Official: Over 1.7 million active subs, 2 + mil sold

[Knyghtprowler]

Well since they have all this success, maybe they can afford some more staff to fix and ad all the crap they are missing.

 

Lots of win in this post.

[gregordunbar]

They would have said 2.2 if thats what it was i imagine it was anywhere from 2-2.1 because regardless of retention those sales numbers would be good news for investors as even if 5 million ppl bought the game 1.7 mill is still a really solid sub number regardless of how many people bought the game.

 

Thats not the case for investors.

 

An investor will look at total cost of development + total sales + sustained income from sales - cost to keep the game running = return to profit on investment.

 

Its in the companies best interest to squew the numbers to the postive side if there investor fear.

 

1 million regular editions sold = 59,900,000 so at least 118,000,000 was made from sales

 

game develoment cost over 200 million

 

To an investor, retention rate is extremely important because 1.7 million people paying 15 a month is only 25.5 million a month. Factor in the server/bandwidth costs and the cost of retaining people to work on the game and the monthly profit drops. With this amount of players its going to take close to a year to make a profit, now factor in how many other games in MMO history lost a decent chuck of players over its first year.

 

An investor will look at how long is it going to take to make a profit and really does not care about anything else. Its cold hard numbers and nothing more. The next 2-3 months will be the deciding factor because that is when players are more likely to lose interest if the games replayablity can hold them and if Bioware can keep people at end game happy or not.

[Safiir]

game develoment cost over 200 million

 

There's no official statement about the development cost. Every number that has been thrown is pure speculation. The only official statement is the 500k subs being a break even point.

[Wolfeisberg]

Thats not the case for investors.

 

An investor will look at total cost of development + total sales + sustained income from sales - cost to keep the game running = return to profit on investment.

 

Its in the companies best interest to squew the numbers to the postive side if there investor fear.

 

1 million regular editions sold = 59,900,000 so at least 118,000,000 was made from sales

 

game develoment cost over 200 million

 

To an investor, retention rate is extremely important because 1.7 million people paying 15 a month is only 25.5 million a month. Factor in the server/bandwidth costs and the cost of retaining people to work on the game and the monthly profit drops. With this amount of players its going to take close to a year to make a profit, now factor in how many other games in MMO history lost a decent chuck of players over its first year.

 

An investor will look at how long is it going to take to make a profit and really does not care about anything else. Its cold hard numbers and nothing more. The next 2-3 months will be the deciding factor because that is when players are more likely to lose interest if the games replayablity can hold them and if Bioware can keep people at end game happy or not.

 

Watch this video

First 2.5 minutes of it.

 

The costs you are talking about of server/bandwidth including the people to work on the game is not very much of the $15.00 per month.

[gregordunbar]

There's no official statement about the development cost. Every number that has been thrown is pure speculation. The only official statement is the 500k subs being a break even point.

 

I suggest you go listen to the last EA investor conference call. The development cost is something few companies talk about with their players but have no choice but talk about with the people who invest money. and BTW, your 500k subs being break even came out of an interview back in Feburary of last year (by technology tell) and gave no time table of WHEN the game could become profitable.

 

And BTW, I am not talking as if I think this game is a failure here...

[wifeaggro]

REDWOOD CITY, Calif., Feb 01, 2012 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- --Highest Operating Cash Flow in 31 Quarters

 

--More Than $1 Billion in Non-GAAP Digital Revenue in Calendar Year 2011

 

--Battlefield 3 and FIFA 12 Each Sells-Through Over 10 Million Units

 

--Origin Generates $100 Million in Calendar Year 2011

 

--Star Wars: The Old Republic Has More Than 1.7 Million Active Subscribers

 

Electronic Arts Inc. EA -0.89% today announced preliminary financial results for its third fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2011.

 

"We are pleased to report a strong holiday quarter driven by Battlefield 3, FIFA12 and a strong showing by our digital games and services," said Chief Executive Officer John Riccitiello. "Star Wars: The Old Republic is developing a committed community of players with more than 1.7 million active subscribers and growing."

 

"We recorded our highest operating cash flow in 31 quarters and grew segment share in both Europe and North America," said Eric Brown, Chief Financial Officer. "Third quarter non-GAAP digital revenue grew 79% year-over year, and we achieved our goal of generating over $1 billion in non-GAAP digital revenue on a trailing-twelve-month basis."

 

Selected Operating Highlights and Metrics:

 

-- Star Wars®: The Old Republic has generated 1.7 million active subscribers and sold through more than 2 million units in a little over one month.

Just so everyone is aware that when they talk about active subscriptions they are talking about the end of fiscal Qrtr 3 which ended on Dec 31st. There are no current active subscription numbers for this Qrtr yet. so by dec 31st roughly 3 weeks after Early access they saw a 15 % burn off of active subs compared to 2 million in sales. lets just end the debate we will see the numbers at the end of this current Qrtr and that will give us the true picture of retention. jus stop the boot licking and lets give some constructive feedback to get the game devolping in the right direction.

[Drewser]

Just so everyone is aware that when they talk about active subscriptions they are talking about the end of fiscal Qrtr 3 which ended on Dec 31st. There are no current active subscription numbers for this Qrtr yet. so by dec 31st roughly 3 weeks after Early access they saw a 15 % burn off of active subs compared to 2 million in sales. lets just end the debate we will see the numbers at the end of this current Qrtr and that will give us the true picture of retention. jus stop the boot licking and lets give some constructive feedback to get the game devolping in the right direction.

 

No they are not. The statement I have underlined has been proven wrong 100s of times already.

[Safiir]

and BTW, your 500k subs being break even came out of an interview back in Feburary of last year (by technology tell) and gave no time table of WHEN the game could become profitable.

 

http://www.darthhater.com/articles/swtor-news/19915-electronic-arts-q3-fy12-earnings-call

[Selaik]

Just so everyone is aware that when they talk about active subscriptions they are talking about the end of fiscal Qrtr 3 which ended on Dec 31st. There are no current active subscription numbers for this Qrtr yet. so by dec 31st roughly 3 weeks after Early access they saw a 15 % burn off of active subs compared to 2 million in sales. lets just end the debate we will see the numbers at the end of this current Qrtr and that will give us the true picture of retention. jus stop the boot licking and lets give some constructive feedback to get the game devolping in the right direction.

 

Again same argument made 1000 times and has been proven wrong 1000000 times .

[Wolfeisberg]

I suggest you go listen to the last EA investor conference call. The development cost is something few companies talk about with their players but have no choice but talk about with the people who invest money. and BTW, your 500k subs being break even came out of an interview back in Feburary of last year (by technology tell) and gave no time table of WHEN the game could become profitable.

 

And BTW, I am not talking as if I think this game is a failure here...

 

How about the 500K for break even was said again just 41 hours ago

 

http://www.darthhater.com/articles/swtor-news/19915-electronic-arts-q3-fy12-earnings-call

[Runeshard]

Just so everyone is aware that when they talk about active subscriptions they are talking about the end of fiscal Qrtr 3 which ended on Dec 31st. There are no current active subscription numbers for this Qrtr yet. so by dec 31st roughly 3 weeks after Early access they saw a 15 % burn off of active subs compared to 2 million in sales. lets just end the debate we will see the numbers at the end of this current Qrtr and that will give us the true picture of retention. jus stop the boot licking and lets give some constructive feedback to get the game devolping in the right direction.

 

The following is taken from the quote you yourself used:

-- Star Wars®: The Old Republic has generated 1.7 million active subscribers and sold through more than 2 million units in a little over one month.

 

The game released the 20th Dec, there is no way that can be considered little over one month if those figures are from the 31st of Dec. Furthermore:

 

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ERTS/1672636375x0x539144/d895626f-e715-4f00-bd50-31bf095027fd/Q3_Script_-_20_2112_1251pm.pdf

 

Page 6:

To date, we have sold through more than 2 million units.

Page 10:

As John stated, we have sold through two million units of the game since December.

We currently have a little over 1.7 million active subscribers. The rest have either not started

playing yet or have opted out.

They wouldn't say things like "to date" and "currently" if those figures were from December.

 

Edited February 3, 2012 by Runeshard

[wifeaggro]

The following is taken from the quote you yourself used:

 

 

The game released the 20st Dec, there is no way that can be considered little over one month if those figures are from the 31st of Dec. Furthermore:

 

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ERTS/1672636375x0x539144/d895626f-e715-4f00-bd50-31bf095027fd/Q3_Script_-_20_2112_1251pm.pdf

 

Page 6:

 

Page 10:

 

They wouldn't say things like "to date" and "currently" if those figures were from December.

 

Edit: At this point I'm sure you know this already and that you're spreading misinformation on purpose. Hopefully no one will fall for it.

 

He was giving the investors call to give the qrtr's end profit! that qrtr ended on Dec 31st. he cannot comment on this qrtr legally! Beleive what you want. this thread is pointless any way and is not making the game better just causing a war between haters and blind fanboi's . personally your both wrong i plan on living in reality.

[gregordunbar]

Watch this video

First 2.5 minutes of it.

 

The costs you are talking about of server/bandwidth including the people to work on the game is not very much of the $15.00 per month.

 

You are using a video of a company that OWNS their servers and using it as if everyone owns their servers and with a game with microtransactions which brings in massive amounts of money for overseas games...hell, bullfrog made a bigger profit off of them just with Runes of Magic than every single MMORPG except WoW. Even Atlantica Online makes almost 15 million a month in profits from them!

 

Those games dont need a monthly rate because they make their revenue from microtransactions.

 

You do not do any stock investing at all...Companies like EA and Blizzard spend millions a year renting servers from 3rd parties (over all their games), if you have EVER done any actual investing yourself you would know this by reading their expense reports. The highest cost does come from contniued development, even if Bioware only retains half the staff from main development, it will be a staff of over 200 people but they then have to add customer service staff they did not have during main development.

 

Around 1 months worth of subscriptions will go to covering the costs of continuing develpment for a year which still places a return to profit at the range of 10 months which is what I said before and its what the analists and investor groups say.

[Runeshard]

He was giving the investors call to give the qrtr's end profit! that qrtr ended on Dec 31st. he cannot comment on this qrtr legally! Beleive what you want. this thread is pointless any way and is not making the game better just causing a war between haters and blind fanboi's . personally your both wrong i plan on living in reality.

 

I think you're wrong. Why else would they say things like "in little over a month" "to date" and "currently"? Saying you plan on living in reality makes no sense when you keep aiming for the second star on the right.

[Drewser]

He was giving the investors call to give the qrtr's end profit! that qrtr ended on Dec 31st. he cannot comment on this qrtr legally! Beleive what you want. this thread is pointless any way and is not making the game better just causing a war between haters and blind fanboi's . personally your both wrong i plan on living in reality.

 

You are so wrong it is hilarious. This must be your first experience with a quarterly earnings call.

 

You are in fantasy land and REFUSE to come to reality.

[gregordunbar]

How about the 500K for break even was said again just 41 hours ago

 

http://www.darthhater.com/articles/swtor-news/19915-electronic-arts-q3-fy12-earnings-call

 

Which he had to say because of...

 

http://www.technologytell.com/gaming/67580/ea-denies-300-million-development-cost-for-star-wars-the-old-republic

 

"However, he thinks only 500,000 subscribers would be enough for the game to make money"

 

That is why it came out of the "prepared comments" document AND THAT IT CLEARLY SAYS "At 500,000 subscribers, we'd break even" but does NOT say WHEN. It will take around 10 months, less if the game keeps selling, I have no doubt they WILL, this isnt about fail, its about what investors are thinking in terms of how long it will take.

[Wolfeisberg]

He was giving the investors call to give the qrtr's end profit! that qrtr ended on Dec 31st. he cannot comment on this qrtr legally! Beleive what you want. this thread is pointless any way and is not making the game better just causing a war between haters and blind fanboi's . personally your both wrong i plan on living in reality.

 

he can talk about what is currently happening. he can say, legally, that they have sold up to that point 2 million copies, and they currently have 1.7 million subscribers. It is common for companies to tell investors on what is currently happening, that is kind of how the whole stock market works, they don't just rely on information form the last quarter or even the last year, they also rely on any current information as well.

[Safiir]

Which he had to say because of...

 

http://www.technologytell.com/gaming/67580/ea-denies-300-million-development-cost-for-star-wars-the-old-republic

 

"However, he thinks only 500,000 subscribers would be enough for the game to make money"

 

That is why it came out of the "prepared comments" document AND THAT IT CLEARLY SAYS "At 500,000 subscribers, we'd break even" but does NOT say WHEN. It will take around 10 months, less if the game keeps selling, I have no doubt they WILL, this isnt about fail, its about what investors are thinking in terms of how long it will take.

 

You may be right. Or you may be wrong. There is no solid proof either way. Which is why you should've skipped the 200m development cost (since you have no way of knowing if it's accurate or not) and went straight to the "when will it be profitable with 500k subs" argument.

[SDFX]

Simply because a company is legally prohibited from directly lying in financial statements does not prevent them from presenting their numbers in such a way as to spin appearances falsely. They presented large numbers that read well on paper and leave investors feeling well while revealing nothing too detailed… LOL This is nothing new in the financial world.

 

Based on past games, it really is too early to predict this game’s future viability. It “looks” promising in my personal magic 8 ball but I want to see how they are really doing in May and June of this year. However, I feel safe in saying that it is the best MMORPG launch in gaming history from purchases to handling of issues.

[Wolfeisberg]

You are using a video of a company that OWNS their servers and using it as if everyone owns their servers and with a game with microtransactions which brings in massive amounts of money for overseas games...hell, bullfrog made a bigger profit off of them just with Runes of Magic than every single MMORPG except WoW. Even Atlantica Online makes almost 15 million a month in profits from them!

 

Those games dont need a monthly rate because they make their revenue from microtransactions.

 

You do not do any stock investing at all...Companies like EA and Blizzard spend millions a year renting servers from 3rd parties (over all their games), if you have EVER done any actual investing yourself you would know this by reading their expense reports. The highest cost does come from contniued development, even if Bioware only retains half the staff from main development, it will be a staff of over 200 people but they then have to add customer service staff they did not have during main development.

 

Around 1 months worth of subscriptions will go to covering the costs of continuing develpment for a year which still places a return to profit at the range of 10 months which is what I said before and its what the analists and investor groups say.

 

/facepalm, watch the video again, he uses NCsoft and Blizzard in his examples for costs.

[Scritty]

I think it's a pretty good given that this game is now a massive success. The people who disagree can not argue with logic and facts. The data speaks more volumes then anyone sitting at home in their arm chair can disagree.

 

 

http://www.mmo-junkies.net/backend/applications_addon/other/statistics/db/population/overall-yearly-big.png

 

 

What facts would they be then?

 

Not any other than those reported by EA - who have a very strong vested interest in keeping their shareholders quiet.

 

Still - you know best.

 

I'll be back when it's F2P....in about 12 months.

 

Scritty

Edited February 3, 2012 by Scritty

[Wolfeisberg]

http://www.mmo-junkies.net/backend/applications_addon/other/statistics/db/population/overall-yearly-big.png

 

 

What facts would they be then?

 

Not any other than those reported by EA - who have a very strong vested interest in keeping their shareholders quiet.

 

Still - you know best.

 

I'll be back when it's F2P....in about 12 months.

 

Scritty

 

Hmm lets see, Warhammer Online just over 3 years old, lost most of it subscriber base in a couple of months, nearly half of their subscriber base in the first month, an EA/Bioware MMO, yet it is not Free To Play. Yet you think that this game will go Free to Play in 12 months?

[wifeaggro]

Simply because a company is legally prohibited from directly lying in financial statements does not prevent them from presenting their numbers in such a way as to spin appearances falsely. They presented large numbers that read well on paper and leave investors feeling well while revealing nothing too detailed… LOL This is nothing new in the financial world.

 

Based on past games, it really is too early to predict this game’s future viability. It “looks” promising in my personal magic 8 ball but I want to see how they are really doing in May and June of this year. However, I feel safe in saying that it is the best MMORPG launch in gaming history from purchases to handling of issues.

 

I completely agree with everything your saying except the handling of issues , by far they have the worst in game custoer service i have ever seen. But i am not gonna drink to the EA cool aid about sub numbers.This game has sold more copies of a launch MMO then any other and they had a excellent launch . As far as retention numbers companies do 1 of 2 things Lie by ommision of certain facts. or do not disclose anything but monetary profits. We wont know for a fact until the next qrtr's call. but we will see some leaked sub numbers that are speculation by analysts over the coming weeks. To rtain substantial numbers BW is going to have to enrich and add to the end game activites , squash bugs, and silence the high res texture pac fiasco by optimizing them and putting them in game full time. that is a tall Order for any MMO team.

[Drewser]

http://www.mmo-junkies.net/backend/applications_addon/other/statistics/db/population/overall-yearly-big.png

 

 

What facts would they be then?

 

Not any other than those reported by EA - who have a very strong vested interest in keeping their shareholders quiet.

 

Still - you know best.

 

I'll be back when it's F2P....in about 12 months.

 

Scritty

 

Another goal post mover.

[ptwonline]

Simply because a company is legally prohibited from directly lying in financial statements does not prevent them from presenting their numbers in such a way as to spin appearances falsely. They presented large numbers that read well on paper and leave investors feeling well while revealing nothing too detailed… LOL This is nothing new in the financial world.

 

The problem with that line of reasoning is this: eventually--and likely not far off--spinning numbers will catch up to you. The financial statements will not match the other info you give, and then management/investors will come back and ask what's up and may even perform an audit. At that point you're in for some serious professional trouble--that's the kind of thing that lose people their jobs over.

 

And when those corrections are made, it can make a not-so-bad situation look much worse than it is simply because the bad news is being compounded.

 

Companies DO sometimes lie or spin their numbers, but usually only out of need/greed. For example, moving expenses to another year and realizing revenues early in order to hit performance bonuses. The time that misrepresentation is most likely is when you're looking for additional funding and need to sell the idea. That isn't what is happening here. The investment has been made, and will be continued to be made for some time. I don't see what they have to gain by fudging the subs numbers at this point.