EQN dead, Wildstar dying...swtor?

[IanArgent]

since wow, studios have been foaming at the mouth for a piece of the mmo pie

 

except the mmo market is shrinking rapidly. in the last 10 years, you can lose count over the number of mmos released that had no hope in hell of succeeding but they kept trying and trying and trying.

 

when blizzard decides to can an mmo project, you know you should cut your losses.

 

Apples and Oranges - that explains why there will not be a successor SW MMO if this one goes under. But this one is already built; the NRE is already done.

[Pagy]

Apples and Oranges - that explains why there will not be a successor SW MMO if this one goes under. But this one is already built; the NRE is already done.

NRE is done ok cool i guess that means no more patches or expansions

 

i guess that's true as of kotfe ironically enough. game is dead

[IanArgent]

NRE is done ok cool i guess that means no more patches or expansions

 

i guess that's true as of kotfe ironically enough. game is dead

 

C'mon. The NRE is building the game. Content and maintenance is (relatively) cheap. Now, I'm not sure we'll ever see as radical a change in the game as 4.0 was, mechanically, but I'm OK with that.

[Pagy]

C'mon. The NRE is building the game. Content and maintenance is (relatively) cheap. Now, I'm not sure we'll ever see as radical a change in the game as 4.0 was, mechanically, but I'm OK with that.

nre is a one-time cost to develop.

 

sorry this doesnt apply here as development should be continuous.

[Aricus]

I believe there will be a shutdown mainly because the economy is getting worst by the day. The dollar rise is starting to reverse, GDP is low, Inventories are high, A lot of lay-offs have been announced, and the FED is scared to raise rates because they see the pitiful outlook of the economy.

 

All this will affect EA's future outlook of this game and not only of this game but their entire company. Granted I think there's still time, probably looking at 2017-2018, probably 2019 at the most. When the bulk of this recession hits (like in 2008) and the dollar reverses, I don't think any non-manufacturing (or even manufacturing) US company that is mainly supported by US consumers will do well at all.

[Max_Killjoy]

....

 

Wut?

[IanArgent]

....

 

Wut?

 

I really need to add more tinfoil futures to my portfolio,

[IanArgent]

nre is a one-time cost to develop.

 

sorry this doesnt apply here as development should be continuous.

 

The NRE was developing the game and engine, and paying the up-front costs for the license, the labor costs prior to launch, etc.

 

Post-launch, the revenues have to exceed the expenses for maintenance, additional story development, and paying back the investment costs from pre-launch.

 

(Technically, I'm using NRE as "Non-Recoverable ENGINEERING" expenses - because saying Non-Recoverable EXPENSES is silly - there's very little that's recoverable in the operations expenses if this game is shut down)

[Pagy]

The NRE was developing the game and engine, and paying the up-front costs for the license, the labor costs prior to launch, etc.

 

Post-launch, the revenues have to exceed the expenses for maintenance, additional story development, and paying back the investment costs from pre-launch.

 

(Technically, I'm using NRE as "Non-Recoverable ENGINEERING" expenses - because saying Non-Recoverable EXPENSES is silly - there's very little that's recoverable in the operations expenses if this game is shut down)

dude you're not using nre in any sort of meaningful way here.

 

it's best used in the context of r&d and doesnt have any value in this conversation given the fact that an mmo, especially more than evry other gaming genre, requires continued maintenance.

 

whats the point in even pointing out the fact the initial dev is complete? we aren't talking about adding new gun types or skins, we're talking about an mmo that requires new worlds, new abilities, new quests etc.

Edited March 18, 2016 by Pagy

[IanArgent]

dude you're not using nre in any sort of meaningful way here.

 

it's best used in the context of r&d and doesnt have any value in this conversation given the fact that an mmo, especially more than evry other gaming genre, requires continued maintenance.

 

whats the point in even pointing out the fact the initial dev is complete? we aren't talking about adding new gun types or skins, we're talking about an mmo that requires new worlds, new abilities, new quests etc.

 

The point being that maintenance is a lot less expensive than the initial cost; and, more importantly, subject to metrics that say "we spend $X in maintenance and upkeep this month and pulled in $Y in revenue." As long as $Y is bigger than $X, all is good.

[Pagy]

The point being that maintenance is a lot less expensive than the initial cost; and, more importantly, subject to metrics that say "we spend $X in maintenance and upkeep this month and pulled in $Y in revenue." As long as $Y is bigger than $X, all is good.

are you going to continue to ignore the fact there are continued development projects in place for expansions beyond maintenance? i feel like i'm taking crazy pills. this is an mmo.

[IanArgent]

are you going to continue to ignore the fact there are continued development projects in place for expansions beyond maintenance? i feel like i'm taking crazy pills. this is an mmo.

 

I'm filing "additional content development" under maintenance, because if there isn't any of that, there won't be a game by and by. And additional content development (assuming you don't have to develop additional tools) is cheap; compared to developing those tools. SWTOR's content development is a tad more expensive than most because they use a lot more voice acting, but it's still pretty cheap. Writers work for peanuts (there's a glut of them on the market), and even VAs are pretty cheap. BW isn't employing rock-star skill-level writers or programmers, and they aren't employing a lot of them, either.

 

Which is all besides the point - which was "as long as ongoing cost $Y (if you prefer that to maintenance) is less than revenue $X, the game will continue. But nobody's going to pour $Z into developing a new SW MMO if SWTOR tanks."

[Andryah]

nre is a one-time cost to develop.

 

sorry this doesnt apply here as development should be continuous.

 

Why all the casual grenade tossing in your posts? Why not discuss without all the snark and rhetoric? All you are doing is creating drama.

 

NRE is a capital investment and is handled in that manner for US corporations for large development projects. Typically, they cannot capitalize further once the product ships. PERIOD.

 

Ongoing updates and even expacs are generally handled as ongoing operations plan cost and budget.

 

Sometimes an expac may be capitalized and handled in that manner, primarily for tax advantages, if the effort meets legal criteria. But this is becoming less and less common in software products like MMOs where they are in fact more a service then a product in terms of how they are expensed and managed.

Edited March 18, 2016 by Andryah

[Max_Killjoy]

Which is all besides the point - which was "as long as ongoing cost $Y (if you prefer that to maintenance) is less than revenue $X, the game will continue. But nobody's going to pour $Z into developing a new SW MMO if SWTOR tanks."

 

And that's the central point I think some people are missing -- specifically those who keep saying "SWTOR is going to be shut down and then someone will create a new Star Wars MMO." (and maybe it's my imagination, but I almost hear a little hope in their voice, rather than trepidation.)

 

If SWTOR fails, if it falls into the red, then NO ONE is going to have ANY incentive, in the current anemic MMO marketplace, to make another Star Wars MMO.

 

It's SWTOR, or no Star Wars MMO. Players have two choices -- keep playing SWTOR if they get enough "value" out of playing it, or stop playing SWTOR if they don't -- and accept that they won't be playing a Star Wars MMO again for a long time if ever.

[Andryah]

Which is all besides the point - which was "as long as ongoing cost $Y (if you prefer that to maintenance) is less than revenue $X, the game will continue. But nobody's going to pour $Z into developing a new SW MMO if SWTOR tanks."

 

Yep.

 

An excellent reference example of this is DAoC......... small population, 14 years old, still running, owned by EA, and even got a major content update to it's core (PvP on the frontiers) as October 2015.

Edited March 18, 2016 by Andryah

[Pagy]

Which is all besides the point - which was "as long as ongoing cost $Y (if you prefer that to maintenance) is less than revenue $X, the game will continue.

that's rather myopic. what if a new project comes along that promises better use of their resources? what about licencing? there are dozens of factors. this isnt EAs only focus and can decide to close up biofail austin on a whim whether they are in the black or red.

But nobody's going to pour $Z into developing a new SW MMO if SWTOR tanks."

you're assuming people don't make ridiculously stupid business decisions?

 

just look at kotfe

[TUXs]

that's rather myopic. what if a new project comes along that promises better use of their resources? what about licencing? there are dozens of factors. this isnt EAs only focus and can decide to close up biofail austin on a whim whether they are in the black or red.

you're assuming people don't make ridiculously stupid business decisions?

 

just look at kotfe

Don't worry Pagy, people said the same thing about SWG.

 

The next Star Wars "MMO" will be an open world(s) environment and it'll focus more on cross platform sales, expansions, DLC and they'll avoid calling it an "MMO" at all costs.

[Max_Killjoy]

Don't worry Pagy, people said the same thing about SWG.

 

The next Star Wars "MMO" will be an open world(s) environment and it'll focus more on cross platform sales, expansions, DLC and they'll avoid calling it an "MMO" at all costs.

 

If SWTOR tanks, what motivation does anyone have to invest millions in a "failed property" and a "failed game model"?

[TUXs]

If SWTOR tanks, what motivation does anyone have to invest millions in a "failed property" and a "failed game model"?

I don't think SWTOR tanked at all...I think it's far exceeded EA's wildest dreams. I just think EA makes disposable games. They move on to the next project rather than maintaining the old.

[Pagy]

Don't worry Pagy, people said the same thing about SWG.

 

The next Star Wars "MMO" will be an open world(s) environment and it'll focus more on cross platform sales, expansions, DLC and they'll avoid calling it an "MMO" at all costs.

maybe they'll try a battlefron persistent world game; who knows.

 

there will always be star wars games so future is bright

[Khevar]

I don't think SWTOR tanked at all...I think it's far exceeded EA's wildest dreams. I just think EA makes disposable games. They move on to the next project rather than maintaining the old.

I tend to agree with you on this one, which is one of the reasons I don't have a lot of confidence in Visceral's upcoming game.

 

I wonder what could have happened if CDProjekt Red had been the one to make an open-world Star Wars RPG?

[Pagy]

If SWTOR tanks, what motivation does anyone have to invest millions in a "failed property" and a "failed game model"?

i don't see anything as "tanking" just naturally expiring. just like SWG.

 

i think something not lasting forever being labelled as failed is a bit harsh. having said that, i think you need to take a long look at the mmo genre before just trying the exact same thing again. instead of the eq/wow model maybe try something similar but different. especially with consoles.

[DenariusJay]

Well, SWG lasted about 7 years, yes? So I would like to believe theres atleast 2 years left in this game. I can live with that. Since I'm mainly here to ride my new busted up speeder around the fleet - isn't that the true end game anyways?

[lightSaberAddiCt]

Don't worry Pagy, people said the same thing about SWG.

 

The next Star Wars "MMO" will be an open world(s) environment and it'll focus more on cross platform sales, expansions, DLC and they'll avoid calling it an "MMO" at all costs.

 

Totally disagree. Although people seem to fantasize about a sandbox MMO, historically they have not done well. Yes, they maintain a small number of dedicated players, ie: SWG, but sandbox MMOs are not as popular as people who actually like them believe.

 

Not to mention, no matter how much people wish upon a star, SWG will never return, nor a copy of it. It just wasn't profitable.

[nissanmaxima]

You really are fixated on the group queue as the sole indicator of game success / life, aren't you?

 

The problem is, that a lot of people rely on group q's. Not everyone wants to repeat the same planetary heroics or sit on fleet crafting all day. This game is an MMO not MSO. The queue system is supposed to provide that atmosphere but it can not. The casual gamer would like to queue up for a story mode raid, or hard mode FP, but end up sitting the queue system for 3 or 4 hours before it pops. When it does, someone almost always rejects their role, and back to square one. There are just not enough players left to queue, and they wont even consider adding cross realm queue's. Even though a multitude of the other games have that functionality.