Stelakh Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 The last you should be giving is stock advice when you don't even understand the report released this week as evidenced by your earlier post in this thread. The 1.7m subscribers is current, not as of 12/31. The question I have is how many of those 1.7 million subscribers are people who had intended to cancel, but forgot or were caught up in the bug that wouldn't let them unsubscribe? Given those two scenarios (both of which have been discussed on these forums), it's hard to have any faith that the numbers they've released are realistic. I think it'll take a couple of months for things to level out before any truly substantially relevant figures show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selaik Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 (edited) The question I have is how many of those 1.7 million subscribers are people who had intended to cancel, but forgot or were caught up in the bug that wouldn't let them unsubscribe? Given those two scenarios (both of which have been discussed on these forums), it's hard to have any faith that the numbers they've released are realistic. I think it'll take a couple of months for things to level out before any truly substantially relevant figures show up. at lease 1.6 million , what do you think dose that sound about right? Edited February 5, 2012 by Selaik Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Touchbass Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 (edited) The question I have is how many of those 1.7 million subscribers are people who had intended to cancel, but forgot or were caught up in the bug that wouldn't let them unsubscribe? Given those two scenarios (both of which have been discussed on these forums), it's hard to have any faith that the numbers they've released are realistic. I think it'll take a couple of months for things to level out before any truly substantially relevant figures show up. Ok, the two points you chose to argue are beyond terrible and your grasping for straws. The key numbers we should be looking at is the average retention rates after a few months from other big ticket MMORPG's. I think it's somewhere around 40-45%, so this game will most likely hold anywhere between 900k-1.1 million in the next few months. Unfortunately the community is not sold on this game yet, it has a loyal fan base it's very optomistic to say all 1.7 million are satisfied customers. My personal fun guesses are a loyal base of 500k who will play the game no matter what, another 700k who will play depending on upcoming changes and the rest are out. Edited February 5, 2012 by Touchbass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VonSoot Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 (edited) 500k total, game will be dead February 2013. Edited February 5, 2012 by VonSoot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selaik Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 500k total, game will be dead February 2013. wow lotto # plz ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MercArcher Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 500k total, game will be dead February 2013. Game will be dead far before feb 2013 unless they make drastic changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gurugeorge Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 (edited) The question I have is how many of those 1.7 million subscribers are people who had intended to cancel, but forgot or were caught up in the bug that wouldn't let them unsubscribe? Given those two scenarios (both of which have been discussed on these forums), it's hard to have any faith that the numbers they've released are realistic. I think it'll take a couple of months for things to level out before any truly substantially relevant figures show up. These types of caveats are common across MMO numbers. If all companies fudge and weasel a wee bit (which they obviously will do whenever they can), then the fudging anmd weaselling cancels out and the numbers still give a valid comparison. By standard MMO to MMO comparisons (with all of them fudging and weaselling as much as they can get away with ) SWTOR is undoubtedly doing very well at 1.7m. I stand by a slight dip to come, down to about 1.5m, as the lot who are really disgruntled finally leave, and then a rise to 2m or slightly over by the end of the year. In before cries of "oh but Blizzard wouldn't fudge or weasel!" Oh no, a company that regularly quotes 10 or 11 million subscribers, when the majority of them are actually pay as you go "subscriptions" via Asian internet cafes isn't fudging and weaselling. (What's that I hear? Blizz don't "have" to do that because they do have a genuine 3-4 mil proper subscriptions? True, but then no company has to fudge or weasel, but they all do, it's like a nervous tic.) Edited February 5, 2012 by gurugeorge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kurfer Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 The devs for this game seem incompetent; I predict the number to keep falling. I really think the entire dev team would benefit if the bioware CEO would pitch in an give them all blizzcon tickets. Think of how much they can learn during dev brain sharing sessions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hardways Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 500k total, game will be dead February 2013. Dumb >.> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liquidacid Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 The devs for this game seem incompetent; I predict the number to keep falling. I really think the entire dev team would benefit if the bioware CEO would pitch in an give them all blizzcon tickets. Think of how much they can learn during dev brain sharing sessions. yes they could learn how to dumb down the game to the point kids with cerebral palsy breeze through it and how to shoehorn decade old internet memes into their advertising campains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Safiir Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I really think the entire dev team would benefit if the bioware CEO would pitch in an give them all blizzcon tickets. Think of how much they can learn during dev brain sharing sessions. Too bad there's no blizzcon this year, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palenen Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 They still have the opportunity to grow. I guess it depends on if they add in features that people like and don't mind doing over and over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emeda Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 yes they could learn how to dumb down the game to the point kids with cerebral palsy breeze through it and how to shoehorn decade old internet memes into their advertising campains Or how to actually fix bugs in a timely manor. It wasn't so easy in the beginning and took 5 years+ to become hello panda island. Give this game some time its new. With the easiness of this game now in 7 years DS LFR would seem like Ultra nightmare mode in comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrandonSM Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 As more and more people hit endgame and find out that there is VERY LITTLE to do besides roll alts, people will start dropping. Guaranteed... 750,000 would be a very high number...I doubt it will even be that much......And I am a fan of this game... /shrug No content, no subs....... Bio failed on this Were a month into the game... holy cow. And we've already got new FP's and a huge update planned for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drewser Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I see the clueless haters are still going strong. Funny stuff to read in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gohlar Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 (edited) I see the clueless haters are still going strong. Funny stuff to read in this thread. Seriously, how can people can claim nobody is leaving? It's just funny. Edited February 6, 2012 by Gohlar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Additc Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Seriously, how can people can claim nobody is leaving? It's just funny. Well its a MMO people are always leaving. People are always joining. WoW didnt take off till over a year later and when people heard Blizzard a RTS devolper was making a MMO the internet was aflame with how they could not do it and EQ2 would put them to shame. I am pretty sure we all know how that turned out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiskyJax Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Seriously, how can people can claim nobody is leaving? It's just funny. Not saying they aren't really but its really not any worse then saying everyone is leaving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnExponent Posted February 6, 2012 Author Share Posted February 6, 2012 Game will be dead far before feb 2013 unless they make drastic changes.Don't know about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonobiwan Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 As more and more people hit endgame and find out that there is VERY LITTLE to do besides roll alts, people will start dropping. Guaranteed... 750,000 would be a very high number...I doubt it will even be that much......And I am a fan of this game... /shrug No content, no subs....... Bio failed on this All new MMO's lack endgame content that will come so how is this a failure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icebaron Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Alot less if they cant get customer service to reply withing a week. I waited for three weeks for some CS to tell me they could not prove my three week old claim. They didn't say it, but I KNOW it's because they can't check records that far back. Not blaming them for not keeping records, blaming them for not responding in three freaking weeks. WoW can get a cs in game talking to you within four hours with 12 million subs, Bioware takes 3 weeks with over ten million less. There is no word to describe how pathetic this is, pathetic alone doesn't do it justice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonobiwan Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Game will be dead far before feb 2013 unless they make drastic changes. No it won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharagonIGN Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Let see, sold over Two Million copies... has lost more than 300,000 subscribers since then. Will probably lose another 200,000 by the time February is over. My guess it that the game will bleed people as more and more hit 50. Incoming subscriptions won't be enough to compensate, and it'll level off somewhere between 1.5 and 1 million by April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonobiwan Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Let see, sold over Two Million copies... has lost more than 300,000 subscribers since then. Will probably lose another 200,000 by the time February is over. My guess it that the game will bleed people as more and more hit 50. Incoming subscriptions won't be enough to compensate, and it'll level off somewhere between 1.5 and 1 million by April. Most MMO's loose around that much after free month and I don't see that many more leaving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drewser Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Seriously, how can people can claim nobody is leaving? It's just funny. You trying to move to the head of the hater class? All I have to say is fastest MMO to 1m subs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts