EA to Release Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2012 Results on May 7, 2012

[HeavensAgent]

On the subject of subs being at the rate they are. Yes they may very well be 1.7 million, however what about all those people who unsubbed? Remember their accounts still count as subscribers at least until the next bill date. I doubt that there are really 1.7 million players, but there are no doubt 1.7 million subs.... At least until peoples subs end.

Once again, this idea lacks any substance. There has never been any evidence to support the idea that such accounts are included among those counted as active subscriptions. In fact the very definition of the terms "active" and "cancelled," as they apply to this situation, indicate that this is specifically not the case.

[iheartnyc]

I remember when gamers weren't pretend financial businessmen and stockbrokers.

 

That's actually funny. Two of my coworkers in my office also play SWTOR (we talked about it during lunch today in fact). Not to mention the many other people I know in the industry who play games. There was a famous story of a federal judge who took the day off to play COD the day it was released. I used to run into colleagues and counterparties at Gamestop in NYC all the time.

[Kalfear]

I just activated my account a little while ago with this timecard I had lying about...and...

 

"Free trial, free trial, free trial...come back, free trial."

 

That's all I have to say to anyone who thinks subscription numbers haven't changed for the better or worse. The fact Daniel Erickson says, "the subscription numbers haven't changed" is mendacious in itself.

 

Thats what makes me laugh!

Personally I dont care about the numbers, my server was heavy 2 months ago and now lists standard with single digit fleet and planets. This is server number 3 for me (rerolled here 2 months ago because other 2 servers died and this was heavy load) and its dead dead dead. Could care less what Fatman doing as not rerolling again!

 

But yeah, the statement funny cause all the diehard fanbois rallying their wagons about how the game is doing fine sub wise!

 

5 months in, after free week ends, free week trials, free month if you resub promotion, and the so called god patch 1.2 and best they can do is keep same sub numbers as 3 months ago? On a newly (not even 6 month old) AAA HUGE PROFILE MMORPG?

 

Yeah thats NOT GOOD.

 

They can spin it anyway they want (assuming people beleive the numbers at all, most I talk with dont because their servers dead as well) truth is their very own quote says after huge costly promotions normally not seen till after the first year of operation (in pre WOW MMOs), the best they can claim is staying even.

 

Thats NOT GOOD. Not good at all.

 

Doesnt mean the game failing yet, just means the game is not growing in a time frame it should be continueing to grow accounts and subs through word of mouth alone (forget all the promotions, word of mouth should have grown this game month by month) if its a good word of mouth being shared.

 

If I was a share holder, Id be demanding some very pointed responces on why the subscription growth rate not as predicted in this game.

[Sanxxx]

Today , 01:40 PM | #176

REPORT POST QUOTE

Quote: Originally Posted by sambeta

On the subject of subs being at the rate they are. Yes they may very well be 1.7 million, however what about all those people who unsubbed? Remember their accounts still count as subscribers at least until the next bill date. I doubt that there are really 1.7 million players, but there are no doubt 1.7 million subs.... At least until peoples subs end.

Once again, this idea lacks any substance. There has never been any evidence to support the idea that such accounts are included among those counted as active subscriptions. In fact the very definition of the terms "active" and "cancelled," as they apply to this situation, indicate that this is specifically not the case.

 

It's not an 'idea' it's a fact. I have cancelled my 6 month subscription yet my account is still active by virtue of the fact that I can post on these forums and play the game hence I count as an active subscription. Cancellation means stopping the automatic renewal and is the term used in the account management section.

Edited April 24, 2012 by Sanxxx

[Kthx]

I just activated my account a little while ago with this timecard I had lying about...and...

 

"Free trial, free trial, free trial...come back, free trial."

 

That's all I have to say to anyone who thinks subscription numbers haven't changed for the better or worse.

 

Obviously some people have unsubscribed, but at the same time the game is also gathering new subscribers. It would be silly for BioWare not to try to recapture the former. The question is whether the former outnumber the latter. SWTOR is still in the top-10 selling PC games on amazon.com.

[iheartnyc]

It's absilutely stunnin how little game analysts actually know about the industry they're advising on.

 

Bioware never have 1.75 million paying subscribers.

 

It had, in its own weasel words, 1.75 'active accounts'.

 

Those 'active accounts' included anyone who had given EA their credit card details BUT anyone who wanted to play the game, even just for the first free month, had to hand over their credit card details.

 

When EA was pressed about how many of these 'active accounts' actually had 'paid subscriptions', they finally fessed up and admitted; 'Over half'.

 

OK, 'over half' of 1.75 million is 875,000 plus.

 

Now... that figure came at the end of December. That was the launch month and, incidentally, the biggest game buying monht of the year (Christmas, ffs).

 

So, here we have an analyst who is telling us that he predicts the subscriber figures will be 1.25 million. THAT MEANS AN ACTUAL RISE IN SUBSCRIBER FIGURES OF OVER 30%.

 

 

 

You fail. The subscription numbers are actually as of February 2, 2012. The subscription numbers were released as part of the press release announcing 4Q2011 financial statements, which have to be filed with the SEC. The press release, dated as of Februray 2, 2012, was duly filed on EDGAR (sec.gov) and is subject to Sarbanes-Oxley, meaning all statements contained therein must not contain any material misstatement or omission of material fact.

 

Also, there are literally thousands upon thousands of analysts. Thousands. Why cherry-pick which one you listen to? The good ones don't offer their analysis for free, they charge clients huge amounts for them.

[Kthx]

If I was a share holder, Id be demanding some very pointed responces on why the subscription growth rate not as predicted in this game.

 

Why, what was the prediction? Was it better or worse than 1.7 million?

[iheartnyc]

Contrast this to some anonymous troll on the interwebs spouts an opposing number, without any factual basis, without any responsibility, and without any accountability for any falsehood perpetuated.

 

 

And to add further, posting false numbers in an attempt to short the stock of a company is a federal crime.

[Goretzu]

And to add further, posting false numbers in an attempt to short the stock of a company is a federal crime.

 

No, it's not.

 

I would like to see you try and get someone posting a random subs number here to stick as a "federal crime" though, admittedly the USA would probably just extradite them and try to get them to plea bargin.

Edited April 24, 2012 by Goretzu

[iheartnyc]

On the subject of subs being at the rate they are. Yes they may very well be 1.7 million, however what about all those people who unsubbed? Remember their accounts still count as subscribers at least until the next bill date. I doubt that there are really 1.7 million players, but there are no doubt 1.7 million subs.... At least until peoples subs end.

 

Just to get technical:

 

Actually you don't know that. It depends all on how accounting handles the information. And how that information is treated by the independent auditors of the company. The CEO/CFO of EA and its board of directors, and the reputations of accountants (Deloitte, PwC, Ernst & Young, etc.) are on the line here.

 

Remember, EA is a LISTED PUBLIC US COMPANY subject to ROBUST Sarbanes-Oxley/SEC disclosure regimes and stringent internal audit controls. They are also required to be audited by an indenedent accounting firm, who will sign an opinion (risking their reputation) that the numbers are all accurate.

 

So, with that said, do you count a cancelled sub as an active subscriber? Screw marketing/business side guys, they don't decide this. It's the management and accountants that do. And from their perspective, what is the point of defining a "subscriber?" Simple. Each subscriber represents an "account receivable." E.g., a promise of a future cash flow. A cancelled account means that there is no future cash flow. There is no need to put that on your books. No way to account for it actually. I spend all day looking at financial statements and don't know where to "acccount" for a "no longer an account receivable", which is what a cancelled account technically amounts to.

 

Now, the business/IR team could probably pull up the list of how many people have the "privilege" to logon and play the game at any given moment (e.g., including subscribers who have cancelled). However, from a management perspective, there is no point in knowing this number. As someone who has advised some of the largest companies across 4 different continents, I can assure you we always recommend conservativism and caution when disclosing anything to the government or to investors, and guess what, they usually listen.

 

/End thread.

[Goretzu]

 

So, with that said, do you count a cancelled sub as an active subscriber?

 

It is worth pointing out that there is no way to obtain irrefutable accurate information on subscribers. Only the companies responsible for the games have access to the statistics and their interpretation of an active account may be different from yours. The majority count anyone who is paying for a subscription, anyone in a free trial period or anyone who has been active on an account within the last month. They make no distinction for users with multiple accounts so they will be counted separately. Clearly the figures will not be representative of the number of users you can expect to find online within a game world at any given time – that number will be much lower.

 

EA will count any account with game time left or like active in the last month as an active sub, like most MMORPGs do.

Edited April 24, 2012 by Goretzu

[iheartnyc]

No, it's not.

 

I would like to see you try and get someone posting a random subs number here to stick as a "federal crime" though, admittedly the USA would probably just extradite them and try to get them to plea bargin.

 

http://articles.latimes.com/2001/jan/24/business/fi-16199

 

I remember this from when I was still in school. But yes, it happens, and people get busted all the time.

[ZudetGambeous]

I'm sure the report will read something like this:

 

"As of the end of April we have over 2 million active accounts."

 

Of course they will strategically use the word "active accounts" instead of subs so they can count all the players who had their accounts forced back open for a week even if they canceled.

 

And also coincided with the free month all active accounts have been given so that it is impossible for them to see any drop off or reduction in "active" accounts.

 

If they report actual sub numbers, they still get to count all the free month people, but I don't think they can count the 7 days of forced activation accounts. Then I predict probably about 1 million subs total.

 

Our guild alone has added over 50 people who have started over from dead servers this past month, yet our overall server population has remained relatively stagnant, which says to me that people are leaving pretty steadily even while the players do their own manual server merges.

[iheartnyc]

EA will count any account with game time left or like active in the last month as an active sub, like most MMORPGs do.

 

What is the context of that? Who made that statement? Was it an accountant? Was it a financial officer? Is this a US public company they are talking about? Not many game companies are listed on the NYSE, which are subject to Sarbanes-Oxley and MUCH MORE STRINGENT ACCOUNTING STANDARDS than some privately held software company, a point which you ignore.

[Goretzu]

http://articles.latimes.com/2001/jan/24/business/fi-16199

 

I remember this from when I was still in school. But yes, it happens, and people get busted all the time.

 

Yes, purposely posting a false rumour on over 500 different message boards might, but saying you think SWTOR has XXXXXXX subs here isn't the same thing at all.

 

 

Although it seems I was spot on with the plea bargain.

[Goretzu]

What is the context of that? Who made that statement? Was it an accountant? Was it a financial officer? Is this a US public company they are talking about? Not many game companies are listed on the NYSE, which are subject to Sarbanes-Oxley and MUCH MORE STRINGENT ACCOUNTING STANDARDS than some privately held software company, a point which you ignore.

 

It's what most MMORPGs do and have done.

 

There's nothing illegal or dodgy (legally) about including any of those accounts in your subs numbers, which is why they do it. Although it might not be what most people would always think of as active subs.

 

SoE was doing it well over 10 years ago now.

 

Like every thing the "truth" depends on your point of view.

[Holden_Dissent]

Too bad SWTOR doesn't get to pad it's numbers like WoW does. All of their Asian accounts are considered active whether they logged in jan 2003 or april 2012. Edited April 24, 2012 by Holden_Dissent

[iheartnyc]

I'm sure the report will read something like this:

 

"As of the end of April we have over 2 million active accounts."

 

Of course they will strategically use the word "active accounts" instead of subs so they can count all the players who had their accounts forced back open for a week even if they canceled.

 

And also coincided with the free month all active accounts have been given so that it is impossible for them to see any drop off or reduction in "active" accounts.

 

If they report actual sub numbers, they still get to count all the free month people, but I don't think they can count the 7 days of forced activation accounts. Then I predict probably about 1 million subs total.

 

Our guild alone has added over 50 people who have started over from dead servers this past month, yet our overall server population has remained relatively stagnant, which says to me that people are leaving pretty steadily even while the players do their own manual server merges.

 

This is sad. No, public companies don't "strategically" manipulate their numbers (well, Enron did). Public companies disclose losses and bad financial and operating results all the time. ALL THE TIME. They've been doing it all week and last week (it's earnings season everybody). And you're saying EA will just do that?

 

First off, subscription numbers aren't that important to EA. Revenue top line numbers. Current liabilities. Long-term debt. Short-term debt. Comparison from 1Q2011 vs. 1Q2012. These are what investors really care about. And you think the CEO will sign his name on a "Strategically" manipulated number, risking jail time, just to change a number which frankly, investors won't care too much about?

[iheartnyc]

It's what most MMORPGs do and have done.

 

There's nothing illegal or dodgy (legally) about including any of those accounts in your subs numbers, which is why they do it. Although it might not be what most people would always think of as active subs.

 

SoE was doing it well over 10 years ago now.

 

Like every thing the "truth" depends on your point of view.

 

Most MMORPGs aren't operated by PUBLICLY LISTED COMPANIES. Why is that so hard to grasp? A privately held company can lie for all it cares. Who's going to sue?

 

A US public company can't. Its shareholders will sue, and the SEC will be giving your CFO a call.

[Icysunx]

Well considering the free month extends everyone's subscription, they will have every subscriber active that ever bought the game.

[iheartnyc]

Yes, purposely posting a false rumour on over 500 different message boards might, but saying you think SWTOR has XXXXXXX subs here isn't the same thing at all.

 

 

Although it seems I was spot on with the plea bargain.

 

And you were flat out wrong with you, "No, not at all."

 

I come up with evidence proving your, "No, not at all" comment completely incorrect, and then you backtrack and revise your argument to "well actually...as long as you don't do it to over 500 different message boards.....". Care to make anymore caveats? Or will you just admit you were wrong with you, "No, not at all"?

[Holden_Dissent]

Well considering the free month extends everyone's subscription, they will have every subscriber active that ever bought the game.

 

Your account had to be active to get the free month. Plus I think it was already pointed out that they are taking numbers for this month. Not next month (the free month)

[Goretzu]

Most MMORPGs aren't operated by PUBLICLY LISTED COMPANIES. Why is that so hard to grasp? A privately held company can lie for all it cares. Who's going to sue?

 

A US public company can't. Its shareholders will sue, and the SEC will be giving your CFO a call.

 

SoE isn't? EA isn't with Warhammer Online? Even Warner Bros are at it now.

 

I understand what you're saying, but you don't seem to understand the MMORPG market.

[Icysunx]

Last week everyones account was active whether they relogged in or not.

[Goretzu]

And you were flat out wrong with you, "No, not at all."

 

So you weren't suggesting posting numbers here is a federal crime then?

 

Fair enough, I misunderstood, but then way post it at all?

 

 

I come up with evidence proving your, "No, not at all" comment completely incorrect, and then you backtrack and revise your argument to "well actually...as long as you don't do it to over 500 different message boards.....". Care to make anymore caveats? Or will you just admit you were wrong with you, "No, not at all"?

 

So (just to be clear) you are saying someone posting SWTOR has XXXXX subs here is a federal crime?

 

Again no, it is NOT!