Subs down 25%

[GalacticKegger]

They started losing subs before TOR 's release date was even announced. Sure the release of TOR made them lose some more subs. And the truth is, it is a very competitive market for games right now. But the fact how well they maintained thier total sub base to over 10 million even today..is a testiment they are smart cookies.

Or lucky cookies. Timing is everything and I doubt we'll see another MMO window of opportunity like that open up again - at least in our lifetimes. Edited May 10, 2012 by GalacticKegger

[noladev]

TOR's budget is no longer an issue. For several reasons. 1) last year's conference call verified TOR needsonly 500k subs for a year to make back the investment and development cost. 2) TOR needs only 1 million subs for a profit that's "nothing to write home about" (EA's words, not mine). 3) TOR is not only "on target" with subs, but is "very profitable". (Again, EA's words, not mine.)

 

In fact, read the whole document. EA is NOT WORRIED about TOR's income and potential because there's nothing to be worried about! Haters are calling it "downplaying bad news". It's not. It's "not worried because it's working". Again, EA's sentiment, not mine.

 

I think where you and I differ is that I expect EA to paint as rosy a picture as possible without outright lying.

 

Your expectation seems to be that EA's quarterly report would have all the candor of their private board room discussions.

EA is doing what they are supposed to do. Its called managing stakeholder expectations. From what I can tell, you have been managed quite well here. No offense.

 

The data is far more important than EA's interpretation of it. If you think questioning a company's rosy interpretations of their own performance is being a "hater" I have to ask you where the heck have you been for the last decade?

[Unruhe]

Not at all. Only that it's typical, and that, mathematically speaking, TOR is above that typical curve. Is it a good thing? Imho, despite the fact that it's normal, no, I don't think it's a good thing. But that's on the players, not the developer.

 

The 1.3 million is including people on free game time. Free game time given out by EAware. I'm sure if Rift said "come back for 30 free days" at its 6 month mark, Trion could report more than 250k subscribers at the time.

[JeramieCrowe]

I think where you and I differ is that I expect EA to paint as rosy a picture as possible without outright lying.

 

Blizzard does that. SOE does that. Arenanet does that. <insert developer> does that. Which means it's still an even playing field.

 

Your expectation seems to be that EA's quarterly report would have all the candor of their private board room discussions.

EA is doing what they are supposed to do. Its called managing stakeholder expectations. From what I can tell, you have been managed quite well here. No offense.

 

None taken. You misunderstand me, though. That's why I compare to the overall curve of all MMOs, because every MMO developer does exactly the same thing EA does. Even playing field. And if it's all even, it can be disregarded since the floor is the floor. You get me?

 

The data is far more important than EA's interpretation of it. If you think questioning a company's rosy interpretations of their own performance is being a "hater" I have to ask you where the heck have you been for the last decade?

 

I've been advocating all along that NO ONE use anyone else's "interpretation" of it other than their own. I've been advocating, however, that you all take in the BIG PICTURE, which is more than EA, more than BioWare, more than WoW. Indeed, the picture encompasses the ENTIRE industry! Only when you can step back and look at the impact of this news with the focus of the entire industry, will it be appropriately in perspective.

 

Question all you want. Hell, even I do. But do so with the whole picture, not with personal feelings with TOR itself, or BioWare, or EA, or with any emotion at all!

[Squatdog_nz]

TOR's budget is no longer an issue. For several reasons. 1) last year's conference call verified TOR needsonly 500k subs for a year to make back the investment and development cost. 2) TOR needs only 1 million subs for a profit that's "nothing to write home about" (EA's words, not mine). 3) TOR is not only "on target" with subs, but is "very profitable". (Again, EA's words, not mine.)

 

In fact, read the whole document. EA is NOT WORRIED about TOR's income and potential because there's nothing to be worried about! Haters are calling it "downplaying bad news". It's not. It's "not worried because it's working". Again, EA's sentiment, not mine.

 

I'm not "white knighting" because I'm only helping to show what was reported without offering my own opinion of it. Trying to put it into objective perspective amid all this pessimism. Which is subjective.

 

If stating "reality" is viewed as "white knighting", perhaps the question is, "why are objective statements viewed as 'white knighting'"?!

 

Food for thought...

 

No, normal people are smart enough to realise that it's panic stations at EA as SWTOR slowly slides into the toilet and that the quarterly report was very disingenuous, to the point of being intellectually dishonest.

 

-The number of 'active subscribers' cynically includes trial accounts and the large number of people currently playing on the month's free gametime, that by SHEER COINCIDENCE was introduced immediately prior to the quarterly report. Meanwhile, WoW has stringent guidelines whereby only paying accounts active within the last 30 days are counted as 'active subscriptions'.

 

-The number of subscriptions also includes the people who reactivated their account for the massively-hyped Jesus Patch in April and are already looking at cancelling.

 

 

 

Basically, this is the beginning of the end for SWTOR and once the big-name MMOs hit later this year, the game will be lucky to turn a profit, no matter how much EA fudge the statistics.

[JeramieCrowe]

The 1.3 million is including people on free game time. Free game time given out by EAware. I'm sure if Rift said "come back for 30 free days" at its 6 month mark, Trion could report more than 250k subscribers at the time.

 

Yes, it may very well be. However, I think you might be overestimating how many are on free game time at the moment. I'm not, not is anyone who purchased 6 months.

[JeramieCrowe]

No, normal people are smart enough to realise that it's panic stations at EA as SWTOR slowly slides into the toilet and that the quarterly report was very disingenuous, to the point of being intellectually dishonest.

 

-The number of 'active subscribers' cynically includes trial accounts and the large number of people currently playing on the month's free gametime, that by SHEER COINCIDENCE was introduced immediately prior to the quarterly report. Meanwhile, WoW has stringent guidelines whereby only paying accounts active within the last 30 days are counted as 'active subscriptions'.

 

-The number of subscriptions also includes the people who reactivated their account for the massively-hyped Jesus Patch in April and are already looking at cancelling.

 

 

 

Basically, this is the beginning of the end for SWTOR and once the big-name MMOs hit later this year, the game will be lucky to turn a profit, no matter how much EA fudge the statistics.

 

Again...even playing field. If you think EA is doing anything different, you need to get out more.

[Frostvein]

TOR's budget is no longer an issue.

 

Wrong.

 

This game had at the least double and by some estimate triple and quadruple the development funds of WoW and several other Major triple A releases with an amazingly strong IP. There is a level of expectation that comes with that. Not only didn't they meet it, they fell far short. No, expecting this game to have modern MMO features - and not even all of them! is not being unreasonable.

 

Tera, some obscure far east game with no major IP to speak of, blows this game out of the water in nearly every facet. This has companions and voiced over quests. After that? Nothing worth mentioning.

 

Lets get real here. Strip off the IP and you have some generic WoW clone that wouldn't have moved more then 250 thousand units.

 

Yes, Jeramie. You love this game. Great. That doesn't change the fact that as an MMO, it is a continual disappointment. This is why so many people are pissed and leaving. The few who swear up and down that this game is great refuse to acknowledge that it is severely lacking on the MMO front. Its tough to hear bad things about something you care so passionately about, but this is the truth.

 

The game isn't going to die. People will still play and love this game. Its just not and never going to be a widely popular game because it just isn't a good MMO.

[Squatdog_nz]

Again...even playing field. If you think EA is doing anything different, you need to get out more.

 

Uhhhhhh....what?

 

Activision SPECIFICALLY excludes trial accounts and promotional gametime from their 'active subscriptions' figure, while EA cynically includes them to inflate the numbers. How is that a 'level playing field'?

[JeramieCrowe]

Wrong.

 

This game had at the least double and by some estimate triple and quadruple the development funds of WoW and several other Major triple A releases with an amazingly strong IP. There is a level of expectation that comes with that. Not only didn't they meet it, they fell far short. No, expecting this game to have modern MMO features - and not even all of them! is not being unreasonable.

 

Wow. You mean it cost 4 times more to make a game in 2011 than it did in 2004?! Say it ain't so!! Oh...wait... it's also making 4 times more than WoW did in 2004.... Hmmmm...

 

Tera, some obscure far east game with no major IP to speak of, blows this game out of the water in nearly every facet. This has companions and voiced over quests. After that? Nothing worth mentioning.

 

Quantifiable empirical data, please? That's what I've provided. You're turn. After all, I'm not providing my own opinion here, yet you seem to responding with opinion....

 

Lets get real here. Strip off the IP and you have some generic WoW clone that wouldn't have moved more then 250 thousand units.

 

Yes. Let's get real here. As in linked empirical data. Thanks.

 

Yes, Jeramie. You love this game. Great. That doesn't change the fact that as an MMO, it is a continual disappointment. This is why so many people are pissed and leaving. The few who swear up and down that this game is great refuse to acknowledge that it is severely lacking on the MMO front. Its tough to hear bad things about something you care so passionately about, but this is the truth.

 

Personally, I expected no more than Rift with this game. Rift - the game that's been hailed as the MMO that provides the most content in the shortest amount of time than any other MMO to date. Well, I've already provided a detailed, numerical and chronological proof that TOR's doing better.

 

The game isn't going to die. People will still play and love this game. Its just not and never going to be a widely popular game because it just isn't a good MMO.

 

And just what is "widely popular"? You mean WoW popular? No, it won't be. And BioWare NEVER said it would be. EA may have, but BioWare directly contradicted EA on that, and I, for one, am proud of the Docs for doing that.

[JeramieCrowe]

Uhhhhhh....what?

 

Activision SPECIFICALLY excludes trial accounts and promotional gametime from their 'active subscriptions' figure, while EA cynically includes them to inflate the numbers. How is that a 'level playing field'?

 

Really? Are you going to try to actually tell us that Activision does NOT pad their numbers? I almost hope you do....But, really, don't try it. As usual, I WILL call you out on it...

Edited May 10, 2012 by JeramieCrowe

[Squatdog_nz]

Really? Are you going to try to actually tell us that Activision does NOT pad their numbers? I almost hope you do....But, really, don't try it. As usual, I WILL call you out on it...

 

Activision's definition of 'active subscribers' when assessing the number of active WoW subscriptions:

 

"World of Warcraft subscribers are defined to include: (1) individuals who have paid a subscription fee or have an active prepaid card to play World of Warcraft , (2) those who have purchased the game and are within their free month of access, and (3) Internet Game Room players who have accessed the game over the last thirty days. The definition of subscribers does not include any players under free promotional subscriptions, expired or cancelled subscriptions, or expired prepaid cards."

 

HERP-A-DERP-DERP

[Baneberry]

WoW Stable at 10.2 Million Subscribers

Activision Blizzard's press release states that World of Warcraft is still at 10.2 million subscribers as of 3/31/12. This is the same amount of subscribers from Q4 2011. A few other interesting points:

 

Battle.Net has 10 million users.

1.2 million people bought the Annual Pass.

 

Same number of people bought the annual pass for WOW as pay for this game!

 

Marketing Genius!

Edited May 10, 2012 by Baneberry

[JeramieCrowe]

Activision's definition of 'active subscribers' when assessing the number of active WoW subscriptions:

 

"World of Warcraft subscribers are defined to include: (1) individuals who have paid a subscription fee or have an active prepaid card to play World of Warcraft , (2) those who have purchased the game and are within their free month of access, and (3) Internet Game Room players who have accessed the game over the last thirty days. The definition of subscribers does not include any players under free promotional subscriptions, expired or cancelled subscriptions, or expired prepaid cards."

 

HERP-A-DERP-DERP

 

Sooo...are you going to try to tell us that Activision does NOT pad their numbers? Here I am, accused BioWare "fanboi", telling you that they pad their numbers, and you are really going to try to tell us that Activision/Blizzard does not?

 

I really need to say nothing more....*snicker*

[bennygold]

that is exactly how players feel,

during our peak time, all servers' status are light, except Australia servers.

 

I agree, only that with the Aussie servers launching in March they are 4 months behind the other servers. This lag will catchup and you will see them start to drop off around June / July to mirror the US and EU servers. Remember how you felt about SWTOR in early January, well thats what the game is up to on the Aussie servers.

[JeramieCrowe]

I agree, only that with the Aussie servers launching in March they are 4 months behind the other servers. This lag will catchup and you will see them start to drop off around June / July to mirror the US and EU servers. Remember how you felt about SWTOR in early January, well thats what the game is up to on the Aussie servers.

 

While a decrease will no doubt be noticed, they servers will not turn out to be "ghost towns", as they wisely only did three servers. But, you're right, the typical MMO trend will be realized.

Edited May 10, 2012 by JeramieCrowe

[Squatdog_nz]

WoW Stable at 10.2 Million Subscribers

Activision Blizzard's press release states that World of Warcraft is still at 10.2 million subscribers as of 3/31/12. This is the same amount of subscribers from Q4 2011. A few other interesting points:

 

Battle.Net has 10 million users.

1.2 million people bought the Annual Pass.

 

Same number of people bought the annual pass for WOW as pay for this game!

 

Marketing Genius!

 

Except that a large number of the 1.3m figure are trial accounts or free gametime promotions who AREN'T paying for the game.

 

 

Sooo...are you going to try to tell us that Activision does NOT pad their numbers? Here I am, accused BioWare "fanboi", telling you that they pad their numbers, and you are really going to try to tell us that Activision/Blizzard does not?

 

I really need to say nothing more....*snicker*

 

EA are (by their own admission) including trial accounts and free promotional gametime as part of their 'active subscription' figure.

 

Activision ONLY includes paying accounts that have been active within the last 30 days and SPECIFICALLY excludes trial accounts and free promotions.

 

What part of this can you possibly not understand?

[JeramieCrowe]

Except that a large number of the 1.3m figure are trial accounts or free gametime promotions who AREN'T paying for the game.

 

 

 

 

EA are (by their own admission) including trial accounts and free promotional gametime as part of their 'active subscription' figure.

 

Activision ONLY includes paying accounts that have been active within the last 30 days and SPECIFICALLY excludes trial accounts and free promotions.

 

What part of this can you possibly not understand?

 

Read it again. The 1.3 million was AFTER casuals and trials left. And Activision has used OTHER methods of padding their numbers and still do. Quit deluding yourself.

Edited May 10, 2012 by JeramieCrowe

[Squatdog_nz]

Read it again. The 1.3 million was AFTER casuals and trials left.

 

LMFAO!!!!

 

So according to you, there are currently no trial accounts active, because they 'all left'????

 

BWHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Oh boy.

[Bnol]

This was all an experiment for the creation of a Mass Effect MMORPG, in which they don't have to pay a licensing fee for. The reason they went with the Star Wars IP first was to make it a more sure bet. Story laden, FPS MMORPG inc.

[JeramieCrowe]

LMFAO!!!!

 

So according to you, there are currently no trial accounts active, because they 'all left'????

 

BWHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Oh boy.

 

I see. Not willing to do a reasonable, intelligent discussion, then? I've been suspecting that, but you just proved it by putting words in my mouth and insinuating something I didn't even hint at.

 

I really am sorry that you're so obviously snowed and fooled by Activision, though. =o/ Sorry, man.

[Squatdog_nz]

I see. Not willing to do a reasonable, intelligent discussion, then? I've been suspecting that, but you just proved it by putting words in my mouth and insinuating something I didn't even hint at.

 

I really am sorry that you're so obviously snowed and fooled by Activision, though. =o/ Sorry, man.

 

Exact quote from EA:

 

"as of the end of April we now have 1.3 million, with a substantial portion of the decrease due to casual and trial players cycling out of the subscriber base, driving up the overall percentage of paying subscribers"

 

They are counting trial accounts and free promotional gametime as 'active subscriptions'. Deal with it.

[RedWolfs]

Read it again. The 1.3 million was AFTER casuals and trials left. And Activision has used OTHER methods of padding their numbers and still do. Quit deluding yourself.

 

Yes 1.3 million after whatever casuals and trials left means, of course that is before the release 1.2 exodus is accounted for. We are talking about 46% after three months of reporting not six. Whats more its 46% with playing games to artificially boost the sub numbers by giving out a one month extension to all the cancels.

 

This is what a failed MMO, just like Rift another failed MMO, looks like. This was the fall off that Rift saw at the three month point, I know I was there for it. Rift went from 2mil to 200k, or ended with about 10% retention after a year. I don't care what industry you are in that's a failing grade. SWTOR sadly is on track to score similarly.

 

You might want to be careful asking others not to be deluded, double check your own grip on reality.

[Bnol]

Read it again. The 1.3 million was AFTER casuals and trials left. And Activision has used OTHER methods of padding their numbers and still do. Quit deluding yourself.

 

What other methods do they use that was not included in Activision's definition for active subscribers?

[JeramieCrowe]

Exact quote from EA:

 

"as of the end of April we now have 1.3 million, with a substantial portion of the decrease due to casual and trial players cycling out of the subscriber base, driving up the overall percentage of paying subscribers"

 

They are counting trial accounts and free promotional gametime as 'active subscriptions'. Deal with it.

 

I already have "dealt with it". I already told you that every developer pads the numbers. You're the only blindly being an Activision fanboi and saying they don't pad the numbers when it's already obvious they do. Not the same way as EA, but they do. My point still stands.