Is TOR done growing?

[Angusart]

Its still $60. I think there is a large nuimber of people waiting for the price to drop to little or nothing for the game box to subscribe.

 

That was my plan before I got roped in by the beta and didnt want to wait for the game to get cheaper.

 

When the sub rate drops low enough they will of course drop the price, eventually to a free trial and then a sub to get started, not having to pay the $60 pricetag for entry.

[silkforcalde]

I don't think this game is done growing at all, I think that's honestly an absurd thing to even speculate on.

[gurugeorge]

I was saying that I didn't think there were many gamers out there left for TOR to snag, and I thought the game's subs would decline from here on out. Someone remarked that WoW grew over many years, and I made the point that the market was just different then - younger and less saturated.

 

The pattern you're talking about only pertains to some of the recent, hugely hyped MMOs. Actually it's not uncommon for MMOs to grow over several years, as you will see here.

 

Notably the two early biggies, UO and EQ didi this. As did WoW. As did AC. As did Lineage. As did DAOC. As did LOTRO. As did many other less "glamorous" MMOs like Runescape and Dofus. Most notably, EVE Online has been slowly climing for years and has only recently started plateauing. (Incidentally, people talk about Aion as a failure, but although it had a dip, it's still going strong at around 3 million odd.)

 

Far from being the exception, a rise in subs over time, and then a slow decline with a bump is rather the norm. It's the recent "big dippers" that are the exception, such as WAR, AoC, TR, DCUO, Rift.

 

But actually I think the idea of SWTOR "snagging" players from other games is the mistake people are making in their analysis. I think SWTOR is more likely to make new converts to the MMO genre rather than rely totally on dipping into the pool of old MMO lags.

 

From my experience, players of single player games who avoid MMOs do so because the hamster-wheel is usually so poorly disguised. In SWTOR it's very well disguised by immersive voiced storylines with great digital puppetry.

 

Killing 10 (womp)rats has never felt so meaningful.

 

And I think that's what will attract new players.

 

TBH, I haven't felt this much love for a game in-game since City of Heroes. There are very, very few unhappy players voicing their concerns in General on my server anyway. (Lord Calypho, EU RP-PVP.)

 

Most of the people trolling the forums are probably people who have had it in for the game for years anyway. There has been a strong ant- campaign on all the forums (e.g. MMORPG.com) since the game was announced. Now all those trolls have had a chance to vent.

 

But I don't think they're at all representative (which I judge not least by the fact that fans have constantly rallied on the forums to defend the game, that's not something I've seen on the forums of "fail" games like AoC in their first few months, usually the percentage is the other way round, with the trolls outnumbering).

 

I think the game will dip, obviously, but I doubt it will be big enough to trouble EA. I also think the game will continue to increase subs as time goes on, by introducing new players, and by attracting back people who have left for genuine reasons (e.g. ability delay, presuming that's fixed in the next couple of months).

 

It all hangs on whether BioWare have the capability to be a content monster. If they aren't going to be able to pump out the content and gradually fix all the niggles, then it's game over indeed; but if they do, there's no reason why this game can't go from strength to strength and end up the second biggest "proper" Western MMO out there.

[silkforcalde]

lol true. They take like 3 years to put out expansions. Yeah that's how you lose people to boredom.

 

Errrr no they don't. What are you talking about? Any subs WoW lost will be regained when MoP comes out.

[BobTheTeepo]

I doubt EA agrees with that. With the money they spent on developing this game 2 million subscribers certainly isn't their target. Losing 50% of that and I'd bet heads start rolling.

 

It's important to note that EA says the game will be "substantially profitable" with "500k" subscribers. Which means that, if TOR, can maintain less than 1/4th of the people that buy it (which I would say 1/4 of everyone that buys it is hardcore Star Wars and will likely stay with the game JUST because of that) for a decent period of time, then it will be okay, and I'd say we're in much better shape than less than 1/4th of people staying.

 

http://www.gamespot.com/news/star-wars-the-old-republic-needs-only-500k-subscribers-ea-6297338

 

We'd have to see what the numbers are after maybe 6 months. I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see it go F2P by the end of the first year.

 

It took a game that was far less successful, had a lot less appeal to casual audience, and had more reason to go F2P (because it had seen success going F2P in another MMO) over 2 years to go F2P (talking about STO). It's safe to say that this game will -- likely -- not go F2P for quite a while, if ever.

Edited January 17, 2012 by BobTheTeepo

[Jett-Rinn]

Another day another Astrotrufer post.

 

But at least they stopped trying to perpetuate SWTOR is dying now it's just has SWTOR stopped growing.

 

it is to laugh.

[Ortof]

Errrr no they don't. What are you talking about? Any subs WoW lost will be regained when MoP comes out.

 

That's incorrect as well. You personally have no idea on who stays and who goes. I lost interest near the end of WoTLK. Guess what, Cataclysm didn't make me go back either. Nor will MoP. "To me" the game is old, worn out and plagued. No expansion will fix that.

 

So, again, you have no idea on what subs will or will not come back for MoP.

[Forsbacka]

It's important to note that EA says the game will be "substantially profitable" with "500k" subscribers. Which means that, if TOR, can maintain less than 1/4th of the people that buy it (which I would say 1/4 of everyone that buys it is hardcore Star Wars and will likely stay with the game JUST because of that) for a decent period of time, then it will be okay, and I'd say we're in much better shape that less than 1/4th of people staying.

 

http://www.gamespot.com/news/star-wars-the-old-republic-needs-only-500k-subscribers-ea-6297338

 

 

 

It took a game that was far less successful, had a lot less appeal to casual audience, and had more reason to go F2P (because it had seen success going F2P in another MMO) over 2 years to go F2P (talking about STO). It's safe to say that this game will -- likely -- not go F2P for quite a while, if ever.

 

 

 

500k subs for 2 years maybe. Box sales aint even close to cover the costs so far. Big companies like EA that owns Bioware are worried mainly on stockvalue and they really cant say the real picture so they just toss vague 500k subs without saying for how long. Making the game cost 100-300 depending of source and only hard boxes, shipping em and game shop procentage costed over 20 million alone on top of that. Doesnt really take much thinking to see that 500k subs aint their aim or enough and they wont be satisfied for those numbers.

[jarjarloves]

You may be nwe to MMO gaming but there are entire segments of the MLG that play online MMO's competatively that don't look at SWTOR as a viable game. Same for the Hardcore and Casual Raiding Guilds as well as the Hardcore and Casual PvP Guilds. We aren't talking about small portions of the player base that have the same compaints we are talking about people that stream, get company endorsements and are paid to play video games and MMO's.

 

And they all say the game doesn't look like it will survive. There is a community of gamers that exist outside of these forums.

 

 

A lot of people like the game and want to love it. But they are experienced or at least knowledgeable about MMO design and game design and look at the flaws and issues in SWTOR and laugh at how they could exist past Beta. Core fundamental mechanics and systems are broken or have severe issues.

 

 

 

 

 

Yes it does. It hinges on being able to maintain a player base or cor player base. AoC, Aion, Star Trek all failed to maintain those. Casual rotating player bases don't keep MMO's alive.

 

 

 

Your first point is valid. Only people who are looking for something to complain over will do that. Your second point is roughly the equivalent to peeing on a carpet as any MMO forum that doesn't require an active account to post on it's forum is automatically a fail MMO.

 

Just to be clear though when this game is still thriving a year from now you will come back admit you were wrong and apologize right?

[BobTheTeepo]

500k subs for 2 years maybe. Box sales aint even close to cover the costs so far. Big companies like EA that owns Bioware are worried mainly on stockvalue and they really cant say the real picture so they just toss vague 500k subs without saying for how long. Making the game cost 100-300 depending of source and only hard boxes, shipping em and game shop procentage costed over 20 million alone on top of that. Doesnt really take much thinking to see that 500k subs aint their aim or enough and they wont be satisfied for those numbers.

 

I'm going to have to disagree with this. Nobody knows exactly how much it costed to make the game, it's anywhere between 80m-200m. So let's say it's 140m.

 

Bioware has sold over 2 million copies. They've already almost completely broke even without taking into account collectors edition sales (which are each unit double the cost of the normal game). I don't claim to be an expert in this field, but if this very basic math adds up, SWTOR has already generated profit for Bioware, if not it will very soon.

[Forsbacka]

I'm going to have to disagree with this. Nobody knows exactly how much it costed to make the game, it's anywhere between 80m-200m. So let's say it's 140m.

 

Bioware has sold over 2 million copies. They've already almost completely broke even without taking into account collectors edition sales (which are each unit double the cost of the normal game). I don't claim to be an expert in this field, but if this very basic math adds up, SWTOR has already generated profit for Bioware, if not it will very soon.

 

 

Box sales aint covering it. They prolly get like 20 dollars per sold box minus taxes or less. They can make numbers how much this game costs very vague leaving many marketing costs outs of it and take only BW expenses into those numbers. You also have to consider that there is people working on next expansion, new patches, fixing old content, marketing going on whol games lifespan, server and mainteance costs etc. Its not like they get that 13 euros per player in their pocket, taxes, mainteance, lots of people working on new content etc. When you talk about Bioware, its owned totally by EA and they are in it for making lots of profit as any big company does.

Edited January 17, 2012 by Forsbacka

[CommieKras]

I'm going to have to disagree with this. Nobody knows exactly how much it costed to make the game, it's anywhere between 80m-200m. So let's say it's 140m.

 

Bioware has sold over 2 million copies. They've already almost completely broke even without taking into account collectors edition sales (which are each unit double the cost of the normal game). I don't claim to be an expert in this field, but if this very basic math adds up, SWTOR has already generated profit for Bioware, if not it will very soon.

 

BioWare doesn't get all of the money from the box sales. The dudes from the Hero Engine get like a 30% royalty on all sales, Lucas gets like a 20-30% royalty on all sales...not to take into account all of the money they have to pay as expenses: personnel, man hours, server upkeep, etc.

 

They'd have to sustain 500k subscribers for *years* to turn a profit.

[Fireside]

I am sorry to say but games that start to fall behind go free to play and that is where this one is going to be eventually.

 

I predict in 9-12 months if they don't get there **** straight you will see a very different number of subs. I cancelled and purchased that CoE. I am going to let the cash up front bite me for now, if it gets any better I may be back.

 

For anyone that thinks this game is going to have 10 million customers or even break 900k after 6 months needs to look at what it on the horizon coming out. SWToR has peaked now the back slide starts because they didn't have everything together at the begging.

 

And before you go and say WoW was terrible when it came out, I know I was there but there was different types of gamers than, now people are not so kind as to wait and let alone on an EA game considering their track record.

[Nubsors]

BioWare doesn't get all of the money from the box sales. The dudes from the Hero Engine get like a 30% royalty on all sales, Lucas gets like a 20-30% royalty on all sales...not to take into account all of the money they have to pay as expenses: personnel, man hours, server upkeep, etc.

 

They'd have to sustain 500k subscribers for *years* to turn a profit.

 

And you have sources for those figures right?

[TonyACT]

 

Ah, you know my post in the other thread touched on that, and I didn't write it out here.

 

TOR purchases have declined sharply after the first two weeks. I had a link to a site with numbers, but I can't find it right now... Essentially everyone bought the game Pre-order or within the first two weeks. Since then, there have hardly been any sales, comparatively.

 

Basically, as is predictable, everyone who was likely to play the game heard about it and made their decision one way or the other. There aren't many people left who are undecided.

 

 

The game has yet to release in Asian and Oceanic markets. Asia is the biggest WoW market out there. Still room for LOTS of growth.

[Forsbacka]

And you have sources for those figures right?

 

Propably not cause those aint public but dont have to be rocket scientist to figure out that none of the 3 partys involved aint doing anything free and not in any circumstances after cuts for game shops, manufacturing+shipping the boxes, cuts for lucas arts and hero royalties, EA can get even half of the retail price. Saying 30-40% isnt far fetched.

Edited January 17, 2012 by Forsbacka

[princey]

it also had seven years worth of development and like a $300 million dollar budget.

 

Already been pointed out numerous times that the $300 million is astronomically wrong, but also, the game was not in development for 7 years. It was announced in 2008, likely started a couple years before that with writers. 5 years, tops, not 7.

[Zencoil]

BW has to ways to go: Give players what the want (easy mode) or make it hard (nerf bat).

 

Easy Mode: means less fixes more ways to acquire gear easier for those that didn't get on the PvP bandwagon to begin with. (could get mixed reviews - some might leave and others might say because of it)

 

Nerf Bat: They rebalance the classes (global cool down on stuns, buff the warriors (melee), examine the AoE dmg of classes, etc.) They fix issues, bugs in the game, and focus more on current content fixes instead of releasing new content. (Draw back to this is - harder for players to acquire gear that others have already obtain, which means less fun for them until they can get it, by then completely behind power-curve when they do acquire gear).

 

The insane mode: They try and work on both of the above mention at the same time to please everyone, but pick and choose which ones are more important. (alienate the players no matter what they choose because they can't please everyone).

 

GOOD LUCK!!!! - see in 3 months if the player base is still new or is it the die hard fanboys and dedicated players that are just Hoping the next, next patch will fix the game.

[Dyraele]

Old to use of numbers?

 

Not sure what you mean. These were the numbers for those games at launch. They are very accurate if you round to 100k, which is all we need for this discussion.

 

WAR and Conan had 800k and 700k in the first month. TOR has 2mil. They are not the same, but they are in the same ballpark.

 

And besides, the only reason for the comparison is to show how MMOs are front end loaded, and how a poor release will crush any pre-game momentum it may have had. There were many people exicted for Conan and WAR.

 

PS - this does not mean TOR will fail. Just painting a picture that is similar to what is going on here.

 

I see, my mistake. For some reason my brain was thinking TOR comparison with current TOR numbers. Still, in the end it is just speculation. Hard to really compare what people like/want to other MMOs for subscription numbers, but I see your point. Anything is possible.

[Trolltar]

Box sales aint covering it. They prolly get like 20 dollars per sold box minus taxes or less. T

 

Its been a while, but I used to run an Electronics Boutique store (that it was called electronics boutique and not gamestop give you some idea how long ago it was). But back in the day the margin the retailed saw was in the 10% range. The real margins were on selling preowned games. So for a $60 game its not unreasonable to think that EA is seeing $40 a game, probably more from the origins sales.

[djsmileey]

Actually, he's mostly right. WoW is a relatively rare case for a Western MMO. Most do peak early and start falling apart quickly.

 

WoW is an exception to this. Eve Online is an exception to this. LOTRO made a good comeback with F2P and is up about 100K from 2009... But I'm suspecting it's going to be back to 2009 numbers within a year.

 

And if you look at the big releases the past five years. LOTRO has been pretty good, not the best, but pretty good. They never peaked like Warhammer or AoC. But they didn't crash as hard either. It's about 3.5 time the size of those.

 

Aion did pretty well in it's western release with about a million subs. THough it has lost about half NA/Euro its subs since it was released. They've also lost another 600Kish of asian subs.. In total, it's about 1.1 million smaller now than when it peaked with the NA/EURO release at 4 million.

 

 

So, WoW fanboy, whom you put down was pretty much right. There have been very few long-term-growth successes in the MMO market. In fact, mostly it's peak-and-slide or peak-and-crash. My only wonder is which one of these two paths this game will follow. I really don't see it as a long-term growth MMO.

 

Too many mistakes. Too little content. And just one gimmick that gets real old...

 

You may have a relatively good point.

 

It's clouded by the fact that wow isn't really the exception, they are the bar or ground point from which all other MMO's are measured.

 

Before WoW came along, there was no fails and successes, everything before it was minimal in comparison. Now, since Blizzard has taken the Crown, every game that has come along has failed -- COMPARATIVELY SPEAKING.

 

If you were to take wow out of the equation, suddenly those 1 million to 3 million subscribed games aren't doing to bad. Before wow came along, there wasn't a great demand for MMO's, it wasn't until WoW that MMO's became very mainstream.

 

Saying WoW is an exception is one thing, but claiming that all others who don't succumb to the same level of success as Blizzard is juvenile.