NOW = 1.7 Million Active Subscribers | 3 Months from now = Guess What

[Dantragk]

This is how I think it will go:

 

Drop at the for mid/early Feb.

Rise when 1.2 gets pushed.

Drop again after a week - month.

Rise when 1.3 gets pushed.

Drop again after a week - month.

[Mavajo]

Oh boy, you folks predicting ridiculous things like 6MM subscribers by year's end, SWTOR "dominating" the MMO market, etc. are gonna be in for some real disappointment.

 

I'm not surprised at all by SWTOR's fantastic short-term numbers. Why? Because this game offers fantastic short-term fun. But as it's currently constituted, it has minimal long-term viability. You can say "It's new -- they'll come out with new content!" Yes, you're obviously correct. But they're not going to be able to come out with enough content, fast enough to make SWTOR viable long-term. The leveling curve is too short, which is not bad in and of itself (I'm personally sick of leveling grinds) -- the problem is that players are quickly getting to the end-game, and there's just not much there to do. End-game is where you also begin seeing all of SWTOR's bugs settle into focus.

 

SWTOR's fantastic class storylines and voice overs are masking the games flaws. Once you get done with those stories, then all those flaws start coming to the fore. The game lacks long-term viability, and the patching necessary to fix that is far too extensive for SWTOR to fix any time soon. The damage will already be done.

 

You're going to see a sharp decline in next quarter's numbers. The YTD change heading into next year will not be positive. I'm confident of that. I think the game will have enough subscriptions to stay afloat, but that's it. It'll probably settle in around 1.2MM when all is said and done, and will likely follow in the footsteps of the AoC's and Warhammer's that came before it.

[jarjarloves]

I have. It is the game engine. Should think before you post.

 

it's not I have played it on 3 different computers and my newest computer that I built myself has an i7 3.4ghz with a EVGA 560 TI and 8 gigs gskill ram (SSD as well) can run this game with out a single problem.

 

My old 3.4ghz Pentium 4 with a 9800 GTX card and windows xp can get around 30fps in Warzones.

 

 

So no it is not the engine. Perhaps you should think about that before you post such stupid comments.

[jarjarloves]

Oh boy, you folks predicting ridiculous things like 6MM subscribers by year's end, SWTOR "dominating" the MMO market, etc. are gonna be in for some real disappointment.

 

I'm not surprised at all by SWTOR's fantastic short-term numbers. Why? Because this game offers fantastic short-term fun. But as it's currently constituted, it has minimal long-term viability. You can say "It's new -- they'll come out with new content!" Yes, you're obviously correct. But they're not going to be able to come out with enough content, fast enough to make SWTOR viable long-term. The leveling curve is too short, which is not bad in and of itself (I'm personally sick of leveling grinds) -- the problem is that players are quickly getting to the end-game, and there's just not much there to do. End-game is where you also begin seeing all of SWTOR's bugs settle into focus.

 

SWTOR's fantastic class storylines and voice overs are masking the games flaws. Once you get done with those stories, then all those flaws start coming to the fore. The game lacks long-term viability, and the patching necessary to fix that is far too extensive for SWTOR to fix any time soon. The damage will already be done.

 

You're going to see a sharp decline in next quarter's numbers. The YTD change heading into next year will not be positive. I'm confident of that. I think the game will have enough subscriptions to stay afloat, but that's it. It'll probably settle in around 1.2MM when all is said and done, and will likely follow in the footsteps of the AoC's and Warhammer's that came before it.

 

 

Both AoC and WAR where PVP mmos that had lost 75% of their subs by the end of Month 1.

 

So I doubt that is going to happen to SWTOR as it has around what 75% retention rate.

 

not to mention both of those games didn't add a content patch till what 3 months after? WARS first patch was adding in 2 classes that where cut from release with not much else as far as content goes.

Edited February 9, 2012 by jarjarloves

[Aenoria]

it's not I have played it on 3 different computers and my newest computer that I built myself has an i7 3.4ghz with a EVGA 560 TI and 8 gigs gskill ram (SSD as well) can run this game with out a single problem.

 

My old 3.4ghz Pentium 4 with a 9800 GTX card and windows xp can get around 30fps in Warzones.

 

 

So no it is not the engine. Perhaps you should think about that before you post such stupid comments.

 

Prehaps you should go and visit the customer support forums to explore the realm of the 5%. It is the game engine and you know why?

 

The game was made way to heavy I/O bound which for alot of people cause the extreme problems in WZ's / Ilum this is purely due to the fact not using the best way to implement the way the asset files work in this game. Causing a tremedous amount of lag and fps drop while waiting for the files to constantly get loaded into the game.

 

For more information: http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=249030

[jarjarloves]

Prehaps you should go and visit the customer support forums to explore the realm of the 5%. It is the game engine and you know why?

 

The game was made way to heavy I/O bound which for alot of people cause the extreme problems in WZ's / Ilum this is purely due to the fact not using the best way to implement the way the asset files work in this game. Causing a tremedous amount of lag and fps drop while waiting for the files to constantly get loaded into the game.

 

For more information: http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=249030

 

if it was the games engine then everyone would be having the problem.

[Guarrand]

Oh boy, you folks predicting ridiculous things like 6MM subscribers by year's end, SWTOR "dominating" the MMO market, etc. are gonna be in for some real disappointment.

 

I'm not surprised at all by SWTOR's fantastic short-term numbers. Why? Because this game offers fantastic short-term fun. But as it's currently constituted, it has minimal long-term viability. You can say "It's new -- they'll come out with new content!" Yes, you're obviously correct. But they're not going to be able to come out with enough content, fast enough to make SWTOR viable long-term. The leveling curve is too short, which is not bad in and of itself (I'm personally sick of leveling grinds) -- the problem is that players are quickly getting to the end-game, and there's just not much there to do. End-game is where you also begin seeing all of SWTOR's bugs settle into focus.

 

SWTOR's fantastic class storylines and voice overs are masking the games flaws. Once you get done with those stories, then all those flaws start coming to the fore. The game lacks long-term viability, and the patching necessary to fix that is far too extensive for SWTOR to fix any time soon. The damage will already be done.

 

You're going to see a sharp decline in next quarter's numbers. The YTD change heading into next year will not be positive. I'm confident of that. I think the game will have enough subscriptions to stay afloat, but that's it. It'll probably settle in around 1.2MM when all is said and done, and will likely follow in the footsteps of the AoC's and Warhammer's that came before it.

 

When the game stays like this... i agree.

But i dont agree with your premise that they wont be able to dish out new content fast enough.

 

i really hate to do it, but if i compare it to WoW at the same stage, it ALREADY has more content then WoW.

WoW didnt make it this far on new content, rather they did on new features and classes and races.

WoW never was about content. The only content endgame was .. raids and later.. heroic dungeons... which were all a mask for... gathering epic 1337 gear.

 

The things that kept WoW afloat were all the little extra features, special quests, achievements (hell, that one blew the door open again..), Arena/Rankings and the occasional expansion or world event.

 

I am sure Bioware has this planned aswell.

I am sure that there will be world/universe events, Arena type gameplay, achievements and special questlines etc.. (which are already there in small ammounts.. Bonus missions etc..)

 

Combine that with new planets, new classes/races and expanding on features for Guilds, customization etc... and this game will rise to great heights.

 

If they DONT add these things... which a blind donkey can see are necessary to remain competative and attractive to new/current members... then SWTOR wont see its second year.

Then again, i scale Bioware higher then a blind donkey.... more between drunk elephants and flying horses

Edited February 9, 2012 by Guarrand

[Mortalha]

I believe some fanboy out there is rich enough to buy 2 milion copys and pay all the subs just to pretend this is a fantastic game.. I mean, a decent game. Which it isn't.

[Nemmar]

I believe the game has room to grow, but at the current rate of sales it wont get more than 300-400k subs increase in the next 3 months.

Once the game releases on asia though... the userbase is certainly gonna rise up a few millions.

[Guarrand]

I believe some fanboy out there is rich enough to buy 2 milion copys and pay all the subs just to pretend this is a fantastic game.. I mean, a decent game. Which it isn't.

it would be funny if you were trying to be funny.... but you really believe that dont ya?.. just to be able to say "fanboy".

 

[Krayus]

it's not I have played it on 3 different computers and my newest computer that I built myself has an i7 3.4ghz with a EVGA 560 TI and 8 gigs gskill ram (SSD as well) can run this game with out a single problem.

 

My old 3.4ghz Pentium 4 with a 9800 GTX card and windows xp can get around 30fps in Warzones.

 

 

So no it is not the engine. Perhaps you should think about that before you post such stupid comments.

 

Really should take your own advice. I get no problems with ANY other game. I play an MMO with HIGHER system requirements than this game, no problems when using bloom or shadows and the graphics settings are maxed.

 

It's the game engine as well as the other second process screwing things up.

Edited February 9, 2012 by Krayus

[Mortalha]

it would be funny if you were trying to be funny.... but you really believe that dont ya?.. just to be able to say "fanboy".

 

 

Wasn't trying to be funny... I just have the right to spit on this forums as I like, since I payed 55 euros for a game that was hyped like anything else and it ends been totally crap.

 

I can also think of over 9000 different crap to spit about this game, just to use the word fanboy... fanboy

[jarjarloves]

Really should take your own advice. I get no problems with ANY other game. I play an MMO with HIGHER system requirements than this game, no problems when using bloom or shadows and the graphics settings are maxed.

 

It's the game engine as well as the other second process screwing things up.

 

again if it was the games engine EVERYONE would be having the problem.

[Marlaine]

Anything over a million after the first month is incredible for a mmo. For all intents and purposes SWTOR is a huge success, and I think they have a great foundation to build on. Now they just need to keep churning out lvl 50 content. I sure hope that they develop more max level non-raid content though. Edited February 9, 2012 by Marlaine

[Sernon]

Even a steady line would be sublime, more would wipe the floor!

 

---

[Trenter]

I believe some fanboy out there is rich enough to buy 2 milion copys and pay all the subs just to pretend this is a fantastic game.. I mean, a decent game. Which it isn't.

 

Some people are rich for sure. There's even a bunch of hipster-hater-bandwagoneers here paying for a sub just to prentend on the forums that this is a bad game. Which it isn't.

 

Like you.

[GalacticKegger]

Some people are rich for sure. There's even a bunch of hipster-hater-bandwagoneers here paying for a sub just to prentend on the forums that this is a bad game. Which it isn't.

 

Like you.

LMAO! Good stuff.

[Dekadez]

some number <=> 1.7m.... It is impossible to predict the future.

 

Wrong. It's impossible to completely, accurately predict the future. But it is possible to make valid predictions about future occurrences.

[Jett-Rinn]

Some people are rich for sure. There's even a bunch of hipster-hater-bandwagoneers here paying for a sub just to prentend on the forums that this is a bad game. Which it isn't.

 

Like you.

 

This^ oh so very very much this^

 

 

BRAVO!

[Dekadez]

Well given the current graph, we have 2 million who bought the game.

 

We have 1.7 million who paid a subscription after their free month.

 

Where do we go from here?

 

These are MONSTER Subscription rates.

 

This shows that SWTOR is not only here to stay, but OWNS THE MMO MARKET CURRENTLY!!

 

 

If you are an investor, then why wouldn't you feel comfortable investing in SWTOR? I noticed a great sense of calm after the EA Stockholder and Investment meeting.

 

It means that the development costs are already paid off and they are turning profit now.

 

 

My God. Already past their break even point? After the release and 1 month of payments? With the gargantuan amount of costs both in development/production as in marketing?

 

 

Indeed it dropped from 18.5 to 19.25

 

Because we all know these daily fluctuations are relevant. Look at the 3-6 month picture, and you'll see a downward trend.

 

I originally predicted close to 6 million subscribers after their first year.

 

 

SIX MILLION in an MMO market that is becoming more and more fragmented every year? WoW had no serious competition for the larger part of its life cycle. The market conditions today are something entirely different. To steal that much market share from Blizzard, Bio/EA will have to invest historical amounts of money in advertising, upping their SoV to a 5-10 fold of their current, or even target, SoM.

With declining EA shares, and a steady but lower than expected surge of subscribers, I don't see that happening. Ever. Let alone the fact that they already have a massive amount of costs to compensate, without factoring in post-production marcom budgets.

 

Yeah but everyone is scratching their heads at the Panda Bear expansion, I think it will be the final nail in their coffin.

 

People were scratching their hineys at Draenei and Blood Elves too, they scratched theirs at being able to kill the Lich King or the Death Knight class too and they scratched theirs at all the changes Cataclysm brought to the table.

 

If we can learn one thing, it's that the amount of moaning and complaining about a future installment of World of Warcraft is by no means a valid predictor of the success of that future installment.

 

WOW is already dead. They simply manage to continue cashing in on subscription fees after the killer got away.

 

WoW isn't dead. It's simply nearing the end of an already long and prosperous life cycle, which is only a natural evolution. Expansions can try to revive the product by making changes, appealing to new and other target groups, but you can't renew your product life cycle infinitely. At one point, it will have to decline, and you have to release a new product.

 

At this moment, and tonight will again confirm that when the numbers get out, WoW is still a cash cow Blizzard/Activision will milk: High market share, low potential growth.

 

Bottom line: Threads like these are useless. 95% Of you don't have enough of a background in business strategy or marketing to even make an educated guess, or even make a statement that could hit close to home. I won't even make a prediction, since I'm not familiar enough with the MMO industry to predict the evolution of subscribers. I however am knowledgeable in the fields of both marketing, BD and strategic management to at least somewhat analyze the field this specific product is operating in.

Just like I'll never mingle in IT related discussions on these boards, of which there are most likely a larger amount of people possessing significant theoretical (or practical) knowledge, because I don't how the **** they create a video game.

 

We have a saying in Dutch: Schoenmaker, blijf bij je leest. Let the cobbler stick to his last, I think it is in English.

 

They doubled server capacity.

 

Possibly true, yet I experience (and I hear it from a lot of other people on different servers) that the zones one would expect to be populated (Fleet, Ilum, starting areas and Coruscant/Kaas) are not as highly populated as they used to be several weeks ago. We had a consistent double instance on Fleet, same as Kaas and Ilum last week on Legions of Lettow EU/PVP. Now, we have 1 instance of 94 people on the Fleet, Kaas harbors 30 players and Ilum also consists of one instance.

 

If numbers aren't declining, I simply wonder where all these people went? Do they log in less, but play 'harder' during that time?

I had to take a break in the beginning of january, and just came back, and my alt, which is at Nar Shaddaa right now, counts 24 people, one instance. Before taking that break, I recall me and my brother having to swap instances to play together. While it's logical that the bulk of players are getting to the higher level areas by now, they are less populated than before.

 

All of this is from a personal experience standpoint obviously. Legions of Lettow was one of 3 extremely high populated EU PvP servers, yet now it feels almost empty at times (in comparison). Things might be entirely different on other servers though, yet I've heard the same stories.

 

 

A game that is supposedly exploding like this...does not drop the price of the game this early after release.

 

This bothered me too. EA/Bioware is already resorting to price competition, which is strange considering how 'easy' it is to differentiate based on product features and functions in video gaming.

 

 

 

Is this the latest troll attempt? A retailer has the game on sale so clearly the price is dropping because the game is failing? EA didn't drop the price, Amazon did. List price is still $59.95. Still costs $59.99 if you buy it from EA.

 

And what do you think it means if a retailer drops the price of a product? It can hardly be because it is selling well at or above expectations now?

 

Massive online retailers like Amazon already making price cuts is not a good signal.

 

_____

 

TLDR? I don't care, your loss.

Edited February 9, 2012 by Parali
rude

[Dekadez]

And an infraction asking me not to post further criticism. It's one communication debacle after the other, to a point of censorship on the boards.

I'd rather not have a forum moderator edit out certain parts of my post because he does not like what he is reading. I'll re-edit the post to its previous state, since it mentioned nothing conflicting with the terms of the message board.

Edited February 9, 2012 by Dekadez

[Paganini]

300k.

[MattieP]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that 1.7 will stay where it's at, or only grow to 2 million.

 

 

Once the first "large" content patch or expansion is released, I expect it to jump up significantly, as that draws alot of new people, and older people who've cancelled their accounts.

[iheartnyc]

My God. Already past their break even point? After the release and 1 month of payments? With the gargantuan amount of costs both in development/production as in marketing?

 

At 2 million copies sold (2 x 60) = 120 million recouped out of total all-in costs of 150-200 million. Mostly recouped costs in 1 month = STELLER business model for any company. A similar tech or commercial real estate project may take 5-15 years to recoup costs (which is why the costs of such projects are amortized over time for the tax and accounting benefit).

 

Because we all know these daily fluctuations are relevant. Look at the 3-6 month picture, and you'll see a downward trend.

 

You have no idea how to analyze stock price do you? Stock price trends are the worst indicator of success in the market. Worst. Nobody looks at them other than wannabe day traders. If you want a quick and dirty way to analyze stocks, at ;east take a look at the 52week range. Or take the 2 year average and do that crazy divide by weekly average stock price gimmick touted by some traders. Better yet, do what real analysts do (look at earnigs, EBITDA, industry comparables).

 

SIX MILLION in an MMO market that is becoming more and more fragmented every year? WoW had no serious competition for the larger part of its life cycle. The market conditions today are something entirely different. To steal that much market share from Blizzard, Bio/EA will have to invest historical amounts of money in advertising, upping their SoV to a 5-10 fold of their current, or even target, SoM.

 

WoW is losing something like 800,000 subscribers every 3 months according to their latest press release from this week. They lost something over 2 million subscribers in 2011.

 

http://www.pcworld.com/article/243465/world_of_warcraft_loses_2_million_subscribers_in_a_year.html

 

With declining EA shares, and a steady but lower than expected surge of subscribers, I don't see that happening. Ever. Let alone the fact that they already have a massive amount of costs to compensate,

 

By some estimates, have already recouped over half of their costs in 1 month...and what does EA's share price have to do with success of SWTOR? Nada.

 

 

WoW isn't dead. It's simply nearing the end of an already long and prosperous life cycle, which is only a natural evolution...At one point, it will have to decline, and you have to release a new product...At this moment, and tonight will again confirm that when the numbers get out, WoW is still a cash cow Blizzard/Activision will milk: High market share, low potential growth.

 

 

In nature, we call this "dying." The point of WoW's decline began sometime in 2H 2010. And no, it's not "low potential growth." You meant, "alarming rate of decline".

 

Bottom line: Threads like these are useless. 95% Of you don't have enough of a background in business strategy or marketing to even make an educated guess...I however am knowledgeable in the fields of both marketing, BD and strategic management to at least somewhat analyze the field this specific product is operating in.

 

I get paid high six figures to "make educated guesses." Want to fight?

 

Also, as I was reading your post, I kept thinking...man, this guy sounds like those annoying continental European interns I run across from time to time...I checked your bio, voila! Belgium! I want to hear more about your "knowledgeableness" in the fields of "marketing, bd and strategic management." I didn't realize there existed a career field or major at University, that lets you focus on all 3. Which leads me to believe you either...read a book, or...you are a first year student at Uni in the business program...?

 

EA/Bioware is already resorting to price competition, which is strange considering how 'easy' it is to differentiate based on product features and functions in video gaming.

 

Because...it's a business? "Resorting to price competition." What does this mean? Really. You mean, how to price a product in-line with market expectations and demands? A publicly listed US company should be allowed to do this, right?

 

And what do you think it means if a retailer drops the price of a product? It can hardly be because it is selling well at or above expectations now?.

 

I didn't know you were a management consultant. To answer your question, it can mean a lot of things. For some products, the company expects to lose money on the actual product itself, and recoup its costs on the subsequent service. The subsequent service being the largest source of revenue and cashflows. Companies which do this typically have high cash or capital reserves, or other sources of cash flows (EA also makes a lot of popular sports games and other games) and can afford to do so.

 

 

Massive online retailers like Amazon already making price cuts is not a good signal.

 

And now the analysis turns to Amazone prices...yawn.

Edited February 10, 2012 by iheartnyc

[skotish]

600k i might be still here who knows