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Statistical averages on the RNG of getting a full set of gear for a single spec.


Khevar

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UPDATED NUMBERS.

 

Based on the fact that the crate will drop gear based off of discipline rather than advanced class (mentioned in the livestream), I'll assume the following gear pool for a tank:

 

4 relics (Serenity / Crusader / Shield / Reactive)

2 implants (Bastion / Bulwark)

2 earpieces (Bastion / Bulwark)

7 (head / chest / wrist / gloves / belt / leg / feet )

1 mainhand

1 offhand

 

17 possibilities.

 

Filling all 14 slots with gear drops would require an average of 55 crates.

The unlucky 5% on the right side of the bell curve would require 92 or more crates.

 

Filling 10 slots with gear drops (6 set bonus, 4 from crafting) takes an average of 28 crates.

The unlucky 5% would require 47 or more crates.

I'm guessing this is still assuming armorings are bound to slot? They basically said in the live stream that they were not sure if the armorings were even removable. If we get lucky and they remove the restriction, it should make it less grindy then.

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Well not really.

 

So there are 100 CXP levels, you get the top gear from level 70 onward. Few assumptions to make here -

 

The average crate rate is 1 per hour.

You want a full set from this method.

 

So to get to rank 70 would be 70 hours played and from that point on you'd need 52 more crates to have the average amount required to fully gear that character. In total that's 122 crates or 122 hours.

 

Assuming you play for on average 3 hours per day that means it will take you a total of 41 days to gear up each character.

 

As a comparison it's now around 30 hours (if that) to get a fully min max PvP set.

 

Yes, it's bad, very bad but it's at least semi-workable. The initial info was a deal breaker. This is ... more or less bordering deal breaker but i guess i can do it - once.

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I just wish they would understand that if a system has no good alternative to RNG, they are throwing people to the wolves. The philosophy that RNG "hides" the grind and gives people that special feeling when they get a surprise cool item is fine and all*, but you need alternatives, or you are guaranteed to have people who will *********** hate you for it because they have terrible luck.

 

Supposedly, crafting might be something of an alternative, but it's weird to me that they didn't bring it up on the stream, making me think it's not going to be much of one, or at least not an easy one.

 

*I don't know if this is the philosophy they are operating on, but it's a fairly common justification for RNG in the industry.

Edited by Rolodome
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Well not really.

 

So there are 100 CXP levels, you get the top gear from level 70 onward. Few assumptions to make here -

 

The average crate rate is 1 per hour.

You want a full set from this method.

 

So to get to rank 70 would be 70 hours played and from that point on you'd need 52 more crates to have the average amount required to fully gear that character. In total that's 122 crates or 122 hours.

 

Assuming you play for on average 3 hours per day that means it will take you a total of 41 days to gear up each character.

 

As a comparison it's now around 30 hours (if that) to get a fully min max PvP set.

 

You're assuming you're not disintegrating the ones you don't want, you could conceivably shave that time significantly (depending on the conversion rate).

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Well not really.

 

So there are 100 CXP levels, you get the top gear from level 70 onward. Few assumptions to make here -

 

The average crate rate is 1 per hour.

You want a full set from this method.

 

So to get to rank 70 would be 70 hours played and from that point on you'd need 52 more crates to have the average amount required to fully gear that character. In total that's 122 crates or 122 hours.

 

Assuming you play for on average 3 hours per day that means it will take you a total of 41 days to gear up each character.

 

As a comparison it's now around 30 hours (if that) to get a fully min max PvP set.

 

Well unless gear has an additional command rank requirement aside from level 70 you should be able to swap tier 3 gear to alts via legacy shells once you hit max rank. You can also save up boxes and then swap disciplines to gear up alts that are tank or heals. So the first character will be the hardest and it is more economical to grind levels on one main rather than on an alt since you can get tier 3 gear straight away for your alts unless there is a lockout of some kind I'm unaware of.

 

At most you will need 2 max characters to cover all disciplines and then they serve to feed your alts with tier 3 gear and while playing on alts you will also fill out additional slots naturally.

 

If you have lots of characters to gear you should increase in speed unless there is a strict rank requirement for tier 3 gear but so far they have not mentioned anything like that. You could also spend credits and gear out everything aside from set bonuses with crafted stuff.

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Well unless gear has an additional command rank requirement aside from level 70 you should be able to swap tier 3 gear to alts via legacy shells once you hit max rank. You can also save up boxes and then swap disciplines to gear up alts that are tank or heals. So the first character will be the hardest and it is more economical to grind levels on one main rather than on an alt since you can get tier 3 gear straight away for your alts unless there is a lockout of some kind I'm unaware of.

 

At most you will need 2 max characters to cover all disciplines and then they serve to feed your alts with tier 3 gear and while playing on alts you will also fill out additional slots naturally.

 

If you have lots of characters to gear you should increase in speed unless there is a strict rank requirement for tier 3 gear but so far they have not mentioned anything like that. You could also spend credits and gear out everything aside from set bonuses with crafted stuff.

 

As long as that alt is the same class and spec then yeah that works well. Not sure what good earning crates on my operative will be for my Jugg.

 

You're assuming you're not disintegrating the ones you don't want, you could conceivably shave that time significantly (depending on the conversion rate).

 

This is spot on but we have no idea what the conversion rate will be. Even with a very generous refund though these times still give us a decent idea of what we're looking at.

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UPDATED NUMBERS.

 

Based on the fact that the crate will drop gear based off of discipline rather than advanced class (mentioned in the livestream), I'll assume the following gear pool for a tank:

 

4 relics (Serenity / Crusader / Shield / Reactive)

2 implants (Bastion / Bulwark)

2 earpieces (Bastion / Bulwark)

7 (head / chest / wrist / gloves / belt / leg / feet )

1 mainhand

1 offhand

 

17 possibilities.

 

Filling all 14 slots with gear drops would require an average of 55 crates.

The unlucky 5% on the right side of the bell curve would require 92 or more crates.

 

Filling 10 slots with gear drops (6 set bonus, 4 from crafting) takes an average of 28 crates.

The unlucky 5% would require 47 or more crates.

 

That is way, waaaay too fast to gear up. Given that they expect the average player to get 1 crate an hour, hardcore players will be fully kitted within a week. Then watch how fast they rush to the forums complaining they are bored.

 

And lets not forget that armorings and mods can be removed and transferred to alts (via legacy gear), so gearing your alts will be quick as well.

Edited by Zhedzaban
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That is way, waaaay too fast to gear up. Given that they expect the average player to get 1 crate an hour, hardcore players will be fully kitted within a week. Then watch how fast they rush to the forums complaining they are bored.

Why do you feel that gear is the END of gameplay? Is that the only reason you're here? Are you going to stop playing PvE the moment you've got BiS?

 

And what about PvP? Would you stop playing once you get good gear? That's practically backwards! Once you've got good gear, the real PvP game begins.

 

You're being silly.

Edited by Khevar
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That is way, waaaay too fast to gear up. Given that they expect the average player to get 1 crate an hour, hardcore players will be fully kitted within a week. Then watch how fast they rush to the forums complaining they are bored.

 

And lets not forget that armorings and mods can be removed and transferred to alts (via legacy gear), so gearing your alts will be quick as well.

 

Honestly, it feels about right to me. I am extremely happy to see they quickly embraced the need to make the boxes Discipline specific.

 

Players are never going to agree on how long it should take to gear...... but reasonable people will see this strikes a pretty good balance to be honest. Not too short, not too long. And gear is simply an onramp to other game play, and you do not need a perfect and complete set before leaving the onramp except for the very hardest or most competitive content.

Edited by Andryah
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The mathematical proof would be (assuming loot table of 20, so you'd get some relics, earpieces and implants you don't want):

 

1st piece: 1 crate for average, 3+ crates for unlucky 5% (remember, some relics/earpieces/implants that aren't optimal)

2nd piece: 1 crate for average; 3+ crates for unlucky 5%

3rd piece: 1 crate for average, 4+ crates for unlucky 5%

4th piece: 1 crate for average, 4+ crates for unlucky 5%

5th piece: 1 crate for average, 5+ crates for unlucky 5%

6th piece: 2 crates for average, 5+ crates for unlucky 5%

7th piece: 2 crates for average, 6+ crates for unlucky 5%

8th piece: 2 crates for average, 7+ crates for unlucky 5%

9th piece: 2 crates for average, 9+ crates for unlucky 5%

10th piece: 3 crates for average, 11+ crates for unlucky 5%

11th piece: 4 crates for average, 14+ crates for unlucky 5%

12th piece: 5 crates for average, 19+ crates for unlucky 5%

13th piece: 7 crates for average, 29+ crates for unlucky 5%

14th piece: 14 crates for average, 59+ crates for unlucky 5%

 

So for a totally average player, you'd have to open about 46 crates to get a full set of gear. For someone who is unlucky, you're potentially looking at well over a hundred crates. (Keep in mind that you can't simply add up the numbers in the unlucky 5% column, because that would mean you're in the unlucky 5% on every single piece -- the odds of that are astronomically small (0.05 ^ 14, basically). Basically, on each piece you have a 50% chance of doing better than average, and a 50% chance of doing worse than average, and you have to calculate each draw separately.

 

The formula I'm using is

1 - (1 - ((15 - set piece number) / 20) ^ number of crates for percentile.

 

So for example, for set piece number 14, the formula is:

1 - (1 - 1/20)^14 = 51.2%, meaning that the ~ average player needs to open 14 crates.

1 - (1 - 1/20)^59 = 95.2%, meaning that the unluckiest 4.8% of players will need to open a minimum of 59 crates to get the last set piece they need. The numbers get astronomically higher as you get unluckier. The unlucky 1%, for example, would need to open 90 crates just for the last set piece.

 

For the average player, I don't think 46 hours (assuming 1 crate per hour) is bad at all. But I pity those of you who are unlucky. That's the problem with RNG... As you can see, it's actually not so bad until you're trying to get your last few set pieces. Then, most of the crates you're opening will contain duplicates of what you already have. The first few pieces will come quite quickly though.

Edited by Dr_Nex
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The mathematical proof would be (assuming loot table of 20, so you'd get some relics, earpieces and implants you don't want):

 

1st piece: 1 crate for average, 3+ crates for unlucky 5% (remember, some relics/earpieces/implants that aren't optimal)

2nd piece: 1 crate for average; 3+ crates for unlucky 5%

3rd piece: 1 crate for average, 4+ crates for unlucky 5%

4th piece: 1 crate for average, 4+ crates for unlucky 5%

5th piece: 1 crate for average, 5+ crates for unlucky 5%

6th piece: 2 crates for average, 5+ crates for unlucky 5%

7th piece: 2 crates for average, 6+ crates for unlucky 5%

8th piece: 2 crates for average, 7+ crates for unlucky 5%

9th piece: 2 crates for average, 9+ crates for unlucky 5%

10th piece: 3 crates for average, 11+ crates for unlucky 5%

11th piece: 4 crates for average, 14+ crates for unlucky 5%

12th piece: 5 crates for average, 19+ crates for unlucky 5%

13th piece: 7 crates for average, 29+ crates for unlucky 5%

14th piece: 14 crates for average, 59+ crates for unlucky 5%

 

So for a totally average player, you'd have to open about 60 crates to get a full set of gear. For someone in the unlucky 5%, you're looking at hundreds of crates, quite literally.

 

The formula I'm using is

1 - (1 - ((15 - set piece number) / 20) ^ number of crates for percentile.

 

So for example, for set piece number 14, the formula is:

1 - (1 - 1/20)^14 = 51.2%, meaning that the ~ average player needs to open 14 crates.

1 - (1 - 1/20)^59 = 95.2%, meaning that the unluckiest 4.8% of players will need to open a minimum of 59 crates to get the last set piece they need. The numbers get astronomically higher as you get unluckier. The unlucky 1%, for example, would need to open 90 crates just for the last set piece.

 

And the extreme outlier is that you NEVER get the last piece.

But nobody is going to be still here if they are even close to that unlucky :)

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The mathematical proof would be (assuming loot table of 20, so you'd get some relics, earpieces and implants you don't want):

 

1st piece: 1 crate for average, 3+ crates for unlucky 5% (remember, some relics/earpieces/implants that aren't optimal)

2nd piece: 1 crate for average; 3+ crates for unlucky 5%

3rd piece: 1 crate for average, 4+ crates for unlucky 5%

4th piece: 1 crate for average, 4+ crates for unlucky 5%

5th piece: 1 crate for average, 5+ crates for unlucky 5%

6th piece: 2 crates for average, 5+ crates for unlucky 5%

7th piece: 2 crates for average, 6+ crates for unlucky 5%

8th piece: 2 crates for average, 7+ crates for unlucky 5%

9th piece: 2 crates for average, 9+ crates for unlucky 5%

10th piece: 3 crates for average, 11+ crates for unlucky 5%

11th piece: 4 crates for average, 14+ crates for unlucky 5%

12th piece: 5 crates for average, 19+ crates for unlucky 5%

13th piece: 7 crates for average, 29+ crates for unlucky 5%

14th piece: 14 crates for average, 59+ crates for unlucky 5%

 

So for a totally average player, you'd have to open about 46 crates to get a full set of gear. For someone who is unlucky, you're potentially looking at well over a hundred crates. (Keep in mind that you can't simply add up the numbers in the unlucky 5% column, because that would mean you're in the unlucky 5% on every single piece -- the odds of that are astronomically small (0.05 ^ 14, basically). Basically, on each piece you have a 50% chance of doing better than average, and a 50% chance of doing worse than average, and you have to calculate each draw separately.

 

The formula I'm using is

1 - (1 - ((15 - set piece number) / 20) ^ number of crates for percentile.

 

So for example, for set piece number 14, the formula is:

1 - (1 - 1/20)^14 = 51.2%, meaning that the ~ average player needs to open 14 crates.

1 - (1 - 1/20)^59 = 95.2%, meaning that the unluckiest 4.8% of players will need to open a minimum of 59 crates to get the last set piece they need. The numbers get astronomically higher as you get unluckier. The unlucky 1%, for example, would need to open 90 crates just for the last set piece.

 

For the average player, I don't think 46 hours (assuming 1 crate per hour) is bad at all. But I pity those of you who are unlucky. That's the problem with RNG... As you can see, it's actually not so bad until you're trying to get your last few set pieces. Then, most of the crates you're opening will contain duplicates of what you already have. The first few pieces will come quite quickly though

.

 

I'm that unlucky 5%. I'm going to keep a record of how long it'll take me to gear just one character, if it takes longer than 30 hours per character before I can start to enjoy my end-game experience per character then the system is already flawed as hell in a game that promotes alt play.

 

If you have all advanced classes, essentially, on the assumption that it'll take 60 hours to gear that character you are now looking at, with 14 seperate set bonuses in play, 840 total play hours just to get all of the set bonuses needed for all of the disciplines. That doesn't include the 70 hours play (on the assumption it'll take 1 hour per Command Rank) per character to get the top tier.

 

Whichever way you wish to look at it, that is pretty much grind right there. Even with improved chances if they narrow down the RNG by making the loot table smaller to pull from.

 

Remember, we're talking about being able to get to the stage to just enjoy the end-game content. The gear grind isn't the end-game content.

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Talked this over with a buddy of mine (who doesn't play SWTOR but is very mathy), and we came to the conclusion that the devs aren't realizing how "expensive" each "nine of confidence" is; they're just looking at the averages and not calculating far enough out on the curve.

 

The minimum time to gear is 7, or 9, or 14 boxes (depending on what's in the box). The average time to gear is known to BWA (if they don't know it, then they have no business using RNG methods), and depends on what's in the box, and how many options per slot there are on the left hand side (if those are in the boxes. I wouldn't have put them there, myself, because doing so makes things screwball - I'd have put the mats to make them in the boxes instead and let people buy off the GTN or craft them themselves; and additional mats as boss/elite drops.)

 

Eric, can you take to the devs that there needs to be a "stop loss" point, some point where it is actually guaranteed, not just statistically likely at 90% confidence or whatever, that someone can complete their gearing via command crates alone. (and that this point needs to be reasonable, like around twice the "average" time to gear or so).

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The best way to remove the potential for outlier events is to also include a token in the crate drop that bind on pickup. If you were to acquire X number of tokens, you could turn them in for a piece of gear. So, just in case you have to open a bunch of crates for that last piece, you should have accumulated enough tokens to just purchase it. Solves the entire problem of massive outlier unlucky players.
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Talked this over with a buddy of mine (who doesn't play SWTOR but is very mathy), and we came to the conclusion that the devs aren't realizing how "expensive" each "nine of confidence" is; they're just looking at the averages and not calculating far enough out on the curve.

 

The minimum time to gear is 7, or 9, or 14 boxes (depending on what's in the box). The average time to gear is known to BWA (if they don't know it, then they have no business using RNG methods), and depends on what's in the box, and how many options per slot there are on the left hand side (if those are in the boxes. I wouldn't have put them there, myself, because doing so makes things screwball - I'd have put the mats to make them in the boxes instead and let people buy off the GTN or craft them themselves; and additional mats as boss/elite drops.)

 

Eric, can you take to the devs that there needs to be a "stop loss" point, some point where it is actually guaranteed, not just statistically likely at 90% confidence or whatever, that someone can complete their gearing via command crates alone. (and that this point needs to be reasonable, like around twice the "average" time to gear or so).

 

I like the idea of mats dropping instead, that way as a guild you can quickly get someone up to speed faster without worrying about drop rates and rng.

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The best way to remove the potential for outlier events is to also include a token in the crate drop that bind on pickup. If you were to acquire X number of tokens, you could turn them in for a piece of gear. So, just in case you have to open a bunch of crates for that last piece, you should have accumulated enough tokens to just purchase it. Solves the entire problem of massive outlier unlucky players.

 

Lovely solution, and I endorse it. Except that it requires picking gear from a vendor; which is (And I know a lot of you won't agree with me) a terribly bad UX experience.

 

A similar solution is count the number of times you disintegrate in a row. Each time you disintegrate an item, the item is removed from the drop table, until you keep an item, at which point the drop table resets. Display the number of disintegrations, and the total number of items left in the drop table; so you know how many more boxes you must get to get something you want to keep. (For the statted gear item slot).

 

Tokens would be better for a drop table that includes left-hand side items, the math gets fugly fast for the counter solution for a drop table that includes multiple item choices per slot, and the maximum box count gets expensive indeed.

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Well I would imagine the first 70 Command Crates would result in disintegration, if the goal is end-game gearing.

 

Then nothing will drop after you've nixed all the items on the drop table, or the "no" table will reset :). And that's probably another (unstated) reason for the cap in CXP.

 

OTOH, if you want to do that, more power to you. But that means you're doing the endgame in crafted gear, and will have the limitations thereof. Without knowing what the limitations and costs of gearing in crafted gear is, I can't say which strategy is better. Hopefully it'll be a valid choice - keep your early and mid-range dropped gear to speed your CXP acquisition via adventuring, or take the gear hit and harder work to gain your non-max CXP now, in exchange for the boosts to CXP you get from disintegration.

Edited by IanArgent
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There is a variable that we haven't considered yet. At some command rank, you will have moved into the new tier of gear.

 

IF you have your set bonus, then really any drop will be of use to you, on the first new box anyway.

IF you DON'T have a set bonus, then it is a little more complex.

 

I don't know that there is a way to tease that out, or if its really relevant mathematically, since what the simulations are estimating is time to fill 14 or 10 gear slots. But its certainly relevant functionally.

 

If old set bonus pieces stacked with the new gear, it would help mitigate the worst case scenario ... but only if bolster in pve works like it does in pvp and is a check at the level of the gear slot, not the total stats.

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There is a variable that we haven't considered yet. At some command rank, you will have moved into the new tier of gear.

 

This variable has been considered.

 

IF you have your set bonus, then really any drop will be of use to you, on the first new box anyway.

IF you DON'T have a set bonus, then it is a little more complex.

 

It is entirely possible that you won't have your set bonuses complete before you start getting gear boxes of a higher tier of gear.

 

I don't know that there is a way to tease that out, or if its really relevant mathematically, since what the simulations are estimating is time to fill 14 or 10 gear slots. But its certainly relevant functionally.

 

We have 14 slots for gear. That is a simple fact. Of course for people doing HM content and PvP, particularly ranked, getting the highest tier is of importance. If you are happy with the lower tiers, it doesn't really matter though because you still have 14 slots to fill just the same. So I'm not sure what you are trying to say here.

 

If old set bonus pieces stacked with the new gear, it would help mitigate the worst case scenario ... but only if bolster in pve works like it does in pvp and is a check at the level of the gear slot, not the total stats.

 

There is no reason to assume they will be compatible as they weren't in the past, but I guess you never know. If you rely on bolster though it means you best wait with equipping the gear from gearboxes till you have the set complete.

 

That brings me to another point because if SM ops still have bolsters and I can do story and heroics in existing gear, then I don't need gear to level up my GC level. In that case I would probably be best to race to level 70 in GC and not open any crates at all, since I wouldn't need them. Then I can open my 70 crates and get BiS gear assuming that the gear level is determined upon opening them rather than when you receive them.

 

I think this may be the best way to approach this sytem. Just rush to 70 with content that doesn't need gear and then open them crates.

 

I wonder, does anybody know if the gear tier is determined upone receiving the gearbox or when opening them?

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Then nothing will drop after you've nixed all the items on the drop table, or the "no" table will reset :). And that's probably another (unstated) reason for the cap in CXP. .

 

If the way I'm seeing it is correct, GC has 100 ranks, and above 70 is where the tier 3 gear is meant to start. So the first two tiers of gear are irrelevant if you already have a set bonus and can cope with bolster / level sync mechanics. So those first 70 command crate are essentially just a waste of time, for established characters. Hence disintegrate, gain the CXP boost and then wait for the RNG for tier 3 only.

 

I don't see the point in futility in even bothering trying to get tier one and two sets, unless you intend to punt those off to alts via legacy gear for whatever reasoning (maybe one hasn't been geared yet or is in really old gear).

 

I know why there is a CXP cap, aside from the artificial limitation on how quickly players can "gear up", because you can guarantee that there is a way to gain fast CXP in the game that will have already occured to some players. Equally this is the reason why you'll have to gain 70 levels first, because otherwise players with multiple alts will just jump across each one and be geared within one week.

 

Which still doesn't do anything for players that may be pushing a new character up to 70 at a later date.

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If the way I'm seeing it is correct, GC has 100 ranks, and above 70 is where the tier 3 gear is meant to start. So the first two tiers of gear are irrelevant if you already have a set bonus and can cope with bolster / level sync mechanics. So those first 70 command crate are essentially just a waste of time, for established characters. Hence disintegrate, gain the CXP boost and then wait for the RNG for tier 3 only.

 

All of the gear from crates after you are level 70 will be better than 224. So every crate will be an improvement over what you could possibly have today, even in full 224s. But yes, the best of the best will not drop until you're a higher tier.

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If the way I'm seeing it is correct, GC has 100 ranks, and above 70 is where the tier 3 gear is meant to start. So the first two tiers of gear are irrelevant if you already have a set bonus and can cope with bolster / level sync mechanics. So those first 70 command crate are essentially just a waste of time, for established characters. Hence disintegrate, gain the CXP boost and then wait for the RNG for tier 3 only.

 

I don't see the point in futility in even bothering trying to get tier one and two sets, unless you intend to punt those off to alts via legacy gear for whatever reasoning (maybe one hasn't been geared yet or is in really old gear).

 

I know why there is a CXP cap, aside from the artificial limitation on how quickly players can "gear up", because you can guarantee that there is a way to gain fast CXP in the game that will have already occured to some players. Equally this is the reason why you'll have to gain 70 levels first, because otherwise players with multiple alts will just jump across each one and be geared within one week.

 

Which still doesn't do anything for players that may be pushing a new character up to 70 at a later date.

 

Well, it depends. Is the gear tier determined when you receive the box or when you open it? If it's the latter you can open your boxes at level 70 GC and get tier 3 gear from the boxes you collected so far. That means some people will probably be fully geared in one or two weeks depending on how much time they can put in and what the actual cap is.

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I'm not willing to bet there's a bolster above the last tier of credit available gear. If you can do the content in the credits-available gear, go for it. But I expect that the intermediate tier gear will help you go through all the content faster, so you'll be at GCL cap faster than if you disintegrated it all.

 

I also expect there to be 3 qualities of command crates, so that saving the crates wont' be a viable strategy

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