Unstable Arbiter’s Lightsaber - missing?

[Pellerinen]

This response is separated from utter gibberish by only the thinnest of margins.

 

For starters, no matter how you slice it, 12 hypercrates give you a total of 720 draws (2 items per pack, remember), not 360.

 

If the contents are determined when the hypercrate is created (i.e. when you claim it from the CM panel), there are 720 items, so there are 720 chances for an item to be an unstable sabre (or whatever else you might be seeking).

 

If the contents are determined when the packs are removed from the hypercrates, there are 720 items, so 720 chances blah, blah, blah.

 

If the contents are determined when the packs are opened, there are 720 items, so 720 chances ...

 

In short, no matter when they choose the items (unless there's a "one copy of X per crate" rule), it's 720 chances if you open 12 hypercrates.

 

Oh, I think I understand what you mean... you are not talking about the chance of getting a certain item, you're talking about how many tries you have of getting it. Which, I believe, no one is even slighty interested in.

 

To know the actual chances of getting said item, you need to know, as you say, the number of rolls you have. Then you also have to know the roll mechanics, what are the propabilities of getting a certain result...let's say, for the point of argument, that the chances are 60% to get a chance cube, 30% to get a silver item, and 10% to get a gold one. These bear no relation to the actual propabilites of course. Now, you need to calculate the amount of silver items, and the amount of gold items...

 

Silver:

There's 3 Darth Skotia boxes, 3 Squadron Commander boxes, 3 Exiled Knight boxes, 3 Merc Slicer boxes, Uxibeast, 4 crystals, Korrealis Marquis, 3 Vibroswords, astromech droid and 3 insurrectionist blasters. 25 items.

 

Gold:

3 Resistance Fighter armor boxes, Koensayr Revolution, Kybuck, Warbot, 3 Underworld Anarchist armor packs, 3 Zakuul Knight Commander packs, Zakuulan luxury sidecar, 2 arbiter lightsabers and a rancor. 16 items.

 

Now, on top of all that, most of us suspect that there are special tiers within the gold, and why not the silver items as well, for example, that it is more likely to get a Resistance Fighter's armor pack than it is to get an Unstable Arbiter's lightsaber, since they seem to be much rarer on most servers. However, there is no proof of this, so we'll let it slide.

 

So, with my guessed chances, proposing that the chances between getting gold items are equal, the chance of you getting an Unstable Arbiter's Lightsaber is 10% chance of getting a gold item divided by the number of gold items, 16. 1,6%. Per roll. 0,1/16=0,016=1,6%. You get 760 rolls, all of them with a 1,6% chance of getting the Arbiter's lightsaber, or 3,2% chance of getting one of them.

 

Now, my maths could be flawed, and I know my percentages are... but at least it is a tiny bit more useful.

[rklontz]

it's unfortunate that items from the CM are necessary to be able to play the game properly.

 

What? I haven't had to purchase anything from the cartel market that was necessary to play the game and I have played since launch.

The only way it could almost be needed is if you were ftp.

[Escarrabutxaques]

That's the most asinine thing I've ever heard.

 

Why? Maybe I explained it wrong, but turns out that anarchist packs aren't that bad from GTN perspective. On average 1 HC gives you ~10m worth of stuff. Strategy packs for example on average had ~4m worth of stuff. So buying them even for 16-20m is still worth it if you are trying to complete collection.

Edited February 25, 2016 by Escarrabutxaques

[slukslaksla]

Has -anyone- gotten one? It was the single reason I bought CC and 3 hypercrates and I was unlucky, but so far, it's looking like everyone else is missing this one as well. It's been so vastly advertised and it's not even in the packs?

 

 

lucky guy, i bought OVER 300 packs total and got not a single saber (not even the dual one that i dont realy care for) drop rate is WAAAAAAY to low on new packs and not only saber... and those dam cubes... dont even know where to start on those...

 

 

 

luckely for me i have a friend that have saber and i already (over time) given lots of milions worth of stuff to him as we making guild and etc. so he gonna trade it to me soon...

[slukslaksla]

lucky guy, i bought OVER 300 packs total and got not a single saber (not even the dual one that i dont realy care for) drop rate is WAAAAAAY to low on new packs and not only saber... and those dam cubes... dont even know where to start on those...

 

 

 

luckely for me i have a friend that have saber and i already (over time) given lots of milions worth of stuff to him as we making guild and etc. so he gonna trade it to me soon...

 

 

still, i knew the risk of buying packs and im still pretty happy of what i got..

[slukslaksla]

Oh, I think I understand what you mean... you are not talking about the chance of getting a certain item, you're talking about how many tries you have of getting it. Which, I believe, no one is even slighty interested in.

 

To know the actual chances of getting said item, you need to know, as you say, the number of rolls you have. Then you also have to know the roll mechanics, what are the propabilities of getting a certain result...let's say, for the point of argument, that the chances are 60% to get a chance cube, 30% to get a silver item, and 10% to get a gold one. These bear no relation to the actual propabilites of course. Now, you need to calculate the amount of silver items, and the amount of gold items...

 

Silver:

There's 3 Darth Skotia boxes, 3 Squadron Commander boxes, 3 Exiled Knight boxes, 3 Merc Slicer boxes, Uxibeast, 4 crystals, Korrealis Marquis, 3 Vibroswords, astromech droid and 3 insurrectionist blasters. 25 items.

 

Gold:

3 Resistance Fighter armor boxes, Koensayr Revolution, Kybuck, Warbot, 3 Underworld Anarchist armor packs, 3 Zakuul Knight Commander packs, Zakuulan luxury sidecar, 2 arbiter lightsabers and a rancor. 16 items.

 

Now, on top of all that, most of us suspect that there are special tiers within the gold, and why not the silver items as well, for example, that it is more likely to get a Resistance Fighter's armor pack than it is to get an Unstable Arbiter's lightsaber, since they seem to be much rarer on most servers. However, there is no proof of this, so we'll let it slide.

 

So, with my guessed chances, proposing that the chances between getting gold items are equal, the chance of you getting an Unstable Arbiter's Lightsaber is 10% chance of getting a gold item divided by the number of gold items, 16. 1,6%. Per roll. 0,1/16=0,016=1,6%. You get 760 rolls, all of them with a 1,6% chance of getting the Arbiter's lightsaber, or 3,2% chance of getting one of them.

 

Now, my maths could be flawed, and I know my percentages are... but at least it is a tiny bit more useful.

 

thing is it rolls between those items every time u open a NEW pack so if its lets say 100 different things to drop (including like bottom armor and a single armor bits like gloves etc) (this an example as im not sure how many total) anyways that means if u got a pack it rolls between 100 (prob more) items every time.. picture a dice whit 100 sides, i wanna land on ONE of them. thats 1 in 100 chance u get ur item. (1% if all drop rates are same) THEN picture that the dice have a lets say 40% EXTRA chance of landing on side 1-60 (wich is normal non rare items) thats means its less than 1 % chance u get the ONE item u want. (this prob wrong as i sux in math but still point is odds are small)

 

add the chance cubes whit also high % chance of drop and u got even smalle odds (and thats for 100 items in pack) imagen how its in the chance cubes that draws from ALL items ever on cm...

 

meaning if u buy LOTS of packs like me it does NOT increase ur chances as it rolls anew every time u click the pack. ofc sometiems stuff got more chance to drop etc but thats (at least in casinos irl) usualy to make u open more.. like u get a cool vobrosword u think.. ohh! im quite lucky lets open some more. and remember unless u realy lucky u will have to buy alot of packs before u get the item u want. in swtor it might be arbiter saber irl its the jackpot. this is one of the reasons the house always wins difference is the saber etc is just lines of code so bioware dont actualy lose it from their "grand invetory of items" like the casinos. in fact they win even more than casinos etc (same in csgo and other games whit packs)

 

 

lastly i LOVEEE swtor and i also LOVEE openig packs no matter what i get. i not replied this to take a dump on bioware as i know they doing a good job i just wanted to make a point as my "facts" probebly are wrong it still makes you think u know? and i know bioware needs money etc and packs is one of their main incomes and again i LOVE bioware and i LOVE swtor just wanted to say this

 

 

Again facts prob wrong i only wanetd to make a point: wich is odds are low so dont buy packs for a single item

[slukslaksla]

thing is it rolls between those items every time u open a NEW pack so if its lets say 100 different things to drop (including like bottom armor and a single armor bits like gloves etc) (this an example as im not sure how many total) anyways that means if u got a pack it rolls between 100 (prob more) items every time.. picture a dice whit 100 sides, i wanna land on ONE of them. thats 1 in 100 chance u get ur item. (1% if all drop rates are same) THEN picture that the dice have a lets say 40% EXTRA chance of landing on side 1-60 (wich is normal non rare items) thats means its less than 1 % chance u get the ONE item u want. (this prob wrong as i sux in math but still point is odds are small)

 

add the chance cubes whit also high % chance of drop and u got even smalle odds (and thats for 100 items in pack) imagen how its in the chance cubes that draws from ALL items ever on cm...

 

meaning if u buy LOTS of packs like me it does NOT increase ur chances as it rolls anew every time u click the pack. ofc sometiems stuff got more chance to drop etc but thats (at least in casinos irl) usualy to make u open more.. like u get a cool vobrosword u think.. ohh! im quite lucky lets open some more. and remember unless u realy lucky u will have to buy alot of packs before u get the item u want. in swtor it might be arbiter saber irl its the jackpot. this is one of the reasons the house always wins difference is the saber etc is just lines of code so bioware dont actualy lose it from their "grand invetory of items" like the casinos. in fact they win even more than casinos etc (same in csgo and other games whit packs)

 

 

lastly i LOVEEE swtor and i also LOVEE openig packs no matter what i get. i not replied this to take a dump on bioware as i know they doing a good job i just wanted to make a point as my "facts" probebly are wrong it still makes you think u know? and i know bioware needs money etc and packs is one of their main incomes and again i LOVE bioware and i LOVE swtor just wanted to say this

 

 

Again facts prob wrong i only wanetd to make a point: wich is odds are low so dont buy packs for a single item

 

so in theory u could open packs FOREVER and NEVER get your one item... though ud have to be REALY unlucky for that, good thing we got gtn though xD

[SteveTheCynic]

Oh, I think I understand what you mean... you are not talking about the chance of getting a certain item, you're talking about how many tries you have of getting it. Which, I believe, no one is even slighty interested in.

0.

Did you read what I was responding to? I guess not. I was responding to someone who said that if the contents are determined at crate-creation time, you get fewer, as you put it, tries at the item than if the contents are determined when the pack is opened. So yes, someone cared about that.

So, with my guessed chances, proposing that the chances between getting gold items are equal, the chance of you getting an Unstable Arbiter's Lightsaber is 10% chance of getting a gold item divided by the number of gold items, 16. 1,6%. Per roll. 0,1/16=0,016=1,6%. You get 760 rolls, all of them with a 1,6% chance of getting the Arbiter's lightsaber, or 3,2% chance of getting one of them.

 

Now, my maths could be flawed, and I know my percentages are... but at least it is a tiny bit more useful.

Your maths are indeed flawed, since 10% divided by 16 is not 1.6%. It's more like 0.625% (And the base chance of gold is more like 5%, so that result goes lower, 0.3125% on each roll.)

 

The maths for determining the chance of getting at least one sabre in a hypercrate are more complicated, and amount to 100% minus the chance of getting none at all. That's 99.6875% raised to the 720 power, or about 10.5% (chance of not getting one), so if there aren't tiers of golds (there are), the chance would be just under 90% for each crate. This is strongly indicative of fairly strong tiers among the golds, since empirically the chance isn't 90% each crate.

 

EDIT: Sorry, that's the chance in 12 crates.

 

For ONE crate, it's about 9%. Without tiers. Which isn't wildly out of line with people's experience.

Edited February 25, 2016 by SteveTheCynic

[ShootMeFirst]

This response is separated from utter gibberish by only the thinnest of margins.

 

So 'utter gibberish' = a factor of 2? jeez... at least I actually tried to show it was more than 12 chances.

[rklontz]

0.

Did you read what I was responding to? I guess not. I was responding to someone who said that if the contents are determined at crate-creation time, you get fewer, as you put it, tries at the item than if the contents are determined when the pack is opened. So yes, someone cared about that.

 

Your maths are indeed flawed, since 10% divided by 16 is not 1.6%. It's more like 0.625% (And the base chance of gold is more like 5%, so that result goes lower, 0.3125% on each roll.)

 

The maths for determining the chance of getting at least one sabre in a hypercrate are more complicated, and amount to 100% minus the chance of getting none at all. That's 99.6875% raised to the 720 power, or about 10.5% (chance of not getting one), so if there aren't tiers of golds (there are), the chance would be just under 90% for each crate. This is strongly indicative of fairly strong tiers among the golds, since empirically the chance isn't 90% each crate.

 

EDIT: Sorry, that's the chance in 12 crates.

 

For ONE crate, it's about 9%. Without tiers. Which isn't wildly out of line with people's experience.

 

You math is incredibly flawed also. If it is a 5% drop rate then it is 5% on the item being clicked on. Every individual roll is 5% It does not matter if you have 10 or 1000.

Edited February 25, 2016 by rklontz

[NermalDetonator]

Oh, I think I understand what you mean... you are not talking about the chance of getting a certain item, you're talking about how many tries you have of getting it. Which, I believe, no one is even slighty interested in.

 

To know the actual chances of getting said item, you need to know, as you say, the number of rolls you have. Then you also have to know the roll mechanics, what are the propabilities of getting a certain result...let's say, for the point of argument, that the chances are 60% to get a chance cube, 30% to get a silver item, and 10% to get a gold one. These bear no relation to the actual propabilites of course. Now, you need to calculate the amount of silver items, and the amount of gold items...

 

Silver:

There's 3 Darth Skotia boxes, 3 Squadron Commander boxes, 3 Exiled Knight boxes, 3 Merc Slicer boxes, Uxibeast, 4 crystals, Korrealis Marquis, 3 Vibroswords, astromech droid and 3 insurrectionist blasters. 25 items.

 

Gold:

3 Resistance Fighter armor boxes, Koensayr Revolution, Kybuck, Warbot, 3 Underworld Anarchist armor packs, 3 Zakuul Knight Commander packs, Zakuulan luxury sidecar, 2 arbiter lightsabers and a rancor. 16 items.

 

Now, on top of all that, most of us suspect that there are special tiers within the gold, and why not the silver items as well, for example, that it is more likely to get a Resistance Fighter's armor pack than it is to get an Unstable Arbiter's lightsaber, since they seem to be much rarer on most servers. However, there is no proof of this, so we'll let it slide.

 

So, with my guessed chances, proposing that the chances between getting gold items are equal, the chance of you getting an Unstable Arbiter's Lightsaber is 10% chance of getting a gold item divided by the number of gold items, 16. 1,6%. Per roll. 0,1/16=0,016=1,6%. You get 760 rolls, all of them with a 1,6% chance of getting the Arbiter's lightsaber, or 3,2% chance of getting one of them.

 

Now, my maths could be flawed, and I know my percentages are... but at least it is a tiny bit more useful.

 

Thanks for breaking it down, though you forgot decorations (luxury spa is gold for example). Its kind of hard to know what decos are in each pack, since they arent in collections for some stupid reason. So the chance is even lower!

[Legolose]

Has -anyone- gotten one? It was the single reason I bought CC and 3 hypercrates and I was unlucky, but so far, it's looking like everyone else is missing this one as well. It's been so vastly advertised and it's not even in the packs?

 

You have a better chance to get hit by lightning while riding a unicycle kissing Lucille Ball than getting a Unstable Lightsaber out of that pack, they have the rate of drop so low that you will not ever get one

 

Are advice is to you is to live and learn from this and don't help BW/EA scam people so basicly what we a suggesting is that you don't buy them again;)

Edited February 25, 2016 by Legolose

[Kyuuu]

its there it just got stupid low rate.

 

Bought 1 hypercrate for 15m got Unstable Arbiter’s Lightsaber in very last pack i opened, so fiqure i try again for Unstable Arbiter’s Lightsaber dualsaber, bought another hpyercrate for 15m got alot of nothing, and those grande cubes are joke lots of junk came out them.

 

so i cut my loses and just bought the Unstable Arbiter’s Lightsaber dualsaber for 7 mill when i saw it. bw/ea probably laughing to the bank with all the people spending 100's dollars each and ever new pack.

[TheSeventhJedi]

You have a better chance to get hit by lightning while riding a unicycle kissing Lucille Ball than getting a Unstable Lightsaber out of that pack, they have the rate of drop so low that you will not ever get one

 

Are advice is to you is to live and learn from this and don't help BW/EA scam people so basicly what we a suggesting is that you don't buy them again;)

 

I don't buy CC - got tons of them from my referral link - but even with four hypercrates, I came up with bupkes. I did manage to sell the contents of the crates and come up with the 38 million I needed to buy one, but still - that's a crazy number.

[Darklighter]

 

The sound effect for it is crap.

[ZanyaCross]

 

The sound effect for it is crap.

 

That's the one thing about it I actually like.

[SteveTheCynic]

You math is incredibly flawed also. If it is a 5% drop rate then it is 5% on the item being clicked on. Every individual roll is 5% It does not matter if you have 10 or 1000.

Correct, it is. That's the chance for one roll to be a gold item. Not for it to be ***>>>> that gold item. That's smaller, obviously, since you have to first get "gold" then choose a gold (no, it isn't necessarily done that way, but for the purposes of having an idea of the chance of a specific gold item, it is more or less equivalent to that).

 

They said above that there are 16 different gold items that you can find in this pack. That means that, if they all have the same chance of happening, that chance is 5% divided by 16, or 0.3125%.

 

That's for one "try". A pack contains two tries, so a hypercrate gets 60 tries. The chance to get at least one of the desired item in a hypercrate is easiest to calculate if you calculate the chance of not getting one at all and subtract that from 100%. Normal probability procedures say that the chance to get none at all in the crate is the chance (of not getting one) per try raised to the Nth power, where N is the number of tries. (Turns out my math was done too hastily in the previous attempt at this.)

 

So the chance of NOT getting the item if you buy one hypercrate is 99.6875% raised to the 60th power, or 82.9%

 

So the change of GETTING (at least) one is 17.1% As I said, I was previously too hasty.

 

For the case of 12 crates, raise to the 720th power (for 720 tries, but the chance on each try doesn't change). Result: 10.5% chance of NOT getting the item if you buy 12 hypercrates.

 

There is some suggestion that there are different "tiers" of golds, with some being rarer than others (Super Rare versus Ultra Rare and all that jazz), so the analysis is more complex, but the principle remains: with only 12 crates, there is a substantial chance (one in ten for uniform per-gold chances) of NOT getting it. For an item that should be very, very uncommon, ultra rare (or rarer still) is reasonable, and that would substantially raise that 10.5% chance of not having it. If the rarer still items are one tenth as likely as shown here, they have roughly an 80% chance of not appearing in a dozen crates.

 

EDIT: note on my first paragraph: "Correct, it is" means my math. It was indeed flawed. (Not in general principles, but in the actual numbers I used. I was more careful this time.)

Edited February 26, 2016 by SteveTheCynic

[richiesilva]

Just saw an alt Mara sporting this saber akimbo style on TRE.

 

And they say Europe's at crisis.

Edited February 26, 2016 by richiesilva

[revcrisis]

How are people finding the drop rate on this in the new Disavowed Pack? For those that don't know, Bioware brought back the sabers for a 2nd time in this new pack that dropped on Tuesday.

[CaveBeast]

I got one in my second hypercrate. Sold it for 50M. It seems I got exceptionally lucky with that RNG...

[NermalDetonator]

Just saw an alt Mara sporting this saber akimbo style on TRE.

 

And they say Europe's at crisis.

 

You realize you only need one to do that, right?

[Darth-Malkaevian]

spent 50$, Never got either, 6 of the same of one Silver Armor set, and 5 of another. Ton of chance cubes, garbage, and no sabor.

 

Will never buy packs again. Bioware needs to list these items for sale by themselves. If everyone boycotts the packs, Bioware will put the items people want on the actual market.

Edited September 22, 2016 by Darth-Malkaevian

[Dbohrius]

The best way to get the new platinum items with real money is to get hyperpacks with CC, then sell them unopened on the GTN for several million credits. Then use the credits to buy the items on the GTN.

[Darth-Malkaevian]

Loot boxes (and items like them that offer a low almost impossible to achieve chance to attain an item) are inherently a classified under international law as "scams". The US is the only country in the world that allows Developers and publishers to sell them. It is an actual criminal action in any other country which will end the studio executives up in jail or prison.

 

This being the case, am I surprised you never got the saber? Absolutely not, It's a scam, what did you think was going to happen?

 

You mine as well have given your money to the robo callers for your cars extended warranty, or the IRS tax break fee. If you buy loot boxes, expecting to get anything of real value that you desire, your an idiot and should not be allowed to manage your own finances as clearly you can not make adult decisions or recognize dangerous pitfalls financially.

 

Just so you know, I am not trying to be mean. In the future if you buy a loot box, do it for the surprise. Not because you think you'll get an item. (Just FYI I am pretty sure this is why Swtor stopped selling them, and now only sell the random item" boxes which are very specific about their content, ie, "Thisbox grants a Silver/gold/copper, Weapon, Armor, Dye, Mount, etc and there are different boxes for each catagory and tier. This is not a lootbox by definition as you are not paying for a "chance" at something you are paying for a random specific item type, of specific quality)

Edited May 9, 2021 by Darth-Malkaevian