The life and Death of an MMO

[Elkay]

For reasons that have escaped my thoughts MMOs have traditionally (SWTOR is no exception) started out with enormous potential and strength (amazing graphics, visuals, character development, questing, etc. etc.) with the amount of 'gaming' tapering off as a player gets closer to the level cap.

 

While this may be an industry requirement to ensure funding and on-time release of the game, unless dealt with swiftly and immediately - the server populations will begin the downward spiral into closure.

 

Here's how it works:

Launch: Avg Age: Level 1

Everyone is excited. The mechanics and visuals are flawless. Quest, solo and group content is vast. Server populations are so high - waiting queues are created forcing players to have to delay logging. Noobie planet populations are crowded...everyone is excited!

 

Week 1: Avg Age: Level 15

Server population has started to spread out. Most are progressing while others are testing new classes or alignments. The volume of bodies per planet increases as the number of planets that hold higher-level content begin to decrease. There is a bounce in everyone's step as they think, "I know something you dont know!" - New gear is discovered, modified, displayed. Flashpoinst and PVP are rampent. Toons are becoming more powerful and specialized...everyone is excited!

 

Week 2: Avg Age: Level 30

Population is reconverging from the noobie worlds onto the mid-level worlds. Pilots are sewing their oats in space. Issues in the game mechanics are ironed out and patched. More and more content becomes available. Flashpoints are expanding - class quests becoming a challenge. Datacrons!! Find them! The excitement builds...Get 50!!!

 

Week 3: Avg Age: Level 40

The race to 50 is on. Its within everyone's grasp. New Flashpoints, Class-quests are getting completed. Operations are within reach. Galactic Trade Network is overflowing with newly discovered items, missions, materials, etc. Guilds are comfortably set with a solid core of 16 and another half dozen alts and stand-by's. Strategies are formulated for the upcoming HM and NM operations. Here is a list of the Stims and Adrenals you must have! Make sure you repair! Logon's have been dealt with by expanding login servers.

 

Weeks 4-??: Avg Age level 49.??

Players game to socialize, pvp or quest. At level 50 there are only a few quests that can be repeated. Gear sets are established...everyone wants Rakata. To get Rakata armor and weapons - you have to be successful in the Ops HM / NM... but here's where the game starts to show its rust:

 

The average toon age is now very close to 50 with guilds filled to capacity...there are only a couple of flashpoints that a player can run and repeating those while entertaining the first dozen times quickly gets old. There are only two Ops - both extremely exciting as each guild in turn learns their own strat for killing the mini's and the zone bosses...very quickly, boss drops go from equipping toons to equipping their main companions to equipping their off-off-off companions.

 

Weeks progress:

Players no longer log in daily. Many log in every few days...run a FP or a handful of dailies...they wait for 'raid night' which after 4-6 weeks becomes more of a burden than a thrill. Guild populations begin to deminish with many only a few weeks before over flowing with players...now having to search for Pick-Up toons just to compete effectively against the Ops bosses. Server populations are rarely 'high' with most at 'light' - guild trade network becomes filled with cheap items because everyone is selling, no one is buying. This makes questing / raiding / FP's less important because... no one is buying and the repairs are outrageous.

 

Dont believe me? Make a toon, any class, any alignment and login. Look around you. How many players do you see? 2? 3? There are no (very few) new toons being made

 

What went wrong:

First, having only 2 ops was a bad idea. The launch should have included at least 4. Next, the number of items dropped off each boss should have been reduced. Allowing a guild to fully equip itself in just a few weeks makes the necessity of running the ops greatly reduced. Next, having a zillion level 1-40 quests while only a dozen at level 50 made leveling up easiler to be sure...but also makes being level 50 boring as you know what. Instead of having everyone's skill tree maxed when they hit 50, there should have been a seperate "XP" pool for skills that the players earn by killing, questing, etc...again - more reason to continue to play on a more frequent basis.

 

My fear: Patch 1.2 will bring a handful of new dailies which will re-excited whats left of the population and probably bring back another group that actually stopped playing a month or so back. The new Op will inject new excitement into the guilds that are having troubles getting even 8 people to login...

 

But will this be enough? Yes, it will work for the first several weeks but then like the rest of the game, the players will get everything, have everything, have seen everything and become restless and bored.

 

Its my hope that Bioware is in agreement with my message above and are working diligently on new, high-end content with some kind of boost to the skill tree that will be XP-based giving day-to-day players "just enough" reason to login and not cancel their accounts.

 

For those who strongly disagree with what I'm saying, of course there are other things to do in the game for pure entertainment: Empire-only players can make a Republic toon and see the other half of the game and vice versa...but most have a love-affair with their main character and want to take it further and higher than the next person of the same class. Who doesn't see another Marauder (w/e) standing next to them and inspect their gear? Some looking to see how they can improve and others...as a measuring stick for their own achiements.

 

Time will tell...

 

-LK

[Bluerodian]

There will be another new character surge after 1.2 when people start to make their specific race/class combos.

 

Personally, I'm looking to have one of every character and all of them smurfy.

[Balbosa]

This is the same with all MMO's. If you been playing MMO's for a while, you're probably burnt out from the genre.

[iomed]

There will be another new character surge after 1.2 when people start to make their specific race/class combos.

 

Personally, I'm looking to have one of every character and all of them smurfy.

 

Unfortunately that surge won't last long, playing a new species doesn't change the boring side quests that most people have ran multiple times.

[Bluerodian]

Unfortunately that surge won't last long, playing a new species doesn't change the boring side quests that most people have ran multiple times.

 

Very true, indeed. Well, here's to hoping that Bioware realizes that their heavily vaunted story isn't going to carry in the long run.

[Cerion]

For reasons that have escaped my thoughts MMOs have traditionally (SWTOR is no exception) started out with enormous potential and strength (amazing graphics, visuals, character development, questing, etc. etc.) with the amount of 'gaming' tapering off as a player gets closer to the level cap.

 

While this may be an industry requirement to ensure funding and on-time release of the game, unless dealt with swiftly and immediately - the server populations will begin the downward spiral into closure.

 

 

-LK

 

Stopped reading after this as the OP clearly has no idea what he/she is talking about. Since the inception of the MMO genre, there have been only about half dozen closures out of over a 100 MMOs launched.

 

BioWare isn't going to close down SWTOR. Not even close. Sorry the OP wasted so much space typing up drivel.

Edited April 4, 2012 by Cerion

[Touchbass]

Very true, indeed. Well, here's to hoping that Bioware realizes that their heavily vaunted story isn't going to carry in the long run.

 

Yeah, it's unfortunate but true

[Cerion]

Very true, indeed. Well, here's to hoping that Bioware realizes that their heavily vaunted story isn't going to carry in the long run.

 

Isn't going to carry it FOR YOU. The story idea is fantastic and is plenty for me.

[scootshoot]

The Star Wars fanboys better hope TOR succeeds in the long run. If TOR crashes and burns like SWG, there is zero chance another developer forks over $$$ for another Star Wars MMO....

[scootshoot]

BioWare isn't going to close down SWTOR. Not even close. Sorry the OP wasted so much space typing up drivel.

 

None of the competitors were willing to fork over 150 plus million in development time. EA/LucasArts would not have approved of this cash investment if they thought this game would lead to "Free 2 play" in a year.

[xxdragonragexx]

swg ran for a long time. 10+ years just on pure star wars fanboism.

It was crap of a game when I first played it and didn't think it will last 10+ years.

 

Honestly, lots of MMO that are crap are still alive. MMO games hardly die.

[Cerion]

The Star Wars fanboys better hope TOR succeeds in the long run. If TOR crashes and burns like SWG, there is zero chance another developer forks over $$$ for another Star Wars MMO....

 

blah, blah, concern troll is concerned. We get it. Trouble is, trolls said the same thing about SWG. I know, 'cause I was there. "If SWG fails, nobody will fork over the money to make another Star Wars MMO..." yadda, yadda.

[Bluerodian]

Isn't going to carry it FOR YOU. The story idea is fantastic and is plenty for me.

 

Not just me. Just take a look around at the various servers. At any rate, the game is going to need some different and interesting gameplay to hold on. The problem isn't the story in and of itself, its that the story is a finite element. It WILL run out, and long before they can add more to it.

[Cerion]

None of the competitors were willing to fork over 150 plus million in development time. EA/LucasArts would not have approved of this cash investment if they thought this game would lead to "Free 2 play" in a year.

 

Which is why they invested 150 millions, because it won't be going f2p in a year. I'm glad we see eye to eye on that point. My guess, not even 5 years.

[Sparklehorse]

The Star Wars fanboys better hope TOR succeeds in the long run. If TOR crashes and burns like SWG, there is zero chance another developer forks over $$$ for another Star Wars MMO....

 

You know who else better hope SWTOR doesn't fail?

 

Every single person that plays MMOs and enjoys the genre, that's who.

 

If this game tanks it will be years before investors are willing to foot the bill for another AAA title in the genre, regardless of the IP.

[crustie]

The reasoning this is happening to this and most MMO's that come out now is that they all copy the current WoW formula. Where everything is far too easily attainable. There's a reason that WoW had a huge steady player base for years in vanilla. That reason is that it was hard to conquer end game content and pvp gear was a VERY long grind. Those aspects kept the player base around for years with because the carrot was right in front of their face, but it was just out of their reach.

 

I personally don't know anyone i knew from vanilla WoW that still plays. The reasoning is it's too easy to gear out and they get bored. More proof of the vast majority of vanilla WoW players not playing anymore was when i took my free week just before this game came out. I logged into my rogue that is in full season 2 gear and no one recognized it at all. I had pm after pm asking what gear it was..

 

In conclusion, MMO's cater far too much to the casual these days and it hurts them in the long run. I'm casual myself and was in vanilla WoW. It took me a long time to gear out at 60 because of it and I accepted that due to my time restraints. The current WoW has spoiled players into feeling they deserve the same gear almost as quickly as the hard core get it. That is what is killing MMO's these days. So to copy Vanilla WoW's formula would not work either due to these players. I fear now that every MMO is doomed to the same fate until the sense of entitlement leaves the casual players.

[Bluerodian]

You know who else better hope SWTOR doesn't fail?

 

Every single person that plays MMOs and enjoys the genre, that's who.

 

If this game tanks it will be years before investors are willing to foot the bill for another AAA title in the genre, regardless of the IP.

 

I'm hoping that it does, and fails to such a miraculous degree that it causes the entire industry to collapse and sets the whole thing back to square one. It'll be better for the MMO industry in the long run to get it thrown back in to the hands of the indies.

[cronpants]

Whats yer point?

[Cerion]

Not just me. Just take a look around at the various servers. At any rate, the game is going to need some different and interesting gameplay to hold on. The problem isn't the story in and of itself, its that the story is a finite element. It WILL run out, and long before they can add more to it.

 

I am taking a look around. I see plenty of people who are enjoying the stories as well. It took me 2 months to finish my first story on my JK. It'll be anothe 2 months for my Sith Warrior. I've got Bounty Hunter, Sith Inquisitor, Imperial Agent, Trooper, Smuggler, Consular all to go. That's at least a years worth of content to work my way through at 2 months per.

 

Then there's my desire to level different specs. I'd like a JK Sentinel, and will probably run both Consular specs. I'd also like to explore the darkside Jaesa's story, so that means probably a Juggernaut to compliment my Marauder.

[BucMan]

Rift was in the same boat 4 months after launch. They consolidated their servers, and now have a solid 1M or so player base. I remember last April folks were saying the game would be F2P before the year was over due to everyone leaving over: Lack of population, lack of add ons, lack of end game content, lack of meaningful ____ (this could be whatever)....

 

Yet it's still going strong, just had it's one year anniversary and doesn't appear to be headed to F2P land. Bioware needs to learn their lessons from them as they did it right(mostly).

 

Games like TOR and Rift do have one problem in it though, and that's players trying to play WoW in it. Once you get rid of the folks trying to do that, the game becomes much better. You just have to be careful and not cater to the wants of forum whiners clamoring for [feature from WoW] to come to their game. I am absolutely LOVING Bioware's stance on the combat log along this line.

[BCBull]

rreserved

[Cerion]

I'm hoping that it does, and fails to such a miraculous degree that it causes the entire industry to collapse and sets the whole thing back to square one. It'll be better for the MMO industry in the long run to get it thrown back in to the hands of the indies.

 

And yet, you continue to pay a subscription to this game that you hope will fail. Logic not your strong suit I see.

[DadadadaBATMAN]

I don't understand why idiots are mourning the death of a game that's thriving. I'm currently leveling my 3rd toon. I'm level 25. I've been able to find a random group for EVERY heroic quest in less than 5 minutes.

 

 

Sorry your server's dead. Reroll to a higher pop or quit whining.

[DiabloDoom]

Stopped reading after this as the OP clearly has no idea what he/she is talking about. Since the inception of the MMO genre, there have been only about half dozen closures out of over a 100 MMOs launched.

 

BioWare isn't going to close down SWTOR. Not even close. Sorry the OP wasted so much space typing up drivel.

 

Your statistics are way off. There way are over 100 MMORPG's that have closed, I couldn't even begin to think of the amount of MMO's that have ended. Also, the amount of MMO's that there are easily exceeds 1,000. Talk about people who don't know what they are talking about.

[Elkay]

You missunderstood the meaning of my 'closure' - I was referring to the decline in server population which will ultimately lead to merging and no, i dont wish this to happen - I am one of the great unwashed that logs in daily (like yourself it sounds like) - No, I am predicting a future I hope never comes.

 

You should read my entire post - I'd be interested in your comments about my conclusions.