The sky isn't falling. A numbers based view.

[Andryah]

Wasn't just the contract developers directly responsible for the RoR Expansion. They let go some longtime staff including some CM's that have been around for years.

 

Basic business. A notable number of new MMOs released over the last year.. and they each have taken a toll on Turbines customer base. How much... only they know. But like every other company... if their business declines, they must cut expenses to offset lost revenue and remain profitable.

[Andryah]

Yup. Soon all the numbers will become meaningless as every person who has ever played the game will slip into their reporting of "accounts".

 

Learn the business model and the terms before going into a hyperbolic orbit TUXs. You know better then what you are saying... so I'm not sure whats up with you today.

 

Not to derail the thread topic.... but since the game moves to Freemium within a couple weeks... business terms and metrics for Freemium play models is now relevent.... so here you go.

 

MAU becomes the key metric population metrice once the model flips.

 

However, as players, we care more about DAU.

 

ARPU becomes the key financial performance metric. However, the total health of the business is determined via CAO, which we will never see enough detailed data to see as users.

 

Freemium Business Model Terms:

ARPPU

Average Revenue Per Paying User.

 

ARPU

Average Revenue per User.

 

Conversion Rate

The number or percentage of users that have shifted from non-paying to a paying status.

 

Cost per Acquisition (CPA )/Customer Acquisition Cost

Cost of acquiring leads or customers. CPA is calculated by dividing the cost of advertising by the number of gamers/

players for a given period of time.

 

CUSTOMER ACQUISITION OPTIMI ZATION (CAO)

Using metrics such as stickiness, retention, ARPU, ARPPU, MAU, DAU and conversion to determine the optimal

customer acquisition techniques.

 

Daily Active Users (DAU )

The number of unique users that have used an application at least once over the course of a day.

 

FREEMIUM: also called free to play (F2P)

Offering a game, product or service free of charge (such as software, web services or other) while charging a premium for advanced features, functionality, or related products such as virtual goods and services.

 

MICROTRSANACTIONS

Low value transactions at a high volume.

 

MID-CORE

Casual games created for the enthusiast game players.

 

MMO

Massively Multiplayer Online game where millions of players interact in a game environment.

 

MONTHLY ACTIVE USERS(MAU )

The number of unique users that have used an application at least once over the course of a month.

 

PAY TO PLAY (P2P)

Users must pay to play game. A limited trial is often used to hook players.

 

RETENTION

Percentage of a given player segment who remains engaged over a given time. Especially important when evaluating customer acquisition techniques.

 

VIRTUAL GOODS

In-game items or game-related services, such as a virtual currency or temporary subscription, that enable or enhance game play.

[CosmicKat]

If he does, he is required to state so when making analysis such at this public.

 

As for his numbers, the purpose behind those numbers is to create a view of "headroom" in the model, as a platform for the balance of the article.

 

I don't believe any MMO will get an MAU of 10M in this era of MMOs.... but I do believe they can continually process new customers in/out of the active player base pretty much forever (given the TAM, total available market, open to them).

 

But regardless if any of us buy into the numbers presented in the analysts sketch of the future.... Freemium is very much the wave of the future for MMOs... and it is the right direction to go for the game producers. SWTOR moving to that model quicker rather then slower is a good business decision, regardless what the various armchairs in the forum say to the contrary.

 

Umm, an armchair analyst critqueing other armchair analysts, and offering a definitive statement of the success of the F2P plan in the same sentence is rather ironic.

 

None of us have a clue whether it will be a success or not. About the only certainty, based on historical precedence, is that F2P will be neither a disaster nor a miracle cure. A F2P plan has only ever saved middling, small-budget and small-expectation games, or games long past their prime. It's never been attempted on a premium title, ever.

[Andryah]

My guesstimate was based on over 90% server contraction, and servers currently populated at about the same level they were a month post-launch.

 

Once again.. you want to count servers, rather then populations (numbers, not load levels) on the remaining servers. This is where you keep going wrong with the numbers you are tossing around CK. Which is why many won't take anything you say in this discussion seriously.

Edited October 29, 2012 by Andryah

[Andryah]

F2P plan has only ever saved middling, small-budget and small-expectation games, or games long past their prime. It's never been attempted on a premium title, ever.

 

You do understand that more then 60% of MMO revenue now comes from various free/freemium deployments? AND F2P revenue is growing twice as fast per year as subscriber revenue in MMOs. By 2015 it is expected to be 85% of total market revenue.

 

Do some research before guessing.

Edited October 29, 2012 by Andryah

[TUXs]

Learn the business model and the terms before going into a hyperbolic orbit TUXs. You know better then what you are saying... so I'm not sure whats up with you today.

 

Not to derail the thread topic.... but since the game moves to Freemium within a couple weeks... business terms and metrics for Freemium play models is now relevent.... so here you go.

 

MAU becomes the key metric population metrice once the model flips.

 

However, as players, we care more about DAU.

 

ARPU becomes the key financial performance metric. However, the total health of the business is determined via CAO, which we will never see enough detailed data to see as users.

 

Freemium Business Model Terms:

 

Nothing is "up with me" today, I was simply stating that soon, the game will no longer be measured by "subscribers", which you seem to agree with. Are you under the impression you'll somehow see these numbers? I sincerely doubt we will.

[Foobert]

Learn the business model and the terms before going into a hyperbolic orbit TUXs. You know better then what you are saying... so I'm not sure whats up with you today.

 

Not to derail the thread topic.... but since the game moves to Freemium within a couple weeks... business terms and metrics for Freemium play models is now relevent.... so here you go.

 

MAU becomes the key metric population metrice once the model flips.

 

However, as players, we care more about DAU.

 

ARPU becomes the key financial performance metric. However, the total health of the business is determined via CAO, which we will never see enough detailed data to see as users.

 

Freemium Business Model Terms:

 

And the high-ARRPU customers are known as whales. The operative activity for the developer switching to the freemium model will be to acquire and maintain the whales. Whale population tends to increase linearly with MAU, but they may be largely hidden from the rest of us (because lets face it, the majority of forum users are here to QQ about *something*). Whales may also be affected in this game, like in STO, by the specific IP. Whales also existed during P2P (since they exist independent of business model), but the point of switching to the freemium model is to increase ARPU through converting previous and existing players that may not have been P2P whales (since the actual market for them to purchase items was limited to account purchasing before F2P) as well as acquiring new whales through expanding the game's market itself.

[Andryah]

Aion may have 'tanked' in the west, but in the East it was a massive success, stealing many of Lineage & Lineage 2's players.

 

Please note: all of Tims analysis is on "West". East is excluded, and given the very different methods of access and marketing... Tim's approach is appropriate. The majority of MMO players are in fact in Asia. However, the majority of earned revenue from MMOs is in the west (disproportionately so in fact) because is it very inexpensive free or token access models in Asia.

 

East and West markets always need to be analyzed/discussed separately IMO because they are radically different markets, business models, and demographics.

Edited October 29, 2012 by Andryah

[Andryah]

Nothing is "up with me" today, I was simply stating that soon, the game will no longer be measured by "subscribers", which you seem to agree with. Are you under the impression you'll somehow see these numbers? I sincerely doubt we will.

 

Yes, I believe we will see a variety of metrics under their new model. Give us revenue and average revenue per active account and we can figure out how many active accounts they have even if they don't say so. Or any variation of two pieces of data and we can figure out the rest.

 

I don't think they will split out subs vs freebs, but there is no reason to. Maybe with the game moving off of a subscription only model, the radical fixation on subscription numbers by the players will disolve over time.

 

As for DAU, as players, we can discuss and track that ourselves to a good degree.

Edited October 29, 2012 by Andryah

[CosmicKat]

You do understand that more then 60% of MMO revenue now comes from various free/freemium deployments? AND F2P revenue is growing twice as fast per year as subscriber revenue in MMOs. By 2015 it is expected to be 85% of total market revenue.

 

Do some research before guessing.

 

I'm glad we're in agreement that MMO's today are crap that isn't worth $15/month to most of their intended audience!

[Andryah]

And the high-ARRPU customers are known as whales. The operative activity for the developer switching to the freemium model will be to acquire and maintain the whales. Whale population tends to increase linearly with MAU, but they may be largely hidden from the rest of us (because lets face it, the majority of forum users are here to QQ about *something*). Whales may also be affected in this game, like in STO, by the specific IP. Whales also existed during P2P (since they exist independent of business model), but the point of switching to the freemium model is to increase ARPU through converting previous and existing players that may not have been P2P whales (since the actual market for them to purchase items was limited to account purchasing before F2P) as well as acquiring new whales through expanding the game's market itself.

 

Whales are nice, but you need diversity in your business model, so I don't see them overly fixating on Whales to be honest. But they will have an ARPU model they will be seeking. Analysis of different games by people who research games for a living generally show a skewed bell curve distribution of players in on the non-subscribing side of a dual access model. The whales offset the true freeloaders, with the ratio being about 1 whale for every 4 freeloaders in most games. And there are whales and then there are whales. The true whales are a very small percentage of the player base.

[Andryah]

I'm glad we're in agreement that MMO's today are crap that isn't worth $15/month to most of their intended audience!

 

We are not in agreement at all, given the ARPU for freemium MMOs is pretty close to the $15 in most cases.

 

AND... you are clearly paying a subscription for this game... so .......

Edited October 29, 2012 by Andryah

[LordArtemis]

It is indisputable that F2P revenue tends to become the primary source of income in games that convert to F2P. This has been demonstrated multiple times by Dev statements, industry analysis and earnings reports.

 

In fact, in most F2P games that have a hybrid design historically the focus is shifted from sub retention (though it still remains important) to F2P profit potential.

Edited October 29, 2012 by LordArtemis

[Soluss]

Wherever you read that I wouldn't ever go again.

 

Bioware has already made its initial investment back with retail box sales, let alone 6-7 months of subscriptions according to their Initial investor report. Which by all means is the only accurate representation of the financial state of a company due to other sources not having access to CFO's files.

 

You have to remember EA and LucasArts also invested heavily into this game. Likely with their investments being in the Subscription revenue percentages returns. So Lucas Arts and EA may not have made their money back but Bioware did.

 

LucasArts could flush their initial Investment down the toilet and not be hurt for cash, and EA makes enough money from TheSims to buy a small country. So even if this game doesn't make exorbitant profit margins EA will likely still host servers since they are relatively low cost to maintain.

 

All in all Bioware the developer got their money back and that means development will not be hindered, just don't expect EA or Lucas to shell out more money. Which is fine since "Expansions" never cost as much to produce.

 

Wait, what? You do realize that Bioware isnt really a company anymore right? Its owned by EA. The 2 are not seperate.

[Soluss]

Turbine laid off those employees because their work was done. Happens frequently when a developer releases a new expansion. All those people needed for coding and development are no longer needed. It's like seasonal help for developers. Why keep the lawn guys when it's winter?

 

Warner bros didnt just cut some extra Lotro staff. They restructured Turbine as a whole. Turbine is responsible for more then just Lotro.

[Soluss]

Hate to break it to you but the post rate here is dropping pretty radically as well. Posts used to disappear off the first page in a couple of hours without constant replies, now... not so much.

 

This game is a year old now. It "failed" to live up to expectations and it hasn't been modified, tweaked, or changed in any significantly fundamental way. When F2P launches it will be the same game it was when it launched. That game did not knock anyone's socks off so why is there optimism of it being TOR's saviour?

 

It's no longer new. Yes, bug and feature-wise there have been improvements but this is the same game that failed to be a blockbuster a year ago. If the only thing that can salvage your product launch is to give it away for free, your product is not what people want.

 

You arent breaking anything to me, lol. You are preaching to the choir.

[Soluss]

If you are going to quote statistics that we have numbers for at least use the right ones. 2.47 million boxes claimed to be sold vs 500k to 1 million active subs is a range from 20-40% after doing the calculation. By severely underestimating that you are showing your own bias.

 

While that data is currently correct, save the rest of your statement for when this game is past the peak sub figure. You are looking at peak sub figures in the data for ToR. If I looked at the peak sub figure for every MMO and stopped there then the retention rate would show alot higher.

[Soluss]

If this game doesn't have more than 100k paying subs by then, then that means Tera will be shut down because it would have 2k subs. GW2 would be dead etc. Hate to break it to you troll but this game still outsubs most of the others except WoW and I believe EvE. It has way more than Rift, Aion, LotR, Tera, Warhammer, EQ2, EQ1, etc. GW2 has hit a huge decline of people logging in also. If you say it hasn't then you are blinded. GW2 hit its peak fast and after a month has dropped significantly.

 

Currently correct. Try checking those numbers when the game is older. You are looking at the peak 6 month sub number for ToR and claiming victory against MMOs that are years old and in some cases 8 to 12 years old. If this game last 8-12 years, it isnt going to have very many subs by then either.

 

I was on Tat the other day and still has 85-100 people on it. I logged on the first time in awhile for GW2 and it was dead in the starter area and dead in the 1-30 areas. Logged out 10 mins later of boredom.

 

A whole 85-100 people on it? Wow, Im impressed. GW2- starter areas are dead. Look at the starter areas in ToR after 2 months, they were dead as well. It wasnt until later when people were creating alts mammy that it started to pick up. How many people were in GW2 upper tier zones or around the holiday event that they are having or in the WvW that the game was based around?

So come 2013 hope you are still here so I can say, "I told you so."

 

As long as you are still here so I can return the favor

p.s. LotR says hi and their f2p and numbers increased a lot and still increasing.

 

Hate to break it to ya but Lotro is not increasing numbers. They are declining.

[Deltabord]

Hate to break it to ya but Lotro is not increasing numbers. They are declining.

 

Ummm, no? I logged into LOTRO today, and there were just as many online, if not more, as there were a year ago. Hanging out in Bree, checking out the digs in Moria or just chillin' in Ettenmore. So, LOTRO is doing just fine. I had enough points to buy the expansion and that will be a blast,

 

So, just keep on thinking you are relevant and have a good bead on things - all the more power to you.

Reality speaks for itself.

[Soluss]

Ummm, no? I logged into LOTRO today, and there were just as many online, if not more, as there were a year ago. Hanging out in Bree, checking out the digs in Moria or just chillin' in Ettenmore. So, LOTRO is doing just fine. I had enough points to buy the expansion and that will be a blast,

 

So, just keep on thinking you are relevant and have a good bead on things - all the more power to you.

Reality speaks for itself.

 

What you are whitnessing on your server is no indication of what we are talking about. If it was then I could say ToR is dying quickly.

 

Turbine is undergoing restructuring and layoffs. It is not expansion cut slack. Some long term members have been cut. If it was increasing in numbers then they wouldnt be cutting people.

 

Keep on thinking im relevant? Thats a rude and ignorant statement. Im a human being and just as relevant as you are. I cant wait for the day that you come crashing back down to the real reality.

[Andryah]

What you are whitnessing on your server is no indication of what we are talking about. If it was then I could say ToR is dying quickly.

 

Turbine is undergoing restructuring and layoffs. It is not expansion cut slack. Some long term members have been cut. If it was increasing in numbers then they wouldnt be cutting people.

 

Keep on thinking im relevant? Thats a rude and ignorant statement. Im a human being and just as relevant as you are. I cant wait for the day that you come crashing back down to the real reality.

 

I agree that LoTRO has been hit hard by the flurry of new games this last year. It remains to be seen if veterans return to it in large numbers or not. It has the virtue of being a lore that many people still love and want to experience. I still play it as well as play SWTOR and TSW.

[Lord_Ravenhurst]

I still play it as well as play SWTOR and TSW.

 

Yay! Those three are the best MMO choices on the market, besides EvE.

Same here.

 

altough I´m a little hyped up by Archeage, Star Citizen and World of Darkness, but that will take many months until I can try any of these out

[Tim-ONeil]

I don't believe numbers released by people who stand to make money by inflating those numbers.

 

My guesstimate was based on over 90% server contraction, and servers currently populated at about the same level they were a month post-launch. I thought I was being generous.

 

And you've just revealed that you are not going to be able to look at this objectively because you 'know' more than they do and can't trust them. Do you trust Blizzard? They claimed to have lost 1.2 million subs in 2011, do you think they lost 3-5 million instead? This line of reasoning has no place here.

 

Thanks for reading the thread at least, it wasn't intended for people that are so mistrustful of the system they can't even accept SEC reported data.

 

Call me a fanboy if you wish but if they come out and say on Wednesday that the negative trend is continuing I'll believe them at least and reassess my opinion based on that. I will also believe them if they say they grew the sub base.

Edited October 30, 2012 by Tim-ONeil

[Thylbanus]

And you've just revealed that you are not going to be able to look at this objectively because you 'know' more than they do and can't trust them. Do you trust Blizzard? They claimed to have lost 1.2 million subs in 2011, do you think they lost 3-5 million instead? This line of reasoning has no place here.

 

Thanks for reading the thread at least, it wasn't intended for people that are so mistrustful of the system they can't even accept SEC reported data.

 

Call me a fanboy if you wish but if they come out and say on Wednesday that the negative trend is continuing I'll believe them at least and reassess my opinion based on that. I will also believe them if they say they grew the sub base.

 

I know you don't like making predictions, but just for kicks, what do you think the loss (or gain, maybe?) will be? I'll put a bet on 200k loss. I've lost 30% of my guild and I'm using that as a basis. Just a guess, but I'd like to see who is closest. If I'm right that would put it around 700k subs. Anyone can guess. I'd like to see, since the report is so close.

Edited October 30, 2012 by Thylbanus

[CosmicKat]

And you've just revealed that you are not going to be able to look at this objectively because you 'know' more than they do and can't trust them. Do you trust Blizzard? They claimed to have lost 1.2 million subs in 2011, do you think they lost 3-5 million instead? This line of reasoning has no place here.

 

Thanks for reading the thread at least, it wasn't intended for people that are so mistrustful of the system they can't even accept SEC reported data.

 

Call me a fanboy if you wish but if they come out and say on Wednesday that the negative trend is continuing I'll believe them at least and reassess my opinion based on that. I will also believe them if they say they grew the sub base.

 

Umm, actually I am being objective and not basing my opinions on data provided by the parties in question. It's simple. A game inflating their numbers to look more popular than they are is good for business, therefore the numbers must be taken with several grains of salt.

 

SEC reported data? The same SEC that was responsible for regulating and tracking the solvency of banks and investment firms? What could go wrong there?