Reverse engineering 20% my foot

[oninojb]

I've broken down 10 Assault Shriekers now, nd the tool tip says I have a 20% chance at a blue schematic. I haven't gotten anything from it but lost materials and time. I understand sometimes you get a series of low rolls but I can count the times I've gotten 2 schemes breaking 5 items on 3 fingers. I can't count how many sets of 5-7 items I've broken apart in a row and not gotten squat. So does this mean Reverse engineering is still broken, broken on some items or am I really this unlucky this consistantly? I mean I'm talking level 9 green items here

[MCerberus]

Math says that there's a 10% chance that when you reverse engineer something 10 times you get no recipe. It isn't accumulated. Each and every chance is a new roll. You don't seem to mind it when you get the recipe first try.

[Cragan]

There is a 80% chance every time to fail.

10 tries is an extremely low count.

[Ommamar]

It would be cool though if each try added say a 1% to the next roll.

 

I have not gotten to far into the affection system but does a maxed affection raise the chance above 20% or is that the best chance you will ever get?

[Sambril]

It would be cool though if each try added say a 1% to the next roll.

 

I have not gotten to far into the affection system but does a maxed affection raise the chance above 20% or is that the best chance you will ever get?

 

Affection has no effect on RE chance, companions are not involved.

 

Streaks of bad luck are to be expected occassionally with a random system. Over the least 2 days I must have REd at least 30 Might Hilt 18 greens trying to get blue. Quite frustrating. But during that time I was also REing a lot of other items - I got quite a few in 1-2 tries, a good deal more in the 4-6 range, so overall I would say that it does even out.

 

The devs have hinted at the idea of a streak breaker system, but I'd imagine they would proceed very carefully in modifying their random number generation. It has great potential to completely screw up a game.

[SteveGarbage]

It happens. I was working on crafting purple-grade shields for every available level for my alt. I must have crafted 50 plus lvl 36 shields and NEVER got a purp schem. Then on the Lvl 49 shield it took me about three RE tries to get it. It happens.

 

But I totally agree with the people who say that it should improve per failure. The way it is now is like you break it down and never learn anything by doing so. You'd think after dissambling 30 shields I'd have a pretty good idea of how they work ... but I guess not. Even if it was like 1 or 2 percent per failure it would be nice.

[SentinelDranoel]

Feels like a Epic Fail to me, I would rather be able to stack items or the idea people have of the percentage being raised as failures accumulate. Future legacy character perk is what I can forsee coming to address this.

[Lodril]

You'd think after dissambling 30 shields I'd have a pretty good idea of how they work ... but I guess not.

 

Why would you learn anything disassembling it that you didn't learn building it in the first place? The system as it stands makes no sense as 'reverse engineering'. I'm not even sure why they called it that. A system where you could disassemble a device built by someone else to learn how to make it would be interesting, but that's not what this system does... it just breaks stuff back into component parts, and sometimes you apparently find a prize inside.

 

 

I've definitely been frustrated by long streaks of RE'ing with no new schema learned. Also by the amateur-hour statisticians who think that a 10% chance across dozens of attempts is the same as a 10% chance across one attempt. They cling to Zeno's paradox and smugly proclaim it wisdom, making themselves a nuisance for a few scant seconds of shallow self-congratulation at their illusory counter-intuitive mathematical savvy.

[oninojb]

Math says that there's a 10% chance that when you reverse engineer something 10 times you get no recipe. It isn't accumulated. Each and every chance is a new roll. You don't seem to mind it when you get the recipe first try.

 

Yes but you would think the chance of rolling a 1-2 out of 10 a single time in 10 tries would be 1 in 5, but at least 1 in 10 you know?

 

BTW I wouldn't complain those times I get it on the second try except as I said above I can count the time that has happened on one hand.

[oninojb]

Why would you learn anything disassembling it that you didn't learn building it in the first place? The system as it stands makes no sense as 'reverse engineering'. I'm not even sure why they called it that. A system where you could disassemble a device built by someone else to learn how to make it would be interesting, but that's not what this system does... it just breaks stuff back into component parts, and sometimes you apparently find a prize inside.

 

 

I've definitely been frustrated by long streaks of RE'ing with no new schema learned. Also by the amateur-hour statisticians who think that a 10% chance across dozens of attempts is the same as a 10% chance across one attempt. They cling to Zeno's paradox and smugly proclaim it wisdom, making themselves a nuisance for a few scant seconds of shallow self-congratulation at their illusory counter-intuitive mathematical savvy.

I actually liked the experimentation points in SWG in this reguard.

[MCerberus]

Yes but you would think the chance of rolling a 1-2 out of 10 a single time in 10 tries would be 1 in 5, but at least 1 in 10 you know?

 

BTW I wouldn't complain those times I get it on the second try except as I said above I can count the time that has happened on one hand.

 

You're describing the gambler's fallacy. The RNG doesn't care how many times you failed.

And also you don't count when it happens, because you don't keep track of statistical outliers in your favor because the human brain is wired to only keep track of what you don't like happening.

[lunartic]

If it was easy i wouldnt even bother to RE and get schematics. Why even bother to get schematics that everyone and their cousin would have, heck i'd just buy the gear off them. While we are there, why not just put all known schemetics in game on the crew trainers. lolol

[VeovisX]

I'm currently on a streak of 16 failures. So I thought I'd drop by the forums and share the math. Given the 20% chance to RE something: the probability of actually succeeding at least 1 RE in a streak is 1-(4/5)^x. (if you are doing a 10% chance use 1-(9/10)^x, but we'll be using the more common 20%)

 

Given 5 tries (x=5) the the chance of succeeding one RE in a streak is 1-(1024/3125)=0.67232 or 67.232%

lets continue with some math now for longer streaks:

x=6;1 - ((4 / 5)^6) = 0.737856

x=7;1 - ((4 / 5)^7) = 0.7902848

x=8;1 - ((4 / 5)^8) = 0.83222784

x=9;1 - ((4 / 5)^9) = 0.865782272

x=10;1 - ((4 / 5)^10) = 0.892625818

x=12;1 - ((4 / 5)^12) = 0.931280523

x=15;1 - ((4 / 5)^15) = 0.964815628

x=20;1 - ((4 / 5)^20) = 0.988470785

x=30;1 - ((4 / 5)^30) = 0.99876206

 

But consider everyone that plays SWTOR as a population(number of created characters is more then likely high enough to warrant this), these chances are the same for everyone so still if everyone is crafting 6.89% of players will in theory be getting a streak of 12 before they they see results, and 6.89% out of all the players is still a large number. Also statistics states something is not an uncommon occurrence until it falls into the -/+5 percentile. So missing 13 RE's shouldn't strike you are odd, but once you are hitting 14+ there is probably something wrong.

 

So at this point I've RE'd a few more times and failed continuously , So I'm asking Bioware, is there something preventing me from getting "critical" or "overkill" just because I have "redoubt"?

[oninojb]

Update, 15 attempts now with a "20% RE Chance"... still nothing....

[oninojb]

If it was easy i wouldnt even bother to RE and get schematics. Why even bother to get schematics that everyone and their cousin would have, heck i'd just buy the gear off them. While we are there, why not just put all known schemetics in game on the crew trainers. lolol

 

If they want to make it hard then they can set the chances to 10% for a blue scheme. But don't tell me the chance for the blue scheme is 20% when I've RE'd 15 of them now and gotten nothing. All I am saying is the tooltip strikes me as wrong.

[pokota]

I'm guessing that a lot of the people who are complaining about 10-20 reverse engineering attempt now weren't heavy into crafting before patch 1.2. As for me, this feels like a wonderful dream. Previously, I had a couple of streaks of 100+ trying to get a level 49 schematic (including "you already know that"), so I'm definitely not going to stress over 15. Just how easy does it need to be? Should they simply put ALL schematics on the trainer and call it a day?

 

So at this point I've RE'd a few more times and failed continuously , So I'm asking Bioware, is there something preventing me from getting "critical" or "overkill" just because I have "redoubt"?

 

This would be my only quibble, if it turns out to be the case. Knowing a schematic should not reduce your chances to learn a different version.

[Angelfeeties]

I wouldn't complain about the new system. I haven't gone beyond 20 RE's without getting a proc after 1.2. After 1.1.3, when they royally botched RE'ing rates and never admitted it, my longest streak for no procs ("you already know that schematic"'s included) is 115. I buddy's longest streak was 145. These are Prototype quality too. That's almost 2-4 stacks of each component.

 

I much prefer the new system. It's allowed me to finish RE'ing the Cunning and Willpower Implants that I decided to hold off on until the RE revamp. In short of 2 weeks i've accomplished more successful RE's than I did in the first 4 months, and now have every practical lvl 49 artifact implant RE'd.

 

The only thing now that makes me /wrist is finding out which of my implants actually sold. Yes, thank you for telling me that my Nano-Optic Might Package sold, but which one? Endowment? Fervor? Hawkeye? Expert? No, wait, don't tell me, let me go hunt through my 7 pages of implants on the GTN to find out.

 

/rant

[ConradLionhart]

I'm sure the OP has neglected to mention the times he got a successful RE from less than 5 attempts.

[Robbygoof]

You're describing the gambler's fallacy. The RNG doesn't care how many times you failed.

And also you don't count when it happens, because you don't keep track of statistical outliers in your favor because the human brain is wired to only keep track of what you don't like happening.

 

An easier way to describe this is, say a woman has 4 kids and they are all girls, most people think owe they should have boy next they are "due" but it is still a 50/50 chance of getting a boy! That being said, you have a 20%(or whatever that items % is) chance to RE a schem EVERYTIME you RE an item the odds do not actually go more in your favor just because you have done them consecutively.

[Blattan]

I'm sure the OP has neglected to mention the times he got a successful RE from less than 5 attempts.

 

[Vizzini impersonation]You'd like to think that, wouldn't you?[/impersonation]

 

I've broken down 10 Assault Shriekers now, nd the tool tip says I have a 20% chance at a blue schematic. I haven't gotten anything from it but lost materials and time. I understand sometimes you get a series of low rolls but I can count the times I've gotten 2 schemes breaking 5 items on 3 fingers. I can't count how many sets of 5-7 items I've broken apart in a row and not gotten squat. So does this mean Reverse engineering is still broken, broken on some items or am I really this unlucky this consistantly? I mean I'm talking level 9 green items here

 

Emphasis is mine.

Edited May 7, 2012 by Blattan

[VeovisX]

really no comments on my math, and just one agreeing with my final statement?

[lunartic]

I am not a number person but if there are 1mil (i dont know how many, just a guess) subs in swtor and 1% (again just randomly throwing in a small %) gets horrible result, that's 10k players. And qqs from 10k players is enough to make many ppl feel that it's broken. A lot of ppl like my wife who doesn't find a problem with the RE schematics rate would not bother to post in forum or argue abt it.

 

PS: if that made any sense at all lol

Edited May 11, 2012 by lunartic

[rjkishida]

The OP is nothing new. Many people have started threads, posted about the same, and nothing has changed.

 

Bioware figures no one has unsubbed over it yet, why bother fixing it.

 

Fanbois point out that statistics are evil and random.

 

Crew Skill are an epic fail. Don't bother with them.

[well]

I think it is horrible myself.I have 6 crafters and I normally do it by 10.Very rare for me to get in under 5.Doesn't matter if it is low level or not.Took 17 the other day for level 9 item.Then again I wanted to do a hat for my smuggler and I made 20 for the attempt.Epic Fail:mad:. After gathering some more mats tried again.Bolo.I was inventing swear words I was so ticked.

[Solates]

Time sink.

Money sink.

Transparant and blatant.

And it does track how many you have re'd...how do I know this? Because once one procs you usually get the other two right behind it because you have finally RE'd the 50th one.

 

Look if BW wanted their crafting system to actually be useful they would save themselves about 1000 database entries and use inteligent design. In other words, remove shield stat on cunning items, remove presense gear period.

 

However statistically speaking thats the first two items I get when RE'ing. Presence or Shield.

 

Could have saved some poor soul a ton of database entry time(probably one month total) by not including those stats in gear that would be useless for a player.

 

And if a companion for some god forsaken reason uses cunning and equips a shield...change the companion not include 1000 crafted items.

 

We should be able to work competently forward our goal. If I want a critical epic, i should be able to select it and it tell me what is the most logical items to get. For that matter instead of this augment crap(which means nothing more than biochem becomes even more op since they can use them too) they should have given all the others reusable boost as well in their trees.