jarjarloves Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 For great posterity! http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ea-beats-targets-on-sales-gain-forecast-off-2012-02-01?link=MW_story_featstor Emboldened for emphasis. yeah it's not all because people bought the game after dec 31st. http://www.vgchartz.com/game/31584/star-wars-the-old-republic/USA/ notice they didn't sell all 2 million copys right away. But they did sell the vast majority of them in the first few weeks so it is safe to say the 1.7 million more then probably 75% of them have payed their first month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KarmaInferno Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Yes, we know. Its the first month, then its the 2 month cards, then its the 3 month... etc. Do you ever learn? The exact timeframe is subjective. My point is that plenty of MMOs and other similar games have great launch numbers because people are interested in the subject. Especially licensed products that have a built-in fanbase. So many, however, fail to keep those numbers in the long term. It is true that the biggest drop comes roughly a month after launch, when people's free play time runs out and some folks decide not to renew. However, i'm not just talking about that. I am NOT saying SWTOR will succeed or fail. Time will tell. All I'm saying is that launch numbers are not the whole picture in determining success or failure. -k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghaiana Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The true test will be if SWTOR can HOLD the active subscriptions. Plenty of MMOs had good launch numbers but three to six months later were struggling. -k Real failing MMO's (AoC and Warhammer for example) had retention rates below 50% after the first month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quip Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Real failing MMO's (AoC and Warhammer for example) had retention rates below 50% after the first month. As low as 20% in the case of one particular launch that I will not name here as the fans of that game are... vocal. And angry. So very angry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dezzi Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 (edited) I think you should read the report and you... well i dont think there is anything in the world that will make you see it. The game is a sucess, deal with it. No ammount of "i dont know how to interpret results so hows this" is gonna save you. FACTS, from official sources presented to investors where you can't lie. There really is no room for the interpretation you're trying to make. Deal with it. Its a sucess. Will it be more of a sucess in the future? that we dont know yet, but right now there is NO denying that it is a sucess. Just a bunch of haters trying to hate, as they always did, based on nothing but their biased opinions and lack of understanding. This discussion was more interesting when sensible people were a part of it--on both sides of the argument. I see it's only brought out the doomsayers and the white knights. You are clearly the latter. The game is neither a success or failure. The numbers simply aren't there. It will take months to determine if this game has staying power (which is the real measure of an MMO's success). Deal with it. Edited February 2, 2012 by Dezzi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nemmar Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I don't think anyone is disputing what they said... What people want to know... is what % of the 1.7 million are still in the 30 day free period. EA would only say that more than half are beyond their free trial. For whatever reason, EA didn't want to elaborate on that point. In the other thread is linked the sales values of the game during the first 5 weeks. Here take a look http://www.vgchartz.com/game/31584/star-wars-the-old-republic/Global/ 1,8 millions on the first 2 weeks already hit the payment (unless they didnt activate their copy for some reason), after that the game sold an additional 250k. What exactly is there to question here? Lack of interpretation and lack of investigative skills? Most players are paying subs already. The remaining 250k are still on their free month. Straws... you're holding to them. There is no questioning the legitimacy and validity of these numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jarjarloves Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I don't think anyone is disputing what they said... What people want to know... is what % of the 1.7 million are still in the 30 day free period. EA would only say that more than half are beyond their free trial. For whatever reason, EA didn't want to elaborate on that point. it's easy to figure out just look at the sales figures and figure out how many copies where sold AFTER December 31st http://www.vgchartz.com/game/31584/star-wars-the-old-republic/USA/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boobaffet Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 It isn't after the first month is up. Some % of those 1.7 million are the people that purchased the game AFTER January 1st. It's kind of a big topic of discussion! Of course some people are still in their free month ( like dezzi like to point out every hour or so ). But there will ALWAYS be people in their free month. Most of those player got the game before january 1 therefore are paying costumer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dezzi Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 (edited) Of course some people are still in their free month ( like dezzi like to point out every hour or so ). But there will ALWAYS be people in their free month. Most of those player got the game before january 1 therefore are paying costumer I only point it out because people seem to forget it. I'm all for celebrating success, but I just think it's too early to pop the champagne on this one. Edited February 2, 2012 by Dezzi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daemian Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The game is neither a success or failure. The numbers simply aren't there. It will take months to determine if this game has staying power (which is the real measure of an MMO's success). Deal with it. To be accurate, the game is, currently, a success. Will it continue to be successful? That is the real question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boobaffet Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 It was never "explicitly" stated to be after launch. You just assumed that. Where does it say after launch? You forgetting that the game was on sale before the official release date which allowed people to update their subscription. Unless otherwise stated within the report, you have to use the 31 Dec 2011. They stated '' A little over on month after release''. A lot of people told you, and you choose not to respond to them/ignore them. Therefore i came to the logical conclusion that you are a troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saseav Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 As low as 20% in the case of one particular launch that I will not name here as the fans of that game are... vocal. And angry. So very angry. is itt SWG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhazeFadis Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Yes, we know. Its the first month, then its the 2 month cards, then its the 3 month... etc. Do you ever learn? Yes. That's the way these things work. The industry is littered with big-ish budget games (though not as big as TOR) that have appeared to be doing well after 1 month... then taken pretty steep dives off the cliff. If TOR breaks the trend and is gaining subscirbers after 3... 6 months... we'll all know. It will be obvious. Until then, we can just say the facts. * Game has sold 2 million copies * Game has 1.7 million active subscribers * Some unknown % of the active subscribers are still in their free 30 day period. * We know the % is less than 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
da_krall Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Since the press release is dated 31st of december 2011 - wouldnt everyone be in their free period at that point? given that this relase only covers 11days after release? so number of boxes sold = number of subs (minus those that didnt even bother to install) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChicksDigHarleys Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 (edited) Yes, we know. Its the first month, then its the 2 month cards, then its the 3 month... etc. Do you ever learn? It's a fair question. Just because they kept 85% after 1 month doesn't mean they will in 6. I'm not bored yet, but I'm an altoholic and don't have any 50s yet...IIRC BW has said a vast majority of the players don't. I suspect most people will stick it out long enough to get *one* character to 50 unless they hate the game for whatever reason, but what about after that? Real failing MMO's (AoC and Warhammer for example) had retention rates below 50% after the first month. Yep...AoC went from 800k units sold in May/June 2008 to 415k subs in July 2008. Edited February 2, 2012 by ChicksDigHarleys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miliways Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 People are funny. Tons of QQing on the forums. Wow has ____, why don't we have ____? This game sucks. I'm quitting. I'm unsubbing. Well, GOOD. If you don't like it, don't play. If you like wow better, play wow. Is that really so hard? Not EVERY game appeals to EVERY person. Have you heard of demographics? Barbie's horse adventure doesn't appeal to me at all, but that doesn't make me email the developers and tell them they suck at life and they made a bad game. There are plenty of people who like that game. Everybody said TOR would never make 1 million subs, would drop to half that in the first month. Ends up TOR has 1.7 million subs. LOLOL Enough, people, enough. If you don't like it, go away. Lots of us clearly do. (This isn't to say we shouldn't talk about improvements, just all the constant negativity is just noise.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drewser Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Are you saying that EA is including information from Jan 2012 in their 4th qtr 2011 financial report, which is their fiscal 3rd qtr 2012 report. Yes, they talked about current and future information in their call like every company does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GamewizX Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I only point it out because people seem to forget it. I'm all for celebrating success, but I just think it's too early to pop the champagne on this one. Numbers are looking good, and yes they could change. I think this game can truly be called a success if the numbers remain above the 1mil active subscriber mark after the first quarter of the game's existence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhazeFadis Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 In the other thread is linked the sales values of the game during the first 5 weeks. Here take a look http://www.vgchartz.com/game/31584/star-wars-the-old-republic/Global/ 1,8 millions on the first 2 weeks already hit the payment (unless they didnt activate their copy for some reason), after that the game sold an additional 250k. What exactly is there to question here? Lack of interpretation and lack of investigative skills? Most players are paying subs already. The remaining 250k are still on their free month. Straws... you're holding to them. There is no questioning the legitimacy and validity of these numbers. This isn't about straws. Don't take it personally. If you go with THOSE numbers... then the situation we have is this: 1.45 million of the 1.7 million active subscribers are paying for an astounding 85% 1 month "launch" retention rate.... On the other hand... additional interest in the game is very low... and prospects would appear very bleak if the 2-mo and 3-mo retention rates start to drop (and we just don't know what those will be yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drewser Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Right. I'm not a doomsayer, but you have to realize that the 1.7 million figure is not a measure of the game's success. In fact, it's neither a sign of success or failure at all. It simply shows that the game has followers. We'll know better in a few months. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ea-beats-targets-on-sales-gain-forecast-off-2012-02-01?link=MW_story_featstor Emboldened for emphasis. Of the 1.7 million, "most" of them are paying. What does that mean? Wait, what? Having the fastest growing subscription rate in MMO history is not a success? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vlacke Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 People are funny. Tons of QQing on the forums. Wow has ____, why don't we have ____? This game sucks. I'm quitting. I'm unsubbing. Well, GOOD. If you don't like it, don't play. If you like wow better, play wow. Is that really so hard? Not EVERY game appeals to EVERY person. Have you heard of demographics? Barbie's horse adventure doesn't appeal to me at all, but that doesn't make me email the developers and tell them they suck at life and they made a bad game. There are plenty of people who like that game. Everybody said TOR would never make 1 million subs, would drop to half that in the first month. Ends up TOR has 1.7 million subs. LOLOL Enough, people, enough. If you don't like it, go away. Lots of us clearly do. (This isn't to say we shouldn't talk about improvements, just all the constant negativity is just noise.) This. Spoiled WoW Trolls are by far the worst kind in any new game community. I am pleased that this game is doing well, it's a great game in my opinion (that opinion is obviously shared by a vast majority of people who play) with unbelievable potential regarding future content and expansions. All in all, keep up the good work Bioware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heschen Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Numbers are looking good, and yes they could change. I think this game can truly be called a success if the numbers remain above the 1mil active subscriber mark after the first quarter of the game's existence. Are you talking about a success sub/money vise for Bioware/EA or a success for the game quality?? Because if it's money/sub, then yes it has very much success, but if we are talking about the quelity of the game for us users, then i beg to differ and say it has very poorly success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboudreaux Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I don't think anyone is disputing what they said... What people want to know... is what % of the 1.7 million are still in the 30 day free period. EA would only say that more than half are beyond their free trial. For whatever reason, EA didn't want to elaborate on that point. that's easy... if you are in the free 30 days.. you don't yet have an active subscription your "active subscription" does not start till you are finished your free 30 days and are billed for a subscription .. then and only then, will you have an "Active Subscription" stop trying to twist it around and making it more complicated than it really is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dezzi Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Wait, what? Having the fastest growing subscription rate in MMO history is not a success? It's neither success or failure. Like I said. It's simply the fastest-growing active subscriber rate of any game to date. What will impress me, and get me to pop that champagne cork will be when that 1.7 million is 2 million in March. Or 3 million in July. Good-sounding numbers just a month out of launch is no measure of anything for an MMO other than a resounding short-term hooray! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KarmaInferno Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 (edited) Got to thinking... 2 million box purchases equates to about, what, 100 million dollars in gross profit? Call it 50 million after retailers take their cut. Bump that up to 60 million perhaps to reflect the collector editions and such. SWTOR reportedly cost roughly 200 million to develop, according to independent industry analysis. So, to be a financial success, SWTOR will have to maintain subscriber numbers above 1.5 million for 5-6 months. That's just to start showing profits. I'm not even including the cost of maintenance, further development, etc. I am really hoping it does well. As I said, though, time will tell. -k Edited February 2, 2012 by KarmaInferno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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