DmdShiva Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 i mean seriously, did he say you could win a walker with spending only 750 credits? I mean theoretically it's possible, but the average across the player base is something like 75 M, that means that someone might win one with 750 credits but someone else might win one with 150 M credits.. Actually, the 50% point -- the expenditure that would give you a 50% chance of having won a walker somewhere in that string -- is 51,985,500 credits. At 69,314 plays, the odds of you having failed to get a mount is 50%. Although even at 100,000 plays, you still have more than a 1 in 3 chance of not getting a mount (36.788%), and at 200,000 plays you still have about a 13.5% chance to have not won a mount yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DmdShiva Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 1. The fact is it was Senior crafter/gatherers who became pissed off because nearly anyone could get some serious grade 11 materials without paying the rip-off high prices these people could charge because the GTN was working properly and that was what the market would bear. 4. So they rolled it back and THAT caused all the gold rush players to be torqued off because they thought this gravy train was going to exist FOREVER! And, for both sides, I'm reminded of Heinlein's statement "There has grown up in the minds of certain groups in this country the notion that because a man or corporation has made a profit out of the public for a number of years, the government and the courts are charged with the duty of guaranteeing such profit in the future, even in the face of changing circumstances and contrary public interest. This strange doctrine is not supported by statute nor common law. Neither individuals nor corporations have any right to come into court and ask that the clock of history be stopped, or turned back, for their private benefit." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocketRabbit Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 And, for both sides, I'm reminded of Heinlein's statement "There has grown up in the minds of certain groups in this country the notion that because a man or corporation has made a profit out of the public for a number of years, the government and the courts are charged with the duty of guaranteeing such profit in the future, even in the face of changing circumstances and contrary public interest. This strange doctrine is not supported by statute nor common law. Neither individuals nor corporations have any right to come into court and ask that the clock of history be stopped, or turned back, for their private benefit." Heinlein also said, "No statement should be believed because it is made by an authority." Ahem, Musco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordArtemis Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 (edited) Musco is the mouthpiece. I want to talk to the....ahem....silly person (wanted to say something else) that designed this thing and designed the nerf that followed. That person (or persons) NEEDS to account for their actions IMO. Edited January 25, 2015 by LordArtemis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heat-Wave Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 vegas has 90%..boy are they dumb Actually, all slot machines in Vegas, excluding the nickel slots, average a 95% payback over time... The $5 slots are best at over 98%, the nickels are the worst... this isn't a secret, it is legally regulated and the averages of the various dollar and coin machines are known. What is not know is what specific machine pays the most and least, because within a legal range they can have one machine at 96% and another next to it at 94% and be legal (there are ranges for this). A great deal of time and study by casinos goes into figuring out where to put the high pay machines to attract attention and where people will sit for hours at the low pay machines and keep playing them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordArtemis Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Actually, all slot machines in Vegas, excluding the nickel slots, average a 95% payback over time... The $5 slots are best at over 98%, the nickels are the worst... this isn't a secret, it is legally regulated and the averages of the various dollar and coin machines are known. What is not know is what specific machine pays the most and least, because within a legal range they can have one machine at 96% and another next to it at 94% and be legal (there are ranges for this). A great deal of time and study by casinos goes into figuring out where to put the high pay machines to attract attention and where people will sit for hours at the low pay machines and keep playing them. Can you imagine if the win rate was set up like real slots? Most folks would get nothing, and once in a while one person would hit the motherload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heat-Wave Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 If I'd known that I'd have stayed up all night farming them. I did just that... I highly suspected that Bioware would overshoot as they have done too many times... I played right up until the server went offline, probably missing the very last reward as the machine was spinning as it went to the server selection screen. It was a wise move on my part clearly... I still have a bunch of chips that I haven't played, saving those for whenever they decide enough is enough and they fix this nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heat-Wave Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Can you imagine if the win rate was set up like real slots? Most folks would get nothing, and once in a while one person would hit the motherload. Actually, real slot machines don't work like that, or no one would play them... Most of their pay back comes in the form of small wins, the sound of those coins dropping keeps people playing, and as they come out in small amounts people keep putting them back in. The million dollar prizes are quite rare and require many multiple millions to be put into the machine to work up to them. Of course, they can hit on the very first pull of a new machine, but it is very unlikely. I wouldn't mind a 70% nerf to the origional drop rates, if there were 100/250/500 unit Jawa mat Jackpots from time to time. That would make it interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Choloe Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Let's look at one thing.... "a player will actually only come out a little bit behind" Contraband Slot Machine. 3000 coins (COST: 2.25 Million Credits): (not counting free spins) : 1-[Cartel Market Certificate] 117-[banned Holovids] 71-[Prohibited Medical Supplies] 26-[Confiscated Artwork] 2-[scrap: Scavenged Scrap] 1-[scrap: Jawa Junk] 107-[banned Holovids] 69-[Prohibited Medical Supplies] 27-[Confiscated Artwork] 1-[scrap: Scavenged Scrap] 1-[scrap: Jawa Junk] 98-[banned Holovids] 76-[Prohibited Medical Supplies] 32-[Confiscated Artwork] 1-[scrap: Scavenged Scrap] 2-[Cartel Market Certificate] 118-[banned Holovids] 85-[Prohibited Medical Supplies] 20-[Confiscated Artwork] 2-[scrap: Scavenged Scrap] 2-[scrap: Assorted Droid Parts] 92-[banned Holovids] 80-[Prohibited Medical Supplies] 25-[Confiscated Artwork] 3-[scrap: Scavenged Scrap] 4-[scrap: Assorted Droid Parts] 114-[banned Holovids] 83-[Prohibited Medical Supplies] 29-[Confiscated Artwork] 2-[scrap: Scavenged Scrap] 1-[scrap: Assorted Droid Parts] The Sad Totals: 3-[Cartel Market Certificate] 646-[banned Holovids] 469-[Prohibited Medical Supplies] 154-[Confiscated Artwork] 10-[scrap: Scavenged Scrap] 7-[scrap: Assorted Droid Parts] 1-[scrap: Jawa Junk] TOTAL "VALUE" IN CREDITS RETURNED (Not Including SCRAP/CERTS): 1,177,000 GAIN/(LOSS): (1,073,000) ROFL, Try an almost 50% LOSS, that's not "a little bit" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorgrimLutgen Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 (edited) ..................Up until this point, I never felt that way about Bioware. Sure, I disagreed with some things they do, or questioned designed choices, but I still trusted them as a business with who I conduct transactions. Not now. Probably never again. I don't trust them any more. They can only rely on the nostalgia of things like Baldur's Gate for so long. Half the people employed there were probably not born when that game was released; they are not the company they once were. Musco is just a politicians lackey, he does as he is told. Could he be more transparent? Absolutely! Is he telling downright lies to us over this debacle? A wholehearted yes, there is zero integrity left in them, or, they really are THAT clueless about their own game and have no idea what is happening. Edited January 25, 2015 by ThorgrimLutgen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Transcendent Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Nonsense. 1. The fact is it was Senior crafter/gatherers who became pissed off because nearly anyone could get some serious grade 11 materials without paying the rip-off high prices these people could charge because the GTN was working properly and that was what the market would bear. Nonsense. It wasn't so much the crafters complaining, it was the ones who run crew mission skills (gatherers) primarily as a source of in-game income. Short and simple of it. Most crafters I've spoken to had little issue with it, as we use the materials for crafting. The point being most of the crafters simply gained a CSM and gathered grade 11 materials that way to be on an even footing cost wise. Equally new crafters entered the market as they could afford to craft. Kind of shows how much the CSM imbalanced the market for the gatherers using crew missions to gain grade 11 mats (you know the ones.... with 10+ slicers etc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Choloe Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Nonsense. It wasn't so much the crafters complaining, it was the ones who run crew mission skills (gatherers) primarily as a source of in-game income. Short and simple of it. Most crafters I've spoken to had little issue with it, as we use the materials for crafting. The point being most of the crafters simply gained a CSM and gathered grade 11 materials that way to be on an even footing cost wise. Equally new crafters entered the market as they could afford to craft. Kind of shows how much the CSM imbalanced the market for the gatherers using crew missions to gain grade 11 mats (you know the ones.... with 10+ slicers etc). EXACTLY!!! As a CRAFTER that not only runs MY companions, but my wife runs hers for me, too - those materials were a RELIEF to the 'choice' of paying over 30k per purple! The people that were pissed were the Credit Farmers and Material Barron's.... That is IT... And, BioWare should not give a rats *** about the "in-game economy" - THAT part of the game will CORRECT itself in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordArtemis Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 EXACTLY!!! As a CRAFTER that not only runs MY companions, but my wife runs hers for me, too - those materials were a RELIEF to the 'choice' of paying over 30k per purple! The people that were pissed were the Credit Farmers and Material Barron's.... That is IT... And, BioWare should not give a rats *** about the "in-game economy" - THAT part of the game will CORRECT itself in time. Well....I am not sure I agree with the overall idea that it was harmless. I think over the LONG term....long term mind you...oversupply would have been bad for everyone, certainly more so for some than others. The solution is to increase returns and crit rates on crew missions. That would likely make crafters AND the "barons" happy. The solution for this machine (my opinion only) is to keep all the current numbers in place EXCEPT... Cert rate should be 2% The remaining percentage rolled into loss should be rolled into token drop chance, which is harmless IMO. But most importantly, IMO, crew missions desperately need improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jkopavaswtor Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 What you fail to understand is that this nerf was never about jawa junk. It was always about certificates. They are just hiding behind crafters whining but certificates are the real reason for this nerf. With no certificates from slot machines people have to start buying cartel packs again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tachenko_Yuri Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 (edited) Does this seem like a joke to you? A lot , and I mean a lot, of people have been screwed by this nerf. Several people I know including myself have purchased many cartel packs and spend **** tons of real life money and in game credits to get this damned slot machine, that is now utterly useless! You don't think that is true? Give it a whirl for yourself. I can only think that the only people that would have been complaining are those that may not have had direct access to one of these machines. If people bought entire batches of crates for the slots, and just for the slots... well, lol. GTN wouldn't have costed them one single RL cent. /cue Mmm, yes please, Bioware! Oops, let me rearrange my kneepads. Mmm, glurp glurp, glurp... Good thing I don't have a gag reflex! And someone seems fairly " backside " hurt about all this... And had you spent $50 of real money to obtain it, rather than in game credits, would you still feel the same way? Re-directing you to the answer I gave at the first quote. Edited January 25, 2015 by Tachenko_Yuri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Choloe Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm going to break your reply into parts: Well....I am not sure I agree with the overall idea that it was harmless. I *NEVER* Said it was harmless, but the MOST AFFECTED were the very people that do not "support" the Cartel market, and make the GTN their game. The Credit Farmers (even in the old SWG days; keeping in mind that I've played 2 MMOs my entire life as a full-on Subscriber: Star Wars Galaxies, and SWTOR) use crafting materials and farming "X" in every game in order to sell those on the market (GTN) so they can sell credits to the very people that give them the credits right back for the stuff they are selling. Or actual Material Barron's who farm materials in order to get tons of credits (for what reason? I have no clue; it's not as if CREDITS are hard to get in this game IF YOU ENJOY PLAYING IT; and not the GTN) I think over the LONG term....long term mind you...oversupply would have been bad for everyone, certainly more so for some than others. Which is why I had ZERO problems with raising the cost of the chips, and LOWERING the payout of PURPLE SCRAP as originally stated that was going to happen prior to the NERF. The solution is to increase returns and crit rates on crew missions. That would likely make crafters AND the "barons" happy. Agreed!!! The solution for this machine (my opinion only) is to keep all the current numbers in place EXCEPT... Cert rate should be 2% The remaining percentage rolled into loss should be rolled into token drop chance, which is harmless IMO. But most importantly, IMO, crew missions desperately need improvement. If this and future (if they make them) machines are mainly Reputation Dispensers, then I have zero use for them. I'm already sitting on over 160 Certificates (only about 20 are from the Machine; the rest are from previous Hypercrate/pack purchases), and I'm capped in every reputation except the On-Rails Space Missions and I should Cap Yavin IV this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuriDogshin Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 in that one week of data where the hype was strong ? .... and the accumulated stockpiles of jawa scraps from Conquest were being converted to L11 mats. It's stupid or it's criminal. There's no middle ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DakotaDoc Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'd feel more charitable towards BioWare if they hadn't: -released a massively broken item without running the numbers as to its effect -posted patch notes indicating a moderate nerf to the item -released devastating nerf to the item DIRECTLY CONTRADICTED by the patch notes of the previous day (they said they'd buff the rep item drop rate, but they actually nerfed it slightly) -after forum uproar over nerf, made hasty excuse at a community event but didn't even acknowledge the controversy via any official forum post, thereby losing control of the messaging pooch = screwed // BioWare = losing confidence of fanbase Not trying to make excuses, but. <Rock> Mancuso <Hard Place> The real evil is BIoFail producers and executives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draqsko Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Having a 60% win rate on a slot machine is really high...... Actually it's 45% loss rate, 17% half-loss (green rep chip), and 20% reroll... so it's really a (100-20)-(45+(17/2))) = 26.5% win rate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tsillah Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 (edited) Eric Musco, Bioware's firewall. They are avoiding to talk about the actual Slot Machine performance. It is a stupid toy where prizes are unworthy for the money invested in coins, light years away of the "fun toy" they intended. I can't trust no more in this development team. I like your signature, OP. I also like his signature but probably for a different reason. As far as what Eric said, it fits with what I thought myself. I do not share the OPs distrust of the information or that something is untrue. He has no proof of that either. But what did happen here is that Eric showed that BW has no chess players in their team who can think ahead. It had to go wrong, people had to complain and then they had to investigate it to come to the conclusion that the players were totally right that it was out of control. And this is the real problem, they should've seen that before they brought it out and apparently they didn't. Honestly, it's like lowering he oil prices and being surprised that people have to pay less at the petrol station for their fuel. It's not rocket science. This was glaringly obvious and by his own words they didn't see this completely and utterly obvious point before releasing it into the game. That level of shortsightedness is baffling. Edited January 25, 2015 by Tsillah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tsillah Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Actually it's 45% loss rate, 17% half-loss (green rep chip), and 20% reroll... so it's really a (100-20)-(45+(17/2))) = 26.5% win rate... And how does this win rate compare to the slot machines in Vegas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
znihilist Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 And how does this win rate compare to the slot machines in Vegas? Between 1% (yep 1% loss rate) and 25%, depending on the payout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tsillah Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Between 1% (yep 1% loss rate) and 25%, depending on the payout. And then there is the hold percentage and in the end it means that on average people come out behind rather than ahead. So I have to wonder why BW couldn't figure this out before adding the slot machines to the game. Very dangerous to give a reward for using a slot machine that gives a reward that can be sold for credits at a variable rate at a high frequency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draqsko Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 And how does this win rate compare to the slot machines in Vegas? Just a rough idea.. from a slot in Reno.. http://wizardofodds.com/games/slots/appendix/1/ Based on the approximate weightings the hit frequency is 9.77% and the return is 95.53% with 1 coin and 95.66% with 2 coins. You can't really compare it to real life slots because in real life: Worst win on a slot machine is 2 times your money back. 2nd Worst is 5 times your money back. 3rd Worst is 10 times your money back. 4th Worst is 20 times. 5th Worst is 40 times. Worst win on a CSM is 2/3rds your money back. 2nd Worst is your money back. 3rd Worst is 4/3rds your money back. 4th Worst is a Cert. 5th Worst is the mount (but really this is on the odds of a Vegas payout of 200 times the value of your coin). Here's a hint, the first 3 don't feel like a win even to an addicted gambler, so the reality of the CSM is that the CSM has a win rate of 0.051% versus the slot machine in Vegas having a win rate of 9.77%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tsillah Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Just a rough idea.. from a slot in Reno.. http://wizardofodds.com/games/slots/appendix/1/ You can't really compare it to real life slots because in real life: Worst win on a slot machine is 2 times your money back. 2nd Worst is 5 times your money back. 3rd Worst is 10 times your money back. 4th Worst is 20 times. 5th Worst is 40 times. Worst win on a CSM is 2/3rds your money back. 2nd Worst is your money back. 3rd Worst is 4/3rds your money back. 4th Worst is a Cert. 5th Worst is the mount (but really this is on the odds of a Vegas payout of 200 times the value of your coin). Here's a hint, the first 3 don't feel like a win even to an addicted gambler, so the reality of the CSM is that the CSM has a win rate of 0.051% versus the slot machine in Vegas having a win rate of 9.77%. Sure but the basic principle is that the return has to be lower than the input on average and the win chance has to be enough to keep people interested. That's why both the release and fix are wrong and I again have to conclude that they should have never released slot machines like this in the first place. The slot machine event worked because it had rewards that were not sellable and made for a good money sink with some fun items to win. This slot machine came with rewards that go into the economy...then you have to do your homework a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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