SWTOR revenue down...the causes?

[LordArtemis]

Well folks, it looks like the predictions that caused me to receive so much grief were correct. Revenue has dropped for SWTOR for this quarter compared to last year, and though this does not demonstrate a trend, nor does is spell doom or some other silly notion with respect to the game's health, it is noteworthy IMO.

 

SOURCE

 

Actual SEC report

 

It is important to note that the amount of loss specific to SWTOR is not specified. It could be very small, or very large, that much is not known.

 

And it may speak to what I see as some fundamental flaws in the hybrid model in place at present, as I indicated when I stated that I expected this would happen despite the release of Strongholds. Note that any drop in revenue can be caused by many factors, some out of Bioware's control, and this post only speaks to one possible contributing factor.

 

And that is completely speculative on my part. I have always felt the current monetization system could be improved.

 

Disappointment as to the hook nature of Strongholds could have been a strong contributing factor I admit, despite what I feel is a huge QoL improvement. Perhaps it was not enough.

 

The following is pure speculation on my part, but I would point out some of my concerns....

 

1) Loss of opportunity to capitilize on certain aspects of the game in an ARPPU sense.

 

I think that 12XP proves the popularity that a class core mission XP boost would have had if they had boosted XP boosts into much higher ranges and sold them on the market. I also think that many convenience features, like a group summon, fade to black shuttle travel for all worlds, reduction in crafting times and increase in critical results would have been top sellers.

 

Instead, many of the items on the CM have inflated prices, and IMO this is not sustainable. When you combine the lack of desirable consumables, lost monetizing opportunities and inflated prices on items with appeal you end up creating a situation that discourages ARPPU.

 

I could create a long list of items that should be changed, as well as items I think that should be added to the market, but that is for another discussion, or perhaps later in this discussion.

 

2) Draconian restrictions on F2P and Preferred players that discourages subscriptions and participation instead of encouraging recruitment.

 

Certain restrictions on F2P and Preferred players need to be adjusted and/or lifted, and after thinking about this for a while, I realized the flaw is in the Tiers, not the current system.

 

This system should have 4 tiers, not 2. And this is how I believe it should break down....

 

F2P and Preferred keep the current restrictions in place.

 

Silver - Requires 200.00 of spending or 12 months of subscription - Chat, warzone and flashpoint restrictions removed, up to three companions can craft or mission, credit cap raised to 1 mil, can mail to legacy characters without restrictions.

 

Gold - Requires 400.00 of spending or 24 months of subscription - All restrictions are removed EXCEPT for reduced XP, increased costs, reduced rewards.

 

Note that current restrictions that allow a purchase unlock, like extra character slots, unify colors, display legacy name and the like would remain in place.

 

This would ENCOURAGE F2P and Preferred players to invest more in the game to remove further restrictions, and boost the overall revenue levels IMO.

 

Now, this would have to coincide with additional benefits added to subscriptions, like actual physical subscription rewards (pets, emotes, etc), the ability to earn CC in game using methods other than achievements, the 12XP bonus as a legacy unlock, the ability to que more crafted items and/or que crew missions, reduced costs for legacy unlocks, etc.

3) Providing desirable items that have profit potential in packs instead of direct purchases from the market.

 

Far too many items end up in packs instead of being offered for direct purchase. It would have been smarter, IMO, to provide a direct purchase option at a high price, and reduce the pack prices overall to give a chance to get the item by chance. This is good for players that wish to purchase items on the GTN, but is bad for the game as far as revenue is concerned IMO.

4) Items sold in the market that should be collectable but are not, and others that are collectable when they shouldn't be.

 

I am of the opinion that it is detrimental to revenue when you do not properly set items as collectables. Things like armor and vehicles should ALWAYS be collectable, but in my opinion things like emotes (especially ones that act as regenerative items) should not, and they should instead be cheaper in price.

 

There is no reason, IMO, to have any armor on the market that has mods installed, nor should ANY armor ever be retired from the CM. To retire items from a store is contrary to the very idea of ARPPU.

 

Items can be retired from the game and sold on vendors, but you lose potential revenue by inflating value through absence, and that is just foolish IMO.

 

The embargoed items should remain available, on the current vendors, for CC....or you should be able to buy the certs required for CC. This makes them available to all those that wish to use RMTs to acquire them.

 

 

The most important aspects of an improved ARPPU for the sake of this discussion would be, in short...

 

1) Consumables with wider appeal in the CM

2) Improved F2P hybrid system by adding two more tiers to access

3) Access to more popular pack items as single purchases

4) Properly set collectable states for items in the market

 

Later I would like to add specific items I think that need to be added to the market, but that is it for now.

Edited November 8, 2014 by LordArtemis

[Lotharofxev]

2) Draconian restrictions on F2P and Preferred players that discourages subscriptions and participation instead of encouraging recruitment.

 

Given that the parent company has already said the majority ("overwhelming") of Cartel Packs purchased come from subscribers - why on earth would you allow people even more subscriber type benefits? Unless your goal was to eliminate subscriptions altogether and make the entire game P2P.

[Trentest]

The cause is, honestly, most likely because there's been very little big content over the year.

 

By big content, I'm talking either a large expansion, or just new PvE and PvP operations/warzones.

 

I'm pretty sure that, when SoR releases, SWTOR revenue will increase by a lot, and for a long time too.

[LordArtemis]

Given that the parent company has already said the majority ("overwhelming") of Cartel Packs purchased come from subscribers - why on earth would you allow people even more subscriber type benefits? Unless your goal was to eliminate subscriptions altogether and make the entire game P2P.

 

I think I pretty clearly enumerated the whys and hows. It is clear you oppose any kind of measures to increase F2P participation, as you and I have had this discussion in the past.

 

As I indicated earlier, and correctly so I might add, subscribers are NOT providing the proper level of revenue. Revenue should rise, not fall substantially as it has. That is always the preferred goal.

 

Content droughts can cause a lack of interest naturally, but so can a lack of desirable consumables in the CM.

 

If someone does not like the idea of F2P but yet only pays 15 a month, IMO they are part of the problem.

Edited November 8, 2014 by LordArtemis

[LordArtemis]

The cause is, honestly, most likely because there's been very little big content over the year.

 

By big content, I'm talking either a large expansion, or just new PvE and PvP operations/warzones.

 

I'm pretty sure that, when SoR releases, SWTOR revenue will increase by a lot, and for a long time too.

 

Thats fair, and you could be completely right of course. But I still think monetization requires some improvement in this game.

[DarkDisturbed]

Lack of content is the main cause imo. I've seen so many guilds fold in the last year, and most raid guilds (bar super big guilds) are still constantly battling inactivity. We've went from 130 active accounts -> 89 without losing a single member. Hoping things pick up again after 3.0 because despite what Infernixx and the Bioware Defense Force™ spout, queue times have been noticeably longer in the previous months. Edited November 8, 2014 by DarkDisturbed

[AndasKastor]

If someone does not like the idea of F2P but yet only pays 15 a month, IMO they are part of the problem.

 

Bummer, I'm part of the problem. I don't like F2P in my games and when I took a break I only logged in once for about 10 minutes just to see if I could. I still have 7700 or so cartel coins accumulated from the subscriber stipend each month.

[AgentMountaineer]

Stopped reading after the fifth, "IMO." After one or two 'IMOs" I still hoped the opinion might change to somebody else's. Sadly, after the fifth "IMO" this post clearly wasn't representing anybody else's opinion but the OPs so I lost interest.

[Tachenko_Yuri]

Might be a well presented, written, and laid out thread, but if OP, or anyone else, is expecting something amongst the lines of

 

 

Hey, I'm mr ( some folk from EA/marketing ) Thanks for all your notices and we'll be considering them, and most likely going to implement them soon™, thx again !

 

 

They may be in for a disappointment.

 

Good or bad that it may be, they got their own marketing department for all of this. And no thread, no matter on what grade or neatness and tidiness, is likely to be taken into consideration.

 

Specially on a weekend.

Edited November 8, 2014 by Tachenko_Yuri

[ScarletBlaze]

Another idea,

 

Separate the stronghold items from the packs and either make (1) them into packs themselves or (2) sell them separately on the cartel market. I know some who would buy it this way but they are unwilling to buy the packs with armor, etc in it as there have been times in the packs there is no armor they are interested in so they considered it a waste of cartel coins.

 

Just my idea.

[TheNahash]

This

2) Draconian restrictions on F2P and Preferred players that discourages subscriptions and participation instead of encouraging recruitment.

 

doesn't really make sense.

 

Gold - Requires 400.00 of spending or 24 months of subscription - All restrictions are removed EXCEPT for reduced XP, increased costs, reduced rewards.

 

So basically, anyone who played for two years or spend $400 on the cartel market gets to play the game for free from now on.

Because let's face it, anyone who's played for two years has already seen all the class stories there are to see, and he's basically staying around for endgame PVE and/or PVP.

If you remove all of the restrictions that make subscribing worth it, what's the point in keeping a subscription plan anymore?

[Sangrar]

I think revenue is down simply because we are in one of those lull moments where there is nothing new at this moment, at the most some people are getting ready for the content we know is coming but its still not yet here so people have less reason to want to buy more stuff, some people were holding off on purchasing the expansion too until after November 2nd passed so they wouldn't be stuck with the 12xp boost, so that could be it too.

[LordArtemis]

Stopped reading after the fifth, "IMO." After one or two 'IMOs" I still hoped the opinion might change to somebody else's. Sadly, after the fifth "IMO" this post clearly wasn't representing anybody else's opinion but the OPs so I lost interest.

 

Shenanigans.

[LordArtemis]

This

 

 

doesn't really make sense.

 

 

 

So basically, anyone who played for two years or spend $400 on the cartel market gets to play the game for free from now on.

Because let's face it, anyone who's played for two years has already seen all the class stories there are to see, and he's basically staying around for endgame PVE and/or PVP.

If you remove all of the restrictions that make subscribing worth it, what's the point in keeping a subscription plan anymore?

 

There would have to be a point.

 

The point would be you get the full XP, proper prices, and the added benefits specified in the OP. I indicated that any change like this would require additional benefits to subscriptions.

[LordArtemis]

Another idea,

 

Separate the stronghold items from the packs and either make (1) them into packs themselves or (2) sell them separately on the cartel market. I know some who would buy it this way but they are unwilling to buy the packs with armor, etc in it as there have been times in the packs there is no armor they are interested in so they considered it a waste of cartel coins.

 

Just my idea.

 

Thats a very good idea. Certainly another way to increase revenue with a desirable item.

[Max_Killjoy]

Maybe their revenue is down because of people who actually pay for access to the full game over and over and over every month are being called "part of the problem".

[LordArtemis]

Maybe their revenue is down because of people who actually pay for access to the full game over and over and over every month are being called "part of the problem".

 

You might be right Max.

 

But I suspect you are not.

[Jrr_hypernova]

To your points you know the booster pack method has been proven to make more sales than selling individuality right watch these videos.

 

 

[Alec_Fortescue]

They show revenue down cuz people complain that they're not putting enough money into the game.

[LordArtemis]

They show revenue down cuz people complain that they're not putting enough money into the game.

 

You might be right Alec...

 

 

But I suspect you are not.

 

Shenanigans.

[LordArtemis]

To your points you know the booster pack method has been proven to make more sales than selling individuality right watch these videos.

 

 

 

Fair enough, but the availability of one does not automatically exclude the other.

[mrkmcknz]

Anyone who didn't expect this is a moron.

 

Biggest factor here is out of EA and Bioware control.

 

Wildstar and ESO launched in this reporting period and I was one of those players who paid to try those games and unsubbed here. I'm back as are many others. For all the flaws in SWTOR I think that without knowing just how much revenue is down the story here could in fact be positive.

[LordArtemis]

Anyone who didn't expect this is a moron.

 

Biggest factor here is out of EA and Bioware control.

 

Wildstar and ESO launched in this reporting period and I was one of those players who paid to try those games and unsubbed here. I'm back as are many others. For all the flaws in SWTOR I think that without knowing just how much revenue is down the story here could in fact be positive.

 

Fair enough, except for the moron part. There were quite a few folks that felt revenue would be higher over last year due to strongholds, and strongly criticized those that disagreed. That does not make them morons IMO...they could have simply overestimated the power of strongholds to compensate for a likely dip in revenue.

[AelixVII]

Pre-expansion slump & players hitting a point where they can't just keep shelling out cash each time there's a cartel shop update and yeah this is old-ish data from the summer when competitor mmos launched. Edited November 8, 2014 by AelixVII

[Oyranos]

The revenue dropped because 2-3 mmos came out. Elder scrolls online that has a name... skyrim sold 20-30-40 millions? Wildstar and now the wow expansion.

 

But I believe, neither the less, that the new expansion, DID much better than MAKEB expansion pre-orders.

Edited November 8, 2014 by Oyranos