people won't give shi* in us Rep side, because we're all gonna lose 8~9 matches out of 10 anyway.

 

Turning blind eye to imbalance kills PvP. It always has. You can make zillion excuses about it, but even still, take heed my words, and watch how things unravel. I've seen it happen. Its happening here in SWTOR as well.

 

Come to Reps and even things up, enough to give confidence back to Rep players that they can still expect at least 4 wins out of 10 matches or so. Or, keep making flimsy excuses about how its not your fault, and then watch how PvP dries up.

 

The earliest lessons of life that even children learn when they first go to the playground:

 

When the other side keep winning, you either ask to remake teams, or don't play with them no mo'.

 

Did you people honestly think an entire faction full of people would still queue to PvP just the same to offer freebie kills and easy farming for you forever? So now that one of the two factions is about to just collapse and raise the middle finger to PvP, who are your l33T premades gonna play against? Yeah, that's right. Play amongst yourselves in the same WZs all the time, where the community shrinks so small that you know everyone on the other side. That's where you're headed.

 

Think about that.

Edited by kweassa
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I know, I won't 65 pvp anymore because of, No one dies because of heals and other stuff. it destroys the game for me. They have NO plans on fixing it . So just going to make toons to 65 then move them to new server . Till the game goes away. Its the only fun i have is playing lower warzones anymore. At least people die
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Iam very glad that there is no cross-faction. I think it's a stupid idea which spoils RP,war effort and other features of swtor theme.

 

Umm.. Who role plays in PVP except PVE noobs??

Plus cross faction would fix the faction in balance... You either want PVP to be successful and still viable or you want to RP.. The current game sistuation doesn't allow for both.. If you want your RP hit, go and do some PVE while you wait for your PVP pop.

On another note, most people I see trying to RP PVP are completely useless at PVP. It's a sure sign youre going to lose the match. Most of the time I will leave a match if there are a bunch of RP people on my team.

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Umm.. Who role plays in PVP except PVE noobs??

Plus cross faction would fix the faction in balance... You either want PVP to be successful and still viable or you want to RP.. The current game sistuation doesn't allow for both.. If you want your RP hit, go and do some PVE while you wait for your PVP pop.

On another note, most people I see trying to RP PVP are completely useless at PVP. It's a sure sign youre going to lose the match. Most of the time I will leave a match if there are a bunch of RP people on my team.

 

quite a few RP guilds pvp. however, RP is a relatively small population. in any case, there is a significant difference between instanced PVP and OW PVP. RP PVP makes all kinds of sense in OW PVP. However, it's just a balance issue in instanced PVP. The difference is that instanced PVP is supposed to be balanced (believe it or not). but the queue breaks because of faction imbalance (solo ranked) or becomes same faction matches ~70% of the time (reg WZs). Same faction matches, btw, make less sense than story-based x-faction (which is coming soon). so the above poster is on an island. but there is an argument against the merging factions throughout the story. it does screw with RP OW.

Edited by foxmob
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UTC 8:00 AM, Harbinger

 

Dromun Kaas: 108 players

Imp Fleet: 167 players

 

Coruscant: 57 players

Rep Fleet: 98 players

 

 

What's interesting is the amount of people in the Capital worlds, which, along with starter worlds I view as an indicator of new player/character population. Starter worlds are split apart, but eventually both storylines gathers everyone from lv10 and above to the Capital world -- which IMO at any given time can be viewed as how many people are making new characters.

 

In case of the fleet, with those numbers I'd estimate at least 15~20 Imp players queueing for PvP at any given time, whereas among that 100-ish people in reps, I estimate around maybe 10 at most, are queueing for PvP, and among those 10 maybe 1... or 2 people are from renowned PvP guilds.

 

With these numbers there'd be around 1 match going on that has a full Rep team, that has no premade or no PvP guild players, who are going to fight against a full Imp team with at least half are either premades or from PvP guilds. At the same time, since there aren't any more Reps queueing, the rest 10 players in the Imp side will be split into an Arena match against each other that goes on simultaneously as the reg WZ match.

 

Of course, all of this is speculation and supposition. But I'd bet my arse this is close to reality. Until the numbers fire up in the Reps again at peak hours, every Reps queueing for the time being will be likely to lose. So after exactly 4 matches, Reps will stop queueing, and the PvP queue will go dead, and every Imp queueing will be either fighting other Imps in 4v4, or in "training simulation" WZs.

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Just come to Reps, not just those occasional matches. Cross over, make a lv60 and PvP for at least 2~3 months straight, and get a good picture of what's going on instead of those occasional glimpses some idiots put up saying, "Hey, I switch over to Reps all the time, I win plenty" shi*.

 

Do that, and then ask yourselves if anyone wants to play that shi* in that environment.

 

I agree. I mean, people are so much "imp-headed" now, that they just have no clue how it feels on Rep side. "Dance on a volcano", to quote Genesis. One step astray, and you are a piece of ash, in case of the Pyro ac even literally :D

 

Imp side is insofar more forgiving in that it has - it least that's what I read here - far better balanced matches, imp vs. imp, of course. Small mistakes don't weigh in THAT heavily like they do with a faction that's literally outnumbered per se.

At least that's what I believe. If that's wrong, please correct me in a non-toxic manner. :D

 

I said it in some other post, but I say it here again. Why don't Reps make any premades? BECAUSE PEOPLE WHO ARE INCLINED TO MAKE PREMADES AND PVP GUILDS ARE ALL MONOPOLIZED BY THE IMPERIALS IN THE FIRST PLACE.

 

Interesting point. You mean that the majority of those who want to do premades go straight Imp side ?

Edited by AlrikFassbauer
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Interesting point. You mean that the majority of those who want to do premades go straight Imp side ?

 

Its just simple demographical logic. Premade is just another word for a "party" that's present in any MMORPG. It just boils down to "does your side have people that would go through the trouble of finding regular playing buddies, or form a guild to secure such buddies all the time, for the sake of PvP".

 

Most of the Rep population are casual players, light players, or not very fond of PvP in the first place -- because like I said, the population imbalance was here from the start. Rep players -- like so with any other PvE players -- would gladly make premades, "parties", to go on OPs... FPs... any other PvE content. But would they go through the trouble of doing so in a content which they were never interested about? Nope.

 

I dunno why PvErs are inclined to get PvP rewards in the first place, but they still want it. So they come in for the dailies and weeklies, and at the same time would want to enjoy PvP in the 'lightest' manner possible -- as in, "who care if we lose. I'm just in it for the 4x" type of people. If you see 8 people in your Rep team, you can bet that around 2 of them are experienced PvPers, 4 of them are daily questers, and 2 are casual PvPers who like PvP but not really good enough, nor have time to enjoy and practice it daily to get really good. Take a look at an Imp team and at least half of them are premades, or premade-level players.

 

Yes, Reps have good players, too. Reps have premades and PvP guilds as well. But like with any premades these guys operate only with each other, and since there are so few of these guys, only in maybe 1 out of 5~6 matches the casual players and newbie level players get that "assist" from premades -- whereas for the Imps, you can bet that there are premades or premade-level players in EVERY match that happens. There are low level, casual-level players solo queuing on both sides. Rep players are reminded of this fact every match in a very vicious way, whereas Imp players have it really, really, really easy since in almost every game they have premade level players behind their backs.

 

That's why the pop. imbalance is a problem. There's just not enough real PvPers in the first place. Imagine if some of those PvPers all flocked together at Imp side, were at the Reps -- then nobody would be complaining about premades, or matchmaking in the first place, since both sides would have roughly similar ratio of both good and bad players, hence most matches will teeter-totter around 50:50 odds of losing or winning. Win or lose, at least the game would be enjoyable -- instead of being a horror story every night. Enough of these horrible nights, and people just lose interest, or the will, to push that "queue for PvP" button.

Edited by kweassa
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Imp side is insofar more forgiving in that it has - it least that's what I read here - far better balanced matches, imp vs. imp, of course. Small mistakes don't weigh in THAT heavily like they do with a faction that's literally outnumbered per se.

 

At least that's what I believe. If that's wrong, please correct me in a non-toxic manner. :D

 

What I would be really, really interested in, is if the devs have any "big data" on the win:loss ratio of total matches played in WZs. Because in a PvP game, usually even a 5% mark is a huge indicator of imbalance, contrary to what most people think.

 

For example, in a PvP game which has personal ratings and stats, the absolute majority of players -- "average" guys who are not particularly good or bad, usually have a win chance of around 47~48%. When a player/team has a 50:50 even win-loss ratio, that's actually pretty decent, and when it goes over 55% its actually a very good score. The really top-of the line, super-skilled players have 60% or over... and when this goes over 65~70%, people genuinely reckon that there's some foul play involved -- as in, doing cheesy stuff like fighting in only winning matches, and leaving matches to avoid a loss record.

 

In that sense even a 5% is a huge difference concerning win-loss data. If the devs do collect such data, and if it shows the win-loss data of Reps being under 46~48% of winning, it can be considered evidence of serious imbalance -- as in, "the Reps are losing at a rate that is unnatural, if we assume both sides are more or less evenly populated" <== in which case, the conclusion would be "both sides are NOT evenly populated, and there is genuine, serious imbalance in the population"

Edited by kweassa
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UTC 8:00 AM, Harbinger

 

Dromun Kaas: 108 players

Imp Fleet: 167 players

 

Coruscant: 57 players

Rep Fleet: 98 players

 

 

What's interesting is the amount of people in the Capital worlds, which, along with starter worlds I view as an indicator of new player/character population. Starter worlds are split apart, but eventually both storylines gathers everyone from lv10 and above to the Capital world -- which IMO at any given time can be viewed as how many people are making new characters.

 

In case of the fleet, with those numbers I'd estimate at least 15~20 Imp players queueing for PvP at any given time, whereas among that 100-ish people in reps, I estimate around maybe 10 at most, are queueing for PvP, and among those 10 maybe 1... or 2 people are from renowned PvP guilds.

 

With these numbers there'd be around 1 match going on that has a full Rep team, that has no premade or no PvP guild players, who are going to fight against a full Imp team with at least half are either premades or from PvP guilds. At the same time, since there aren't any more Reps queueing, the rest 10 players in the Imp side will be split into an Arena match against each other that goes on simultaneously as the reg WZ match.

 

Of course, all of this is speculation and supposition. But I'd bet my arse this is close to reality. Until the numbers fire up in the Reps again at peak hours, every Reps queueing for the time being will be likely to lose. So after exactly 4 matches, Reps will stop queueing, and the PvP queue will go dead, and every Imp queueing will be either fighting other Imps in 4v4, or in "training simulation" WZs.

 

Actually that conclusion about starter worlds is skewed because you haven't taken into account strong holds.

When you go to your strong hold it adds to the population of that starting world.

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People will just continue to play till they find something better to do and then go do that.

 

Bio will continue to cater to the cartel market until it stops paying the bills.

 

Then the game will go away.

 

It's not that great of a game so the timeline really doesn't matter.

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Hahaha... Exploiting... Good one... Premades have been part of the game since launch... If you want to play a solo game, go play a console kid.. This is an MMO

 

Go ahead. Tell us how you really feel, some more. :D

 

Because in the end of every "premade" discussion, premade-apologists just revert to that attitude: "this is the reality, you ain't gonna be able to do shi* about how we walk all over you, so bite me. :D"

 

Of course, nothing personal -- just pointing out that the trend of discussions and debates associated with premades, in the end, just all flow this way -- regardless of what game you are playing. The exact same thing happened with my last game, which I now disclose to be Neverwinter, by Cryptic. The premade situation there... horrific. The queue takes more than 50 mins to get even a single match, and that single match you spend most of your time being spawncamped, if you're not a premade. The PvP's effectively dead. And some of the most prominent and notorious premades/guilds are nowadays actually offering to split up people and not make premades...

 

...of course, everything's too little, too late there. It's gone. PvP. Luckily, SWTOR isn't there yet. But don't doubt even a second that its coming.

 

It just makes me wonder, just which part of "Pick on somebody your own size" you guys cannot understand. Rather, you guys are saying, "If you don't like being bullied, c'mon, grow up to our size and stand before us". Really? :eek:

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Go ahead. Tell us how you really feel, some more. :D

 

Because in the end of every "premade" discussion, premade-apologists just revert to that attitude: "this is the reality, you ain't gonna be able to do shi* about how we walk all over you, so bite me. :D"

 

Of course, nothing personal -- just pointing out that the trend of discussions and debates associated with premades, in the end, just all flow this way -- regardless of what game you are playing. The exact same thing happened with my last game, which I now disclose to be Neverwinter, by Cryptic. The premade situation there... horrific. The queue takes more than 50 mins to get even a single match, and that single match you spend most of your time being spawncamped, if you're not a premade. The PvP's effectively dead. And some of the most prominent and notorious premades/guilds are nowadays actually offering to split up people and not make premades...

 

...of course, everything's too little, too late there. It's gone. PvP. Luckily, SWTOR isn't there yet. But don't doubt even a second that its coming.

 

It just makes me wonder, just which part of "Pick on somebody your own size" you guys cannot understand. Rather, you guys are saying, "If you don't like being bullied, c'mon, grow up to our size and stand before us". Really? :eek:

 

This debate has been going on since launch

 

And, anytime you feel you want to dual, let me know

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