SWTOR $1 million decrease in subscription

[Alssaran]

Wall Street needs to get out of the business of making games.

 

The issue is that the RNG loot box system, speeding up the acquisition of (cosmetic) goods, and even buying ridiculous amounts of currency to augment your gaming experience works. The Cartel Packs of SWTOR aren't a phenomenon of SWTOR or EA alone. Even companies like Blizzard are applying the system to their existing games. There are loot boxes in Overwatch, and I can't even begin to count how many people I know who frequently spend an additional 20-30€ a month on those boxes for the off-chance at legendary/epic skins.

 

We always like to assume that Wall Street should get out of making games - it is a system purely based on what the player wants. It's not that easy. The system is as much about subconscious attributes of the player's mind as it is about what he actively wants. It uses the same psychological aspects that tv commercials and other forms of business use. In many ways, companies are exploiting psychological weaknesses more than ever. We might like to pretend it annoys us, and it certainly does, but the companies wouldn't be adapting the RNG loot system/box system if it wasn't increasing revenue across the board.

 

SWTOR is the same as GOH: It is supposed to provide a few evenings of quick entertainment, and it is supposed to pull out additional money to accelerate said entertainment. There is no difference in subconscious behaviour and psychological triggers between people who play GOH or people who play SWTOR.

 

SWTOR is the MAIN reason for a one million dollar decrease (which is a loss of $1 mil).

 

You are, literally, using a word that is not synonymous in this context. A decrease of revenue means that the revenue is down 1% when compared to the revenue of the last two quarterly reports. It means that after an increase of 31%, the revenue is down (mainly in SWTOR) from two quarters ago. It's a relative sum compared to the last quarterly report.

 

A loss would mean that they invested money into the game that was not completely returned. If I invest 100,000$ into shares, and I later sell them for 60,000$, I made a loss of 40,000. If I invested the same 100,000$, the shares climb to 180,000€, and then back to 150,000$? There was a decrease of profit between the two months, but I could still gain 50,000$ from selling those shares. I'd have made a profit of 50%, seeing that I sold the shares for more than I bought them for.

 

The word "loss", as you seem to use it, and the phrase "decrease in overall revenue" are not synonymous.

Edited November 14, 2016 by Alssaran

[RuthSimpson]

You are, literally, using a word that is not synonymous in this context. A decrease of revenue means that the revenue is down 1% when compared to the revenue of the last two quarterly reports. It means that after an increase of 31%, the revenue is down (mainly in SWTOR) from two quarters ago. It's a relative sum compared to the last quarterly report.

 

A loss would mean that they invested money into the game that was not completely returned. If I invest 100,000$ into shares, and I later sell them for 60,000$, I made a loss of 40,000. If I invested the same 100,000€, the shares climb to 180,000€, and then back to 150,000$? There was a decrease of profit between the two months, but I could still gain 50,000$ from selling those shares. I'd have made a profit of 50%, seeing that I sold the shares for more than I bought them for.

 

The word "loss", as you seem to use it, and the phrase "decrease in overall revenue" are not synonymous.

Pretty sure he knows. You explained it perfectly well in your first post. The only reason the EA Q3 earnings were posted to the forum in the first place was to twist them into the game is dying kinda thread. CrazyCT is always right

[CrazyCT]

CrazyCT is always right

 

Whut? Can I have some of what you're smoking?

Edited November 14, 2016 by CrazyCT

[RuthSimpson]

Whut? Can I have some of what you're smoking?

Fine, I'll amend to sometimes right. It's not as dramatic that way though

[TUXs]

They didn't make a loss. they still made a profit on SWTOR. And 1 million dollars is nothing to EA. So you can stop with the ONE captitalization already. Seriously do you even like the game? You find any reason to bad mouth it.

Yet the 1 million dollar loss was enough to point out and assign blame to for EA.

 

And of course I like the game, do you? I'm not bad mouthing it at all...I didn't publish their blame for the million dollar loss, EA did that.

[CrazyCT]

Fine, I'll amend to sometimes right. It's not as dramatic that way though

 

I think even "sometimes" is too strong a word. Maybe change it to "Remember that one time Crazy was right? That was a good day." or "CT finally got something right."

Edited November 14, 2016 by CrazyCT

[RuthSimpson]

Yet the 1 million dollar loss was enough to point out and assign blame to for EA.

 

And of course I like the game, do you? I'm not bad mouthing it at all...I didn't publish their blame for the million dollar loss, EA did that.

From your posts it would seem you don't. And you might want to look up a dictionary to see what a loss is. I don't think it means what you think it means

[RuthSimpson]

I think even "sometimes" is too strong a word. Maybe change it to "Remember that one time Crazy was right? That was a good day." or "CT finally got something right."

You should totally save this thread on your bookmarks and bring it out on special occasions to remember this momentous occasion

[PlasmaJohn]

The only reason the EA Q3 earnings were posted to the forum in the first place was to twist them into the game is dying kinda thread.

Perhaps it was. The game may not be dying but its management was put on notice. Considering their plans for 5.0 I expect some new faces in 2017.

[Alssaran]

Yet the 1 million dollar loss was enough to point out and assign blame to for EA.

 

Yes, because they have to report any loss in revenue past the six digit mark. There are investment laws that force them to report it to their investors. From their point of view, losing 20k subscribers during those three months, while at the same time making a profit, is probably not a big deal. Remember they are dealing with millions of players, and a billion dollars in revenue. A billion. A decrease of ~700k for three months is nothing to them - at least if the game is still turning a solid profit through digital sales.

 

Also, SWTOR didn't lose a million dollars. It decreased subscriber revenue after reaching a subscriber high of 31% increase during KotFE release. Essentially, we might not even be back on previous lower levels. Also, it's not a million. Primary can mean anything between 30% and 99% (330k and 990k), depending on the other games in that category.

 

And of course I like the game, do you?

 

Considering that I am not trying to bash the game or developers during every opportunity: Yes, I very much like the game. This is simply your go-to response when in doubt and being called out on your crusade.

 

Considering their plans for 5.0 I expect some new faces in 2017.

 

That will largely depend on how 5.0 will do as a whole. If they manage to pick up during Q3 (until December 30th), we might not see a change soon. It'll all depend on the announced content in January.

Edited November 14, 2016 by Alssaran

[PlasmaJohn]

The issue is that the RNG loot box system, speeding up the acquisition of (cosmetic) goods, and even buying ridiculous amounts of currency to augment your gaming experience works. The Cartel Packs of SWTOR aren't a phenomenon of SWTOR or EA alone. Even companies like Blizzard are applying the system to their existing games. There are loot boxes in Overwatch, and I can't even begin to count how many people I know who frequently spend an additional 20-30€ a month on those boxes for the off-chance at legendary/epic skins.

That only works if there's a playable game underneath. Whales need more than just another shiny. They need people to play with, show off to, or sell CM items to. Good luck with that last bit now that Austin is telling Preferreds they don't want their kind here.

 

Screwing up retention means they're screwing up their whale population.

[CrazyCT]

You should totally save this thread on your bookmarks and bring it out on special occasions to remember this momentous occasion

 

You think I haven't already?

[PlasmaJohn]

That will largely depend on how 5.0 will do as a whole. If they manage to pick up during Q3 (until December 30th), we might not see a change soon. It'll all depend on the announced content in January.

As I'm sure you're aware there was a lot of excitement for KotFE especially people looking forward to The Force Awakens. Once the reality of their Story Only focus set in population pretty much fell off a cliff after January 2016.

 

The tenor regarding the announced (and unannounced) changes that come with 5.0 is far less positive. TOR will probably get a small bump next month but I expect the cliff they fall off of will make Makeb look like a hillock.

 

Unless they reverse course on the New Gearing Experience even if they announce a WoW/FFXIV sized x-pack in January the reaction to the NGE is that negative that I doubt it'll help. My guild has some very casual people, the reputed target audience for these changes, and they're all shaking their heads and evaluating other games to play.

[Alssaran]

The tenor regarding the announced (and unannounced) changes that come with 5.0 is far less positive. TOR will probably get a small bump next month but I expect the cliff they fall off of will make Makeb look like a hillock.

 

Good points, but it will largely depend on how many new people join for Rogue One. Looking at other games that offer a similar gearing experience (WoW is quite reliant on RNG gearing too), the overall impact of those changes will be seen earlier next year. Casuals and new people don't care as much about such a system than the people who have to gear again for the same content.

 

As I said, it will largely depend on what kind of content is announced, and whether that is worth gearing towards. If the content is decent enough, I can see the psychological aspects of the RNG gambling work - the same way it always worked for the Cartel Packs.

 

Don't get mad, but without any coherent evidence (numbers), the comments about "guilds re-evaluating their subscription" are completely subjective and without any actual proof. I could claim that all fifteen players within my guild don't mind the new system, but would you believe me if I did? Each of them is a casual player.

 

Without any factual numbers, we'll have to see how things pan out in the January livestream. If they adjust the system with ways to pursue certain single drops after 5.1 hits, the current system was a failure. If they don't and introduce GC passes, I could see them liking the turnout. Or there is the distinctive possibility that the overall amount of revenue won't change at all. Some old people leave, some new people join the mix. Old veterans will stay. Some of the people who claim that "this change will make them quit" have done so since 1.2.

 

The tenor regarding the announced (and unannounced) changes that come with 5.0 is far less positive.

 

Keep in mind that countless developers and community managers have commented on that phenomenon. The forums give a very narrow overview of the overall community. Displeased people are much more likely to come to a social media and vent, whereas people who enjoy the game are (still) online and playing the game, and only leaving short comments on mainstream social media.

 

This "loud minority" phenomenon was explained by multiple community managers. Not just Musco or EA staff.

Edited November 14, 2016 by Alssaran

[eartharioch]

Just so these quotes don't confuse people who are thinking in terms of the calendar year instead of the fiscal year, the "$1 million decrease in subscription" line that OP is talking about comes from the latest release: Quarter 2 of Fiscal Year 2017 (Q2 FY17). The "highest subscriber level in three years" quote Sarova and Quaker referenced is from a year ago: Q3 FY16 was October 2015 - December 2015.

 

That being said, the "highest subscriber level" quotes are pretty relevant to this discussion because the "$1 million decrease in subscription net revenue" was a year-over-year change. In July 2016 - September 2016 EA's subscription services brought in $83 million, while in July 2015 - September 2015, they had brought in $84 million.

 

What's significant is that July 2015 - September 2015 (Q2 FY16) had a large spike in subscriptions: SWTOR had a 31% increase in subscriptions from the lead-up to KotFE (and it then grew even more in Q3 FY 16). So the "$1 million decrease" is a dip relative to that large increase - seems like the subscriber numbers settled back down a bit after spiking.

 

That's not entirely accurate. Based on the numbers we've seen:

Q2 FY16 showed 84M in subscriber revenue (swtor plus others)

Q3 FY16 was swtor's biggest sub level in years (so presumably an increase in sub revenue from Q2 FY16)

Q2 FY17 was 1M less than Q2 FY16 (mainly attributed to swtor)

 

Now without knowing all the exact numbers (which the quarterly reports don't seem to want to show), the "obvious" interpretation would be that Q3 showed a large growth spike which didn't just "settle down", but was completely erased and accompanied by an erosion of the previous year's revenue.

 

That's definitely not "dying" as some people have said, but it's clearly a signal that whatever BW accomplished short term last year (story > group) was not viable for long term. So it really isn't surprising that this year's expansion is 9 chapters (like what generated last year's spike), but instead of dribbling out additional chapters each month BW is trying to slow down progression (third time's a charm, lol) until they can get some more group content out.

 

IMO, less RNG (keep old ops token and wz comm gear) coupled with GC's new RNG (for people who don't usually gear up through ops/wzs) would be less antagonistic, as long as *some* new group content (other than Uprisings, e.g., Star Fortress 2 -- i.e., new "traditional" FPs and OPs and wzs, return 8v8 ranked) is added, and a lot more palatable.

[Celise]

I am sorry but you are incorrect. Legion had a very successful launch and as with any expac in any game there is always a rush and then a bit of drop.

 

However, Legion is doing very well.

http://www.polygon.com/2016/9/8/12851794/world-of-warcraft-legion-sales-launch-day-subscribers-record

 

Now Bilzzard did come out in early October to dispel the 10 million rumor or at least wouldn't confirm it. However, one doesn't need to be a statistician to realize the game population is very healthy.

 

Please stop trying to convince yourself WoW is on the decline. It just isn't true. It remains a very healthy game from a player population perspective even months after the release

 

You can try and argue it is a grind, or its gated, the RNG sucks, or all the other stuff people mention. The reality is no game can be everything to everyone. However, WoW has found a very strong model with Legion and it is working just fine. Having made the switch from this game I am incredibly surprised after hearing mostly negative things about it. I just stopped listening and tried it myself and I'm having a blast with it.

 

I just wish SWTOR could find a solid model that worked even half as well as clearly KOTFE wasn't it.

 

Regardless if WoW is dying or not, eventually Blizzard will have to consider what to do next with that product, that is the most interesting question that players will have to face when that day comes. popularity of the product is irrelevant. Remember CoH? that was shut down quite suddenly, all i am saying is that you shouldn't be too concerned with numbers, what you should be more concerned with is when blizzard will decide that WoW has had it's time and prepare for that day, if and when it comes.

[Alssaran]

IMO, less RNG (keep old ops token and wz comm gear) coupled with GC's new RNG (for people who don't usually gear up through ops/wzs) would be less antagonistic, as long as *some* new group content (other than Uprisings, e.g., Star Fortress 2 -- i.e., new "traditional" FPs and OPs and wzs, return 8v8 ranked) is added, and a lot more palatable.

 

The biggest contributing factor to subscriber retention will be (as I pointed out) the group content stream in January. If there is some new group content, and even something that doesn't follow the previous Operation/FP paradigm, we might see a better player retention than last year.

 

You won't get back the operation players, obviously, but the main issue was the lack of group content that challenged you and friends to do it. Uprisings do have multiple difficulties. Even if they are easy for the veteran player to accomplish, the master tier in January-February will probably keep some people occupied. And they are at least slightly more positive than SFs. You have multiple designs, different bosses, multiple difficulties, and you can do it as a group.

 

I agree that the new approach is an attempt to balance out story and group content releases inbetween. However, I strongly believe that Bioware thinks three-four weeks are easily doable in terms of player retention. The new system is going live for all on November 29th. Subtracting the one week holiday that most people spend with families, the new streams will start in January. I think they're assuming that the new gearing system will keep the player input of Rogue One after December 15th occupied for three weeks.

 

That's not an unreasonable guess, but Bioware has to deliver in the January stream. We probably have stronger feelings about the gearing system than a "noob" who has not worked to access the current content thrice, or people who were away for years.

 

Edit:

 

that was shut down quite suddenly, all i am saying is that you shouldn't be too concerned with numbers, what you should be more concerned with is when blizzard will decide that WoW has had it's time and prepare for that day, if and when it comes.

 

Blizzard is setting up the WoW Lore to allow for a new group of antagonists to take over - Void Gods and Void Lords. They are the very reason Sargeras went mad in the first place, and an actual world soul turned Void Lord is the most dangerous threat the Warcraft universe has to offer.

 

Blizzard has set up the chronicle series to prepare for this new threat. It'll also include Ashara and N'zoth, seeing that the "Old Gods" are their parasitic minions who try to turn a World Soul (Such as "Elune" in the core of Azeroth). For more information: Warcraft: Chronicles I. Blizzard knows their product is far from over.

Edited November 14, 2016 by Alssaran

[TUXs]

From your posts it would seem you don't.

Then perhaps you have issues reading. I'm expressing my opinions of upcoming changes...of which RNG based gearing is the ultimate in BAD IDEAS. If I didn't like the game, I'd support RNG based gearing because it will obviously decrease SWTOR's revenue again.

Considering that I am not trying to bash the game or developers during every opportunity: Yes, I very much like the game. This is simply your go-to response when in doubt and being called out on your crusade.

How exactly does staying silent and supporting a change that WILL negatively impact the game, help? If you like the game, tell them what a terrible idea RNG based gearing is. Stop hiding behind your blind addiction to the game as a reason you think it's going to be OK...it WON'T be. Edited November 14, 2016 by TUXs

[RuthSimpson]

Then perhaps you have issues reading. I'm expressing my opinions of upcoming changes...of which RNG based gearing is the ultimate in BAD IDEAS. If I didn't like the game, I'd support RNG based gearing because it will obviously decrease SWTOR's revenue again.

How exactly does staying silent and supporting a change that WILL negatively impact the game, help? If you like the game, tell them what a terrible idea RNG based gearing is. Stop hiding behind your blind addiction to the game as a reason you think it's going to be OK...it WON'T be.

Wow, didn't realise you were omniscient! My mistake! Any changes swtor make you say are the worst ever. I would take your posts more seriously if they didn't have the same apocalyptic view all the time. And I like the new GC system. I know thats forbon to say on the forums but it's true. I like being able to play all different bits of content to level up gear. I really don't think the RNG too bad either. Specially with the mechanic that you can trash items from crates to go up in the next cxp lvl.

[TUXs]

Wow, didn't realise you were omniscient! My mistake! Any changes swtor make you say are the worst ever. I would take your posts more seriously if they didn't have the same apocalyptic view all the time. And I like the new GC system. I know thats forbon to say on the forums but it's true. I like being able to play all different bits of content to level up gear. I really don't think the RNG too bad either. Specially with the mechanic that you can trash items from crates to go up in the next cxp lvl.

If it were just a change where random crap we do also gave a chance for end game gear, that would be a marvelous change!!! One I would 100% support. But sadly, SWTOR is still going to be a gear based game...and until you have all the best gear again, you won't be able to do the 5-yr old content you've been doing the past 5-years. PvP will be impacted. Ranked PvP will be deeply impacted. PuG FPs and Ops will be impacted negatively. Guild runs will be negatively impacted. Progression raiders (the handful left) will be impacted. RNG gearing is great for you...but it's not for many. For many, it will be a grind they won't be able to overcome. That guy who was willing to swap to a healer when you had too many DPS, won't be as likely to switch toons now. RNG gearing isn't just bad because it's RNG inside of RNG, it's also TOON specific. It could not be implemented in a worse way.

[RuthSimpson]

RNG gearing is great for you...but it's not for many. For many, it will be a grind they won't be able to overcome. That guy who was willing to swap to a healer when you had too many DPS, won't be as likely to switch toons now. RNG gearing isn't just bad because it's RNG inside of RNG, it's also TOON specific. It could not be implemented in a worse way.

 

Except gearing is not working for me now. To get into higher gear stuff, you need higher gear. Unless I spend a long time saving crystals (the best way is via harder grouping btw) I wouldn't be able to get good gear to try out the different content. That process would take me months and my gear would still not be as good as in ops. I'm casual, I don't have the time for a dedicated raid group to get them to gear me up, and I've don't know if I like ops cus I've only done one SM when a guild need a DPS (I gave warnings about my ineptitude- wasn't the worst woooooooo!!!). I didn't get gear (got two mounts instead).

 

The current system is designed around raiders, it benefits only raiders. I have nothing against raiders but SWTOR is not a primarly raiding game. I think they needed to change the gearing system so that more people could get into and try different content. Ironically, it could get more new people into raiding. The new system may not be perfect to start with but I think BW can tweak it to get the numbers right. The truth is the current gearing system does put a lot of people off from trying content.

Edited November 14, 2016 by RuthSimpson

[PlasmaJohn]

The biggest contributing factor to subscriber retention will be (as I pointed out) the group content stream in January. If there is some new group content, and even something that doesn't follow the previous Operation/FP paradigm, we might see a better player retention than last year.

New content would be great but without a reasonable catch-up mechanic it'll be futile.

 

Sure some people will stick around to do it but like TUX pointed out the NGE is character specific. Forget role hopping to fill a roster deficiency. Forget onboarding a new person because you just lost your MT. Heck even trying to maintain two sets of gear (role flex) is going to suck. The loss of one person can and will halt progression until they have the minimum gear needed to tackle the content.

 

Just by itself the RNG gear will have a huge negative impact on retention regardless of what content gets announced in January.

[TUXs]

Except gearing is not working for me now. To get into higher gear stuff, you need higher gear. Unless I spend a long time saving crystals (the best way is via harder grouping btw) I wouldn't be able to get good gear to try out the different content. That process would take me months and my gear would still not be as good as in ops. I'm casual, I don't have the time for a dedicated raid group to get them to gear me up, and I've don't know if I like ops cus I've only done one SM when a guild need a DPS (I gave warnings about my ineptitude- wasn't the worst woooooooo!!!). I didn't get gear (got two mounts instead).

 

The current system is designed around raiders, it benefits only raiders. I have nothing against raiders but SWTOR is not a primarly raiding game. I think they needed to change the gearing system so that more people could get into and try different content. Ironically, it could get more new people into raiding. The new system may not be perfect to start with but I think BW can tweak it to get the numbers right. The truth is the current gearing system does put a lot of people off from trying content.

And that's where this change would be helpful...for players like YOU! Not for players who PvP, PvE, swap roles, swap toons, and help where it's needed.

 

If this change only impacted how players like YOU got gear, I would absolutely support it!!! I want YOU to try Ops. I want you to try PvP! I love helping new players out and I'm thrilled you'll finally be able to gear up before entering the places you fear - the gear gap has ALWAYS bothered me. I HATE that players like you were looked down upon because of your gear...everyone needed to start somewhere.

 

But that's not the limit of it's impact. While this helps you out, far too many players are going to be hurt by it. It's a good attempt to include players like you, but it's at the expense of the people I play with every day. That's NOT good for the game. That's where my issue is with this whole RNG in RNG boxes limited to the toon you're on only.

 

Why can't they keep the current system and also implement this? They could easily please BOTH types of players. An abundance of gear hasn't stopped me from playing ever...nor anyone I know.

Edited November 14, 2016 by TUXs

[curulz]

And that's where this change would be helpful...for players like YOU! Not for players who PvP, PvE, swap roles, swap toons, and help where it's needed.

 

If this change only impacted how players like YOU got gear, I would absolutely support it!!! I want YOU to try Ops. I want you to try PvP! I love helping new players out and I'm thrilled you'll finally be able to gear up before entering the places you fear - the gear gap has ALWAYS bothered me. I HATE that players like you were looked down upon because of your gear...everyone needed to start somewhere.

 

But that's not the limit of it's impact. While this helps you out, far too many players are going to be hurt by it. It's a good attempt to include players like you, but it's at the expense of the people I play with every day. That's NOT good for the game. That's where my issue is with this whole RNG in RNG boxes limited to the toon you're on only.

 

Why can't they keep the current system and also implement this? They could easily please BOTH types of players. An abundance of gear hasn't stopped me from playing ever...nor anyone I know.

 

Agreed. They could have designed something for others to obtain gear without nuking the way others obtain gear.

[RuthSimpson]

Why can't they keep the current system and also implement this? Please BOTH types of players. An abundance of gear hasn't stopped me from playing ever...nor anyone I know.

I think you'd actually be surprised how many players like me there are. I think they have to change the sytem cus partly it was never their design intention to have everyone gear in one night, they want pve and pvp players to try each others content and cus the priority system is messing up progression, and causing people to do only EV and KP. They want everyone to try and do a bit of every content, which you can even see from the DvL event. I honestly think they are trying to up numbers to justify increase spending in group content. The new system will be different and unlikely to be 100 % correct right away but I think it's a good base that BW can fiddle about with to get right. They've already changed the drops to be based on discipline instead of advanced class due to feedback