Hardmode Flashpoints; No loot variance for premade groups

[PhoenixMatrix]

this post is so full of trolls its not even funny. Ive been running the same group for heroics 90% of the time. sometimes we get loot no one wants. we have also each gotten columi pieces. It is just random loot. keep at the ones you need for those last pieces of columi and good luck.

 

Getting 11 of the same item is crazy and annoying but this has been seen in countless boss fights in wow and in other games.

 

Id say its 100% random as thats what we've seen. The thing that happens generally is people only remember the times when loot drop that no one needed. They forget about when there buddy got his gloves that gave him his for piece or that off hand they got last week. remember you dont DESERVE loot just for running an instance or an opps. **** happens get over it.

 

Yeah, im sure us being able to tell exactly which piece of energized, which schematic, and which columi will drop countless times in a row is luck. Man, im going to the casino (and keep in mind I -HAVE- everything I can get from those flashpoints, so its not like i'm a sore loser. I just feel for the rest of my team).

[DaveMcG]

this post is so full of trolls its not even funny. Ive been running the same group for heroics 90% of the time. sometimes we get loot no one wants. we have also each gotten columi pieces. It is just random loot. keep at the ones you need for those last pieces of columi and good luck.

 

Getting 11 of the same item is crazy and annoying but this has been seen in countless boss fights in wow and in other games.

 

Id say its 100% random as thats what we've seen. The thing that happens generally is people only remember the times when loot drop that no one needed. They forget about when there buddy got his gloves that gave him his for piece or that off hand they got last week. remember you dont DESERVE loot just for running an instance or an opps. **** happens get over it.

 

Please reread this post. There is no way that 10+ premade groups seeing EXACTLY THE SAME LOOT this many times is coincidence. That's only counting the groups that have posted.

 

 

Let's say I gave you a function. I claim it randomly returns the values {1, 2, 3, 4} each with equal probabilities. I implement this function to always return 2, but you don't know that.

 

How many draws do you need to suspect this function isn't behaving as advertised? How many do you need to prove it is mathematically impossible for the function to behave as advertised?

 

If you're going for a 95% confidence, you only requires 5 draws. A 99% confidence only requires 7. To prove it's mathematically impossible you need infinitely many -- something that's not physically possible.

 

Are you going to conclude it must be implemented correctly, because a never ending sequence of 2's is mathematically possible based on how I described a function? No -- that's silly, but it's exactly what you're doing here.

 

Here's a thread where I posted our experiences and associated probabilities from a few days ago :

http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?p=2001546#post2001546

 

Since then we re-ran False Emp and got another smuggler jacket (which is what prompted Dave's post), and Battle for Ilum (with a slightly different group) and got the Sage off-hand.

 

Claiming this is "not probable" undermines just how unlikely this is, given actual randomness. Seeing this much consistency in drops across multiple flashpoints is less than a 1 in 2.5 million shot. Another way of putting it is, if every single person who purchased the game ran exactly this sequence of hardmode flashpoints, the expected number of times you'd see a sequence this probable (or worse) is less than 0.02.

 

In other words, you have about a 1 in 50 shot of seeing one individual encounter a sequence like this if all 2 million people who purchased SWTOR ran the same number of hm flashpoints as we have. It's also worth noting this estimate is going to be fairly high, since the game hasn't seen 2 million sales yet, and every single person most certainly isn't running hm fp's as frequently as we are.

 

The purpose of this thread is just raising the question -- are other people seeing the same behavior we are? Seems like some are, and some aren't. The fact that others seem to be is an indicator that something might be off with the loot system's function, given how unlikely it is to even see it once.

 

As was mentioned earlier in this thread -- outside of one specific device, there's no true "random" on computers. Pseudo-random number generators are simply recurrence relations that share a set of specific properties with truly random streams. This makes them incredibly difficult to test, and very error prone implementations if you're not extremely careful.

 

Something as simple as seeding the rng with a value that's static relative to the group would give it good behavior relative to the most commonly investigated tests (specifically, repeatedly querying a loot table to verify drops and looking at drop rates across the entire population), but cause exactly this sort of non-random behavior when faced with a static group who runs a few hm's at the same time every night. Using a rng that has poor uniformity at the bit-level can also cause significant swings in the probability of even & odd numbers occurring when used with standard binary encoding that could cause problems depending on if a (0,1) normalization or a modulus is used to bound the results.

 

What I'm getting at is, just because you're told it's random doesn't mean you should blindly believe it just because a sequence is possible. If it's claimed to be random and then behaves significantly differently from the supposed distributions & probabilities, then something else might be up.

 

Now, just to be clear -- we've tried the basic things. We've varied the time we enter the instance (but not much the time we assemble the group), who assembles the group, who loots the container, and who is the "owner"/"leader" of the story-mode. The token drops didn't seem to change. Also, while we haven't sufficiently documented the purple drops leading up to the token, we do notice they tend to be the same 1-3 drops from every boss, and (I believe) we do see completely new stuff when running with very different groups.

[Mavery]

Dave keeps giving me more work.

 

 

 

Let's say I gave you a function. I claim it randomly returns the values {1, 2, 3, 4} each with equal probabilities. I implement this function to always return 2, but you don't know that.

 

How many draws do you need to suspect this function isn't behaving as advertised? How many do you need to prove it is mathematically impossible for the function to behave as advertised?

 

If you're going for a 95% confidence, you only requires 5 draws. A 99% confidence only requires 7. To prove it's mathematically impossible you need infinitely many -- something that's not physically possible.

 

Bolded has proven my point completely.

 

You cannot prove it is NOT random but want to suggest that it clearly isn't. Hmmm, that's not how you argue very effectively. As I said earlier, you have a case when you prove it's not random. The burden of proof is on you, and by your words, you cannot do this.

 

Now because this thread favours anecdotal evidence, I will as well: my static groups do not see repetition in drops. It's fairly random. JC/Smugg is on the high end, but not to the point where it dwarfs Trooper/Smugg.

 

You guys got hit with bad luck. That's all it is. RNG is RNG.

Edited January 25, 2012 by Mavery

[Soluss]

Ive run it everyday for the last 2 weeks. Almost all inquis chests with 1 BH chest and 2 IA chest. Only reason we been running it is to get my jugg chest. In fact we have been running 2 to 3 HMs a day for 3 weeks now and the only columni I have gotten is the bracer in BT. Odly I have gotten that bracer 4 times now. Its getting lame. Our companions have better gear then I do. Edited January 25, 2012 by Soluss

[darkonnis]

We usually run:

Juggernaut, Marauder

Sorcerer x2

We have had a similar experience, D7 drops nothing but Operative legs, and BH everything else. For the first time in a week we got 1 warrior leg piece. Black talon, operative gear or merc gear, NEVER anything else, been 50 on my marauder for 3 weeks and run it every day, never got the bracers drop. not once.

People can spam RNG all they want but at the moment i just cant believe it. There is something affecting it and if there isnt, then its the worst "random" system i have ever seen.

[DaveMcG]

Bolded has proven my point completely.

 

You cannot prove it is NOT random but want to suggest that it clearly isn't. Hmmm, that's not how you argue very effectively. As I said earlier, you have a case when you prove it's not random. The burden of proof is on you, and by your words, you cannot do this.

 

Now because this thread favours anecdotal evidence, I will as well: my static groups do not see repetition in drops. It's fairly random. JC/Smugg is on the high end, but not to the point where it dwarfs Trooper/Smugg.

 

You guys got hit with bad luck. That's all it is. RNG is RNG.

 

Thanks for your input. I guess we are just seeing the most incredibly unlikely string of events along with 10-20 other groups and you are the only one who is not. Clearly there can't be anything skewing our drops because you know exactly what is seeding the random.

 

Oh wait, you have no idea either??

 

Did you not read his post? ONE IN 2.5 MILLION CHANCE, and it's happening to multiple groups. Get a clue, something is whacky.

 

edit: I have no doubt that there are times when it works properly and gives a "random" drop. That is why we have seen a couple odd drops. But we are doing something inadvertently that is affecting the seed 90% of the time.

Edited January 25, 2012 by DaveMcG

[Mavery]

Thanks for your input. I guess we are just seeing the most incredibly unlikely string of events along with 10-20 other groups and you are the only one who is not. Clearly there can't be anything skewing our drops because you know exactly what is seeding the random.

 

Oh wait, you have no idea either??

 

Did you not read his post? ONE IN 2.5 MILLION CHANCE, and it's happening to multiple groups. Get a clue, something is whacky.

 

edit: I have no doubt that there are times when it works properly and gives a "random" drop. That is why we have seen a couple odd drops. But we are doing something inadvertently that is affecting the seed 90% of the time.

 

When you are arguing that the system is NOT RNG, the burden of proof is on you to demonstrate otherwise. In your position's admission you hold that the situation you describe is possible, albeit unlikely in the context of a random generator.

 

You are shooting yourself in the foot with this argument.

 

You made my argument for me. You did not disprove it is RNG. Until you do that, you have no case. Even if it is a small, slim chance, the fact that it still holds to RNG principles, maintains the systems integrity.

[DaveMcG]

When you are arguing that the system is NOT RNG, the burden of proof is on you to demonstrate otherwise. In your position's admission you hold that the situation you describe is possible, albeit unlikely in the context of a random generator.

 

You are shooting yourself in the foot with this argument.

 

You made my argument for me. You did not disprove it is RNG. Until you do that, you have no case. Even if it is a small, slim chance, the fact that it still holds to RNG principles, maintains the systems integrity.

 

LOL.. let's put it into perspective. Go start flipping a coin. Come on back when you get 21 heads in a row.

 

In any case, you continue to believe what you'd like. There is no way to prove whether the system is working as intended without knowing how they seed it.

 

This thread is simply to gauge if other groups are seeing what we are and the overwhelming majority (all save you and one other) are seeing it. Go troll elsewhere.

Edited January 25, 2012 by DaveMcG

[Mavery]

LOL.. let's put it into perspective. Go start flipping a coin. Come on back when you get 21 heads in a row.

 

In any case, you continue to believe what you'd like. There is no way to prove whether the system is working as intended without knowing how they seed it.

 

This thread is simply to gauge if other groups are seeing what we are and the overwhelming majority (all save you and one other) are seeing it. Go troll elsewhere.

 

So instead of arguing you resort to fallacious statements like "go troll."

 

LOL

 

edit: It's within the realm of possibility to get 21 heads in a row. Not sure why you choose to keep proving my argument.

Edited January 25, 2012 by Mavery

[DaveMcG]

So instead of arguing you resort to fallacious statements like "go troll."

 

 

You are ignoring our point; therefore, you are trolling.

 

The point is not if this is possible. Yes, it is possible.

 

The point is that it is extremely unlikely for one group to see this, let alone ~15. I am trying to bring this to the dev's attention so they can see if there is *GASP* a bug that is causing premade groups to see less than random results due to the seed being affected somehow.

 

Is that clear?

[Mavery]

You are ignoring our point; therefore, you are trolling.

 

The point is not if this is possible. Yes, it is possible.

 

The point is that it is extremely unlikely for one group to see this, let alone ~15. I am trying to bring this to the dev's attention so they can see if there is *GASP* a bug that is causing premade groups to see less than random results due to the seed being affected somehow.

 

Is that clear?

 

I'm not ignoring your point.

 

If you can prove (which you cannot) that RNG isn't RNG then it's a bug.

 

As it is, it's WAI.

 

So, no, I'm not trolling.

[DaveMcG]

Back on planet earth....

 

Are there any other groups that always use the same members and have run 2-3 flashpoints a day for the last two weeks that have NOT seen this behaviour?

 

Thanks for providing any data points!

[DaveMcG]

So we ran 4 tonight, with 3 of our standard 4 and another trooper instead of the usual sentinel.

 

This did produce the expected minor variations, but I kid you not, at least 75% of the loot was smuggler/agent.

 

Our Knights Doc is better geared than our standard Trooper.

 

Any updates from anyone's runs tonight with their standard groups?

[Aanweas]

Ran Heroics the last 3 days, at least 2 a day. Guardian, Sage, Commando, Scoundrel and gotten the same exact drops every day in every dungeon except for 2 bosses that dropped something different.

 

Let's just say our Commando is extremely happy.

Edited January 25, 2012 by Aanweas

[Ramuk]

Loot drops wouldn't be a big issue if they increased the commendation rewards so HMs would feel more rewarding even if your token/gear didn't drop.

[knightnvy]

∂^2

µ

 

 

/thread

[Gaun]

Its random, ive seen all manner of different class drops. I got my guardian chest piece on some of the 8 runs I did of emperor..

[knightnvy]

random isnt good, you have to cancel the variances. Normalized random is what should be in an MMO

[Soluss]

Well, I think their loot system sucks. I must be the most unluckiest guy in MMOs if its truely just RNG. I will give you my bad "RNG experience" Roughly 45 HM dungeons. 2 pieces for my class dropped period. Not dropped and lost rolls simply 2 pieces dropped. 1 columni bracer from BT on my first day of HMs. 1 lightsabre off HK in false Emp... which isnt even columni.

 

2 to 3 instances a day for 3 weeks. 45 instances is the rough estimate. RNG needs to go and smartloot implemented. At the very least the com drops need upped or the com prices need dropped.

Edited January 25, 2012 by Soluss

[Luculus]

I thought this would probably be a good thread to post in...

 

Our guild has several groups running Hard Modes every night. The rate of BH drops is about 70%+ for ALL groups.

 

Our Merc DPS was fully equipped in one evening...one. Everyone else is scrabbling around for any kind of drop.

 

The RNG must be borked in some way as it seems to pick one class, and usually a class that isn't present in the group, and drop almost exclusively for that class for the whole FP.

 

I understand that Devs use a RNG as a bottleneck for gearing up to stop people not needing content within a few days/weeks. But this is just plain frustrating.

 

Could the Devs please introduce some kind of sanity check ? e.g. if last drop = BH armour then BH armour = RNG-20% or something similar.

 

Our operatives have BH companions in nearly full sets of purple gear whilst everyone's main is still searching.

Edited January 25, 2012 by Luculus
speeling :P

[DaveMcG]

Its random, ive seen all manner of different class drops. I got my guardian chest piece on some of the 8 runs I did of emperor..

 

Thanks for the feedback!

 

What you don't specify however is if all 8 of those runs were with the EXACT same group members. That is the whole point of this thread.

 

When running with the same 3 friends, it seems the overwhelming majority of groups are starting to see very little loot variance.

 

Please let us know.

 

Cheers!

[Duymon]

I've run enough hard-modes to buy the full tionese suit. I didn't have a single piece of columi armor until...... yesterday when I ran 1 EV, got 3 pieces, then ran Mael and Kaon H M to get my last two...

 

the RNG is Sweet to you 1% of the time and Evil the other 99% (sounds like my ex) Don't even start talking to me about my champion bag luck :eek::eek:

Edited January 25, 2012 by Duymon

[EhLiar]

We've been running with a Gunslinger/Sage/Shadow/Guardian and we've pretty much been getting trooper armor en masse.

 

That being said, we've gotten a goodish amount of non trooper stuff(...for me! suck it other guys!) so maybe it's just the things that stick out in memory.

 

Oh, and our Shadow is like, half tank half dps, so I'm doing the majority of the damage I think. Not sure if that matters to you guys, but you know.

 

We're not tooooo good at this.

[DaveMcG]

I've run enough hard-modes to buy the full tionese suit. I didn't have a single piece of columi armor until...... yesterday when I ran 1 EV, got 3 pieces, then ran Mael and Kaon H M to get my last two...

 

the RNG is Sweet to you 1% of the time and Evil the other 99% (sounds like my ex) Don't even start talking to me about my champion bag luck :eek::eek:

 

Yes, random can be random indeed.

 

My point is to gauge only groups that are running with the EXACT SAME members. That is where we are seeing very predictable loot.

 

In all 8 pages, there has been only ONE reply from someone who uses a static group that isn't seeing this pattern.

[Duymon]

Yes, random can be random indeed.

 

My point is to gauge only groups that are running with the EXACT SAME members. That is where we are seeing very predictable loot.

 

In all 8 pages, there has been only ONE reply from someone who uses a static group that isn't seeing this pattern.

 

Oh well if that's the case, we always run:

 

me (Vanguard)

DPS (Shadow)

DPS (Sage)

heals (Scoundrel)

 

What drops 99% of the time? Jedi Knight loot....... Which isn't too horrible if it's the gloves or helm. I just buy the tank version and grab the lvl 56 mod

Edited January 25, 2012 by Duymon